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Head for the Hills

…and take all of the gold you can get your hands on!

We have been seeing a lot of stories lately that make us think it is all over for the American dream.  Things going on that are so destructive we would not have believed them possible just a few years ago.  

They are coming thick and fast in this administration – a plague of policies so boneheaded that they must be designed to cripple American prosperity for a very long time to come.  

There is the micro-snooping the Treasury wants to implement.  And the really lethal proposal to tax unrealized capital gains.  

But here is the one that convinces us that the Biden people are serious about turning American into a third-world country.  We want to give credit to the Wall Street on Parade that brought this story to our attention.

President Biden has nominated a woman named Saule Omarova to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal regulator of banks.  Omarova was born in Kazakhstan attended Moscow State University on a Lenin Scholarship.  Now, armed with a Ph.D. and a law degree, Omarova is a professor at Cornell law school.

In writing about Omarova’s policy papers, the Wall Street Journal described her preferences this way: “Ms. Omarova advocates central political control of capital, credit, and wages, and she has praised the Soviet-era economic system.”

gold moves

The Vanderbilt Law Review published a paper by Omarova this month called “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy.”  It proposes to shift all commercial deposits at banks to what she calls “FedAccounts” with the Federal Reserve.  With deposits safely in the Fed’s hands, she proposes that the Fed then be empowered to confiscate the FedAccounts as a tool of monetary policy.  

Her wholesale undoing of private property is only a start.  Omarova further proposes that the New York Fed be enabled to speculate in the stock market, specifically to short stocks that it deems to be in a bubble.  The Fed, she writes, “would conduct regular purchases and sales of a broad range of securities and other tradable financial assets with an explicit view to modulating volatile swings.”

What do you think?  Are they really trying to destroy what is left of the American economy?  Are they just egghead intellectuals dreaming up ideas like this – and like taxing unrealized gains – without any idea of their consequences?  Or are they undoing the economy by design?

What do you think?  And doesn’t it make you want to grab all the gold you can before they are done?

One more thing.  When people note the sheer cluelessness of Omarova’s ideas, she falls back on the current woke excuses.  “I am an easy target,” she says. “An immigrant, a woman, a minority. I don’t look like your typical comptroller of the currency. I have a different history. I am easy to demonize and vilify.”

Right.  Like it’s not her Marxist ideas.

Grab all the gold you can.  These are the people in charge.

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Goodbye Middle Class, Hello Grim Economic Outlook

News you need to know about money and gold

Today’s key stories have to do with how American workers and consumers are doing, and where global inflation is the highest.

The wage statistics just released by the Social Security Administration show that the median wage for 2020 was just $34,612.04.

That means 50 percent of all workers made that or less last year, which prompted economic blogger Michael Snyder to say, “Goodbye middle class.”


Along the same lines, we ran across a story on CNBC with “tips for grocery shopping on a budget now that prices are going up.”  Among the tips: “Buy less meat.”

Gee, thanks.


Here’s a chart showing some of the consumer price changes over the last twelve months:

Stephen Moore, who President Trump nominated to the Federal Reserve Board in 2019, but who withdrew his name from consideration, passed along some numbers about working Americans’ declining earnings.

Median weekly earnings in the third quarter,2021 were $1,003 – just 0.7 percent higher than a year earlier ($996). Inflation was 5.3% over the same period. 

So, Moore writes, after adjusting for inflation workers are losing $50 a week under Biden. 

And that is before adding in the rising costs of gas and groceries. 


Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says inflation is here to stay and that it poses a major threat to the U.S. markets and economy.

On CNBC last week (10/20) Jones said, “I think to me the No. 1 issue facing Main Street investors is inflation, and it’s pretty clear to me that inflation is not transitory.”

Jones said, “It’s probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial markets and I think to society just in general.”


A new CNBC poll finds that 79 percent of respondents judge the economy as just fair or poor.  That’s the most since 2014.  46 percent believe the economy will get worse in the year ahead, the grimmest outlook in the poll’s history. 


And finally, a few words about the gold standard from Ludwig von Mises:

“The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.”

We hope you recognize that the US economy is at a dangerous inflection point.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metal professional to find out more. Don’t forget to pick up a copy of my new book Real Money for Free People at our offices. No cost or obligation.  Just vital information.

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Waiting for the Government to Stop Inflating?

Don’t Hold Your Breath!

“One of the things that surprises citizens in Argentina or Turkey is that their populist governments always talk about the middle classes and helping the poor, yet inflation still soars, making everyone poorer.”

-Daniel Lacalle

So, if you are waiting for the government to stop inflating, you would be wise to park your money in gold and silver while you wait!

After all, if you had a money printing press and could print all you want without legal consequences, would you stop?

Daniel Lacalle

That’s why at one level or another inflation persists under the president of both parties, during Congresses dominated by Republicans and Democrats alike.  They can get away with it, even though it is one of the great flimflams of all time.  They get away with it.  That’s why Federal Reserve chairman like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are appointed and reappointed by presidents of both parties.  Greenspan was originally appointed by Reagan, reappointed by first Clinton, and then again by W. Bush.  Bernanke was appointed first by W, then reappointed by Obama.

Jerome Powell was appointed by Trump.  He had the support of Biden and most Democrats until recently; the oddsmakers thought he would be reappointed at first, but his cluelessness makes him a perfect fall guy for the administration to blame for our rising inflation and other economic difficulties.  That plus the scent of Fed insiders trading fast and loose may even attach to Powell.

But the point is that Washington and the Deep State always have one of their guys in charge of money printing.  That money funds political promises to get office holders reelected.  It funds elective wars.  (And they are elective wars; if they were existential wars, we would not have risked leaving unknown billions of dollars of military hardware behind in Afghanistan!)  And it is the way $30 trillion dollars in unpayable US debt will be devalued over time – ruining what’s left of the dollar and your dollar savings along the way. 

And that is why “no government looking to massively expand its size in the economy and monetize a soaring deficit is going to act against rising prices, despite claiming the opposite,” says Daniel Lacalle.

In a new piece for the free-market Mises Institute, Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It, Lacalle writes,

Inflation does not happen the next day you print money. It is a slow process of gradual erosion of the purchasing power of the currency that started years ago and culminated with the insane decision to implement monster demand-side policies (huge government spending and money printing) in the middle of a lockdown.

But why do governments ignore it? Why do they not act? Surely it is in their best interest to keep prices low and consumers—voters—happy. The answer is simple: because governments are the biggest beneficiaries of inflation. They collect more receipts from indirect taxes and their soaring debt is slowly eroded by inflation.

Furthermore, governments never act against inflation, because they benefit from it and, more importantly, can blame it on everyone except their policies. Even in Argentina, where inflation is higher than 50 percent and ten times higher than in neighboring countries, citizens are slowly convinced that there must be other causes than money printing. Even when presented with the evidence of a central bank that has raised money supply more than 120 percent in two years with diminishing demand, the press and politicians blame inflation on “multicause” effects.

So, the media can cover for the Deep State Money Manipulators.  But it can’t very well hide the rising cost of living you see all around today.  Just remember those rising prices are simply the value of the dollar eroding away. 

And while it erodes, be sure to have your money parked in gold and silver.  Because they don’t erode.

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It’s Yesterday Once More!

What the 1970’s Stagflation Was Really Like!

It was a few small, still voices at first.  Warning that the Federal Reserve was creating another stagflation decade like the 1970s.  It is not yet a chorus, but other voices are joining in, singing that old song:

Just like before

It’s yesterday once more.

Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Asia chair, now at Yale University writes that “Echoes of an earlier, darker period of economic history are growing louder.”

So, what was the Stagflation Decade really like?  The decade really began with a massive devaluation when Nixon abandoned the dollar’s gold backing in 1971.  From that day to this the dollar has been a fiat currency which means it is only money because the government says it is money. 

Here are a few bullet points:

  • The average inflation rate for the 10 years of the decade was 6.85 percent.  Many were unprepared because that was almost three times the average inflation rate of the prior two decades.
  • Like other inflations, price increases throughout the 1970s were uneven across goods and services.  Some would rise rapidly, and others moderately for a time, and then the rates of increase would change as lagging prices played catch-up.
  • Three separate years of the decade experienced double-digit price inflation:  1974, 1979, and 1980.  In the first half of 1980 the Consumer Price Index annual inflation rate rose to 14.8 percent.
  • In a brazen effort to shift responsibility for inflation, which was entirely the State’s doing, to the public, the Ford administration created a public relations campaign centered around the distribution of buttons bearing the word “WIN.”  It stood for “Whip Inflation Now,” as though inflation was something that needed to be fought by the people instead of stopped by the authorities.  Later Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, who was Ford’s head economic advisor, said he thought at the time that he thought it was “unbelievably stupid.”  But he did not say so when it mattered.
  • The stock market lost almost 50 percent of its value in a mere 20 months.
  • Unemployment rose to 9 percent.
  • Oil rose from $3 a barrel to $35 in 1981.

But of course, the big winners of the Stagflation Decade were those who turned to gold and silver for protection from the destructive activities of the Deep State Money Manipulators:

  • Gold began 1971 below $38 an ounce.  Its average price that year was just over that $40 per ounce.  At the end of the Stagflation Decade, in January 1980 it reached $850. 
  • Silver traded in 1971 between a low of $1.30 to a high of $1.80 per ounce.  At the beginning of January1980 it reached $50.

We urge you to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today and take steps to protect yourself from renewed inflation.

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News Nuggets for Gold Investors

$100 OIL?  Markets Insider: 

Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, could surge above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, in the event of another cold winter, according to a note by Bank of America Friday….

Higher oil prices could spark inflation analysts led by Francisco Blanch said.  “Oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world.  Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.”


GOLD FOR WEALTH PRESERVATION!  Alan Greenspan:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value


MORE THAN ECONOMISTS EXPECTED!  Wall Street Journal:

U.S. inflation accelerated last month and remained at its highest rate in over a decade…. The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose by 5.4% from a year earlier. That is the same rate as in June and July as the economy reopened, and slightly higher than in August. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in September climbed 4% from a year earlier.


BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS, SAVE MONEY!  Wall Street Journal:

A winter of giant gas bills is coming.  According to the Energy Information Administration, nearly half of U.S. households that warm their homes with mainly natural gas can expect to spend an average of 30% more on their bills compared with last year.


DID SOMEONE SAY TRANSITORY?  Breitbart.com:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday that inflation is likely to last longer than expected and should no longer be called “transitory.”

Bostic is the first Fed official to so clearly break from the central bank’s leadership on inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell has insisted for months on describing inflation as transitory, although he recently admitted that it could last into next year.


DON’T THINK THERE’S A PROBLEM?  The Daily Mail:

Frustrated shoppers share photos of bare aisles in stores across the country…

Frustrated shoppers complaining about shortages of everyday products in their local stores are attacking President Joe Biden online with the hashtag ‘Empty Shelves Joe’ as the US faces severe supply chain problems that could stretch into the new year. Dozens of cargo ships carrying hundreds of thousands of containers of goods from China and Asia are waiting to dock in California as concern grows about likely Christmas shortages. Some retailers such as Costco and Walmart are limiting sales of toilet paper in some areas and toy company CEOs are telling parents to buy their kids’ Christmas gifts now to avoid disappointment.


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Stag+Flation

The Worst of Both Worlds!

We have warned several times about the return of stagflation to the US, most recently in July.   (See The Mother of All Stagflationary Debt Crises!)

But back then most people seemed to believe the Fed’s insistence that inflation itself was not much to worry about.  It was only a passing phenomenon.  And since stagflation is an economic environment that combines troublesome elements of both stagnation and inflation, or weak on non-existent economic growth, accompanied by rising prices, if the Fed were right about inflation not rising to the level of an actual, you know, economic problem, we couldn’t have stagnation.

But the folks in the marbled halls of the Marriner Eccles building in Washington were wrong again.  (We wonder:  don’t they ever tire of being wrong about almost everything?)  And now, just a few months later inflation is suddenly at a 30 year high, and alarms about stagflation are being sounded far and wide. 

A new report from the World Gold Council, Stagflation rears its ugly head (10/12/21), explains why we call stagflation the worst of both worlds: 

Over the past two months, economic growth has disappointed even as inflation has exceeded expectations. A real risk of stagflationary conditions, with rising costs amid lower growth, appears to be on the cards.

Stagflation, if severe, can be damaging to both the economy and financial markets. But we don’t need a repeat of the 1970s for assets to be affected.  Our analysis shows that even mild stagflationary conditions can have similar asset impacts to those in more severe stagflations.”

Stagflation has historically hit equities hard. Fixed-income returns have been variable, while both commodities and gold have fared well. Gold’s historically strong performance can be attributed to higher inflation and market volatility supporting capital preservation motives, and lower real interest rates supporting both opportunity cost and growth risk motives.

-World Gold Council

Others are commenting on the oil price shocks of the 1970s.  They contributed to stalling business conditions in the stagflation decade.  Now, with inflation undeniable, oil is rising again and has broken above $80 a barrel, the highest price since 2014, which could lend to a slowdown in growth.

Last summer we cited famed NYU economist Nouriel Roubini who says “a +slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable.”  He worries that debt ratios are much higher today than they were in the 70s.  Debt ratios are three times higher than in the stagflation decade.  “The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period,” says Roubini.  “The question is not if but when.”

Thus, the conditions that propelled gold and silver to new highs in the stagflation decade are assembling again.  We recommend our friends and client take steps now to protect themselves in a time-tested way, with a solid portfolio of gold and silver.

Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professionals are available to help you implement a sensible strategy for wealth preservation in inflationary and stagflationary times.

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Real Money for Free People

We want to give you a free signed copy!

Skyrocketing prices, massive new spending programs, debt ceiling puppet shows, money printing, debt up the wazoo!

How did we get here?  Where is all this headed? 

You’ll find the answers to those questions and more in my new book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE!

It tells the entire American gold story in a clear and easy-to-understand way!  And because it is information you need for the challenging times coming our way, I want you to have a copy absolutely free!

REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE is a fast-paced review of why the Founding Fathers, to assure a free and prosperous America, built the new republic on a solid monetary foundation of gold and silver.  Learn how later politicians, those of lesser character, have abandoned that foresight by handing America’s future and prosperity over to self-serving bankers and money manipulators.

In this book, I pull back the curtain to reveal what the mainstream media conceals:  how the unsustainable and reckless policies of the Federal Reserve are destroying the dollar and your savings.

Just stop by Republic Monetary Exchange and let us give you a copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE!

No cost.  No obligation.

You’ll learn exactly why the Founder insisted on gold and silver and even wrote them into the Constitution.  Wait until you read about the time the government stole the people’s gold.  It is one of the great swindles of all time! 

And you won’t want to miss the chapters called Goodbye to Gold and So Long, Silver.  They tell the diabolical story of the way paper money took the place of real money!

Where are we today and how does it all end?  REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE covers that, too, and explains why gold and silver are your best protection from the monetary imbecility and ruination of our time.

We have a free signed copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE waiting for you. Stop by Republic Monetary Exchange at 4040 East Camelback Road in Phoenix, 85018.

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Taking Inflation Seriously!

Watch out for 20% – 25% inflation over the next few years, says Wharton professor!

Leading establishment economists are finally starting to take inflation seriously. 

About time.  Especially since the Federal Reserve has conjured up $4 trillion out of thin air in just the last 18 months.

And it’s pretty hard to deny that inflation has returned, especially for anyone who has visited a grocery store lately.

“Inflation, in general, is going to be a much bigger problem than the Fed believes!” That is according to Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel.  He told CNBC, “We’re headed for some trouble ahead.” 

At a Forbes Top Advisor Summit in Las Vegas just days ago, Siegal projected 20 to 25 percent inflation over the next few years. 

The question has always been when does all the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing money printing enters the consumer economy.  If the Fed prints money and leaves it shrink-wrapped in a basement somewhere, it will not drive consumer price inflation.

But now Siegal says, the Powell Fed’s QE is getting out!

“Quantitative easing is important but if that quantitative easing gets in the money, watch out,” he warned.  “I never predicted inflation from the quantitative easing of [Former Federal Reserve Chair] Ben Bernanke, but I am predicting inflation from the quantitative easing that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve is doing now.”

Siegal says that inflation may play out in the form of five to seven percent annually over the next few years.

Siegel also says that gold is relatively inexpensive.

To economist Stephen Roach it also looks like we are headed into a 1970s-style stagflation. 

“It’s worrisome for the overall economic outlook and raises serious questions about the wisdom of central bank policies — especially that of the Federal Reserve,” said Roach, also on CNBC. 

The inflationary conditions that economists Siegal and Roach are now noticing will drive a stampede of gold buying when it becomes apparent to more average consumers.  That day is drawing close now.  For shoppers, it is impossible to miss higher prices at the grocery store.  The United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization’s index of international prices of commonly traded food commodities showed a big jump in September, up 32.8 percent from September 2020.

That is a big jump!

We strongly advise our friends and clients to add to their gold and silver positions now. 

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Trump Warns That Inflation Will “Ravage” the U.S.

President Trump has issued a stark warning for Americans to take rising inflation seriously.

“It looks to me like inflation is going to ravage our country,” Trump said in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance.

Trump pointed to surging oil prices, now at their highest level since 2014, as evidence of inflation’s return.

“It’s very scary when you look at gasoline from $1.87 a gallon when I was president, it went from $1.87 and now it’s well over $5 that it’s going to go a lot higher,” he said.

Inflation is one of the issues that will figure in his decision whether to run for president again in 2024, said Trump. 

On the same day he was inaugurated, January 20, 2021, President Biden canceled the federal permit for construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

The pipeline was expected to deliver 800,000 barrels per day from Canada to the US.  TC Energy, which runs the pipeline immediately announced the termination of 1,000 jobs. This chart shows the rise of oil prices (the WTIC benchmark price) trending higher through much of 2021.

“What it’s going to be at a year from now, I think is going to be much higher than” current levels, said Trump of future energy prices.

Yahoo Finance will release its full interview with Trump on Monday (10/11/21).

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Oh, That Inflation!

Inflation? What Inflation? Oh, That Inflation!

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell is “frustrated.”   And no wonder.  He has no clue what is going on.

Two of his central bank minions have suddenly resigned amid reports of activities that look like insider trading ducks, walk like an insider trading ducks, and quack like insider trading ducks. 

It actually makes you wonder if they are insider trading ducks.

Meanwhile, and even though he has done everything in his power to manage the US dollar the way leftists like Hugo Chavez and Nicholas Maduro managed Venezuela’s currency, America’s leftists want Biden to replace Powell with an even more extreme inflationista.  Never mind that those are policies that have three out of four Venezuelans living in extreme poverty.

That is not all.  There is that talk from the Chairman about inflation’s transitoriness – well, the poor Chairman (actually because “man” is a dirty word these days, they actually call Powell the “Chair,” like he’s a piece of furniture) has had to walk all that talk back.

And no wonder.  Inflation, according to the Fed’s favorite measure, has reached a 30 year high, “with all signs pointing to price pressure snaking into next year,” writes MarketWatch.

More:

The personal consumption expenditure price index climbed 0.4% in August, the government said Friday. It was the sixth straight big increase.

The rate of inflation in the 12 months ended in August edged up to 4.3% from 4.2% — the highest rate since 1991, when George H.W. Bush was president.

 Until very recently, Federal Reserve leaders insisted inflation would start to fall back to toward pre-pandemic levels of 2% or less by the end of this year.

Yet in the past week, senior central bank leaders acknowledged inflation could remain high well into 2022 because of ongoing shortages of crucial business supplies and even labor.

The Chair says all that inflation is related to “supply constraints meeting very strong demand….  It’s very difficult to say how big those effects will be in the meantime or how long they will last.”

Funny, not a word in the Chair’s remarks about the $4 trillion the Fed has digitally printed in the last 18 months.  This is an ideal time for you to review the steps you have taken to prepare for de-dollarization and rising inflation.  Consult with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

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Watch Silver Demand Grow

Thanks to vital applications in technology and consumer connectivity, expect industrial silver demand to grow ten percent over the next few years.

That is according to the new report, “Silver and Global Connectivity,” published by the Silver Institute, a trade association. 

From the report: “With the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, silver is a component in almost all electronic devices we use daily. But silver isn’t just vital today; the next generation of technological advancements, especially those related to global connectivity expansion, will rely on the white metal’s inherent properties throughout the 21st century.  As a result, the use of silver in electronics and electrical applications (excluding photovoltaics) is forecast to rise from 224 million ounces in 2020 to 246 million ounces in 2025, reflecting a 10 percent increase, underscoring silver’s role in emerging technologies.”

The Internet of Things – basically physical objects like buildings, machines, wearables, traffic control systems, your home appliances and much more – is growing fast.  The interconnectivity it demands depends on silver in circuit boards.

5G communications networks will be responsible for increased silver usage.  “For example, a network carrier, such as AT&T, Telefónica or Vodafone, will reportedly need at least 400 more transmitters in an area compared to current 4G towers.”

Over the next ten years, the report highlights growing silver demand for radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags, which track and monitor goods and inventory. 

The report also highlights burgeoning silver demand in the automotive industry and aviation industries:

  • “Forty percent of a vehicle’s cost is accounted for by electronics, a substantial increase from historical levels: in 1990 this number was just 15 percent.  Silver is used extensively in electrical contacts throughout vehicles’ electronic systems in switches, relays, connectors, breakers, and fuses. Silver is used in automotive glass to defog and defrost the windows…” 
  • “A rapidly growing subsector of the aviation industry for silver demand growth is unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), commonly referred to as drones. Almost 900,000 recreational and commercial UAS (weighing more than 0.55 pounds or 250 grams) are registered with the FAA as of September 2021. These are finding applications within a wide range of industries including construction, fire monitoring, insurance, utility, and law enforcement. For example, telecoms and aviation industries use drones for beyond-visual line-of-sight capabilities. Drones mapping and surveying, and aiding in visual inspections, currently account for the majority of commercial drone applications….”
  • “Connectivity is critical to the successful deployment of drones in all of these commercial activities for the direct control of the drone itself, for the feedback from the drone of any collected data, and for the monitoring of its payload.”

These applications will provide a rising floor under silver prices in the years ahead.  But as our readers know, it is the world’s awakening to silver as a monetary commodity in the developing financial and monetary crisis that we expect will drive the price of silver to unimagined heights.

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Scandal at the Fed!

Is anyone surprised?

Insider trading practices that are rightly being called scandalous have led to the resignations of the presidents of the Federal Reserve banks of Dallas and Boston. 

But they are not among the greatest of the Federal Reserve’s scandals.

Both Eric Rosengren, head of the Boston Fed, and Robert Kaplan head of the Dallas Fed, announced their resignations this week after disclosures of their extensive trading in stocks that were the beneficiaries of Fed interventions. 

It is not the first scandal at the Fed.  And it is certainly not the biggest. According to Ron Paul, that title goes to the Fed for its “impoverishment of ordinary Americans.”

That is the result of inflationary monetary policies, says the former Congressman and presidential candidate:

Rising prices that diminish the average American’s standard of living are not the only result of the Fed’s manipulation of the money supply. The manipulation distorts economic signals, producing results including booms, bubbles, and busts.

Inflation has always benefited the well-connected elites who receive the Fed’s newly created money before the new money causes widespread price increases. The true motivation behind Fed policies was revealed by former Fed official Andrew Huszar in 2013. Huszar, writing for the Wall Street Journal, confirmed that quantitative easing kept stock prices high, instead of helping Americans struggling with the aftereffects of the 2008 meltdown.

Other beneficiaries of the Fed are big-spending politicians. The Federal Reserve’s purchase of federal debt instruments keeps the federal government’s debt servicing costs manageable. This is why, despite Chairman Powell’s recent suggestion that the Fed will soon begin “tapering” its purchases of Treasuries, the Fed is unlikely to significantly reduce its purchase of Treasuries or allow interest rates to significantly increase.

The destruction of 93 percent of the dollar’s purchasing power with these inflationary practices is scandalous enough for one institution.  But another Fed scandal involves risking the solvency of the American people by extending trillions of dollars of credit and loans to favored banks, including foreign banks, during the Panic of 2008.  The Fed became almost militant in seeking to keep these loans concealed from the American people.

Little wonder that Dr. Paul lists Fed secrecy as another major scandal, citing “Congress’ refusal to pass the Audit the Fed bill and let the American people know the truth about the Fed’s operations. Audit the Fed authorizes a Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit of the Fed’s dealing with foreign governments and central banks, the Fed’s discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, and open market transactions. Audit the Fed would finally reveal the truth about the Fed’s operations.”

There are countless potential Fed scandals over its century-plus of existence that will never be fully revealed.  Anyone with inside knowledge of interest rate decisions from the Fed’s Open Market Committee would be in a position to make fortunes in the bond markets.  But you don’t suppose the Fed, or its officials, would ever be doing secret favors for the crony banks that created the Fed to serve its interests in the first place, do you?

Yet a clear leak of insider information in 2012 to a private investor newsletter resulted in an investigation.  Yet after six months of investigating itself, the Fed could not find who leaked the confidential information. 

And by the way, we have White House tapes revealing President Nixon and the chairman of the Fed coordinating Fed policy to help assure Nixon’s reelection in 1972.

The Fed’s history may be thick with criminal malfeasance.  But it should also be beyond dispute that it has established a long track record of policy failures, from the Great Depression and Great Recession to currency destruction and clueless interest rate manipulation. Now it is clear, with Fed official’s cavalier treatment of their ethical obligations and with what in the private sector would be considered insider trading, we would be better off without the Fed.

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Beware the Stock Market Bear!

Warnings about a steep stock market sell-off are piling up.

Morgan Stanley is cautioning its clients about a plunge of more than 20 percent.  CNBC recently surveyed four hundred chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money. Seventy-six percent of the respondents said now is a time to be “very conservative” in the stock market.

Investment legend Jim Rogers is warning now of the worst bear market of his lifetime.   

“Nearly every government,” says Rogers, “every central bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money.  And borrowing and spending huge amounts of money.  It has never happened like this in the history of the world, never in recorded history have we seen so much excess…. Be worried.”

So where to turn during what Roger says will be the worst bear market of his lifetime? 

“Silver – I own silver – is down 60 percent from its all-time highs,” says Rogers.  “Look out the window.  What do we know that is down 60 percent from its all-time highs?” Today much of the investment world is looking at problems in China.  No one can know how the fallout from China’s Evergrande credit crisis will spread.  “These things snowball,” says Rogers.  “They start where we’re not looking.  It may have already started.”

But one need only factor in US problems, a debt ceiling standoff, massive new spending  initiatives, and growth issues, to recognize a dangerous environment for stocks.  More important still is the troublesome return of inflation.  Indeed, another survey, this of clients of Swiss banking giant UBS Group list hyperinflation as their top economic concern.  Gold and silver stand out as go-to refuges in an era of systemic risk, just as they were when the failures of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers brought on the mortgage meltdown and the Great Recession and set gold marching higher for three straight years.

But one need only factor in US problems, a debt ceiling standoff, massive new spending  initiatives, and growth issues, to recognize a dangerous environment for stocks.  More important still is the troublesome return of inflation.  Indeed, another survey, this of clients of Swiss banking giant UBS Group list hyperinflation as their top economic concern.  Gold and silver stand out as go-to refuges in an era of systemic risk, just as they were when the failures of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers brought on the mortgage meltdown and the Great Recession and set gold marching higher for three straight years.

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There is a Lot of Financial Risk Wrapped Up in That Evergrande Burrito!

In China, local government officials are buckling up for what could be a bumpy ride in Evergrande Group’s insolvency.

Evergrande is a Chinese real estate developer that, riding the country’s property bubble, has amassed $305 billion in outstanding debt that it is now unable to service. 

A default of such a gargantuan borrower has the potential of spreading across the land and indeed beyond China.  A substantial amount of the company’s debt is denominated in US dollars.  The damage cascades far and wide when a debtor like Evergrande fails to pay its creditors, who then, in turn, are unable to meet their obligations to other companies, suppliers, and employees, who then fail to meet their own payments.  The failure of Lehman Brothers figured prominently in the housing market collapse that cost millions of Americans their homes just over a decade ago.

The world’s financial markets are much more highly leveraged today than they were in 2008.  And Evergrande is much bigger than.

China’s central party government is calling on local governments and state-owned agencies to be prepared to deal with the fallout from Evergrande’s expected collapse.

Whether such measures will be sufficient to contain the crisis or if it will spread like a Wuhan contagion remains to be seen.  But already, the prospects of depressed real estate development in China have set the price of iron ore tumbling.

The crisis comes on the back of the existing Covid economic stress and the Fed’s new inflation burden. 

A report from Reuters on Evergrande wraps up with a report from typical Chinese workers on its impact.  “At an eerily quiet construction site in eastern China, worker Li Hongjun said Evergrande’s crisis meant he will soon run out of food while Christina Xie, who works in the southern city of Shenzhen, feared Evergrande had swallowed her savings.”

“‘It’s all my savings. I was planning to use it for me and my partner’s old age,’ said Xie. ‘Evergrande is one of China’s biggest real estate companies … my consultant told me the product was guaranteed.’”

Of course, he did.

The only global financial instrument that is not dependent on someone else’s promise or performance is gold.  Physical gold that you own yourself has no counter-party risk.

Gold needs no guarantee.  It guarantees itself. Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

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More Big Brother

No wonder people seek the privacy of owning precious metals!

This is an update to our commentary two weeks ago in which we described the Biden administration’s total financial surveillance as becoming quite serious.

“Not only is Big Brother watching you,” we wrote, “he is also getting bigger every day. “

In its most recent budget proposal, the US Treasury Department has proposed requiring financial institutions to report to it money coming into or going out of accounts of only $600 or more. 

Politifact describes the proposal this way: “If you had at least $600 in your bank account, the bank would be required to report the amounts of any debits or credits to that account to the IRS.  If the debits and credits that flow through the account add up to at least $600 — including deposited paychecks or electronic payments through smartphone apps tied to the account — those totals would have to be reported, too.”

The government already makes intrusive and burdensome demands under the Bank Secrecy Act, including so-called “suspicious persons reports” to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

The IRS has a history of failing to protect private information.  It has a history of data breaches and the illicit use of its records on citizens.  The new rules threaten to expose people to more abuses before its prior abuses have been addressed.

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The State ceaselessly lobbies for wider snooping authority, camouflaging its efforts as something essential to “get drug dealers” and other criminals.  But in practice the measures allow illicit snooping on people who are acting prudently in trying to keep their affairs private in an era of identity theft, widespread account hacking, and data breaches.  Meanwhile, the drug crisis that the measures are said to address simply get bigger each year.  In 2020, US fentanyl deaths jumped 30 percent from the year before, to 93,000, while the border which those drugs enter the country remains porous.

The proposed new measures are another addition to the government’s war on cash, an attempt to have veto power over individual autonomy.  It is another tool in creating a “social credit system” like that in China in which the people are made to acquiesce to actions of the State and in which dissent is quashed.

In addition, the Treasury’s proposal adds substantial burdens on businesses, making them bear the additional expense of endless petty record keeping and reporting.

Yet even as the authorities hope to increase their surveillance of the people, their own ranks grow thick with abuse.  Only recently have we learned that the president of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, with firsthand knowledge of, and hands-on influence over non-public, market-moving policies, was nevertheless speculating to the tune of tens of millions of dollars of individual stocks and highly leveraged financial instruments.

We know as well that Fed chairman Jerome Powell owned the same type of municipal bonds that the Fed was driving higher by purchasing them in the open market.

The stench of cronyism, corruption, and plain, ordinary mismanagement wafts from the decaying monetary system even as it grows more intrusive by the hour. 

No wonder informed people are moving assets out of it and into gold and silver.

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Wobbling Debt Structure

“The most insane accumulation of debt… ever imagined!”

Total world debt is now approaching $300 trillion.  And it continues to grow at a breathtaking pace.

The Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor reports that the world’s wobbly debt structure grew by $4.8 trillion in the second quarter of this year to total $296 trillion.

The report totals government, household, and corporate and bank debt.

There have been almost 50 sovereign nation bond defaults since 2000.  At least a half-dozen countries are in default today. 

As for the US, former Reagan budget director David Stockman says, “They [Federal Reserve policymakers] have fostered the most insane accumulation of debt in all sectors of the US economy ever imagined, even as they have staked their credibility on a lowflation/transitory inflation thesis that is getting blown to smithereens by the day.’

With the world is awash in debt, much of it unpayable, it must be noted that it rests dangerously on a base of very little real liquidity.  Stated differently, the debt structure is like an inverted pyramid, an enormous mass of debt all balancing precariously on a teeny-tiny tip of gold, which is real liquidity, real money.   Be sure you have a base of gold (and silver) to support your financial structure in the tumultuous days ahead.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metal professional to review your portfolio today.

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Notes and Quotes for Gold Investors

Rising Prices, More Gov Borrowing, Illusory Growth, Inadequate Cost of Living Adjustments.  And So It Goes!

“The last 50 years is the first time we’ve seen such a broad upswing in the global price level across multiple countries.”

  • Jim Reid, Chief Credit Strategist, Deutsche Bank

  • “A new CNN poll finds that 74% of U.S. adults now say they are ‘very or somewhat angry’ about the way things are going in the U.S. today — that includes 88% of Republicans, 70% of independents and even 67% of Democrats. But wait, there’s more.

    “Another 69% of U.S. adults now say that things are going ‘pretty or very badly’ in the country these days — that includes 91% of Republicans, 72% of independents and 49% of Democrats.”

  • CNN

  • “Prices of goods online have now risen for an unprecedented 15 consecutive months, following what was a historical period of declines, according to a new report from Adobe Digital Insights.

    “Inflation is hitting categories including pet products, nonprescription drugs, apparel, furniture and flower arrangements, the report said….

    “The price gains are happening during a period that normally sees prices drop, Adobe pointed out in its report. Retailers tend to use heavy promotions to clear out excess merchandise at the end of the summer and to win customer loyalty as they complete their back-to-school shopping.

    “Not this year.”

  • CNBC

  • “Global food prices were up 33% in August from a year earlier with vegetable oil, grains and meat on the rise, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show. And it’s not likely to get better as extreme weather, soaring freight and fertilizer costs, shipping bottlenecks and labor shortages compound the problem. Dwindling foreign currency reserves are also hampering the ability of some nations to import food.

    “Adjusted for inflation and annualized, costs are already higher now than for almost anytime in the past six decades….”

  • Bloomberg

  • “[Any]economic growth we’re seeing isn’t really economic growth. It’s just spending funded by massive amounts of tools and devices The Fed has used.

    “I don’t think the history book will say inflation was transitory.”

  • Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Founder

  • “The United States borrowed over $2.7 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2021, including $173 billion in August….

    “’We’ve borrowed $247 billion per month so far this year,’ said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, ‘a staggering amount that would have previously been unthinkable.’”

  • CRFB

  • ‘Social Security Cost of Living Allowance for 2022 to be Near 5.8%, Could Match 2009, Biggest since 1982.

    “While this type of COLA will provide some relief from the price increases that have been gnawing away at fixed incomes, it will still be insufficient to compensate for the surging costs that individuals may face in housing and other major expenses, depending on their situation and location.”

  • WolfStreet.com

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    Social Insecurity

    Gold or a Government Program that is Headed Towards Insolvency?

    What do you think is more reliable for your retirement?  Gold and silver, which are not dependent on politicians’ empty promises?

    Or the government’s Social Security program?

    If you answered Social Security, here are a couple of things you should consider.

    First, Social Security is only 13 years from insolvency.  The new report from Social Security’s trustees says that the old age and survivor insurance trust fund – that’s the main component of the program – will be insolvent (that’s another world for bankrupt) by 2034.  That is a year earlier than had been expected.

    Second, the money you have paid in all your working life has already been spent.  It is gone.  There is no money in the trust fund.  Your congressmen spent it.  So even if things are jiggered around the edges with later eligibility ages and some means-testing, the problem of Social Security insolvency doesn’t go away.  Congress will have to figure out somewhere to get the money.  But there really is nowhere to get it.  Already the US has an explicit debt nearing $30 trillion.  That debt gets “paid” first. 

    Third, Social Security was always actuarially sketchy.  It was part of the great electoral game of seducing the people with promises that they could live at someone else’s expense.  But the numbers don’t work.  For example, in 1945 there were 41 workers paying into the system for everyone drawing benefits.  Today the load falls heavily on fewer workers per retiree.  There are only 2.7 people expected to pay for one retiree.  Before long it will be only 2 workers per retiree.

    That is only part of the actuarial picture.  Americans live longer and therefore draw retirement benefits longer than they did at the program’s inception.  The life expectancy of a 65-year-old today is 20 more years.  In 1940 it was just 14 years. 

    Roughly 3 million baby boomers retire each year.  And their Social Security is just one of the burdens that they expect Millenials and others to pay.  Medicare is another.

    There is another name for schemes like this, in which paying returns to some investors today depends on bringing in new victims tomorrow. 

    It is a Ponzi scheme.

    There will be an intergenerational war over this.  While the economy is growing by leaps and bounds as it did in the 1950s and 1960s, nobody much notices unfair burden-sharing.  But in an era of shrinking expectations, it becomes social dynamite. 

    Of course, the government’s go-to solution to problems like this is money printing.  But what good is the monthly Social Security check they promised when the price of grocery and heating and cooling your house has gone through the roof?

    We think it is only prudent to face the problems squarely and make sure you provide for your own retirement with money the government can’t just print into worthlessness.

    Let a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional help you chart a course to retirement security with real money.

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    Is Inflation “Transient”?

    Even Establishment Figures Aren’t Buying It!

    Producer prices in the month of July rose 0.7 percent.  Over the past 12 months, producer price have risen 8.3 percent. 

    The Federal Reserve’s insistence that the inflation we are experiencing is merely transient is cracking up on the reefs of widespread disbelief. 

    Even leading establishment economists find it hard to believe. 

    We might ask how inflation can be transient when the Fed is still printing $120 billion a month.  A long time ago Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman pointed out that there was a lag, perhaps 12 – 18 months, between when the new money enters the economy and when it shows up in consumer prices.

    So, today’s higher consumer prices were created a long-time ago, just as we will be experiencing the effects of today’s money printing in higher prices way down the road.

    That hardly sounds like today’s inflation is transient. 

    But even leading establishment figures are having a hard time buying the Fed’s party line.  Most were initially silent, but some are now starting to speak up.

    There are few more establishment figures than Larry Summers.  He is a former World Bank and US Treasury official and senior economic advisor in the Obama administration. 

    Summers recently tweeted this: “Every time you hear that inflation is transitory remember that double house price inflation hasn’t yet shown up in the indexes. Housing represents 40 percent of the core CPI.”

    Translation:  Home and rental prices are about to drive consumer inflation numbers even higher.

    Then there is Ken Rogoff.  He’s a former IMF and Fed economist, now at Harvard.  He has been pointing to the “unsettling parallels,” with the “perfect storm” that produced the high inflation of the 1970s and today’s conditions.

    And Niall Ferguson.  His resume includes the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Harvard, and the London School of Economics.   Ferguson says, ““How long is transitory…?  My sense is that we are not heading for the 1970s, but we could be rerunning the late 1960s, when famously the Fed chair then, McChesney Martin, lost control of inflation expectations.”

    In short, whatever the Fed is selling, they aren’t buying any.  And neither should you!

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    Biden’s Total Financial Surveillance

    It’s starting to get serious!

    We have strongly urged our friends and clients to have some assets off the grid.  See here and here.

    It has always been the prudent thing to do.  But now it is becoming imperative!

    Reason Magazine reports:

    Imagine living in a world where every one of your non-cash financial transactions—a restaurant meal, a Venmo transfer to a friend, maybe some bitcoin bought on the dips—was automatically reported to a beefed-up, audit-hungry IRS.

    That dystopia will become a reality if President Joe Biden gets his way. Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and key Capitol Hill allies such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) are pushing a vast, intrusive financial surveillance system in the name of closing the “tax gap.”

    Here’s a snippet from A Treasury Department press release:  “The Administration’s proposals call for significantly increasing the IRS budget, specifically $80 billion of investment over the coming ten years in enforcement, IT, and taxpayer services generating an estimated $320 billion in additional tax collections over the next ten years.”

    The Treasury is justly concerned that the plan, “The American Families Plan Tax Compliance Agenda,” will drive people to engage in more cash transactions.  That means that the government’s war on cash, already underway, will have to be shifted into overdrive.  As we wrote a year ago, “Cash is anonymous.  So, Washington doesn’t like it.  In fact, you may have noticed that Washington wants full access to everything you do, while it wants everything it does to be secret.”

    Gold and silver are anonymous as well, which is intolerable to authoritarian governments.  We always recommend that people keep assets off the grid, especially in this age of rising crime, large-scale cyber hacking, and snooping big tech firms. 

    More on the Biden plan from Reason:

    The administration’s proposed “comprehensive financial account reporting regime” would dramatically increase the types of financial institutions and transactions exposed to the feds’ prying eyes. “All business and personal accounts from financial institutions, including bank, loan, and investment accounts,” would be forced to “report gross inflows and outflows” to the IRS. And not just bank accounts: The dragnet would now include PayPal, settlement companies, and “crypto-asset exchanges,” for starters.

    The new domestic surveillance program, which requires congressional approval, is one prong of a tripartite strategy for transforming the entire global financial system into a harmonious, haven-free collection funnel to the IRS. The second part, which has taken up the bulk of Biden’s multilateral diplomacy thus far, is getting the industrialized world to agree on a global minimum corporate tax of 15 percent while setting up a system to prevent multinational companies from registering their profits in the lowest-tax jurisdictions.

    Not only is Big Brother watching you, he is also getting bigger every day. It is only prudent to want to protect your privacy in this digital age.  Gold and silver are the single best means of getting your wealth off the grid and away from hackers, identity thieves, and other prying eyes.

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    How to Survive a Crack-Up Boom

    Start with Gold and Silver!

    After witnessing the hyperinflation of the 1920s in Germany and Austria, the great free-market economist Ludwig von Mises coined an evocative term for the last stage of a currency breakdown.

    He called it the Crack-Up Boom.  In German, it is “Katastrophenhausse,” a catastrophe boom.

    US monetary policies ensure that something like a crack-up boom is fast approaching today.  Because we think our friends and clients will need to know, from his work Human Action, here is Mises’ description of the breakdown of a currency:

    The characteristic mark of this phenomenon is that the increase in the quantity of money causes a fall in the demand for money…. The monetary system breaks down; all transactions in the money concerned cease; a panic makes its purchasing power vanish altogether. People return either to barter or to the use of another kind of money.

    The course of a progressing inflation is this: At the beginning the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services, as has been shown, at different dates and to a different extent.

    This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

    gold and silver investments

    But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against “real” goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

    It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

    Recently Ron Paul, a student of Austrian school economics and sound money, dedicated an episode of his Liberty Report to How to Survive a Crack-Up Boom.

    It is a wide-ranging discussion, beyond only the protection of wealth, to include the importance of a community of like-minded people, the challenges of production and provisions, and more.  But for those things that one cannot provide for himself, nothing is more important than purchasing power, says Dr. Paul.

    And that is where we come in.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional before the crack-up boom. Afterward is too late.

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    Are You As Smart As a French Peasant?

    It’s an old expression among people who understand gold: “Are you as smart as a French peasant?”

    Of course, it has its roots in the monetary history of the French who have suffered brutal monetary frauds and inflations, including both the Mississippi Bubble scheme and the Reign of Terror inflation.  The government’s attempt to enforce the acceptance of its increasingly worthless paper currency in the latter period even saw it decree the death penalty for any merchant who, not wanting to be swindled with a worthless currency, even dared ask if a customer was paying with gold and silver or with paper.

    The French suffered destruction inflationary episodes with the world wars of the last century and other episodes of dishonest monetary policies, as well.  

    Little wonder the French – peasants or not – have learned through the generations to keep gold and silver on hand.

    The old expression came to mind just the other day with the news that inflation in France is cranking up again, along with reports that their neighbors in Switzerland and Germany are stepping up their physical gold purchases.  In Switzerland, we learn, it is ordinary people rather than speculators who are behind the new gold buying.

    The great inflation of Germany a century ago is still the stuff of family legends in that country, so with the central banks of the world flooding the globe with digital money printing, it is no surprise to see the recent Bloomberg News headline that says “Inflation-Wary Germans Are Loading Up on Gold.”

    Bloomberg:

    “Demand for physical bullion in Germany, traditionally the biggest coin and bar buyer in Europe, was the highest since at least 2009 in the first half, World Gold Council data show. While purchases in other Western markets have also been strong, Germans, in particular, are pouring into the metal as a hedge against rising inflation — and dealers say business remains good.”

    Meanwhile, central bank gold purchase remained positive in July.  It was the sixth month in a row of net purchases as well, after a few intermittent months of net liquidations during the worst of the Covid lockdowns. Leading the net 30 tons of purchases in July were Brazil, Uzbekistan, India, Turkey, and Russia.

    The lessons that French peasants and German families have learned about the importance of gold and silver will have to be learned again here in the US.  But for those that don’t want to experience that suffering firsthand, Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professionals are available to help you create a sensible plan of monetary protection that suits your needs.

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    Billionaire Roundup

    Today we want to sample some billionaires’ views.  But not just any billionaires. 

    There is no reason to think billionaires are generally wiser or morally superior to other people.  Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg loom large among the billionaire class.  Their opinions about software marketing and social media respectively may be worthwhile.  But there is no reason to think either one has given any serious thought to the fiscal and monetary issues that are important to our clients.

    So, for this roundup, we turn to billionaires who have paid attention professionally to these things.

    First on our list is billionaire Mark Mobius. 

    Mobius retired from Franklin Templeton Funds in 2018 after more than 30 years, where he was executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group.  He is the founder of Mobius Capital Partners.

    Today Mobius recommends that investors buy gold now as protection from the currency devaluation next year that is the inevitable result of rampant central bank money printing.  He recommends one have 10 percent of his portfolio in gold.  He is specific in recommending ownership of physical gold in one’s possession and not gold shares or gold ETFs.

    “It is going to be very, very good to have physical gold that you can access immediately without the danger of the government confiscating all the gold,” Mobius said in a recent Bloomberg News interview.

    “Currency devaluation globally is going to be quite significant next year given the incredible amount of money supply that has been printed,” said Mobius.

    Next is billionaire John Paulson. 

    Paulson heads the investment management firm Paulson & Company and is noted for making one of the biggest fortunes in Wall Street history by spotting the housing and mortgage bubble.  He personally made $4 billion when the bubble popped.

    Paulson believes now is the time to buy gold, which “does well in times of inflation.”

    In times like these, says Paulson, as in the 1970s, there will be an enormous amount of financial assets hungry for a much smaller pool of gold.  “The reason why gold goes parabolic is that basically there’s a very limited amount of investable gold. It’s on the order of several trillion dollars, while the total amount of financial assets is closer to $200 trillion. So as inflation picks up, people try and get out of fixed income. They try and get out of cash. And the logical place to go is gold. But because the amount of money trying to move out of cash and fixed income dwarfs the amount of investable gold, the supply and demand imbalance causes gold to rise.”

    And finally, billionaire Jeremy Grantham.

    Grantham is co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. Wikipedia says that “Grantham has built much of his investing reputation over his long career by claiming to identify speculative market ‘bubbles’ as they were unfolding.”

    Grantham says all the Fed liquidity and the Biden stimulus money are “violating a cardinal rule.”  They are “bubbling” stocks, bonds, and real estate all at the same time.

    He told Reuters recently that “this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It’s as obvious as the nose on your face”

    “A bust might take a few more months, and, in fact, I hope it does, because it will give us the opportunity to warn more people.”

    We hope our friends and clients will take these warnings seriously and take steps to protect themselves and their families.  Big financial events are gathering.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

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    Revealing Headlines!

    Four headlines all in a row on the Drudge Report one day last week tell the whole story of US fiscal and monetary policy today.  It is an alarming line-up that will have informed people moving to profit and protect themselves with gold and silver now!

    INFLATION 30 YEAR HIGH…

    FED KEEPS PUMPING…

    STOCKS HIT MORE RECORDS…

    DEBT NEARS $29 TRILLION…

    Let’s take these headlines one by one:

    1. INFLATION 30 YEAR HIGH… 


    The core personal consumption expenditure price index is the metric that the Federal Reserve prefers to use in its policy decisions.  For July it showed an increase of 3.6 percent over the prior July.  It’s the biggest increase in 30 years!

    If you exclude increases in food and energy, the index rose 4.2% year over year. 

    For the same twelve-month period, through July, the more commonly followed CPI was up 5.4 percent.  The three-month CPI annualized rate, after an 0.6 percent increase in May, 0.9 percent increase in June, and July’s 0.5 percent increase, is 8.1 percent. 

    The headline has it right.  Inflation is high.

    2. FED KEEPS PUMPING…

    Quantitative Easing is a euphemism for the massive money-pumping that began with the bursting of the housing and mortgage bubble in 2008.  It continues today with the Fed printing $120 billion a month.  That’s $1.4 trillion a year in made-up money. 

    The story refers to a speech by Powell intended for an audience of central bankers in which he shot down any expectations that the Fed would halt QE.  Characteristically of Fed chairmen, Powell played fast and loose with reality, suggesting that even when it slows down its money-printing, perhaps later this year, it doesn’t intend to raise interest rates.

    Yet money-printing is precisely how the Fed suppresses rates.  The headline has it right.  The Fed doesn’t want rates to rise, so it will keep pumping.

    3. STOCKS HIT MORE RECORDS…

    This CNBC story, from last Friday (8/27/21), reported that “the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 242.68 points, or 0.6 percent to 35,455.80.  The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent  to hit a new high and closed at 4,509.37. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.2 percent, also hitting a new record during the session, closing at 15,129.50.

    Wall Street knows well that stock averages are floating on a sea of Fed money printing.  That is why it threatens another “taper tantrum” a sharp sell-off if the Fed allows interest rates to rise. 

    But at some point interest rates rise despite the Fed’s efforts – or more precisely because of the Fed’s efforts to hold them down by printing more money.  Famed investor Mark Mobius says to expect currency devaluations next year because of all the central bank money printing.  His advice is for investors to have ten percent of their assets in gold, physical gold, not paper gold substitutes like ETFs.

    4. DEBT NEARS $29 TRILLION…

    This link takes you to the national debt clock which shows the national debt at $28.7 trillion and climbing fast. 

    The Washington uniparty has much bigger debt numbers in our near future, with massive unfunded spending measures advancing at every turn.

    However, the headline is not quite complete.   Follow the link to the national debt clock and you will see that unfunded US liabilities, the portion of the debt that is off the books, like Medicare and Social Security liabilities, are a staggering $156 trillion dollars.

    The four stories paint an accurate picture of the US today:  Inflation is high, ultimately robbing your dollar savings and dollar investments of purchasing power.  This happens because Washington spends money it doesn’t have, the Fed prints dollars to help the Treasury fund the debt, stovepiping the money first to Wall Street cronies.  Meanwhile the debt reflects out insolvency along the way. It’s a vicious circle.  The best way to avoid the dizzying madness is to step out of the game by converting ill-fated dollars to gold and silver. 

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    A Wrecking Ball

    …Coming Soon to an Economy Near You!

    Washington is a clown car full of geniuses who are now trying to remake the American economy. 

    From top to bottom.  And they are not even trying to conceal it.

    The New York Times, the house organ of the new socialist America, is explicit.  An 8/26/2021 story is brashly headlined “Remaking the economy.” It reports that Biden’s agenda is on track:

    House Democrats resolved a procedural spat this week, and they and Senate Democrats are now turning to the substantive work of putting together a sprawling bill meant to slow climate change, reduce poverty and expand pre-K, college financial aid and Medicare benefits.

    The package represents Biden’s most ambitious attempt to reshape the American economy — more so than either the large infrastructure bill also making its way through Congress or the pandemic-relief law that Biden signed in March. The newest bill is likely to be larger and longer lasting, and would affect many aspects of daily life, like education, health care and perhaps even the weather.

    Seriously, would you let the master planner of the Afghanistan exit “reshape the American economy”?

    Parts of the master plan, according to the Times:

    • Subsidizing the use of solar, wind, nuclear and other forms of clean energy while financially penalizing the use of dirty energy like coal (Solyndra, anyone?).
    • Help families pay for electric cars and energy-efficient homes. 
    • Medicare would expand to include dental, hearing and vision coverage for Americans over 65.
    • Make prekindergarten available to every 3- and 4-year-old, likely by subsidizing the state programs that more than half of them already attend. The federal government would also try to make community college universal, by expanding financial aid to cover both tuition and living expenses.
    • A national program of paid leave — worth up to $4,000 a month — for workers who take time off because they’re ill or caring for a relative.
    • Subsidies for child care.

    It’s a total remake of the once most powerful engine of prosperity the world has ever known

    It’s an overhaul only Hugo Chavez could love.

    It’s a renewal in the US of the economics of East Germany, and the Soviet Union.  Of North Korea, Venezuela.

    Seriously, how many time does the world have to let the socialist wrecking ball do its work?

    The US government doesn’t have the money to pay for any of this stuff.  But that won’t stop it.  Afterall, it didn’t have the trillions of dollars in flushed down the Afghan rathole.  So, when it doesn’t have the money, what does it do?

    All together now:

    “IT PRINTS THE MONEY!”

    Eventually, the exit from the dollar will look like the exit from Kabul.  Don’t wait around thinking you can be the last person out.  Protect yourself now with gold and silver. To find out more, speak with one of Republic Monetary Exchange’s precious metals specialists.

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    Toppling King Dollar: The Afghan Lesson

    We have written many times about the impact on you – and on supercharging gold prices – as the dollar loses it privileged position as the world’s reserve currency.  See here, here, and here.

    But we have never stated the case quite a dramatically as was done by Erik Prince on Tucker Carlson’s show this week for a conversation about the impact of the White House’s bungling on Afghanistan.

    Prince is a former Navy Seal and a founder of the private security firm Blackwater.  Blackwater was the recipient of billions of dollars of US government security contracts from the CIA, the Pentagon, and the State Department from 1997 to 2010.

    Carlson said Prince is “one of the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject of Afghanistan”.

    This Afghan calamity spells the end of NATO said Prince.  Forget about Democrats complaining about Trump damaging NATO.  “This will destroy what’s left of NATO,” he said, pointing to the cluelessness and unilateralism of US actions that have seen the US rebuked in Parliament for the first time ever.

    “We have shattered the confidence of our European allies and every other ally around the world.” 

    The international privilege that the dollar enjoys is co-extensive with the US empire, so Prince’s observations about NATO were only an entree to his observations about the dollar. 

    “The dollar is the world’s reserve currency,” said Prince, “because it is underpinned by the notion of US military strength….”

    “We deficit spend and we can keep doing that since we can just print more and more dollars.  As Pax Americana goes away, and people don’t have confidence in the dollar, it has massive trickle-down implications to our economy and to our way of life.”

    It will mean the abolition of the welfare state, Prince predicted, “Massive, massive changes, far greater convulsions than the Great Depression or any other civil unrest we have had in America.”

    We have identified the ending of the dollar’s reserve currency status and the corollary move of foreign central banks to converts reserve assets to gold, as the most important monetary mega-trend of our times.

    The suddenness of Afghanistan’s collapse reminds us of Ernest Hemingway’s observation that bankruptcy happens in two ways.  “Gradually, then suddenly.”

    Don’t wait for “suddenly” to take steps to protect yourself and your assets with gold and silver.

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    Prices Keep Heading Higher!

    Less Bang for Your Buck

    Rapidly rising prices are hitting Americans hard. 

    A recent Fox News poll reveals that 83 percent of Americans are now “very” or “extremely” concerned about inflation. 

    That concern is not just theoretical.  Rising grocery prices are already causing financial hardship for 70 percent of voters.  29 percent say their families are experiencing “serious” hardship.

    Concern cuts across party lines, with inflation topping the list of concerns among both Democrats (80 percent) and Republicans (88 percent). The hardships are not limited to rising grocery prices, according to the Fox national poll.  “The pocketbook pain is the same for gas prices, currently averaging $3 a gallon nationally, with 68 percent saying it is a hardship.  That includes 29 percent who say it is a “serious” hardship.  Some 57 percent call increases in health care costs a hardship and 45 percent say the same about mortgage/rent.”

    Are more price increases ahead?  Supply chain confusion and policies that pay workers not to work are cast a shadow ahead.  A Zero Hedge story with the headline “Largest US Food Distributor Having Trouble Keeping Shelves Stocked; Price Shock Imminent,” says that “food inflation is about to soar.” 

    “The company [Sysco] said prices for key goods such as chicken, pork, and paper products for takeout packaging are climbing amid tight supplies. In particular, production has slowed for high-demand, labor-intensive cuts like bacon, ribs, wings, and tenders, Sysco said. And if intermediate and final wholesale prices are ‘rising’, just wait until they emerge on the consumer side.”

    Employers having difficulty attracting workers will pass higher pay along in the form of higher consumer prices.  In Britain, the Sun reports that supermarket executives are warning of shortages in food supplies for Christmas:

    “Poultry farmers warned they cannot get enough staff and will produce 20% fewer turkeys this Christmas.

    “Vegetable farmers face problems too. They are short of workers to pick produce and also face higher costs to pack cabbage, broccoli, and sprouts plus longer delivery times due to a lack of drivers.”

    Meanwhile, “shrinkflation,” marketing goods in smaller packages to conceal price increases, is spreading. 

    The website Mouse Print reports these examples:

    • Bounty paper towels:
      Triple rolls of Bounty paper towels lost 18 sheets per roll going from 165 sheets to just 147.
    • Costco’s toilet paper:
      The new roll went from 425 sheets down to 380 sheets, a total loss of over three rolls in each package.
    • Dial Body Wash:
      Bottles recently lost almost 25% of the contents, going from 21 ounces to only 16, a 25 percent reduction.
    • Ziploc freezer bags:
      From 54 bags last year, the packages are now just 50 bags. this year.
    • Quaker Instant Oatmeal:
      Some varieties have shrunk from 10 packs last year, to just 8 this year.

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    What Ronald Regan Told Ron Paul About Gold!

    You’ve got to love Ron Paul!  There simply hasn’t been a national political figure like him! 

    A couple of examples:

    When Dr. Paul was running for president, someone (probably an opposition candidate) discovered that some purportedly disreputable fellow had made a contribution to his campaign.  If you follow politics, you know the standard political playbook says the candidate must apologize profusely and then return the money.

    When confronted with the facts of this donation, a reporter asked the expected question:  Are you going to send the money back?

    “No, I’m not.”  said Dr. Paul.  “You just told me he’s an unsavory character.  Why should I return the money?  He might use it for an unsavory purpose, while I’m going to use the money to advance the message of freedom.”

    The reporters all sputtered and fumed.  They don’t like getting the “wrong” answer!

    We remembered another moment this week when we saw the report that 61 percent of Americans paid no income taxes in 2020.  A similar story appeared during his presidential campaign, which reporters brought to Dr. Paul’s attention.  They posed the issue about people with a zero percent tax rate in the expected way:  shouldn’t they be made to pay? 

    But Ron Paul said, “I won’t rest until everybody is taxed at that same rate.”

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    Ron Paul

    We don’t remember if he mentioned that the country got along just fine – in fact had some of its most impressive growth – before the income tax first appeared in 1913.

    You know of course that we are sharing these tales because we want to get to gold, in this case something Dr. Paul wrote the other day about gold. 

    It is an editorial piece in the New York Sun called “The Secret Ronald Reagan Told Me About Gold and Great Nations.” It marked the US abandoning the gold standard 50 years ago this month.  

    Congressman Paul writes, “America’s experiment with fiat has led to an explosion of consumer, business, and — especially — government debt. It has also caused increasing economic inequality, a boom-bubble-bust business cycle, and a continued erosion of the dollar’s value.”

    Dr. Paul reveals, “Ronald Reagan once told me that no nation has abandoned gold and remained great.”

    “Fifty years after Nixon closed the gold window, prices are heading toward 1970s-era increases. Yet the Fed cannot increase interest rates as long as the politicians keep creating billions of new debts.

    “It is clear that America is heading toward another Federal Reserve-created economic crisis. The good news is the impending crisis gives us an opportunity to spread our message, grow our movement, and finally force Congress to audit and end the Fed.”

    The founders intended that America would operate on a reliable monetary system based on gold and silver.  The intended for Constitutional provisions to safeguard your money.  But that all ended 50 years ago.

    Now you have to safeguard your money and protect your wealth and your family for yourself.  The system is not going to protect you. 

    But we can help.  We are gold and silver specialists.  Call or stop by Republic Monetary Exchange to learn more.  There is no obligation.

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    Even More Gold News and Nuggets

    Hi-Tech Billionaire’s Company Buys $50 million in Gold Bars!

    Concerned about a coming unexpected, high-impact event, “a black swan,” Palantir Technologies, a  software company co-founded by billionaire Peter Thiel, purchased $50.7 million in 100 ounce gold bars.

    Thiel is a forward-looking entrepreneur.  He was an early investor in Facebook and a co-founder of PayPal. 

    Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale created a stir recently when he said that “idiots are running the Fed.”  Chief Operating Officer Shyam Sankar said the move to gold “reflects more of a worldview…. You have to be prepared for a future with more black swan events.”

    The company also announced that it intended to accept payment in gold and cryptocurrencies. 

    Palantir’s gold bars are stored at an undisclosed vault.

    Soaring Food Prices – A Global Phenomenon

    Families far and wide are being forced to scrimp at the dinner table thanks to rapidly rising food prices.

    Trillions of US Dollars. Does not include People’s Bank of China.

    Global food prices in July were up 31 percent from the same month a year earlier according to UN reports.  A Bloomberg News story says, “Whether at supermarkets, corner stores, or open-air markets, prices for food have been surging in much of the world, forcing families to make tough decisions about their diets. Meat is often the first to go, ceding space to less expensive proteins such as dairy, eggs, or beans. In some households, a glass of milk has become a luxury reserved only for children; fresh fruit, once deemed a necessity, is now a treat.”

    Just the four largest central banks, the US Fed, the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Japan and China, have inflated their balance sheets from $4.9 trillion to $29.3 trillion since 2007. 

    How difficult is it to understand that when the major central banks of the world have digitally printed $24 trillion dollars worth of money backed by nothing, that prices would go up?

    No wonder government likes to report on so-called “core inflation” which excludes the rising prices in food and energy.  After all, who would rely on food or energy to sustain life?


    Republic Monetary Exchange Pop Quiz

    See if you can guess who said the following: 

    “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse in 11 days”

    Was it:

    (A) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Miley, speaking in August 2021 about the collapse of Afghanistan?

    -Or-

    (B) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking in November 2021 about the collapse of the stock market?

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    Who Are These People?

    How Different is 20 Years of Afghanistan from 13 Years of Quantitative Easing?

    WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?  The Deep State geniuses behind our foreign and monetary policies?

    It was reported that just days before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, President Bush knew nothing about Sunnis and Shia.  “I thought Iraqis were all Moslems,” said the president according to a US ambassador.

    Now a correspondent wonders whether the people making all the decisions about Afghanistan over the past 20 years know the difference between a Pashtun and a Tajik?  Or going a step further, how much do members of our permanent foreign policy establishment know about the history that gives Afghanistan its name as “the graveyard of empires?”  About Alexander on his way to India, the British experience, the Soviet’s misadventure, and now America’s calamity?

    We prefer to leave these questions unanswered.  Our specialty is money, and it is all any one person can do to keep up with the authorities’ malperformance on that front.  But it does have us wondering: 

    Are the Deep State authors of monetary policy any more competent than those who gave us decades of the Afghan money pit? 

    We don’t see any reason to think so.  Just as they foreign policy mandarins have littered the trail with costly regime change wars that end badly (for us), the money manipulators have left behind the wreckage of one financial bubble after another:  the dot com bubble, the housing bubble most memorable among them.

    Now we have another bubble, one fueled by trillions of dollars of made-up money, reaching its inevitable end.  And true to form, the later this bubble’s hour, the more frantic the bubble blowers become.  Never mind that US debt, now $28.5 trillion, has grown by an incredible $5 trillion in just the last 17 months, there is more spending where that comes from.

    There is the $3.5 trillion Jobs Act.  And the budget resolution measure.  And the biggest bump in food stamp spending in history, a 27 percent jump for 42 million Americans.  And all this inflation lately means a Cost-of-Living jump in Social Security payments right around the corner; 69 million people receive Social Security benefits.

    Where will all that money come from?  The US government is already borrowing $2 million a minute!  And who is it borrowing most of that money from these days?  The Federal Reserve.  And where does the Fed get the money it lends the government?

    You know the answer.

    We’re in a mess.  You must take steps to protect yourself and your family with gold and silver. Don’t wait for a C-17 transport plane to lift you off the tarmac when the fiat money game is over.  Or for a helicopter to lift you off the roof when the next bubble pops.

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    When Gold and the Dollar Parted Ways, Part II

    Looking for Part I? Click Here.

    It was a fateful decision fifty years ago today, one that spelled a slow unwinding of the US dollar’s value and undermined America’s unique financial position in the affairs of the world.

    That it has taken fifty years is a testament to the might that America’s free economy had achieved on an honest monetary standard.  But as we have pointed out, America’s productive engine has slowed and almost stalled since the dollar parted ways with gold on August 15, 1971.  To be specific, for the two decades prior to Nixon’s severing the last link of the dollar to gold, US productivity was growing at an average of 3.72 percent a year.

    Now, in the binge money printing era of 2007 – 2020, growth has slowed to only about a third that rate, to a mere 1.28 percent per year.

    This chart further illustrates the damage done by abandoning gold.  It shows fifty years of the collapsing purchasing power of the dollar and 50 years of rising gold prices.

    We think the day deserves to be marked as a black-letter day in America.  Here are some other observations about this date fifty years ago today.

    Thorsten Polleit, the Degussa Report:

    The monetary system in the world was fundamentally changed in one fell swoop. In fact, all currencies became non-redeemable paper money, or: “fiat money,” money that can be increased in any amount deemed politically desirable at any moment in time. The preferred method of producing new fiat money is through credit expansion on the part of central banks and commercial banks. Unsurprisingly, chronic inflation came with fiat money: the phenomenon that the prices of goods and services keep rising over time. 

    What is more, the issuing of fiat money through bank lending causes recurring waves of speculation, bubbles, and financial and economic crises. Most notorious are the so-called “boom and bust cycles.”

    David Stockman, Stockman’s Contra Corner:

    It is perhaps fitting that on the 50th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s dirty deed in August 1971, the US Senate saw fit to pass a budget resolution that will add $3.5 trillion of additional girth to the nation’s already bloated and unaffordable Welfare State.

    William L. Anderson, The Mises Institute:

    The collapse of the monetary order in 1971 reflected the massive dislocations and malinvestment of resources that ultimately turned the decade into one crisis after another, and the current economy is facing risks of even greater magnitude. Unfortunately, Keynesians rule the day, just as they did fifty years ago. As Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand wrote of the Bourbons in the years after the French Revolution, “They learned nothing, and they forgot nothing.” One can say the same for the Keynesians. A half-century after The Crisis, Keynesians seem hellbent on creating new crises and printing money to “fix” them.

    Steven Forbes, The New York Sun:

    We are still suffering today from the baleful consequences of August 15, 1971, when President Nixon ended the convertibility of United States dollars into gold.

    If after that fateful day the United States had maintained the average rate of economic growth that it had achieved over the previous 180 years, when it operated under a gold standard, the economy would be at least 50% larger than it is today.

    Ponder that for a moment. The median, pre-pandemic American household income in 2019 would have been $100,000, not the actual $66,000.


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    When Gold and the Dollar Parted Ways

    50 Years Ago this Week!

    Gold moved out 50 years ago this week.  

    That is when the paper dollar moved front and center in the US economy on August 15, 1971.  

    Of course, Americans had paper dollars before that date.  But nobody assumed that some fancy linen stock, engraved scrollwork, and official signatures gave that paper its value.  The paper dollars were only warehouse receipts or claim checks for gold. The value was in gold. The paper claim notes were only a convenience.

    America’s gold standard had been under attack before 1971. President Franklin Roosevelt had made American’s ownership of monetary gold a felony decades before.  Imagine that:  you could be imprisoned for owning gold.

    But at least foreigners could redeem their paper dollars for gold. Well, at least there was a pretense that they could, although in practical terms they really could not.  They would wait in long lines to press their claims, often in vain.  A few days before August 15, fifty years ago, the British ambassador showed up at the Treasury Department to convert $3 billion in paper to gold. Of course, it was a futile effort. There was not enough gold to redeem all the dollars that the US had printed.

    Days later, on August 15, President Nixon slammed the gold window shut, severing the last link of the dollar to gold.

    That means that there was not even any remaining pretense that paper dollars had any objective value.  The dollar, quips James Grant, is now as good as paper.

    As crazed as was the money-printing and deficit spending that followed in the 1970s, it is nothing compared to today’s money printing and deficit spending.  

    Over the fifty years since Nixon’s act, the value of the dollar is down precipitously.  The US national debt was less than a half-trillion dollars.  In fact, it was only $400 billion. Today it is closing in on $29 trillion.  The national debt under the gold standard was only about a third of US GDP. Today it is 120 percent of GDP.  

    Freed from the enforced discipline of the gold standard, dollars will eventually be printed into worthlessness. That is the fate of paper money.  When asked how many paper currencies have failed throughout history, we like to answer all of them.  Those that are still in circulation today are zombies, the living dead.

    The dollar and its value have been unwinding for fifty years. As Hemingway wrote, about going bankrupt, it starts out gradually and then happens suddenly.  We think it is important for you to protect yourself as the dollar – in its present incarnation – races to its grave.

    The debt skyrockets. The digital dollar printing screams ahead. And inflation is rearing its ugly head. Do not wait for higher prices.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional and take advantage of today’s precious metals buying opportunity.

    > > Continue to Read Part II of “When Gold and the Dollar Parted Ways”

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    Curious Notes for Gold Investors from our Notebook

    Inflation, Anyone?

    The official inflation numbers for July continue to show persistently climbing consumer prices.  The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July.  

    For the twelve-month period, the CPI was up 5.4 percent.  The three-month annualized rate, after 0.6 percent increase in May, 0.9 percent increase in June, and July’s 0.5 percent increase, is 8.1 percent.  

    The so-called core price index which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.3 percent in July.  

    Big Spending, Anyone?

    The US Senate looks increasingly like the Roman Senate during that empire’s last days.

    JusttheNews.com reports that the Democrat-led Senate approved more than $4 trillion of spending in less than 24 hours between the mornings of Tuesday (8/10) and Wednesday (8/11).

    “The Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which includes $517 billion in new spending and a reauthorization of funding from the highway bill, at 11:17am on Tuesday. 

    “The Senate moved to debate on the Democrats’ filibuster-proof $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation proposal. The framework for the plan authorizing that level of federal spending passed in a 50-49 vote early Wednesday morning at 3:50am.”

    The Roman Emperor Caligula is said to have made his favorite horse a senator.  Our senators lack even horse sense.

    Gut Check, Anyone?

    The US government is borrowing at the rate of $2 million a minute.

    A Sign of Inflationary Times, Anyone?

    We frankly admit it is something we had never thought of, and it is not among our biggest concerns, but now we wonder if inflation will kill the dollar stores?

    A Deutsche Bank equities analyst has downgraded the stock of dollar store chain Dollar Tree.  After all, what happens to a dollar store’s marketing position when inflationary pressure cause goods to break the buck?  

    “Accelerating cost pressures… particularly in light of the Dollar Tree banner’s fixed $1 price point… limits its ability to absorb higher costs through price increases, putting margins at risk.”

    We suppose the dollar store will go the way of the ten cent stores of yesteryear.  And the nickel candy bar.

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    Thoughtful Observations About Inflation

    “Dollar’s Purchasing Power Gets Zapped. And It’s Permanent!”

    Wolf Richter from WolfStreet.com point out that the Fed’s “transitory” inflation claim is a joke”

    “Inflation means that the dollar loses its purchasing power. It means that labor loses its purchasing power. In other words, people have to work more the maintain their standard of living. Or people can work the same and cut their standard of living.

    “And people who get performance-based pay raises, and think that this greater performance is going to allow them to raise their standard of living, they find out that all or much of that performance pay raise just allowed them to keep up with the loss of the purchasing power of their labor dollar.

    “There’s another way, the Federal Reserve’s preferred way. This inflation is not an accident. The Fed was the primary engineer of this inflation with its policies, dominated by the biggest money-printing event in modern times and by 0% interest rates. Now the Fed wants people to make up for the loss of purchasing power of their labor by borrowing more.

    “The Fed keeps insisting over and over again that this inflation that it is largely responsible for is “temporary” or “transient.” But there is nothing temporary or transient in the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar, including of the labor dollar.

    “These prices of consumer goods and services that have jumped aren’t going back to where they were two years ago.”


    “Reliable, meaningful, dependable.”  Sounds like she’s talking about gold!

    Economist Judy Shelton is a senior fellow at the Independent Institute and author of “Money Meltdown.”   She has urged a role for gold in our monetary system.  Here are comments from a recent piece in the New York Sun:

    “Money is meant to be a reliable measure, a meaningful unit of account, and a dependable store of value. When those qualities are undermined — especially by government — for purposes of redirecting economic outcomes at the risk of global financial instability, the dynamism and productive potential of free-market forces is diminished.”


    Freudian slip (or Jungian Lapse)?

    Michael Shedlock is among those who caught the Fed chairman in an embarrassing and revealing slip:

    “In a news conference following last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell inadvertently admitted “Inflation is half our mandate.” 

    “He quickly corrected that to ‘Price stability is half our mandate.’  

    “The second statement is factually correct but in practice the Fed follows Powell’s first statement.”


    Sen. Manchin (D-WV) worries about inflation, writes the Fed chairman! 

    “With the recession over and our strong economic recovery well underway, I am increasingly alarmed that the Fed continues to inject record amounts of stimulus into our economy by continuing an emergency level of quantitative easing (QE) with asset purchases of $120 billion per month of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.

    “The Fed has sustained $120 billion per month in asset purchases since June 2020, despite increasing vaccination rates to combat the virus and additional fiscal stimulus from Congress in the ARP.

    “The record amount of stimulus in the economy has led to the most inflation momentum in 30 years, and our economy has not even fully reopened yet.”


    Inflation Invites Danger!

    From newsletter writer Bill Bonner:

    Describing inflation as ‘just another tax’ is like saying an intentional famine is ‘just another diet program.’ Like other taxes, inflation takes wealth from some and gives it to others. But it is often fatal to the civil society that produces it.

    “How can you run a business when your costs change almost daily… and you have no idea what your receipts will be worth? How can you plan for retirement? How can you save money or make wealth-creating, long-term investments?

    “You can’t. As it runs its course, inflation staggers and discombobulates an economy. Eventually, though still not understanding how they are being ripped off, people get sick of it… and they welcome scoundrels in uniform who promise stability.”


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    The Big Flim-Flam!

    The body of work of George C. Scott, who won an Oscar for his unforgettable portrayal of World War II General George Patton included films like Anatomy of a Murder and Dr. Strangelove.   

    Less well known is his starring role a few years before in a film called The Flim-Flam Man, a comedy about a con man who traveled the southern states running scams and fleecing the wide-eyed innocents.

    Although some of his schemes are quite brazen, nothing in the world is quite as audacious as what governments get away with in their money manipulation.

    Today the news brings the announcement that on October 1, Venezuela will cut six zeroes off its currency the bolivar.  

    “All monetary amounts expressed in national currency will be divided by one million,” the central bank announced.  That is a time-tested flim-flam: governments print so much money that the currency becomes virtually worthless, so they lop off a bunch of zeroes on the denominations, and issue a new currency, one that they will eventually print into worthlessness all over again. 

    So, if you have a one million bolivar bill, it will be replaced by a new one bolivar bill. That is a common government flim-flam, an attempt to disguise their intentional currency destruction.  

    But let us describe the monetary flim-flam the goes on today here in the US.  

    The government borrows money by selling bonds.  This is what really happens.  Since Covid, Washington has borrowed and spent trillions of dollars by selling bonds.  But who buys those bonds?  

    The Federal Reserve bought most of them.  Since Covid, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve has purchased 76.4 percent of all those US bonds.

    But wait a minute!  Where did the Fed get the trillions of dollars to buy all those US government bonds?

    Simple.  It just printed the money.  Digitally, of course, but it made the money up out of nothing.  Dollars that did not exist in the morning were created out of nothing but a digital bookkeeping entry in the afternoon.

    That is a flim-flam so audacious that Hollywood probably would not even put it in a movie.  But that is how inflation is created, and how the purchasing power of the dollar is destroyed over time.  

    The Fed and its crony banksters deserve an academy award for selling this racket to the wide-eyed American people.  

    As for the few that can see through governments’ monetary con games, they protect themselves by investing in gold and silver.  Since gold and silver are honest money, con men and flim-flam artists always hate them.

    Protect yourself.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals specialist today.

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    US Debt

    More Dollar Debt

    The US national debt ceiling, suspended by Congress two years ago, kicked back in on July 31.  That left federal debt capped at the current $28.5 trillion level.

    The Treasury will employ a full suite of measures, moving money around and borrowing from account to account, to avoid default for now.  It can use accounting manipulations until October or November, but in the meantime, the US Treasury is prohibited from issuing more debt and borrowing until the statutory debt ceiling is raised.

    The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget writes that the debt ceiling has been modified almost a hundred times since the end of World War II:

    During the 1980s, the debt ceiling was increased from less than $1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion. Over the course of the 1990s, it was doubled to nearly $6 trillion, and in the 2000s it was again doubled to over $12 trillion. The Budget Control Act of 2011 automatically raised the debt ceiling by $900 billion and gave the President authority to increase the limit by an additional $1.2 trillion (for a total of $2.1 trillion) to $16.39 trillion. Lawmakers have suspended the debt limit seven times since February 2013. The most recent suspension began on August 2, 2019, and will end on July 31, 2021.

    One of Washington’s oldest tricks is to use the debate about raising the debt ceiling to bloviate about fiscal responsibility.  Measure that we are told will reign in the exploding debt down the road are loudly trumpeted, but it is generally just sound and fury signifying nothing, and the debt continues to grow year after year.

    Now the rate of increase in the debt has accelerated.

    Debt addiction isn’t limited to Washington.  US consumer debt has climbed to $15 trillion.

    The biggest borrowers always seen to believe that there will never be a day of reckoning.

    But the gold market is not so easily fooled.  We believe this chart showing the rise in US debt and gold makes clear where gold is headed as the growth of US debt accelerates.

    To learn more about the dollar, debt, and sensible ways to protect yourself, your family, and your wealth, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

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    Global Demand for Gold Coins and Bars Continues to Grow

    The World Gold Council reports that gold bar and coin demand for the 2021 April-May-June quarter grew by 56 percent over the same quarter a year earlier.

    For the quarter demand measured 243.8 tons.  

    Altogether bar and coin demand in the first half of this year was the strongest since 2013, at 594 tons.  In terms of total dollar value, it is the highest gold demand total since 2013.

    The second quarter saw gold demand from central banks reach 200 tons.  WGC cites large-scale purchases by Hungary, Thailand, and Brazil.  For the first half of 2021, central bank gold buying was 39 percent higher than the five-year average for the years’ first half and 29 percent higher than the ten-year first-half average.

    Gold demand for both jewelry and technological applications continues to recover from slower COVID lockdown levels.  For the second quarter, WGC reports:

    Jewelry demand (390.7t) continued to rebound from 2020’s COVID-hit weakness, although remained well below typical pre-pandemic levels, partly due to weaker Indian demand growth. Demand for H1, at 873.7 tons, was 17 percent below the 2015-2019 average… 

    Gold used in technology continued to recover from the 2020 lows: Q2 demand was 18 percent higher y-o-y at 80 tons – in line with average Q2 demand from 2015-2019 of 81.8 tons. H1 demand (161t) was fractionally above that of H1 2019 (160.6 tons).

    Gold outflows ETFs from the prior two quarters reversed to show modest inflows in the second quarter.  The price of gold ended the second quarter of this year higher than its January 2020 price in the dollar, euro, yen, yuan, and rupee.

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    China gold buying spree

    China Serious About Gold

    China is still gobbling up much of the world’s gold.  

    China is the world’s largest gold producer, with more than twice the annual gold production of the US.  It is also the largest gold refiner.

    Much of China’s gold position is kept under wraps.  It reports its gold reserves occasionally but will go for years without providing any updates.

    China’s official gold reserves have grown from 395 tons in 2000 to 1,948 tons in 2020.  

    But even official reports don’t tell the whole story.  We wrote recently (See GOLD: Behind the Curtain) that China’s actual gold holdings may be secreted away in separate accounts, including army and communist party accounts.  So, it may be sitting on more than ten times the officially acknowledged gold reserves.

    Now Reuters reports that China’s gold imports through Hong Kong jumped nearly 42 percent in June.  For the month it imported 30.88 tons.  That compares with May imports through Hong Kong of 21.78 tons.

    It means that China moved aggressively to take advantage of the correction in gold from over $1,900 in late-May, seen in the chart below.

    We believe that is a wise move.  We recommended buying the dips – particularly with the return of US inflation – earlier this year, 

    Reuters notes that “the Hong Kong data do not provide a complete picture of Chinese purchasing as gold is also imported via Shanghai and Beijing.”

    Meanwhile, other central banks are climbing aboard the d-dollarization express, diversifying their reserves into gold.  In June, Brazil, grew its gold reserves by 52 percent, purchasing an additional 41.8 tons. 

    We recommend you add to your personal gold reserve as well.

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    how to invest in gold silver

    The Only Asset that Holds Its Value

    David Stockman shows up on the financial news shows a fair amount.  But I don’t remember any of them asking him about gold.

    Of course, they don’t.  That’s the mainstream media for you.  Mostly they practice a form of journalism you might describe as news reporting by government handouts.  

    But they should ask him about gold.  David Stockman is one smart cookie.

    He proved it when he was a member of Congress, representing a district in Michigan.  When Ronald Reagan was preparing for his presidential campaign debates, someone had the wisdom to ask Stockman to play the part of John Anderson during that three-way race.

    He wowed ‘em.  The next thing you knew, Stockman was Reagan’s Budget Director.  In that role, he fought the good fight.  And much of what he described as the runaway government to come has proven accurate.

    Now Stockman has had a chance to say a few words about gold.  USA Watchdog’s Gregg Hunter gave Stockman that opportunity the other day.  

    “The only asset that has held its value over time is gold,” said Stockman, recommending that everyone hold some gold as insurance against the coming “reset.”  

    The reset, he says, is the inevitable bursting of the Federal Reserve is the Wall Street bubble.  “This is not the time to be invested in the [stock] markets . . . . A reset is just a pleasant name or a clinical name for a crash of epic proportions, which we will have because the markets are so inflated.  There are trillions of dollars that are at risk.  To put a dimension on this thing or a way of sizing this, is we have a $60 trillion bubble on the balance sheets of 130 million people in American society, but especially in the top 5% to 10% that own a huge share of the assets. . . . I have no thought about how big the correction will be, but if it were just back to the norm . . .  it would be a $60 trillion correction, and that is a pretty big hole in the bucket.  If $60 trillion disappears (out of the U.S. economy), it changes everything.  It turns the financial system and economic reality upside down.”

    Stockman doesn’t pull any punches about the Deep State Money Manipulators responsible for this precarious state of affairs.  “When central banks start to inflate like crazy, you first inflate financial assets.  It eventually works its way into goods and services, and that’s where we are now.  You get the second stage of inflation as well.  There has never been a small group of government officials, unelected at that, who have done more damage, more wanton harm to the economy and to the lives of ordinary people than (Fed Head) Powell and his merry band of mad money printers.  This is really an outrage.  I say these people are damn near criminally incompetent given what they say about the world, which is totally wrong, given what they’re doing, this massive money printing, which is totally unjustified. . .”

    “This is the last moment in time to be greedy or aggressive or to be overly optimistic about the future.  The future is being driven by the policymakers . . . . The whole system is being run by Washington.  The Federal Reserve totally dominates the financial markets. . . . The Fed has printed $6.5 billion a day for the past 688 days. . . . They have printed more money in the last 688 days than the Fed did in the first century of its existence.”

    “Preserve your assets,” advises the former Reagan budget director.

    Good advice!  Let a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional help you design a precious metals portfolio that meets your individual needs.

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    The Dollar’s ‘Sell By’ Date

    “The dollar is doomed!”  

    So says bond market guru Jeffrey Gundlach.

    Well, of course, it is.  

    Throughout history thousands of paper currencies and have come and gone, all failures eventually.  It is the common fate of fiat money, money that is decreed to have value by the state, the king, the central bank, or some other institution.

    Nobody ever has to decree that gold has value.  Its value is intrinsic.  That is why gold is the world’s go-to money in a crisis.  Politicians come and go. Monetary bureaucrats change places.  Governments rise and fall.

    But the value of gold and silver endures.

    As for the dollar’s long-term prospects, Gundlach, says “I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but I will use the word ‘doomed.’” 

    In a recent CNBC appearance, Gundlach pointed out that the Fed’s promise that inflation was only “transitory,” has been disproven. Originally, Fed officials suggested “transitory” meant one or two months.  ‘Now,” says Gundlach, “transitory is six to nine months.”

    “Jay Powell is still wishing, hoping, praying that this [inflation thing] goes way,” Gundlach said.  

    If Powell wants inflation to go away, all he has to do is stop the digital-dollar printing presses.  Just stop inflating.  But it still has the pedal to the metal.  The Fed is currently printing $120 billion a month, more than $1.4 trillion a year.

    Because the Fed doesn’t create any actual wealth – it doesn’t build any houses, bake any bread, or perform any labor – all the new dollars it creates can only take on value by depreciating the value of the dollars we have already.  Dollars of less value mean higher prices.

    And that, dear readers, is inflation.  

    Instead of wishing, hoping, and praying that inflation goes away, Chairman Powell should speak to us and learn how to protect himself and his wealth from the results of his own destructive policies.

    Meanwhile, with every turn of the Fed’s printing press, the dollar gets closer to its sell-by date.

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    Bubble Spotting

    Three Financial Bubbles at Once is Playing with Fire!

    Jeremy Grantham has appeared in these comments several times over the years.  He is a co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based investment firm with some $62 billion under management.

    Much of Grantham’s reputation and success rests on his track record of identifying speculative financial bubbles, among them Japan’s stock market bubble of the 1980s, the dot com bubble, and the housing bubble.

    In letters to GMO clients, Grantham has often wondered how such bubbles are missed. “I described it as being like watching a train wreck in very slow motion…. It’s more or less guaranteed that every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always going to miss it. And the three or four-dozen-odd characters screaming about it are always going to be ignored…”

    We wrote about Grantham’s latest bubble-spotting just last week.  Featured on the PBS Frontline documentary “The Power of the Fed,” Grantham said, “They [the Fed] have the housing market, the stock market and the bond market all overpriced at the same time, and they will not be able to prevent, sooner or later, the asset prices coming back down. So, we are playing with fire because we have the three great asset classes moving into bubble territory simultaneously.” 

    Now, thanks to a Reuters interview this month, we can share more of his insights about today’s precarious stock market bubble.  This, he says, “could well be the most important event of your investing lives.”

    When Do They Pop?:

    “Bubbles are unbelievably easy to see; it’s knowing when the bust will come that is trickier. You see it when the markets are on the front pages instead of the financial pages when the news is full of stories of people getting cheated when new coins are being created every month. The scale of these things is so much bigger than in 1929 or in 2000.”

    Today’s Stock Market Valuations:

    “Looking at most measures, the market is more expensive than in 2000, which was more expensive than anything that preceded it.

    “My favorite metric is price-to-sales: What you find is that even the cheapest parts of the market are way more expensive than in 2000.”

    What Pops the Bubble?

    “Markets peak when you are as happy as you can get, and a near-perfect economy is extrapolated into the indefinite future. But around the corner are lurking serious issues like interest rates, inflation, labor and commodity prices. All of those are beginning to look less optimistic than they did just a week or two ago….

    “What pricks the bubble could be a virus problem, it could be an inflation problem, or it could be the most important category of all, which is everything else that is unexpected. One of 20 different things that you haven’t even thought of will come out of the woodwork, and you had no idea it was even there.”

    What Will It Look Like When the Bubble Pops?

    “There will be an enormous negative wealth effect, broader than it has ever been, compared to any other previous bubble breaking. It’s the first time we have bubbled in so many different areas – interest rates, stocks, housing, non-energy commodities. On the way up, it gave us all a positive wealth effect, and on the way down it will retract, painfully….

    “But this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It’s as obvious as the nose on your face.”

    Isn’t it time to get some of your wealth off the bubble grid?  When the bubble pops there will be a stampede to the safe-havens of gold and silver.  We recommend you take advantage of today’s prices and beat the rush.

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    Transitory

    The Fed insists inflation is transitory.  

    But what does that mean?  Well, it does not really say.  

    Month after month now inflation has been running hotter than expected.  Some of our friends and clients may remember Fed chairman Powell’s telling a Senate committee in February that inflation would not be a problem.

    But when the evidence of higher prices became impossible to ignore, the Fed tried a new dodge:  inflation is only transitory.

    We are not sure that is working now.  Last week Powell returned to the Senate and confessed that the Fed does not understand the prevailing inflation.

    After months of higher-than-expected inflation, we will tell you what is transitory:  the Fed’s credibility.

    It is not just we who say so.  Here are a few snippets of comments from members of the Senate Banking Committee during Powell’s latest appearance:

    Senator Bill Hagerty (Tennessee):

    “I’m very worried that the Fed’s continued level of asset purchases and balance sheet expansion is facilitating this runaway spending that the Democrats are imposing upon us, and adding to the inflationary pressures that these trillions of additional dollars are going to continue to add to our economy and continue to add to the debt that our children are going to continue to bear…”

    Senator Thom Tillis (North Carolina):

    “I’ve got to beat the inflation drum for just a minute here. The FOMC members insist inflation is transitory, but it hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence in me.”

    Senator Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania):  

    “The Fed’s policy is especially troubling because the warning siren for problematic inflation is getting louder. Inflation is here, and it’s more severe than most, including the Fed itself, expected….

    “For the third month in a row, the Consumer Price Index was higher than expectations. Core CPI… was up 4.5% in June; the highest reading in almost 30 years….

    “Now, the Fed assures us that this inflation is transitory, but its inflation projections over the last year have not inspired confidence. Last June, the Fed projected that PCE… would be 1.6% for the 12 months ending 2021. Then in December, the Fed raised that figure up to 1.8%. And how the Fed’s most recent PCE forecast for 2021 year-end is 3.4%.”

    As we have explained many times, like all unbacked, irredeemable fiat currencies, the US dollar is a confidence game.  When confidence begins to fail, the currency loses value, slowly at first and then accelerating.

    Confidence in the Fed’s policies is cracking like thin ice on a pond.  It is losing confidence not simply domestically among members of the political classes and the public, but internationally, too.

    Confidence is won by performance, honesty, and reliability.  For thousands of years and around the globe, no monetary unit has inspired more confidence than gold.  Unlike paper money, real gold is not corrupted by governments, central bankers, or politicians.

    No wonder that when confidence in the paper money begins to crack, gold represents the best possible alternative for wealth protection and profit.

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    Has the Fed Gone Too Far? (Part II)

    “Money is gold, nothing else.” – JP Morgan

    In our last post we called your attention to a PBS Frontline documentary called “The Power of the Fed” that premiered on Tuesday, 7/13/2021.  

    We had no expectation that the program would provide a satisfactory critique of the Federal Reserve’s destructive activities.  For example, we did not hear a word about the Fed’s destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power.  Nor a word about gold, the money system upon which our free Republic was founded, the monetary system that would have precluded the Fed’s follies in the first place.

    So great are these oversights in the context of an examination of the Fed’s power, that we thought we may have missed something.  So, we pulled up the transcript and searched. 

    We had missed nothing.  

    The program’s focus was limited to the Fed’s tender affection for Wall Street and its undisguisable cronyism, run quite out of control with quantitative easing.

    Still, as we expressed in Part 1 of this commentary, we had no expectation of a thorough indictment of the Fed.  We thought instead that the program’s significance was that the Fed’s mal performance should be addressed at all on government television (remember that the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is a creature of Washington and survives on your tax dollars).

    So near are we to a reckoning for the Fed’s wanton money-printing and cronyism, that this show and other developments have us wondering whether “some of [the Fed’s] usual supporters may be scurrying away to avoid blame for the coming calamity.”

    With that said, HERE is a link for you to view the entire program.

    Before we leave the topic, we thought it would be valuable to provide you with a Viewers’ Guide to “The Power of the Fed,” by briefly identifying two of the commentators you will see in the film.  

    Neel Kashkari is the President and CEO of the Minneapolis Fed and is the Fed’s primary defender, Chairman Powell apparently being unwilling to appear.

    Kashkari misses the mark badly.  He is truly an idiot and we do not say that not lightly, but on good evidence.  He is incapable of seeing any link between the Fed’s interest rate manipulations that allow companies to borrow money for what amounts to not much more than a rounding error, and the explosion of corporate stock buybacks that the documentary finds so damning.

    Kashkari, working for Treasury secretary Hank Paulson, both from Goldman Sachs, oversaw the $700 billion Bush bailouts.  How did he arrive at that figure, $700 billion?  Kashkari pulled it out of the air.  He did the math right on his BlackBerry. “We have $11 trillion residential mortgages, $3 trillion commercial mortgages. Total $14 trillion. Five percent of that is $700 billion. A nice round number.”

    A nice round number?  And that is what passes for intellectual rigor at the Fed.

    No wonder people are scurrying away from the Fed.

    Kashkari does not mind at all that Fed policies are driving a wealth gap heretofore unseen.  If the One Percent, the very richest, are getting richer, says Kashkari, it is only a side effect of the Fed’s being so attentive to everybody else and their jobs.

    Right.

    But consider:  The Fed does not create any real wealth itself.  It does not bake any pies.  So, if Wall Streeters and banksters are getting richer, getting greater and greater slices of the wealth pie, it means that the rest are left with a smaller slice of the pie, a smaller share of real wealth. 

    And indeed, this is true.  The economic pie isn’t getting bigger at the rate it did before the Fed became today’s economic leviathan.  The more interventionist the Fed since leaving the gold standard, the more US GDP growth shrinks, decade after decade.

    Certainly, the wisest voice in the program is that of legendary investor Jeremy Grantham who sums up cronyism and distortion the Fed has wreaked on the economy this way:

    “In my career in America, the percentage of GDP that goes to finance has gone from 3 1/2 to 8 ½.  We’re—in a way we’re like a giant bloodsucker and we have more than doubled in size and sucking more than twice the blood out of the rest of the economy. And we do not generate any widgets. We do not generate any real increase in income. We are just a cost….

    “They [the Fed] have the housing market, the stock market, and the bond market all overpriced at the same time, and they will not be able to prevent, sooner or later, the asset prices coming back down. So, we are playing with fire because we have the three great asset classes moving into bubble territory simultaneously.

    All in all, it appears that we are awfully close to a meltdown from the Fed’s frenzied money-printing.  There is no bailout waiting in the wings for you when this happens.  You must take steps to protect yourself from a nuclear-scale monetary event.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist about a protection portfolio for your wealth.

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    Brace Yourself!

    The Inflation Outlook

    “Invest in inflation,” advised Will Rogers.  “It’s the only thing that’s going up!”

    That advice has never been better.  One of the great scandals of American monetary policy is the extremes the authorities have gone to in an effort to conceal the speed with which the money is losing value.  

    When the index they use shows prices rising too fast, they are quick to reconfigure it.  If skyrocketing food and energy prices make the political classes look bad, their servitors come up with “core” inflation that excludes food and energy.

    If you would like to investigate this class of flimflammery for yourself, look to the component of the Consumer Price Indices called “owners’ equivalent rent.”  It accounts for 24 percent of the CPI, but it is quite a sleight of hand, one that helps conceal the real cost of living.

    Even so, CPI numbers are rising at an alarming rate.  In May, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent.  Now the June report is out showing prices for the month having risen 0.9 percent.  That is the biggest one-month jump since 2008.  June’s numbers annualized would yield double-digit inflation.

    Other June numbers:

    The food index rose 0.8 percent.

    The energy index rose 1.5 percent.

    The used car and truck index climbed 1o.5 percent.

    Meanwhile, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists, Americans need to “brace themselves” for several years of higher inflation rates than they have experienced in decades.  

    But what does that mean, brace themselves?  It is a phrase that people use often.  Merriam-Webster says it is “said to warn someone to be prepared for something.”  So, to brace yourself means to prepare for some additional stress or difficulty.  

    But it not just mentally anticipating something, gritting your teeth in advance.  A brace is something that provides added support or strengthens a position or structure.

    How do people brace themselves for years of renewed inflation thanks to years of rapid money printing?  More than just resigning themselves to a falling standard of living, how do people prepare for their money losing value?  

    We are glad you asked because that is what we do.  We help people prepare.  We are specialists in real money, gold, and silver. 

    You can close your eyes and think, “Oh, no! Another monetary crisis!  Here it comes.”  But that does no real good.  

    Instead, you can really brace yourself and strengthen your portfolio, your wealth, and your retirement by diversifying into the world’s most prized and enduring form of money.

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    Has the Fed Gone Too Far? (Part I)

    Is Surging Inflation the Last Straw?

    We have been champions of common-sense Constitutional policies for a very long time: sound money, limited government, responsible budgets.   

    Along the way, we have often felt lonely pointing to the Federal Reserve’s role in enabling the opposite: fraudulent, unreliable money, gargantuan government, and uncontrolled spending.  For a brief shining moment after the mortgage meltdown and the housing bust, with millions losing their homes and jobs, it looked like Americans might be noting the hidden hand of the Fed behind the destruction and the egregious bailout of the Fed’s banking cronies.  The best evidence was the thousands of voters that greeted the Ron Paul presidential campaign across America with signs and chants calling for the end of the Fed.

    But it didn’t last.  The media didn’t like it and went to some bizarre lengths to limit the movement’s exposure.  For example, when Ron Paul easily won the Fox News poll after one of the Republican debates, one of the network’s leading hosts quickly disavowed its own poll.  

    We would like to make clear that we are not some Ahab obsessed with the Fed white whale for personal or for no good reasons.  The Fed’s operations are a mystery to most people and therefore few understand its reach into every nook and cranny of American life.  We have described its economic distortions and damage many times in many ways in these comments.  But for today we will reduce it to its bare essential:  Since money is half of every financial transaction, and the Fed regulates the conditions of money and credit, the Fed has a hand in everything. 

    Everything. 

    But now the Fed may have gone to far.  Because inflation is surging and it has the economy at the breaking point, even some of its usual supporters may be scurrying away to avoid blame for the coming calamity.

    The latest and most unexpected example is a Frontline documentary that aired Tuesday night (7.13.21) on PBS.  Since PBS is government television (the Corporation for Public Broadcast receives hundreds of millions of US taxpayer dollars every year), we were a little surprised to see its recent documentary, “The Power of the Fed.”

    The website Wall Street on Parade headlined its preview of the program this way: The Federal Reserve Has Radically Changed from a Central Bank to a Bailout Kingpin.  Americans Just Haven’t Paid Attention – Until Tonight.

    Here is its preview:

    “The Fed’s radical makeover of itself began in December of 2007 when the Fed decided, on its own, that it had the authority to secretly pump out trillions of dollars in cumulative loans to prop up the mega banks on Wall Street, as well as to the foreign banks that were on the other side of Wall Street’s hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivative trades. The Fed secretly ran that program through at least July of 2010 according to the eventual audit that was conducted by the Government Accountability Office…. 

    “The Fed’s latest massive bailout operation began on September 17, 2019, months before there was a case of COVID-19 anywhere in the world. The full scope of this operation and other bailout programs remain a dark secret at the Fed, casting a pall over investors’ confidence in the transparency and stability of the U.S. financial system.

    Frontline writers and producers James Jacoby and Anya Bourg… will now become part of a rarefied group of individuals who have mustered the determination to cut through the Fed’s insidiously cultivated armor of Fed-speak and the preposterous structure that allows it to create trillions of dollars of money electronically out of thin air for bailouts, with only feigned oversight by Congress.”

    The program does not get everything right; its producers are not students of monetary history and of prior episodes much like today.  Of course, it doesn’t mention that Constitutional money, gold, and silver, were meant to preclude exactly what the Fed has done.  Or that now that it has done what it has done, that you can still protect yourself from its paper and digital money folly.  

    But it does give some of an idea of how close the Fed’s grandiose risk-taking has us to the brink of tragedy.  

    In our next post we will cite just a few specific things in the program that miss the mark and others where its aim is true.

    You can watch the entire program HERE.

    The Beltway’s Financial Crimes!

    Decades of Skyrocketing Debt and Slowing Growth!

    We read today that well-positioned Washington lobbyists say that Biden’s tax hikes are dead.  We hope our friends and clients know us well enough to know that we are no friends of tax hikes.  

    Even so, we note that when revenue targets will not be hit, spending plans should be curtailed.

    But in today’s Beltway, that never happens.  Never mind the party in charge.  

    So, when the financial crimes that are bringing America low are finally reckoned, ever-growing government spending and debt will have to be at the top of the list.

    “But,” complain the elected classes, “if we do not give people free stuff to buy their votes, how are we going to get reelected?”

    And after all, the normal laws of accounting are widely believed to have been repealed by the Federal Reserve.  This board of mostly nameless, faceless bureaucrats is gifted with alchemical magic that allows it to turn debt into money.  

    The gullible think it is quite a trick!  Their magic will be tested in a big way this year, since the US deficit is tracking to hit $3 trillion this year (13.4 percent of the nation’s productivity), while the national debt is already $28.5 trillion.

    You might think that someone would notice that decades of exploding debt have been accompanied by a precipitous drop in America’s growth rate.  And indeed, former Reagan budget director David Stock has noted, as follows:

    Real GDP Growth Rates, 1951-2020

    • Post-war Golden Era, 1951-1970: 3.72% per annum;
    • Initial Fiat Money era, 1970-1987: 3.24% per annum;
    • Greenspan Money-Pumping Era, 1987-2007: 3.08% per annum;
    • Post-crisis fiat credit explosion, 2007-2020: 1.28% per annum.

    “That’s right. Real GDP growth has slowed to barely one-third its golden era rate despite the evolution of Fed policy toward increasingly massive money-printing (i.e., real balance sheet growth) on an increasingly continuous basis.”

    So, no, do not let any whack job politicians tell you we will grow our way out of this debt problem.  Debt has crippled our growth!

    But it does drive gold higher, as this chart suggests:

    We think the above chart suggests that gold has some catching up to do.  That is likely to happen when the next Black Swan hits- when another “unexpected” event triggers a financial calamity.

    What might such an event be?  We do not know.  Persistent inflation rocketing higher even as the Fed insists inflation is transient and under control?  An armed conflict breaking out in the Black Sea or the South China Sea?  

    We do not know; any more than people knew when their Florida condo tower would collapse.  But spiraling US debt and falling productivity is evidence that, like the Surfside tower, vital maintenance of US financial affairs has been deferred.

    You do not have to be victimized by the inevitable discovery that the Fed cannot really create money of lasting value out of debt.

    Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today.  Check your own portfolio’s ability to withstand a systemic breakdown.

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    Central Bank of Russia

    Central Banks Adding More Gold

    “Long term, gold is the most significant guardian and guarantor of protection against inflationary and other forms of financial risks.”

    We have said that sort of thing many times.  But this time it is a quote from a European government.  The more we hear foreign heads of state and central bankers talking like this, the more clear it is that the paper money illusion that gripped the world after World War II is beginning to fade.

    Central Bank of Russia
    Central Bank of Russia

    The assessment of gold’s significance comes from the president of Serbia, Aleksander Vucic, as he announced that the National Bank of Serbia is ramping up its gold holdings from 36.3 to 50 tons.  That is an increase of 440,00 troy ounces.  Serbia has a population of fewer than 7 million people.

    Much of the attention on foreign gold buying as protection from the US dollar in recent years has been focused on larger nation-states, with Russia and China leading the way.  But now, other smaller countries are lining up to add gold to their national reserves.  

    Last month we reported that the Hungarian central bank announced it had tripled its gold reserves with a purchase of 63 metric tons of gold in March. Thailand is reported to have purchased 9o tons of gold in April and May.

    The first half of 2021 also saw the announcement from Russia that henceforth its sovereign wealth fund – the entity that collects profits from Russian-state oil production – will no longer hold US dollars.  Gold represents a part of the fund’s diversification plans.

    The coronavirus pandemic slowed global economic conditions and accordingly the ability of central banks to maintain higher rates of gold acquisition.  Now plans are being reinstituted.

    Bloomberg News:

    “Central banks from Serbia to Thailand have been adding to gold holdings and Ghana recently announced plans for purchases, as the specter of accelerating inflation looms and a recovery in global trade provides the firepower to make purchases.”

    Higher oil prices “are also boosting bullion purchases by oil exporters, including Kazakhstan,” according to a Bloomberg source.

    A World Gold Council survey finds that 1 in five central banks intends to add to their gold reserves over the next year.

    We recommend that our friends and clients do the same.

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    The Mother of All Stagflationary Debt Crises

    “Stagflation” is one of those made-up words.  Like “rockumentary,” a documentary about rock music, or “brunch,” combining breakfast and lunch.  Stagflation describes an economic malady so well that it has become widely used for a period of weak or stagnant economic growth accompanied by inflation.

    The 1970s are often referred to as the stagflation decade, a period in which both gold and silver soared.

    Now, if economist Nouriel Roubini is right, we are entering another period of stagflation.  The famed NYU professor insists a “slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable.” 

    Indeed, much higher debt ratios today threaten to make conditions much worse than in the 70s, according to Roubini.  Debt ratios are three times higher than in the stagflation decade.  It sets the stage “for the mother of stagflationary debt crises over the next few years.”

    As we have written repeatedly, the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner.  Roubini describes it this way:

    “Making matters worse, central banks have effectively lost their independence because they have been given little choice but to monetize massive fiscal deficits to forestall a debt crisis. With both public and private debts having soared, they are in a debt trap. As inflation rises over the next few years, central banks will face a dilemma. If they start phasing out unconventional policies and raising policy rates to fight inflation, they will risk triggering a massive debt crisis and severe recession; but if they maintain a loose monetary policy, they will risk double-digit inflation – and deep stagflation when the next negative supply shocks emerge.”

    For the monetary system itself, there is really no way out, except straight through the crisis itself.  The inevitable attempts to forestall a reckoning will only make the crisis bigger.  But while there is no systemic fix, individuals can protect themselves and their wealth in a time-proven way –  with gold and silver.

    “The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period,” says Roubini.  “The question is not if but when.”

    Contact us today.  Take steps to protect yourself now, before the “unavoidable” train wreck.

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    Independence Day

    As we celebrate America, our independence, and the birth of our Republic, remember that the Founders specifically wrote into the Constitution itself a gold and silver based monetary system for the new nation.

    First of all, they gave the Congress the power to coin money. From Article I, Section 8, “Congress shall have Power…to coin Money.”  

    Not print.  Coin.

    It is hard to believe that proponents of today’s irredeemable, unbacked printing-press money schemes can get away with conflating printed money with coined money.

    The Founders certainly knew the difference between the two.  They had experienced the collapse of the irredeemable paper currencies of the colonies and that of the Continental Congress.  The Continental paper dollar was such a failure that it gave rise to a popular expression, “not worth a Continental.”  It was an all-purpose description of complete worthlessness.

    In Section 10 they addressed the monetary system again without ambiguity:  “No state…shall make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

    Why did the Founders incorporate these provisions into the Constitution?  First of all, they were learned men, well-read in the historical precedents of paper money failures, base-money inflations, and spendthrift governments.

    Secondly, just as they intended to set up a government that would protect our rights, they wanted the new government to protect our wealth as well.  

    But our politicians had other ideas. They stripped away the protection gold and silver provide to a monetary system, first in the Civil War era with the “greenback dollar,” and then again later with the Federal Reserve system and the final break with a gold-backed monetary system in 1971.

    Although we endured a brazen act of unconstitutionality from 1933 to 1974 when the government made it illegal for Americans to own monetary gold, today you can own gold. 

    So today, our politicians have failed to do what the Founders wished, and instead of a sound monetary system that protects your wealth, you have to protect your own wealth.

    And that’s exactly why we are here at Republic Monetary Exchange.  

    Have a happy Fourth of July!  Spend some time thinking about the blessings of liberty this week.  And when you or someone you know needs help protecting their wealth, call or stop by Republic Monetary Exchange and find out why the Founders trusted gold and silver.

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    What America’s Founders Said About Gold

    Meditations on Money for the Fourth of July

    Today’s governing classes have abandoned the Founders’ intent to erect the new Republic on the sound monetary basis of gold and silver.  The result has been an ever-growing polarization of wealth, an endless gusher of paper money, and a mountain of unpayable national debt

    Here is a collection of the Founders’ thoughts about monetary matters.  As you celebrate Independence Day with friends and family, spend a few minutes thinking about which of these observations is relevant to our situation today. 

    “Specie [gold and silver coin] is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level; because, having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.”

    — Thomas Jefferson

    “The refusal of King George III to allow the colonies to operate an honest money system which freed the ordinary men from the clutches of the money manipulators was probably the prime cause of the revolution.”

    — Benjamin Franklin

    “The power to make any thing but gold and silver a tender in payment of debts, is withdrawn from the States, on the same principle with that of issuing a paper currency. Bills of attainder, ex-post-facto laws, and laws impairing the obligation of contracts, are contrary to the first principles of the social compact, and to every principle of sound legislation.”

    — Federalist Papers, #44

    “The trifling economy of paper, as a cheaper medium, or its convenience for transmission, weighs nothing in opposition to the advantages of the precious metals… it is liable to be abused, has been, is, and forever will be abused, in every country in which it is permitted.”

    — Thomas Jefferson

    “To emit an unfunded paper as the sign of value ought not to continue a formal part of the Constitution, nor ever hereafter to be employed; being, in its nature, pregnant with abuses, and liable to be made the engine of imposition and fraud; holding out temptations equally pernicious to the integrity of government and to the morals of the people.”

    — Alexander Hamilton

    “Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.” 

    — George Washington

    “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

    — Thomas Jefferson


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    The 2021 Halftime Report

    The Year Inflation Returned!

    2021 is half over, so with this post we look at where we are heading into the second half of what we can call the year of inflation’s return.

    We suspect that our technically oriented readers will find it significant that gold bounced off lows around $1,678 twice this year, in both March and April.  One would expect gold to find strong support at those levels going forward.  

    Gold closed on June 30 at $1,771.60.   

    Silver finished the first half of 2021 with a June 30 close of $26.19.  Silver touched a low of $23.76 at the end of March.

    US government debt finished the first half of 2021 at $28.3 trillion, up $600 billion in the six months.  

    Of course, the big story of 2021 so far is inflation’s return, a story easily captured in the financial news headlines: “Gas Prices Surge to 7-Year High Ahead of Independence Day Weekend!”  Another: “Home prices in March saw highest growth in over 15 years!”

    One more: “And Now Prices Are Really Soaring: June Rent Jump Is Biggest On Record”’

    Bank of America analysts warned us in May of “transitory hyper-inflation” ahead.   Now it looks like the “transitory” part is on its way out.  Indeed, soaring prices may last for a long time.  That is according to the latest from BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, who writes now that, far from transitory, soaring US prices may last up to 4 years.

    Harnett says it is “fascinating so many deem inflation as transitory when stimulus, economic growth, asset/commodity/housing inflations (are) deemed permanent.”

    Meanwhile, the inflation numbers keep inching higher and higher.  The latest Consumer Price Index shows a 5 percent increase in consumer prices over the past 12 months.  The increases over the past two reported months, April and May, would produce an annual inflation rate of more than 8 percent.  In any case, it is the largest 12-month increase in inflation since August 2008.

    Deutsche Bank has observed that with its inflationary policies and its misunderstanding of monetary conditions, the US Federal Reserve will lead to a “chain of financial distress around the world.”

    And finally, news flying in below the radar in the first half of this year of what we have called one of the most important and revealing financial megatrends of all:  central banks de-dollarizing and moving their reserves to gold.  

    The Hungarian central bank announced that it had purchased 63 metric tons of gold in March, tripling its gold reserves.  But that was not the largest gold purchase of the year.  Sources report that Thailand purchased 9o tons of gold in April and May.

    The first half of 2021 also saw the announcement from Russia that henceforth its sovereign wealth fund – the entity that collects profits from Russian-state oil production – will no longer hold US dollars.  The Russian National Wealth Fund is estimated to hold $119 billion in liquid assets of which $41.5 billion is in US dollars.  But the fund will abandon the dollar at once and henceforth be diversified among other currencies and a 20 percent gold allocation. 

    We think de-dollarization at this time of inflation’s return is sound advice for our friends and clients.  Take steps now to prepare for growing turbulence in the second half of 2021.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional without delay.

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    I See Inflation

    “In Every Single Aspect of Life, I See Inflation”

    It is everywhere he looks.  Inflation, that is. We have written about Kyle Bass before.  The last time was just two weeks ago.  The official Consumer Price Index reports that prices have risen five percent over the past 12 months.

    Kyle Bass

    But Bass says the actual inflation rate is probably about 12 percent.  He sees evidence of inflation everywhere.

    Bass is the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management.  We follow him because his analysis of the housing bubble was spot on.  He made a half a billion dollars disregarding government economists like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.

    We may see a short interlude of slightly lower inflation, he says.  That is because the huge burst of inflation that hit in the last few months was enormous.  If reported inflation rates ease off from those sudden climbs, it may make inflation look transitory as the Fed has insisted.

    But Bass says to keep your eye on the ball, the burgeoning money supply:

    “When you look at the money supply, the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010, it vacillated between 50 and 60 percent of GDP.  Post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60 to 68 or 69 percent GDP.  Now we’re approaching 90 percent.  

    “In the one-year period, one-and-a-half-year period since COVID started, we have introduced 34 percent more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States.

    “So, we’re going to see prices stay high, and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet.”  

    And of course, the Fed has taken no step to halt the expansion of its balance sheet, now growing at a rate of almost $1.5 trillion a year.

    The answer for investors, says Bass, is hard assets.  That is a topic he knows something about.  Bass is a member of the University of Texas endowment board.  He was instrumental in having the endowment invest in a billion dollars’ worth of gold.  Why?  Because, he said, the Fed cannot print more gold!

    Which is exactly what we say.  

    Keep you eye on the ball!

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    Gold Bars and Nuggets

    Even More Gold News and Nuggets

    What Are Investors Most Afraid Of?

    A new survey from Deutsche Bank has the answer.  Not surprisingly, the Federal Reserve figures in two out of three of their biggest worries.

    First on the list is inflation.  Thank the Fed for that.

    Second on the list is a new COVID variant.  

    Third is fear of a central bank policy error.  We’re talking about you again, Fed!

    The realization that the Fed is the biggest source of investor fear – 0ccupyig both the first and third places – undermines its claim that it promotes the effective functioning of the US economy.  

    The United States used to be on a gold standard.  Now, says Jim Grant, we are on a Ph.D. standard.

    Gold has proven to be more reliable.


    Ron Paul Says…

    ron-paul-stock-market-bubble

    “The road to authoritarianism is paved with fiat currency.”  So says the former congressman, presidential candidate, and monetary expert.

    In his latest newsletter, Dr. Paul writes, “Germany’s Deutsche Bank recently released a paper warning about the Federal Reserve continuing to disregard the inflation risk caused by easy money policies designed to “stimulate” the economy and facilitate massive government spending. Germans have reason to be sensitive to the consequences of inflation, including hyperinflation. Out-of-control inflation played a major role in the collapse of the German economy in the 1920s, which led to the rise of the National Socialists.

    “This pattern could repeat itself in America where we have already witnessed the rise of authoritarian movements. Last summer, groups exploited legitimate concerns about police misconduct to ferment violence across the country. Can anyone doubt that an economic crisis that leads to mass unemployment, foreclosures, and maybe even shortages will result in large-scale violence? Or that the violence will be exploited by power-hungry politicians? Or that many people will once again fall for the big lie that preserving safety requires giving up their liberty?

    “… We may still have time to prevent collapse in America, or at least to make sure the collapse leads to a transition to a free society. The key to success is spreading the ideas of liberty until we have the ability to force the politicians to dismantle the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system that is the lifeblood of authoritarian government.”


    Need a Laugh?

     The Cleveland Federal Reserve has produced a series of three animated Lego videos explaining inflation.  We won’t spoil the hilarity by telling you exactly what they say, but to at least give you a taste, the second one ends with this teaser: “So, who helps keep inflation under control?  The Federal Reserve!”

    The third episode tells us “that with the help of the Federal Reserve, there is just the right amount of inflation!”

    All we can say is “God help the poor propagandized American people!”  Here’s the link to the Cleveland Fed so you can watch for yourself.


    A Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional can help you create a gold and silver portfolio that will meet your personal wealth protection needs and prepare you for the financial dislocations ahead.  

    Call today.

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    The Follow Up File

    Things We Think Our Friends and Clients Should Know

    In news that is important for gold and silver investors, we reported in March about an FBI raid on a private storage vault company in Beverly Hills.  While the indictments were against the vault company itself, and there were no allegations against the company’s clients, the government broke into the customer’s individual and private storage boxes, taking all their contents and personal possessions.

    The Orange County Register reported, “Customers of U.S. Private Vaults learned the FBI raided the Beverly Hills company after an indictment for federal crimes. More to their horror, those customers learned their precious valuables were being held at an undisclosed location and that they would need to identify themselves to the FBI to reclaim their property.”

    “In other words,” the Register wrote, “people must prove their own innocence to secure their property’s return.”

    The Institute for Justice, the national law firm that litigates for individual rights and liberty, has now taken the case, launching a class action suit claiming the FBI exceeded its warrant when it took possession of the contents of 800 safe deposit boxes.  

    From an IJ press release:

    “The FBI’s warrant for the raid did not include permission to do a criminal seizure or search of the contents of the rented boxes – only U.S. Private Vaults’ own business property. The government promised it would only look into the boxes to identify ownership, but it immediately broke its word. Once in the location, agents opened hundreds of boxes, ran any currency in front of drug sniffing dogs, and made copies of records in peoples’ boxes.

    “Now the government is forcing people to submit to an investigation to show they owned their property legally before it is returned. The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, alleges that the government’s shocking behavior violates the Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights of Jennifer and Paul Snitko, Joseph Ruiz, Tyler Gothier, and all others who rented boxes at U.S. Private Vaults.

    “ ‘The government’s dragnet search of innocent peoples’ private security boxes is the most outrageous Fourth Amendment abuse that the Institute for Justice has ever seen,’ said IJ Senior Attorney Robert Frommer. ‘It is like the government breaking into every apartment in a building because the landlord was dealing drugs in the lobby.’ “

    “Jennifer and Paul Snitko never thought they would need to worry about the federal government seizing the items they placed in the box they rented from U.S. Private Vaults. They stored possessions valuable mainly to them: Paul’s father’s will, backup hard drives, old family watches and Paul’s flight log. The Snitkos filed a claim form with the FBI, but when they asked an agent what the process was to get their property returned, the agent replied that she did not know. And when they asked when they would get their property back, the agent conveyed that there wasn’t any time frame.

    “Privacy and property are essential rights of all Americans,” said IJ Senior Attorney Rob Johnson. “The government treats box holders as somehow suspicious just because they held their property in a private and secure facility. But privacy is a constitutional right, not a ground for suspicion. If the government can get away with this here, we all will be at risk of similar intrusion in our own private space.”

    We will continue to track this case for Republic Monetary Exchange’s friends and clients.    

    It is always a good time to cite the Fourth Amendment, as we did in March: “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause….”

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    Shelter from the Storm

    Having acknowledged in our last post (Fake Money, Fake News) our gratitude to the Fed for providing us a chance to acquire gold and silver at lower prices, in this post we would like to shed a little more light on the forces behind the current price drop.

    Let us start with the Fed’s policy meeting and announcement on Wednesday (6/18), at which it decided to continue its money-pumping at the current rate.   That means it will continue buying Treasury securities by at least $80 billion a month and purchasing mortgagebacked securities by at least $40 billion per month.  That means money-printing at a $1.44 trillion annual rate.  

    Nothing new there.

    The only thing new in the Fed statement was an opinion poll of when voting members think the central bank will raise rates.  In other words, the markets were spooked by a shadow, not substance:  what Open Market Committee members think the Fed may decide to do in a year and a half.

    Idle conjecture over what the Fed may do by-and-by down the road appears to have eclipsed the fact that the Fed voted unanimously to keep its highly inflationary policies in place.

    Although current conditions forced the Fed to forecast inflation a full-percentage point higher than it did at its last meeting, it still insisted that it would only be a transitory phenomenon.  

    We recommend our friends and clients focus on substance.  The Fed is simply terrified at the thought of what will happen if it stops Quantitative Easing, pumping made-up money into the economy, even in the face of sharply rising consumer prices.  Wall Street and the money center banks, which created the Fed to serve their interests in the first place, know that stock prices are floating on a sea of Fed liquidity, and sternly signaled their displeasure that the Fed is even “thinking about thinking about” higher rates down the road.

    In any case we think there are others to thank for the opportunity to buy gold at lower prices, even in the face of inflation running hotter than it has in more than a generation.

    There are several places to look, but here is one.  As we have pointed out, the entire commodities complex has climbed higher under the Biden spending initiatives and the Fed’s liquidity pumping.  Copper, a widely recognized leader in signaling higher inflation, was among the biggest gainers, followed by other commodities.   

    But even as the Fed was deciding that it would continue its $120 billion in monthly money-pumping and maintain its interest rate targets, China announced that it would dump some copper, aluminum, and zinc stockpiles to counter high prices (notably it is not selling its gold). 

    Fed Building
    The Federal Reserve Building

    We have seen the same sort of thing many times in the past.  Sales of petroleum from the strategic reserves have had more to do with presidents seeking to drive prices down in time for the election than with long-term conditions of supply and demand or with the value of the dollar.  The US Treasury and the International Monetary Fund auctioned off millions of ounces of gold in the 1970s trying to force gold prices down.  The price of gold went up anyway.  

    A flight from commodities on China’s decision to sell some stockpiles to counter high prices is one component of the sell-off in gold.  But it, too, is more shadow than substance. That is because China’s stockpiles are small compared to its annual demand for those same commodities.

    Or to borrow a term from the Fed, its impact will prove to be transitory.  And it will do nothing to stop the destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power.

    Whipsawing markets and volatility are like the winds that foretell the approach of a violent thunderstorm.  The paper gold and silver prices on Wall Street can be buffeted about a bit, but real gold and silver offer shelter from the storm.

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    Fake Money, Fake News!

    The Federal Reserve has faked out the gold market with fake news… and provided us all a chance to buy gold at bargain prices!

    It seems funny to thank the Fed for anything, after the damage it has done to the US economy and the dollar all these years.  But whatever the reason, we are glad to have a chance to buy more gold and silver for less money!

    Here’s the story in a nutshell.  Last March, Fed chairman Powell said he could foresee no increases in interest rates before 2024.   

    Then, in the face of rising price inflation, the Fed signaled on Wednesday (6/16) that it could raise interest rates by the end of 2013.  

    The Fed is a notoriously bad economic forecaster.  Its guesses about what the GDP would do over the years have been so wide of the mark that if the Fed predicted that the sun will rise in the morning, for the first time in human history, you might not want to bet on it.  

    Now the Fed is predicting what it will do by the end of 2023.  

    Not the end of this year.  Or the end of next yesr.  

    At the end of the year after that!  

    Puh-lease!

    Even Powell said the Fed’s projections “should be taken with a grain of salt.”

    Chuck Butler, who writes The Daily Pfennig, shares our view about what the Fed might do down the road:

    “The key here is they are saying 2023… if I’m not blind, and can see a calendar, that’s 1 1/2 years from now… There’s a whole lot of good and bad that can happen between now and 2023… So, why were the markets so moved to push all these asset classes to lower levels? Well, for one, they were surprised by the statement… And they got their panties all in a wad, when Powell sounded so hawkish…  

    “…  The Fed admitted that prices are rising faster than they forecast 3 months ago… So, if their forecast for prices is wrong, then their forecast for rate hikes is probably going to be wrong too… 

    “I know what the Fed is thinking here folks… That inflation is rising faster than they expected, and their hands are tied for now to combat it, so they’ll try to jawbone inflation down with talk of rate hikes 1 1/2 years from now… 

    “And in the end… What they have done is give every procrastinator a buying opportunity… When was the last time you could get Gold below $1,800 or Silver below $27?”

    So even though the Fed intends to leave its fake money pumping at a rate of $120 billion a month, $1.44 trillion a year, suggesting that it will pull forward any rate increases spooked some people on Wall Street, creating a buying opportunity for savvy investors.

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    Getting the Financial Truth

    Gold Never Lies!

    If you are putting money in the bank, you are probably taking a real beating.  

    “People who have money in the bank, in their savings, are losing 5 to 12 percent of their purchasing power annually.”  So says investment guru Kyle Bass.  He’s one of the guys who saw what was going on and made a fortune when the housing bubble burst. 

    Bass is the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management.  While the official Consumer Price Inflation report say that prices have risen at a 5 percent rate over the last year, Bass says the actual inflation rate is probably about 12 percent.

    Appearing on CNBC recently, Bass said that investors and retirees need to start thinking about how to preserve their purchasing power.  “We think it [inflation] is running about 12 percent, and with short term interest rates still at zero, that means people who have money in the bank, in their savings, are losing 5 to 12 percent of their purchasing power annually. 

    “We have 34 percent more money in the US system than we did 14 months ago.

    “Of course, we’re going to have inflation and it’s going to be significant.”

     Bass is right to be skeptical about the government’s inflation numbers.  In fact, we think one also must be skeptical about everything said in the mainstream financial media.

    Here is an example.  It is from a piece headlined “Why everything is costing you more money,” by someone called the editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance:

    “If everything seems like it’s costing you more money right now that’s probably because it is — the saving grace being that perhaps things get a bit cheaper in the fall.

    “But it’s important to understand as an investor— and consumer —why inflation has picked up. Indeed it has major implications on everything from monthly budgeting of one’s finances to investment portfolio construction.”

    The author goes on for six hundred words or so, quoting people from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, about this and that behind isolated higher prices.  But his account, like so many we have perused over the last couple of months, make no mention at all of monetary policy.  It says nothing about the Federal Reserve.  Call it the elephant in the living room, if you like.  And that’s a good metaphor, since the Fed has jacked the money supply up to elephantine proportions.  

    Or call it the crazy aunt in the basement, something that people know is there, but studiously avoid mentioning.  Since money is half of every transaction, it is simply unfathomable that an “editor-at-large and anchor” should try to explain why prices are rising without talking about money. Professional economists must be aware of what the Federal Reserve has been doing to the dollar. 

    It is just apparent that many of them do not want to talk about it.  

    You simply cannot rely on the government’s inflation numbers either, especially since the record is clear that the formulae for calculating inflation have been adjusted many times over the years in response to political pressures.  And, because when the mainstream press tries to explain why costs are rising without reference to the $28 trillion national debt or a word about the $4.2 trillion dollars the Fed has manufactured out of thin air to fund that debt, you simply cannot rely on them as honest or knowledgeable brokers of financial information. 

    Inflation, it has been said, is like a country where no one tells the truth.  But gold is different.  Gold is not the money of states, central banks, or politicians.  It cannot be manufactured out of thin air or created by decree.  An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold whether it is minted in country A, B, or C.  

    Gold seeks no political advantage.  It neither lies nor conceals the truth.  It answers to no cronies and is indifferent to the latest trendy economic theories.  That is why people have made gold the enduring and most trusted monetary asset of all time.

    When the wheels come off the money-printing bus, when a real financial reckoning asserts itself in a crisis, when the truth, as it always does, wins out in the end, you will be glad to own gold.

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    Basic Math

    The Real Rate of Return

    If the teacher called you to the chalkboard to do some basic math, you might be asked to solve a problem about the real rate of return.

    Here is the story problem.  The interest rate on US ten-year treasuries (as we write this post) is 1.46 percent.  Meanwhile prices are rising at a 5 percent annual rate (according to the CPI for the last 12 months.)  Given these conditions, If John invests in those treasuries, what it his real rate of return? 

    1.46 percent (Treasury Rate)

    +

    – 5.0 percent (Inflation Rate)

    ____________________

    – 3.54 percent Real Rate of Return 


    The inflation rate is the rate at which John’s (and everyone else’s) dollars are losing purchasing power.  Because the dollar is losing value at 5 percent rate, John’s investment yield of 1.46 percent is not enough is not enough to keep up.  He may look at the paperwork from his stockbroker and see it shows a profit, but that is just a “nominal” profit, unadjusted for what is really happening to his money. 

    The ten-year treasury rate has been even lower than our example for most of the last year and a half.  As for the inflation rate, it is headed higher than in our example.  For the last 3 months, March, April, and May, the CPI is up 2 percent (which annualized is 8 percent inflation).  The dollar has lost more value in the last three months than the full year treasury return.

    John’s real rate of return is negative.  His is being decapitalized by the explicit policy of the Federal Reserve.  

    John is getting killed.  And so are many Americans.  Even older people, who should be managing their golden years conservatively, have been forced by the Fed’s interest rate manipulation to make increasingly risky investments to earn the normal returns they need to sustain them in retirement.  By the way, we think the next great tragedy in American financial lives will be the staggering losses suffered by those who have ventured so far out on the risk curve.  There is a tragedy among seniors in the making, courtesy of chairmen Powell, Yellen, Bernanke, and Greenspan.

    The last time we saw negative real rates of return like today’s was in the 1970s.  You may have heard how gold prices exploded to new highs in the 1970s when people began to realize what was happening to their money.  

    So far only the few realize what is happening to their money.  Only the few have taken prudent steps to protect their wealth, their retirement, and their families.  When the great mass of the people awaken, gold and silver prices will explode again, and people will wait in lines that go down the street and around the corner to exchange their progressively devaluing dollars for real money: gold and silver.

    Our advice is for you to beat the rush.  Do not wait for higher prices. 

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    Consumer Prices Hot Again

    “..that our Keynesian central bankers think inflation is good for everyday Americans and therefore relentlessly strive to generate more of it is one of the great follies of the present era.

     -David Stockman

    A lot of mainstream financial journalist could have taken some time off.  (In fact, we think the public would be better informed if a lot of them took a very long time off!)

    When the Consumer Price Index numbers were reported last month many of them told us that “inflation is running hotter than expected.”

    Now, with new numbers just out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they can just re-run their old stories while they enjoy time in Cape Cod or the Hamptons.  Because once again, “inflation is running hotter than expected.”

    Our question is this:  Who is setting their expectations?  After all, the CPI has it has been trending up every month since January.  

    They might have considered the Fed’s topsy-turvy policy of keeping interest rates below the inflation rate.  Have financial journalism’s Keynesian blinders kept them from noticing? 

    And if that is not enough of a clue, maybe they should have noticed the little, old $4 trillion in Fed money printing since late 2019.  Do they think that the authorities can print all that money without consequences?

    Here is the latest “unexpected” CPI news.  In May, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent.  That is after a 0.8 percent increase in April.  

    It amounts to a 5 percent increase in consumer prices over the past 12 months.  The increases over the past two month would produce an annual rate of more than 8 percent.  In any case, it is the largest 12-month increase since August 2008.  

    It was only weeks after that surge in consumer prices that gold and silver exploded to the upside.  Accordingly, we think this would be a good time to update your gold and silver portfolio.  

    Because after all, what is headed our way shouldn’t be unexpected.

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    US Debt: Already Impossible and Headed Higher

    Have you noticed that nobody much is talking about the US debt these days?  We scour the news and especially the financial media pretty carefully and it seems that most are hauntingly silent about the debt these days.  

    It is a little bit like the Sherlock Holmes story about the dog that didn’t bark.  Maybe no one much cares about the debt these days because they know that the Federal Reserve will just print the money to cover it.

    Last month we pointed out that Congress voted two years ago to suspend the national debt ceiling until July 31 this year.   We wrote, “Over the next 12 weeks you will hear a fair amount about the nation’s already unpayable debt and about the debt ceiling.”

    We were wrong.  We have been listening for the debate to begin, and so far, it is just crickets.

    Oh, sure, if you hunt you can find a couple of little things.  A handful of congressmen began pushing a measure last month to eliminate the national debt ceiling entirely.  The big-spenders do that all the time.  Another headline crawled by that said something about the US being one of only two countries with a national debt ceiling.  We didn’t read it because it seemed to fall under the category of “so what?”  Are we to be ashamed to have measure in place to limit our debt—even if politicians try to make it ineffective—just because others don’t?   

    Maybe it is so quiet because everyone knows that the national debt is unpayable and we are holding our breath to see how long until the endgame.

    Economist Keith Weiner has been thinking about the endgame, too.  He writes, “That the debt is unpayable may be obvious, but the endgame is not obvious at all. At first glance, it looks like the government will default. However, as the issuer of its own currency—and the world’s reserve currency at that—there is no reason to default.

    “The government can always get as many dollars as it needs. It can always sell more bonds.”

    Well, it can sell more bonds to the Fed anyway, which will finally only make the endgame more destructive.

    The only real solution is for individuals to buy gold and silver so the aren’t taken down with the collapsing debt.  

    May was the eighth month of the current fiscal year.  So, in just two-thirds of FY2021 on the books, Washington has managed to blow up this year’s debt by an astonishing $2.1 trillion.  That’s $184 billion more than the first eight months of the year before.

    Still the debt ceiling looms ahead.  But since we know that the debt will continue to climb, pulling our gold along with it, we will just relax and listen to the Washington crickets.

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    This is How Inflation Works

    This is how inflation works:  some persons get more purchasing power; some others get less.  An examination of today’s wealth disparity growth in America makes clear that those who get more are the already wealthy.  Those who get less are not.

    Social Security beneficiaries are an example of how this works.  The cost of living they received for 2021 rose 1.3 percent.  But according to the Consumer Price Index, prices in the first quarter of this year are rising at a 7.5 percent annual rate.  The adjustment retirees received this year are for an inflation rate that is already behind us.  They may get an increase next year, but they are paying higher prices today.  

    As long as the Federal Reserve has been in existence it has served the needs of the banking cartel that created it in the first place.  The banking cartel is among the government and central bank cronies that get the newly created money first.

    Economists call this the Cantillon Effect.  Almost 300 years ago economist Richard Cantillon noted that the standard of living of the early recipients of newly created money rises.  But it is at the cost of a lower standard of living for others.  

    Therefore, there are always proponents of inflation and of deficit-financed government.

    But seniors and retirees are not the only ones swindled by inflation.  Anyone who holds US dollars, an asset that is depreciated by design, is victimized.

    The great economist Ludwig von Mises explains what happens when the government inflates to engage in policy X, Y, or Z:  

    “…people to whom the money comes first now have a higher income, and they can still buy many commodities and services at prices which correspond to the previous state of the market, to the condition that existed on the eve of inflation. Therefore, they are in a very favorable position. And thus, inflation continues step by step, from one group of the population to another. And all those to whom the additional money comes at the early state of inflation are benefited because they are buying some things at prices still corresponding to the previous stage of the exchange ratio between money and commodities.

    Ludwig Von Mises

    “But there are other groups in the population to whom this additional money comes much, much later. These people are in an unfavorable position. Before the additional money comes to them, they are forced to pay higher prices than they paid before for some — or for practically all — of the commodities they wanted to purchase, while their income has remained the same, or has not increased proportionately with prices…

    “The government does not care, at first, that some people will be losers, it does not care that prices will go up. The legislators say, ‘This is a wonderful system!’ But this wonderful system has one fundamental weakness: it cannot last. If inflation could go on forever, there would be no point in telling governments they should not inflate. But the certain fact about inflation is that, sooner or later, it must come to an end. It is a policy that cannot last.”

    As long as there is a central bank that has the power to inflate the money supply, the currency will be corrupted.  Although its effects are only just coming into view, the expansion of the US money supply has reached epic proportions. 

    We believe that those who do not protect their wealth now with gold and silver (which, we find ourselves saying often, the authorities cannot print) will suffer grievous losses. 

    Mises is right: “In the long run, inflation comes to an end with the breakdown of the currency.”

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    Germany Invested in Gold More in 2020 Than Ever Before; Russia Dumping US Dollars

    Germany Set their own record for annual gold purchases in 2020

    Recently we wrote that due to the brutally destructive German inflation of a hundred years ago, Germans to this day retain a suspicion of money printing.   Now we learn from a World Gold Council blog post that Google searches for “inflation” in Germany have been trending higher since October.  No wonder.  German inflation expectations reached a five year high in March.  The post notes that “Germans bought more gold bars and coins in 2020 than in any previous year, by some margin. And so far in 2021, they have maintained a pace of investing that far outstrips the historical average…”  

    Last year we reported that Germans lined up outside bullion dealers’ offices to buy physical gold before the imposition of new bureaucratic regulations on gold purchases.

    64 percent of inflation-wary Germans believe that gold is a good safeguard against inflation and currency fluctuations.  The WGC says the German gold investing is likely to remain elevated the rest of this year.

    Russia Dumping US Dollars

    But there is even more evidence that overseas gold buying will be strong in the months ahead, thanks to more de-dollarization.  Russia has announced that its sovereign wealth fund – the entity that collects profits from Russian-state oil production – will cease to hold US dollars.  

    The Russian National Wealth Fund is estimated to hold $119 billion in liquid assets of which $41.5 billion is in US dollars.  But the fund will abandon the dollar at once and henceforth be diversified among euros (40 percent), yuan (30 percent), and gold (20 percent).

    Global de-dollarization moves are a growing phenomenon among sovereign nations that seek to protect themselves from both US sanctions and from promiscuous US monetary policies.  

    A Kremlin spokesman said that “”the de-dollarization process is constant. It is, in fact, now visible to the naked eye.”

    De-dollarization will continue and will certainly pick up steam as US inflation numbers rise.

    We recommend our friends and client get ahead of the curve by taking steps to de-dollarizing with a portfolio of gold and silver that meets their wealth protection objectives.  Your Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional is ready to help.

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    Hidden Price Increases!

    Are you ready for the “Incredible Shrinking Candy Bar”?

    As inflation runs hot and destroys the purchasing power of the currency, product manufacturers and markets find inventive ways to conceal price increases.  The most common means of hiding price increases is by reducing the size of the packages you are used to buying.  For example, you might be used to buying a five-pound package of sugar for one price, when suddenly it becomes a four-pound package for the same price.  

    They hope you do not notice.  Cereal manufacturers will package their products in boxes that seen from the front are the same dimension as always.  But the box is narrower and holds less/

    So, get ready for the incredible shrinking candy bar.

    There are other ways of hiding prices increases.  Materials may get cheaper.  Furniture that was once made of solid wood begins to be manufactured in particle board.  If installation of a purchase was free, now it becomes an extra charge.  Did you used to get a two-year warranty?  It may be only a year next time.

    A recent Washington Post story cited a typical example of “shrinkflation” packaging: “Walmart’s Great Value paper towels, for example, went from 168 2-ply sheets per roll to 120. The price, at $14.97, remained the same for a dozen rolls despite the nearly 30 percent drop in the product.”

    Here’s another: “Tillamook County Creamery Association, a farmer-owned cooperative in Oregon, reduced its family-size containers of ice cream from 56 ounces to 48 ounces earlier this year, bringing it on par with its competitors. The price, though, remained the same at about $6.”

    The practices are partly an effort to fool their customers, and partly a necessary means of staying profitable.  It is too bad companies feel they must go to such lengths but rising prices across the economy are not their fault. 

    They know that consumers do not understand that rising prices reflect the currency being debauched by the monetary authorities.  So as prices continue to rise, consumers may even stage protests against ranchers and farmers and grocery stores, while the real culprits in Washington escape like a thief in the night.

    You cannot stop the destruction of the currency.  It is a fait accompli.  The $28 trillion national debt is a result of money that has already been spent.  The new money has already been printed; the number of dollars has increased by 33 in the last 17 months.

    You can, however, protect your wealth with precious metals.  Gold and silver quietly rose about 8 percent in May, signaling inflation’s comeback.

    No matter how it is “packaged” – in bars or coins of various sizes and from differing issuers, an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.  

    Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today.  Let them help you create a portfolio of gold and silver that will protect you from inflation.

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    The Biden Budget Blowout!

    The White House has released President Biden’s budget for his first full fiscal year.  FY2022 begins on October 1, 2022 and runs through September 30, 2023.

    You will note the budget was released on Friday ahead of the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, a strategy to keep publicity and scrutiny to a minimum.

    Federal debt is already greater than the entire productivity of the US economy.  Nevertheless, it is a $6 trillion Biden blowout budget, and like all Washington federal budgets, it is built on a foundation of utter nonsense.

    For example, it assumes there will be no recession for the next nine years, although recessions appear on average about every five years.

    There are other “Rosie Scenario” assumptions is the budget.  It assumes higher revenue from retroactive tax hikes than those predicted by the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

    Biden assumes that inflation won’t surpass 2.1 percent this year.  It also makes the transparently absurd assumption that inflation won’t surpass 2.3 percent for the next ten years, although the Consumer Price Index for the January – March quarter this year shows prices rising at a 7.5 percent annual rate.  

    Probably the biggest fib of all is the White House insistence that the new spending “will pay for itself.”  We hear that every year, yet it never does pay for itself.  If it did, the national debt wouldn’t be more than $28 trillion.  In fact, we propose that the “pay for itself” lie be allowed to retire now along the other leading lies of all-time including “Your check is in the mail,” and the other big ones.

    With his proposal Biden seeks to normalize the huge growth of government experienced with the emergency appropriations during the Covid pandemic shutdown.  

    Despite commerce and other conditions returning to normal, Biden’s proposal is 36 percent higher than the $4.4 trillion pre-Covid FY2019 budget.

    Other provisions include an increase in corporate tax rates from 21 percent to 28 percent.  It also includes a provision to fund increased IRS enforcement.

    In short, Biden’s budget is big, punitive, and dishonest.  No wonder gold closed over $1,900 an ounce.  Both gold and silver both rose about 8 percent in May.   

    Time to add more gold and silver to your portfolio?

    Informed Clients

    We go to great lengths at Republic Monetary Exchange to make sure our friends and clients are well-informed about financial and monetary affairs.

    The truth is the more people learn about the short fuse burning on the US debt bomb and the unhinged policies of the Deep State Money Manipulators, the more they understand the importance of owning gold and silver.  

    But our efforts are not entirely commercial.  The looming debt and monetary calamities are only the financial symptoms of so much more that has gone off the rails in the American Republic.  A return to the principles of the Constitution will require an informed citizenry, and we wish to do our part in our area of expertise.

    So, we use our radio messages and sponsorships to alert you to things going on in the economy and government.

    For some, out Gold Market Discussion shows up each week in your inbox, while our blogs provide you with a deep archive of informed commentary and the stories behind the economic stories that drive the markets.

    And you will find Republic Monetary Exchange’s team of gold and silver professionals to be experienced and knowledgeable.   They are willing to take time to answer your questions and unravel the mysteries of the failing US monetary system so that you can protect your wealth, yourself, and your family.

    And now, we are working on more ways to make sure you are prepared for the monetary crisis ahead.  

    It is part of our mission.  

    More details soon.  

     “Stay tuned!”

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    US Debt

    The National Debt Calamity

    The United States will spend over $300 billion on interest expense this fiscal year.  And that is with record low interest rates.

    That represents nine percent of all federal tax revenue.  It is about $2,400 per household.

    Those are just a few of the troubling details from a new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    Here are more:

    • Interest rates are climbing.  In early March 2020 and again in August 2020, the ten-year US Treasury was 0.5 percent.  Now it has bounced higher, to about 1.6 percent.
    • Thanks to the pandemic lows in rates, interest on the national debt will drop from $375 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 to roughly $300 billion this year.  
    • While the passing  interest rate drop provided a brief respite to the debt service load, the US added nearly $7 trillion of new debt.
    • If interest rates rise as the Congressional Budget Office projects, the cost of debt service will more than double by 2029.

    We think interest rates are almost certain to rise much fast than CBO and CRFB projections, especially with inflation running hot.  In the first quarter of this year consumer prices were climbing at a 7.5 percent annual rate.  It stands to reason that if the dollar is losing value at such rates, lenders – buyers of US Treasury debt – will demand much higher interest rates as an inflation premium.  

    As former Reagan budget director David Stockman remarks, “from the year 2000 to 2020 alone, interest expense rose by only 41 percent, even as the publicly held debt soared by 535 percent.”

    The CRFB report acknowledges that possibility rates will climb faster than projections with this statement:

    “The interest rate on ten-year Treasury bonds is already more than half a percentage point higher than projected. If all rates end up being 50 basis points above projections, interest costs would increase by $1.7 trillion. Interest spending would increase by $3.6 trillion if rates were one percentage point higher than projected [emphasis added].

    What has this to do with gold and silver?  The Fed has purchased around half of the US debt issued in about the last year.  Where did it get the money to do that?  It printed it!

    Clearly, it will have to purchase even more debt as interest rates rise, a prospect made certain by rising inflation.  That means more printing, which means still higher rates, which means more debt, which means…

    The Fed is in a box of the Fed’s own making and the best way to protect yourself from the consequences is with gold and silver, the enduring money of the ages.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today to learn more.

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    Analyst Predicts “Extraordinary” Silver Move

    The bullish fundamentals for silver are very much intact.  Just the other day The Silver Institute, a Washington-based trade association, reported that silver demand for printed and flexible electronics is forecast to increase from 48 million ounces this year to 74 million ounces in 2030.  That is a 54 percent increase.  

    The Institute describes some of the reason that this application will consume 615 million ounces of silver over the ten-year period:  “Printed and flexible electronics are vital to the evolution of electronic technologies as they are mainstays in a wide range of products, including sensors for temperature, pressure, motion, lighting, moisture/relative humidity, radar, heart rate, and carbon monoxide. Other applications include their use in internet-connected devices, medical and wearable electronics, displays for appliances, mobile phones, computers and tablets, medical devices, automotive, and consumer electronics.”

    Meanwhile, a noted silver analyst says the bullish case for silver at over $25 in 2021 is even more compelling than when silver was $5 in 1995.

    Andrew Hecht has been a major player in the silver markets and a trader with the major international bullion dealers since the 1980s.

    Here are the three leading reasons he is calling for a silver move “that could be extraordinary”:

    1. INFLATION:  Hecht says inflation will become rampant, citing “the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus…”

    2. THE GREEN REVOLUTION:  Silver is critical for solar energy applications, but Hecht suggests that silver demand in an era of green politics could be much higher than current forecasts.

    3. A SHORT SQUEEZE:  The GameStop crowd’s interest in silver may be only the first attempt at triggering a short squeeze in silver.  

    Hecht writes that today’s silver price consolidation may be a prelude to a new high above $50 an ounce.  His entire article is available at Seeking Alpha.

    Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals expert today about silver for wealth protection and profit.

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    Inflation: The Cause and the Cure

    Because we are in the business of helping people protect themselves and their wealth, we have written often about the consequences of inflation: the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency.  

    Henry Hazlitt

    Long experience shows that owning gold and silver are the best means of personal protection from currency destruction.

    Digital money printing by the Federal Reserve has escalated to a magnitude that it is now measured in the trillions of dollars.  And now the consequences are becoming evident even in government price indices.

    With this post, we wanted to provide you the clearest possible explanation of what causes inflation and how it can be cured.   So, we turned to an old piece by Henry Hazlitt.  Hazlitt was a celebrated economics writer, once an editorialist for the New York Times and a Newsweek columnist.  He is also the author of the perennial bestseller Economics in One Lesson.

    Henry Hazlitt passed away in 1993.  What follows is his six-point description of the cause of and cure for inflation:

    1. Inflation is an increase in the quantity of money and credit.
    Its chief consequence is soaring prices. Therefore inflation—if we misuse the term to mean the rising prices themselves—is caused solely by printing more money. For this, the government’s monetary policies are entirely responsible.

    2. The most frequent reason for printing more money is the existence of an unbalanced budget.
    Unbalanced budgets are caused by extravagant expenditures which the government is unwilling or unable to pay for by raising corresponding tax revenues. The excessive expenditures are mainly the result of government efforts to redistribute wealth and income—in short, to force the productive to support the unproductive. This erodes the working incentives of both the productive and the unproductive.

    3. The causes of inflation are not, as so often said, “multiple and complex,” but simply the result of printing too much money.
    There is no such thing as “cost-push” inflation. If, without an increase in the stock of money, wage or other costs are forced up, and producers try to pass these costs along by raising their selling prices, most of them will merely sell fewer goods. The result will be reduced output and loss of jobs. Higher costs can only be passed along in higher selling prices when consumers have more money to pay the higher prices.

    4. Price controls cannot stop or slow down inflation.
    They always do harm. Price controls simply squeeze or wipe out profit margins, disrupt production, and lead to bottlenecks and shortages. All government price and wage control, or even “monitoring,” is merely an attempt by the politicians to shift the blame for inflation on to producers and sellers instead of their own monetary policies.

    5. Prolonged inflation never “stimulates” the economy.
    On the contrary, it unbalances, disrupts, and misdirects production and employment. Unemployment is mainly caused by excessive wage rates in some industries, brought about either by extortionate union demands, by minimum wage laws (which keep teenagers and the unskilled out of jobs), or by prolonged and over-generous unemployment insurance.

    6. To avoid irreparable damage, the budget must be balanced at the earliest possible moment, and not in some sweet by-and-by.
    Balance must be brought about by slashing reckless spending, and not by increasing a tax burden that is already undermining incentives and production.

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    Big Government and Big Inflation

    Ron Paul has something to say about both

    April’s big jumps in prices are not going to mean changes in the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate policies, according to gold expert and former Congressman Ron Paul.

    The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent in April.  Over the last 12 months, the CPI is up 4.2 percent.  Wholesale prices rose 0.6 percent in April.

    According to Dr. Paul, Fed chairman Powell “does not want to admit that the real reason the Fed will continue to keep rates low is that increasing rates will cause the federal government’s interest payments to rise to unsustainable levels.”

    “One way the Fed increases the money supply — and thus lowers interest rates — is by purchasing US Treasury securities,” writes Dr. Paul in his latest weekly column.  “These purchases increase demand for US government debt, keeping government’s borrowing costs low. An expansionary monetary policy thus enables increased federal spending and deficits. Since the lockdowns, the Fed has worked overtime to monetize federal debt, doubling its holdings of Treasury securities.”

    It is an important point.  The normalization of interest rates would make the US government’s $28 trillion debt virtually unpayable.  A mere two percent increase in rates across its debt portfolio will add well over a half-trillion dollars to federal interest rate expense alone.

    Dr. Paul’s warnings are the same messages we have been sharing with our friends and clients in this space.  He writes, “The refusal of Congress to cut spending means the Fed will keep increasing its balance sheet in an effort to monetize skyrocketing debt. Eventually, the increasing debt and inflation will lead to a major economic meltdown. The meltdown will likely include a rejection of the dollar’s world reserve currency status.”

    It will be a long time before anybody in congress knows as much about money and markets as Dr. Paul.  You should know that when he talks about protecting yourself and your family from a financial crisis, he means with gold and silver.

    Last year we cited these remarks from Paul:

    “The dollar’s value goes down.  It never keeps up.  There are more dollars around.  The purchasing power goes down.  Real wages go down.”

    “Big government always undermines personal liberties and encourages wars.

    “The issue is liberty, and liberty cannot be preserved without sound money.”

    Dr. Paul is the author of Gold, Peace, and Prosperity, End the Fed, and The Case for Gold.

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    Now that Inflation is Here…

    A New York Times headline the other day read, “Inflation Is Here. What Now?”  

    It is almost funny the lengths the writer went to in order to avoid talking about the Federal Reserve’s massive money-printing experiments.

    We even word-searched the article to make sure we did not miss it.  He came closest to saying something about it with this line: “Low-interest rate policies from the Fed have made financing cheap.”

    But we expect nothing better from the New York Times

    Well, what now?

    At least a similar article in the Wall Street Journal included this: “… it is true that gold, historically, has performed well when inflation is high, holding on to its value even in countries where inflation soared into double-digits….”

    In tracking the news coverage of the jumps in the consumer and producer price indices, we note with no surprise of our own that Fed officials and news writers repeatedly referred the news as “surprising.”

    Well, as our readers will no doubt be aware, it was not surprising to us.  That is because we watched Fed assets (digitally printed money of no tangible value) swell by $4 trillion dollars over a year and a half.  And we reported on it as grew.

    All that money must go somewhere.

    Our own answer to “now what?” is to warn our friends and clients about stock valuations that are already in the nosebleed section.  We are old enough to remember what happened with stock in the last inflation decade, the 1970s.

    We are not the only ones noting eerie pre-figurations of the stagflation decade.  That is because the inflation numbers were not the only economic news.  The April jobs numbers were a calamity, too, coming in at a mere fraction of expectations.  Columnist Pat Buchanan, an advisor to three presidents, writes, “April’s combination of inflation and near-stagnant job growth recalls the ‘stagflation’ of the Jimmy Carter years, which led to the Democratic rout of 1980 at the hands of Ronald Reagan.”

    “And while we may not be suffering from stagflation just yet, the present symptoms in the U.S. economy are certainly consistent with it.”

    History may not repeat, but it rhymes.  If this decade is going to sound a lot like the stagflation decade, you will want to remember that the big winners in the 1970s were gold and silver.

    That is what happens when the currency is being debauched.  We advise you to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional and make sure you are protected from America’s repeat of monetary policies that have failed over and over throughout history.

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    Raging Inflation

    Pay No Attention to the Mainstream Media!

     By now you probably know that price inflation is running hot.

    The government’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent in April.  Over the last 12 months it is up 4.2 percent.  

    For the three-month period February-March-April, consumer prices are up 7.0 percent.  And climbing.

    Wholesale prices rose 0.6 percent in April.  For the last 12 months wholesale prices are up 6.2 percent. 

    Now, since we do not pussyfoot around about things, let us state clearly what these numbers mean:

    The dollar’s purchasing power is falling.  It is falling faster than it has in years.

    As you have no doubt heard in news reports about these government indices, the media goes to great lengths to state it differently.  For example, here is a verbatim report from the Wall Street Journal:

    Consumers are seeing many prices jump for a variety of reasons as the U.S. economic recovery gains momentum. Used-car prices have surged as global chip shortage has reduced production of new cars. Many companies are passing on the higher costs they are facing for crops, oil and truckers’ wages. Airfares and hotel-room rates are climbing as consumers start traveling again after a year of restraint during the pandemic. More broadly, rising prices reflect strong consumer demand fueled by widespread Covid-19 vaccinations, easing business restrictions, trillions of dollars in federal pandemic-relief programs and ample consumer savings.

    You will note that the fact that the Federal Reserve has printed 4 trillion dollars of no objective value since late 2019 does note figure in the “variety of reasons” the nation’s leading financial journal gives for rising prices.

    Reviewing these blog posts, their description of the monetary policies at work, and their impact, it turns out that we have been a better source for financial clarity than the major US media.  We are more embarrassed for them than we are proud to keep scooping them.  But what matters most is that it is not good for the American people to be confused, and unprepared for what is coming.

    In any case, we are grateful that we have been able to provide crucial financial information to our friends and clients.  We do not copyright these commentaries because we want you to feel free to share them with your colleagues, friends, and family.

    And we always welcome your referrals and are glad to take time with people who need to learn more about the coming monetary calamity and how to protect themselves with gold and silver.

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    The Fed’s “Raging Mania”

    “It’s time for a change” in Fed policy.  

    So said legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller in a Wall Street Journal editorial the other day.

    We first dropped Druckenmiller’s name in this space over a year ago in a piece about Wall Street’s big money players who were buying gold.  

    We have identified the pandemic period as the introduction of Modern Monetary Theory to American policy, a development in which the lines between fiscal and monetary operations are erased.  So, we shared Druckenmiller’s thoughts again last Fall when he ratified our observation, saying, “the merging of the Fed and the Treasury, which is effectively what is happening during Covid, sets a precedent that we’ve never seen since the Fed got its independence.  It’s obviously creating a massive, massive mania in financial assets.”  

    Given that policy, Druckenmiller had no trouble seeing price inflation of 5 – 10 percent ahead.  

    That was in September.  With the Federal Reserve’s continuation of a money-printing spree that has taken the US into uncharted financial territory, we wanted to pass along a few of Druckenmiller’s latest observations.

    Steve Druckenmiller

    “Excesses of fiscal policy are already visible,” he and a colleague wrote in the WSJ (5/10).  “Consumers are spending like never before, construction is booming, and labor shortages are ubiquitous, thanks to direct government transfers. Two-thirds of all relief checks were sent after the vaccines were proved effective and the recovery was accelerating. Opportunistic politicians didn’t let the pandemic go to waste. Especially after the Trump years, Congress has decided to satisfy its long list of unmet desires.

    “Isn’t the Fed’s independence supposed to act as a counterbalance to these political whims?” he asked.

    In a follow-up interview on CNBC, Druckenmiller said, ““I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances.”  

    “Not one.” 

    “If they want to do all this and risk our reserve currency status, risk an asset bubble blowing up, so be it. But I think we ought to at least have a conversation about it,” Druckenmiller said.

    The world’s central banks are already issuing their verdict on the dollar, as they move their reserves into gold.

    “The problem has been clearly identified. It’s [Fed chairman] Jerome Powell and the rest of the world’s central bankers,” he said. “There’s a lack of trust.”

    Druckenmiller is right.  And when trust in paper currency erodes, gold moves up.

    Speaking last year about the housing bubble, Druckenmiller said, “Look, everybody loves a party, but inevitably, after a big party, there’s a hangover, and right now we are in an absolutely raging mania.” 

    No wonder Stanley Druckenmiller likes owning gold!

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    Gold and Silver Current News Rundown

    Three news stories that gold and silver investors need to know about!

    1. Gold and Silver Prices Break Out!

    now is the time to buy gold bars

    Precious metals have made their biggest weekly gains of this year, with the gold price moving decisively back over $1,800.  Gold closed Friday (5/7) (CME) at $1,831.  That’s up from the March low of $1,673, and gold’s highest close in three months.

    Silver closed Friday (5/7) (CME) at $27.48.   That’s up from its March low of $23.74.

    2. The Dollar’s Global Dominance Continues to Slide!

    As we have repeatedly warned, the most important trend on the global monetary front is the movement away from dollar reserves held by foreign central banks.  Now the International Monetary Fund reports that the dollar’s share of central bank reserves has fallen to 59 percent.

    Twenty years ago, the dollar’s share of allocated reserves was over 70 percent.  

    The IMF news release noted the obvious:  “Some analysts say this partly reflects the declining role of the US dollar in the global economy…”

    We would be less interested if the trend was merely a movement away from one fiat currency like the dollar and into another fiat currency like the euro.  But central banks are adding to their gold reserves instead.

    3. Government Raids Private Deposit Boxes

    store gold in a private depository

    In March, the FBI raided a private storage vault company in Beverly Hills.  But while its allegations were against the vault company itself, the government broke into the customer’s private storage boxes, taking all of their contents and personal possessions;

    Here are a few details from an article in the Orange County Register:

    Late last month, hundreds of people across Southern California woke up to a nightmare: their private security-deposit boxes had been raided by federal law enforcement. Customers of U.S. Private Vaults learned the FBI raided the Beverly Hills company after an indictment for federal crimes. More to their horror, those customers learned their precious valuables were being held at an undisclosed location and that they would need to identify themselves to the FBI to reclaim their property.

    Those customers must have been gobsmacked. The government’s allegations were against U.S. Private Vaults, not them.  The indictment didn’t allege that U.S. Private Vaults customers had done anything wrong…  

    But to listen to the feds, every one of the company’s customers is a potential criminal. The indictment points out that U.S. Private Vaults advertised the anonymity of its services, including the fact it wouldn’t force customers to divulge personal information. To the government, any individuals who may want anonymity cannot be “law-abiding citizens.”

    So it’s little surprise that the government broke into every deposit box at U.S. Private Vaults, emptied them, and took all their contents. Now the FBI refuses to return any customer’s stuff until he or she comes forward, identifies him or herself as the box’s owner, and submits to an FBI “investigation.” In other words, people must prove their own innocence to secure their property’s return.

    This might be a good time to cite the Fourth Amendment:  “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause….”

    Here’s a link to the piece from the Institute for Justice.

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    Six Degrees of Separation (from Financial Responsibility!)

    The National Debt Ceiling!

    So once upon a time long, long ago (we have heard) America had a political class that thought the country should be managed responsibly.  Many of the founders were vigilant about the new Republic and abhorred the idea of it being buried in debt.

    But eventually less responsible people took over.  When it became clear the debt was burgeoning out of control, this new class thought they could create a mechanical solution to “save them from themselves.”  If they could not be trusted to craft financially responsible budgets, they would create a statute that would cap their irresponsible deficit spending for them.  This was called “the nation debt ceiling.”

    But it did not take long for even more reckless politicians – if you can imagine such a thing – to drift even another degree further away from financial responsibility.  Having left behind their own duty to be accountable, they soon found it necessary to minimize the restraint of the statutory debt ceiling.  They found that they could simply “raise” the debt ceiling to accommodate their deficit spending.  

    Now, it is true that raising the debt ceiling every year or two tended to shine a spotlight on the metastasizing debt and their recklessness.  Since they did not like that exposure, they came up with yet another degree of separation from responsibility.  

    They decided to minimize the nuisance of frequent debt ceiling increases by simply “suspending” the debt ceiling entirely for prolonged periods.  During those periods there would be no restraint on their spending whatsoever.  Each time Washington spends more, the debt ceiling automatically increases.  In other words, there is no debt ceiling at all.

    Now a new monetary fantasy is taking over.  Since the Federal Reserve is buying larger and larger shares of US debt issuance with made-up money created with nothing more than a digital keystroke on a computer, why not simply cut out the middleman?  Why should the US Treasury borrow money and issue debt instruments at all?  Why not simply let the Fed create as much money as the politicians want to spend?

    That is the promise of Modern Monetary Theory, which is all the rage in Washington now.  And you cannot get more separated from financial reality and responsibility than that.

    To bring the story up to date, Congress voted two years ago to suspend the national debt ceiling until July 31 this year.   

     Over the next 12 weeks you will hear a fair amount about the nation’s already unpayable debt and about the debt ceiling.  We hope this short tale will serve as a kind of playbook as you listen to the political debate.  It will make clear that the only way to have a financially responsible nation is to have responsible people making decisions.  All other measures are simply added degrees of separation from responsibility.

    When the monetary and financial system has become this far removed from responsibility, it is, as the saying goes, “every man for himself.”  

    In other words, you cannot trust the system to protect your money and your wealth.  You must do so for yourself.  The bitter lessons of history teach that that is best accomplished by acquiring gold and silver.

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    Hyperinflation, Anyone?

    Just a short message today to let you know that in establishment financial circles the term “hyperinflation” has popped up.  

    In a post last week, Temporary Inflation, we pointed out that — unable to deny that prices are rising throughout the economy – the Fed and the Biden administration have begun using the talking point “transitory.” 

    It is a meaningless term.  All inflation is transitory.  It always ends sometime.  It may end in the destruction of an entire nation and its economy as it has in so many times and places, but it always ends.

    But now we have seen the ante raised by a major bank with the introduction of the term “transitory hyperinflation.”

    Last week a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst, took note of the huge spike in the use of the term “inflation” in earnings calls from S&P 500 companies (see chart).

    The head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at BofA wrote that this points to “at the very least, “transitory” hyperinflation ahead.”

    Hyperinflation is not a term tossed around lightly.  The term hyper comes from Greek, meaning over or above.  One might say someone is hyper-sensitive or hyper-active.  It is a mistake to try to pronounce that some fixed level or inflation rate is hyper-inflation.  It is an attempt to ape the physical sciences in which measurements have quantifiable meanings.  Like the temperature at which water freezes or boils.

    But hyper-inflation is not a particular number.  It is a prevailing monetary condition.  You know it when you see it.  Double-digit US inflation in the 1970’s, as destructive as it was, was not considered hyper-inflation.  

    Hyper-inflation ruins entire countries and destroys economies.  In hyperinflation, people catch on to what is being done to the money.  They become desperate to exchange the failing currency for anything tangible that has real value.  The financially sophisticated prey upon the naïve.  Nobody enters into transactions expecting to deal fairly; everyone is hoping to use superior knowledge or guile to exploit someone else.  

    Hyper-inflations pave the way for even more criminal government, as can be seen in the experiences of Germany and France.  They usher in a war of all against all.

    And they leave ruination in their wake.  

    The best protection is owning gold and silver.

    It is not a good thing that a major financial institution sees hyperinflation ahead.  Even if they try to soft-pedal it by calling it transient.

    We urge you to find out more.  Speak with a gold and silver professional at Republic Monetary Exchange today.

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    Six Trillion Dollars

    That is what President Biden has spent or intends to spend to get a long-term lease on the White House and the Capitol.

    Add it up yourself.  First there was $1.9 trillion in “stimmy” spending.

    Then he followed up with his $2.3 trillion “infrastructure” boondoggles bill.

    And then he announced the $1.8 trillion “families” initiative.

    And that is just the first hundred Biden-Harris days.  There are 1,361 more Biden-Harris days left! 

    Oh, they are buying a long-term lease on Washington, alright.  Never mind record debt and deficits, or government trust funds running dry.  It is what politicians have been doing for generations:  buying their offices by spending your money.  It is really a pretty good trick.

    Biden may pull this flim-flam off, even as the country is already struggling under unpayable debt.  (If the debt were not already unpayable, the Fed would not have had to print trillions of funny money dollars to buy US Treasures and keep the debt funded).

    Climbing out of the depths of the Covid shutdown, reminds us of the song about being down so long, everything looks like up.  And then there is the druggie high of all the stimmy money providing a rush of prosperity euphoria to the public.

    Serving in a senior capacity with three presidents, Nixon, Ford, and Reagan, Pat Buchanan has seen these fights close-up.  With his practiced eye, he says it is likely the Biden-Harris people with get what they want:

    “We are coming out of the economic free fall of 2020 and the pandemic that produced it.

    “COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths are fractions of what they were at the height of the pandemic. Vaccinations, while tapering off, continue in the millions daily.

    “And all those billions of federal dollars sloshing through the economy are going to make tens of millions of Americans feel better.

    “While the TV audience for Biden’s address tilted Democratic, the 85% approval of his speech in one poll, along with the 75% who said it made them more optimistic about America, suggest that this is Biden’s moment.” 

    Meanwhile the small, but once active coalition of congressmen who were thought of as deficit hawks, fiscal conservatives, a few from both parties, have been missing in action.  

    There may still be enough resistance to trim Biden’s wish list a little, but not enough to turn back the socialist armies running America now.

    David Stockman puts it like this: “The denizens of the once-and-former party of the old-time fiscal religion are waking up this morning to wonder what hit them.

    “After all, how do you compete with free maternity leave, free childcare, free pre-school, free elementary and secondary education, free community college, nearly free university, virtually free ObamaCare, free elderly care and, to boot, after $3,600 per child tax credits, essentially no income taxes at all for upwards of 75% of adult Dem voters?

    “That is, the Dems are going with universal free stuff for all while the going is good.”

    Apparently, the economic lab experiments in the Soviet Union, North Korea, East German, Cuba, and Venezuela have not been enough.  The American people have not learned from all that bitter experience that socialism creates poverty and ruins nations.

    Gold set its last high over 9 months ago.  We do not know the day or the hour when it will break out again, but we are staring right into the death-pocked face of prosperity and currency-killing policies.  Fortify your gold and silver positions now, because the longer the consolidation, the bigger the breakout.

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    Temporary Inflation

    The Federal Reserve Board held its regular two-day monetary policy meeting this week (4/27-28), after which it issued its regular post-meeting statement:

    “Inflation has risen,” it read, “largely reflecting transitory factors.”

    Transitory?  Where have we heard that before?

    The Fed has created $3.6 trillion out of thin air since the January 2020.  All that money must go somewhere.  Monetarists like Milton Friedman have maintained that it could take many months for newly created money to work its way into prices in the consumer economy.  Initially it was seen levitating stock prices and suppressing interest rates.  Now we see it in the price of houses, groceries, and other commodities.  

    By what theory can this be called temporary?  Typically, when consumer prices begin to rise, people and businesses begin to anticipate still higher prices ahead.  They change their spending habits and pricing policies accordingly.  Eventually prices begin to climb even faster than the rate of money printing.

    The Fed decided to keep interest rates near zero.  And to making the “transitory” talking point even more absurd, it announced that it will continue purchasing bonds at the current rate of $120 billion a month.

    Chairman Jerome Powell held the regular post-meeting press conference during which he insisted that ““an episode of one-time price increases as the economy re-opens is not the same thing as, and is not likely to lead to, persistently higher year-over-year inflation.”

    Okay.  This is the Fed that misses all the big turns in the economy and does not ever seem to recognize the bubbles it has inflated itself – until it is too late, and the damage has been done.  

    Here, for example are quotes from interviews of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  Bernanke demonstrates complete cluelessness when asked about the housing bubble the Fed created:

    July 2005

    BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

    February 2007

    BERNANKE:  Our assessment is that there’s not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy

    But here is Powell’s outlook, press conference remarks that may haunt him in the years to come:

    April 2021

    POWELL:

    Asset valuations appear “frothy,” admitted Powell, but he did not see any risks that may hurt the financial system; and “Leveraging the financial system is not an issue.”  

    We shall see.  In the meantime, a $4 trillion explosion in money created by the Fed out of thin air should be warning enough to fortify your gold and silver positions for the days ahead.

    The Fed Open Market Committee’s statement winds up with this: “In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.”

    Yet inflation is not like a light switch that Fed officials can turn off with a flick of the wrist.  After an unparalleled money-printing spree, consumer prices are only beginning to show the effects.  Powell and Company have no idea what they have unleashed.

    David Stockman reacted to the Fed and Powell this way: “These people are incorrigible. The Fed heads are driving the financial system to the very edge of monetary Terra Incognito, but they are still supremely sure that the inflation roaring up the supply chain is “transitory.”

    Contact a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional.  Fortify your gold and silver positions.

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    Inflation is Here

    Earlier this year we wrote in this space that if you visit the grocery store and discover food prices seem to be rising, contact a Republic Monetary Exchange professional right away and take steps to protect yourself with gold and silver.  

    Because the value of the dollar is going down.

    Now the news is coming in thick and fast.  Here is a CNBC story (4/27): 

    February home prices see the biggest gain in 15 years, S&P Case-Shiller says.

    Nationally, prices in February rose 12% year over year, up from 11.2% in January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index….

    The 10-city composite rose 11.7% annually, up from 10.9% in January.

    The prices in the housing index are two months behind, but report prices still rising even as interest rates trended higher.  

    The housing component of consumer prices shows just how far from reality the official Consumer Price Index numbers may be.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count home prices in the CPI. It maintains that if one owns a home, it represents a capital good and not a consumption item.  But since shelter is a consumption item, it must include shelter in some form.  So, it has cooked up something it calls “Owner Equivalent Rent” instead. The BLS asks homeowners how much they think someone would pay to rent their home unfurnished and without utilities.  

    How homeowners are supposed to know, it does not say.  It is using unfounded speculation and opinion from laymen to determine a major component of the CPI.  It is all very fanciful and reveals part of the reason why the government’s inflation numbers do not seem to match what people actually encounter. When it reported a 0.6 percent increase in consumer prices in March, the biggest monthly jump in more than nine years, it may have seriously understated real-life conditions.  Wolf Richter says using the Case-Shiller home price number would generate a year-over-year CPI not of the reported 2.6 percent, but of more than 5 percent.

    However, it is in the government’s interest to keep the CPI numbers low.  Higher numbers reflect badly on the political classes and are used to index Social Security Cost of Living Increases (COLA) and other costly benefits.  

    Enter Economist John Williams.  His consulting service and website ShadowStats offers an alternative to government inflation statistics.  He writes, “the ShadowStats Alternate CPI-U estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the government’s inflation-reducing gimmicks of the last four decades, which were designed specifically to reduce/ understate COLAs.”  The ShadowStats alternate calculation finds that the year-over-year inflation rate in March was up a hair-raising 10.4 percent as compared to the 2.6 percent official BLS report.

    Meanwhile, here is a Bloomberg News story from just a few days ago (4/23):

    The Grocery Price Shock is Coming to a Store Near You!

    This week, the Bloomberg agricultural spot index – which tracks key farm products – surged the most in almost nine years driven by a rally in crop futures….

    Overall, global food costs have surged for 10 straight months, the longest rally in more than a decade…

    When people notice they are being victimized by inflation, gold and silver prices begin to move higher, sometimes quite suddenly and dramatically.  So let us repeat our recommendation from earlier this year:  

    If you visit the grocery store and discover food prices seem to be rising, contact a Republic Monetary Exchange professional right away and take steps to protect yourself with gold and silver. 

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    Gold News and Nuggets: April 2021

    INFLATION EXPERT SEES “MUCH MORE” HEADED OUR WAY!

    “It’s as clear as the nose on your face!”  

    That’s what Steve Hanke says about the inflation headed out way.  Hanke is a leading inflation expert, an economics professor at the Johns Hopkins University and the director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute.

    “The dramatic growth in the U.S. money supply, when broadly measured, that began in March 2020 will do what increases in the money supply always do,” says Hanke.  

    Hanke uses a monetarist model to estimate the lag between monetary creation and it’s appearance at the level of consumer prices.  “Money growth will lead in the first instance (1–9 months) to asset-price inflation. Then, a second stage will set in. Over a 6–18-month period after a monetary injection occurs, economic activity will pick up. Ultimately, the prices of goods and services will increase.”

    “In response to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the growth rate in M4 [a measure of notes and coins in circulation plus bank accounts] began to skyrocket. By the end of 2020, it was growing at 28.9 percent per year, the highest year-end rate since 1943…. it should be obvious, even to the untrained eye, that the recent March year-over-year CPI inflation rate of 2.6 percent is simply a harbinger of what is coming in the future: more inflation.”

    THE FRUITS OF INFLATION:  FROM ERNEST HEMINGWAY

    Almost a hundred years ago, during the ruinous German inflation, Ernest Hemingway and his wife Hadley left Paris for a hiking and fishing tour in Germany’s Black Forest.  The summer trip was made affordable because at that point the exchange rate for the German mark was 605 to the dollar, down from 320 in the first half of the year.  By 1923 it would be much, much worse.

    Years later Hemingway called upon the details of this 1922 trip for a passage in his famous story The Snows of Kilamanjaro:

    There were birches along the stream and it was not big, but narrow, clear, and fast with pools where it had cut under the roots of the birches.  At the Hotel in Triberg the proprietor had a very fine season.  It was very pleasant and we were all great friends.  

    The next year came the inflation and the money he had made the year before was not enough to buy supplies to open the hotel and he hanged himself.

    MISH ON GOLD: “THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES!”

    Michael Shedlock, “Mish,” is one our favorite market commentators.  Here is a note from MishTalk.com just days ago:

    “Long time readers know that I have never issued a sell recommendation on gold….  

    “I have been [holding] gold since it was $300 or so. Occasionally I trade some for silver or even equities and have written about gold-to-silver swaps a couple of times.

    “Although I have not said ‘sell’, on some occasions I do step up to the plate and suggest ‘now is a good time to buy gold’.

    “This is one of those times.”

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    They Bought Their Freedom with Gold

    Maybe there is something to the idea of a national memory, the experiences of a people or a country that affect its outlook for a generation or more. Certainly, the Great Depression had a lasting impact on its own generation, and perhaps own their offspring who heard about the travails of those years so many times.

    The memory of the brutally ruinous monetary inflation of Weimar Republic Germany a century ago, the calamity that paved the way for Naziism and Hitler, seems to persist in German’s nation memory.  Many have commented at the aversion policymakers in Germany have to monetary destruction.  And in the current environment even Germany has repatriated gold it had stored in London and New York, even as it has added gold to its central bank reserves.  Just last year Germans stood in line outside gold dealers to buy physical gold before the imposition of new bureaucratic regulations on gold buyers.

    Here is another example.  After the communist takeover in Vietnam in 1975, a humanitarian refugee crisis developed that lasted more than a decade.  It is best remembered in the plight of “the boat people,” a mass exodus of perhaps 800,000 people on ships, boats, junks, and rafts, all fleeing the slaughter, torture, and “re-education camps” of the victors.  Altogether, twice that number of Vietnamese, 1.6 million eventually resettled outside the country.

    Most just escaped by any means they could.  

    Those that had gold were among the fortunate.  The new government sold exit permits to some, bribes that often had to be paid in gold.  

    Hundreds of thousands of boat people died at sea.  Those that survived the rough open seas faced robbery, rape, and death at the hands of pirates.  The United States took in more than 400,000 of the boat people.

      While coinage in the form of round disc shapes is the “coin of the realm” for gold in the West, gold in other minted forms has been popular in Asia.

    Vietnamese Tael

    In the second half of the 1970s, after the exodus of the boat people and other Vietnamese refugees, many American gold dealers began to encounter Vietnamese “taels”.  These were slim wafers of pure gold that had served as a currency in Vietnam.  Generally wrapped in rice paper, one tael consisted of 37.8 grams of gold. 

    Gold taels bought freedom for many Vietnamese.  Others were able to use taels to reestablish their households and livelihoods in their new homelands. 

    The importance of gold in a crisis is remembered to this day in Vietnam.  Just this week, the World Gold Council reported that a new survey has found that 72 percent of investors in Vietnam own gold.  A full 81 percent of Vietnamese surveyed believe gold is an important safeguard and source of security in times of political and economic uncertainty.  

    It’s a part of their national memory.

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    Sketchy Government Accounting

    As we write this commentary, the Treasury Department reports that the US national debt is $28.168 trillion.  

    That’s a lot of wampum!

    A year ago, it was $24.461 trillion.

    A year earlier, in April 2019, in was $22.027 trillion.  

    The debt has been growing fast, up by more than $6 trillion in two years!  If only that were the whole story.  

    Sorry, but it is not the whole story.  The real debt is much, much larger.  The real national debt now exceeds $123 trillion, more than four times the officially reported number. 

    And that works out to about $800,000 per taxpayer.

    The non-profit organization Truth in Accounting (TIA) takes a dim view of sketchy government accounting.  That is because the government does not account for its promises and obligations in the same manner that federal law requires of public companies.  So, TIA looks at promises that government has made, promises upon which people depend, but which are not funded.  Things like Social Security and Medicare benefits and federal employee retirement provisions.

    If you think that the US economy can keep functioning at today’s level if peoples’ Social Security benefits fail – benefits they count on to pay their mortgages, power bills, and for groceries – then read no further.

    But in fact, 64 million people receive Social Security benefits.  All the people they do business with and all the people who do business with those who do business with them depend to one degree or another on those payments.  

    It’s like the game Jenga where you pull out one block at a time until the whole thing topples over.  Truth in Accounting President Sheila Weinberg puts it into perspective with this anecdote paralleling the problem of politicians and unfunded government liabilities:

    “For years you have hired people to do work around your house. Instead of paying them in full every year, you use the money to buy holiday gifts, so that you are popular with your friends. Each year you tell your household workers that your children will pay the balance you owe, when they grow up. 

    “Have your budgets been truly balanced?”

    The choices the government has to deal with its debt are painfully few.  Most are utterly inadequate.  In 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney thought he could make a dent in the problem by getting rid of public TV and Big Bird.  

    There is really only one alternative:  painful, slow-motion debt repudiation through inflation.  Recipients will still get their Social Security automatic deposits… which they can spend on cat food.

    Of course, none of this had to happen, but the political classes thought they could replace honest accounting with sketchy accounting, and real money with unbacked paper money.  

    It fooled some of the people some of the time.  But you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.  

    If you have had enough of them trying to fool you with fake accounting and fake money, speak to a Republic Monetary Exchange specialist about how to protect yourself with gold and silver.

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    Gold: Behind the Curtain

    The are some big things going on with gold.  Largely unnoticed developments that we would like our friends and clients to know about.

    We have many times, and in many ways, explained that nations that are net acquirers of gold see their influence rise in the affairs of mankind rise.  Those that are dishoarders decline over time.

    You may think that this points to China.  You are right.  We will get to that in a moment.  

    But first, we want to make sure you saw a story we ran last month about Hungary adding to its gold reserves at breakneck speed!  In its latest announcement, Hungary reports its gold holding has grown from 31.5 tons to 94.5 tons Here is a link.

    Although starting from a low level, Hungary has increased its gold reserves by 3,000 percent since 2018.  Because Hungary is a republic, a member of the EU, and of NATO, it can not be said that its move to hold its reserves in gold is driven by opposition to US hegemony, as might be said of Russia, which has unloaded US dollars in favor of gold. 

    China gold bars

    Or as might be said of China.  

    There is more going on with respect to gold and China that meets the eye.  China has become the world’s largest gold producer and largest refiner of gold.  At the same time China’s official gold reserves have grown from 395 tons in 2000 to 1,948 tons in 2020.  

    But that is not the whole story.  As we reported last week, noted gold economist Alasdair Macleod has learned from “quasi-intelligence sources” that China’s real gold holdings might be ten times that size, as much as 20,000 tons.  China, which has long been cagey about reporting its gold holdings, might be holding gold in accounts other than with the People’s Bank of China, including the communist party and army accounts.

    Now, after having been on the sidelines during the pandemic, China has given the go-ahead to banks to resume importing billions of dollars of additional gold.  Reuters reports, “About 150 tons of gold worth $8.5 billion at current prices is likely to be shipped following the green light from Beijing, four sources said. Two said the gold would be shipped in April and two said it would arrive over April and May.”

    We can say with confidence that these moves are a sign of things to come and will be reflected before long in the price of gold.  

    Think of it as a word to the wise.

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    Inflation Roundup

    Between the (wholesale) Producer Price Index and the (retail) Consumer Price Index, inflation is the word of the day!

    With the Federal Reserve printing trillions of dollars, most of which has long been levitating the stock market and now the housing market once again, it is evitable that it would also spill over into wholesale and retail prices.  Here is a sampling of headlines and observations about the surging of price inflation.

    REUTERS (Washington, 4/13/21) – U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in more than 8-1/2 years in March…. The consumer price index jumped 0.6% last month, the largest gain since August 2012, after rising 0.4% in February.

    REUTERS (Washington, 4/9/21) – U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years and likely marking the start of higher inflation as the economy reopens amid an improved public health environment and massive government aid….  In the 12 months through March, the PPI surged 4.2%. That was the biggest year-on-year rise since September 2011 and followed a 2.8% advance in February.

    WOLF RICHTER (Wolf Street, 4/13/21) – The problem in the CPI is the homeownership component, the “Owners’ equivalent rent of residence,” which accounts for 24% of overall CPI. It is based on surveys of homeowners’ estimates of how much their home would rent for. And this CPI for “Owners’ equivalent rent of residence” in March rose just 2.0% year-over-year….

    Had the homeownership component of CPI risen in line with the Case-Shiller index, the overall CPI would have jumped by 5.1% year-over-year – nearly double the published rate of 2.6%!

    MICHAEL SHEDLOCK (TheStreet.com, 4/14/21) – U.S. import prices advanced 1.2 percent in March, 1.3 percent in February, and 1.4 percent in January.

    The 4.1-percent increase from December to March was the largest 3-month rise for import prices since the index advanced 5.8 percent in May 2011. 

    The price index for U.S. imports increased 6.9 percent from March 2020 to March 2021…

    DAVID STOCKMAN (Contra Corner, 4/12/21) – There is no other way to say it. The Fed chairman and his demented band of money printers are so blindly, mechanistically and monomaniacally committed to the will-o-wisp of 2.00% inflation that they are willing to literally destroy the money and capital markets to achieve it.

    ROBERT WENZEL (Economic Policy Journal, 4/9/21) – Rather than being a conservative steward of the U.S. dollar, Powell is like the drunk who wants to take one more drink before hitting the road. He sees no danger ahead only because he doesn’t seem capable of clearly seeing ahead at all.

    Current Fed policy is one of the most reckless in the entire history of the Fed and there is not one member of the monetary policy-setting committee, the FOMC, raising any kind of significant concerns.

    The Fed is going to be so slow reacting to the developing price inflation that the great danger is it could get way out of hand. 

    Buckle your seat belts and hug your gold coins.

    CLOSING NOTE:  We keep reading this week in stories about the death of swindler Bernie Madoff that he ran the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.

    If a Ponzi scheme is – as defined – a fraud that requires ever new investments to pay off the promises of prior investments, we think the US Government should top the list.  The US is incapable of paying off today’s bondholders without selling new bonds tomorrow.  Faking $60 billion in account statements is quite a scam, but it falls far short of $28 trillion.

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    What Does China’s New Digital Currency Mean for the Dollar?

    Do they think we are stupid, or do US officials really mean what they say?

    It’s really getting hard to tell whether they think we are just plain stupid…

    OR…

    … whether they are just so stupid that they believe what they say.

    You be the judge.

    Here is some of the background.  China is the world’s largest gold producer.  It is also the world’s largest gold refiner.  In addition to aggressively adding to its official central bank gold reserves, China is reported to have substantial additional reserves off the books, held in the name of the army, the communist party, and other institutions.

    Now China has created a new cyber yuan, a government digital currency.  This is a major step toward independence from the US-controlled SWIFT global trade settlement system and away from the dollar’s global currency privilege.   As Bloomberg News writes, “The dollar’s current dominance in cross-border transactions gives the US Treasury the power to cut off much of a business or even a country’s access to the global financial system.”

    The entire world has been chafing under US use of this leverage as a tool for imposing costly compliance with American foreign policy positions and sanctions.  A low-grade revolt is underway far and wide.  But the US does not seem to notice. According to the Bloomberg story, “US officials are reassured that China’s intentions aren’t to use the digital yuan to evade American sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter.”

    Oh, really?  US official are “reassured”?   When China’s every move, from its gold policies, to its raft of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that end-run the dollar, to this new digital yuan?  

    Yet US officials are reassured that China is not aiming at evading American sanctions?

    They whistle past the graveyard and want us to join in?  Do think we are stupid?  

    Or are they too dumb to understand what is going on?

    You be the judge.

    For what it is worth, financial historian Naill Ferguson has concluded they just don’t get it.  He writes, “American monetary authorities [are] underestimating the threat posed to dollar dominance by China’s pioneering combination of digital currency and electronic payments.”

    Whatever your verdict, when the dollar’s future is in hands like this, it is better to own gold and silver. 

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    The Market News You Need to Know

    Today’s key stories have to do with foreign nations aggressively adding to their gold holdings, while both the deficit and inflation are rising in the United States.


    HUNGARY TRIPLES ITS GOLD RESERVES!

    Hungary has added gold reserves at a record rate, tripling its central bank holdings in less than three years.

    From the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s (Hungarian Central Bank) official announcement:

    “As it carries no credit or counterparty risks, gold facilitates reinforcing trust in a country in all economic environments, which still renders it one of the most crucial reserve assets worldwide…

    “Taking into account the country’s long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank decided to triple its gold reserves. Managing new risks arising from the coronavirus pandemic also played a key role in the decision. The appearance of global spikes in government debts or inflation concerns further increase the importance of gold in national strategy as a safe-haven asset and as a store of value. 

    “As a result of this decision, the country’s gold reserves have been raised from 31.5 tons to 94.5 tons….”


    THIRD LARGEST MONTHLY US DEFICIT IN HISTORY!

    March was another blow-off month for the US deficit.  The Congressional Budget Office reports a $658 shortfall for the month.  

    It is the third largest monthly deficit in US history, coming in behind the record COVID shutdown deficits in April and June last year.

    For the first six months (October 2020 – March 2021) of the current fiscal year, the government ran a $1.7 trillion river of red ink.  

    That is almost $1 trillion more than the same six months a year earlier.


    INFLATION WATCH

    We aren’t surprised by the big increase in producer prices in March.  We have been reporting on Fed activities and warning that inflation is making a big comeback. 

    But establishment economists were apparently shocked when the producer price index for March came in twice as high as their forecasts.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ final demand index showed a 1.0 percent increase for the month of March. That compares to economists’ expectations as reported by Reuters of only 0.5 percent.

    It was the biggest annual gain in 9 ½ years.  For the 12 months through March the PPI was up 4.2 percent.


    CHINA’S HIDDEN GOLD RESERVES!

    Comments by noted gold researcher Alasdair Macleod:

    “America has promoted her dollar basically by demoting gold.  And yet we have the Chinese and Russians who have taken control of the physical markets, particularly China….

    “They also have a lot of hidden reserves.  Not only has China become the largest miner, not only has she become the largest refiner of her own gold, but I reckon (and I have had some confirmation on this from quasi-intelligence sources), that China has stored something like 20,000 tons of gold, physical gold in various accounts.  They don’t appear in the central bank accounts, but we’re looking at the Communist Party accounts, the Army accounts, the young communist party’s accounts [the Communist Youth League].  It’s spread around. 

    And I suspect that Russia is in a similar situation.”


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    More on the Silver Shortage Situation

    The reality on the ground for silver can be expressed in one word:  shortages.

    The price of real, physical silver remains disconnected from the “spot,” or paper benchmark prices.  

    It is a little like the old Soviet Union, where the posted prices in stores might have been low, but the shelves were all empty!

    That is because those prices were not real.

    Today there are shortages in both the gold and silver markets.  As we reported recently, even the US Mint has been affected by the divergence between the real physical gold and silver prices and the benchmark paper or “spot” prices.  The Mint has been unable to acquire enough bullion at benchmark or spot prices to meet investor demand for both metals (see US Mint Can’t Meet Demand for Gold and Silver).

    While there are issues with both gold and silver paper markets, the silver shortages are the most pronounced.  

    We believe that these industry-wide shortages will be resolved by much higher prices.  

    Because Republic Monetary Exchange anticipates conditions like this, we still have physical gold and silver available for immediate delivery.  

    You should know that the situation appears to be getting worse.  It is not limited to just the United States.  Just the other day we were alerted that Britain’s largest bullion dealer is running out of real silver for delivery.

    The advice in the trades is for people to convert paper silver investment vehicles to real physical silver while you can.   

    In the meantime, other dealers are unable to make delivery to their clients in a timely manner.  Many are asking their clients to pay them today for silver that will be delivered at some unspecified time in the future.

    We strongly recommend against that.  At Republic Monetary Exchange, we subscribe to best practices for our client’s protection and profitability.  And that includes immediate delivery of gold and silver when you buy and immediate payment when you sell.

    Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.  Take steps to protect yourself and your family with real precious metals.

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    When the Government Criminalized Gold Ownership

    I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations….

    Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or of these regulations or of any rule, regulation or license issued thereunder may be fined not more than $10,000, or, if a natural person, may be imprisoned for not more than ten years, or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

    It was 88 years ago this week that the US government made it a criminal offense for American to own monetary gold.

    Our thanks to Tho Bishop at the Mises Institute for reminding us of the infamous anniversary.  Bishop writes:

    “The order was one of the several disastrous responses to the Great Depression that succeeded in escalating the financial crisis. Later in the year, the US Congress would pass a resolution retroactively supporting the legislation; however, it was the determined autocratic leadership of FDR that made way for these unprecedented measures. It would be a crime for Americans to hold gold for over forty years, until President Gerald Ford reversed the order in 1974. 

    “This episode has several lessons for the current financial environment, particularly given the acceleration of tyranny-by-expert rule that has taken over much of the worst this past year.

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 1933

    “The underlying legislation that evoked by FDR’s executive order was the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917—a by-product of World War I—despite the fact that the US was in no way in a period of war in 1932. Similarly, we have seen war on terror–inspired financial legislation increasingly used against American citizens. For example, in the name of “fighting terrorism” the US PATRIOT Act significantly increased know-your-customer laws, empowering federal regulators to use the traditional banking system to better track the economic behavior of American citizens.”

    The objective of Roosevelt’s gold grab was twofold: first, to devalue the dollar then and there, and then to get gold out of the way.  Gold’s role in the monetary system acted as a brake on the Fed expansion of money and credit and the endless growth of the State.  It was an impediment to deficit spending that had to go.  Gold had to go because it made the individual’s financial well-being dependent upon himself, instead of upon State benefactors and the decrees of the monetary authorities.  It was a bulwark against the erosion of property and individual rights.  Gold had to go.

    Roosevelt’s action was a brazen affront to free American people and an assault on the Constitution itself.

    To this day it reminds us that private ownership of gold is not just a means of protecting our individual wealth and prosperity.  It is an assertion of the liberty that the founders, great men like Washington, Franklin, Jefferson, and Madison, intended for the new American republic.

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    Congressman Stands for Constitutional Money; Stands Against Money Printers

    With a couple of currency management exceptions along the way, China has mostly encouraged its citizens to acquire gold.  The central bank of China has been busy stockpiling gold as well.  

    China seems to understand the age-old lesson that nations that are net acquirers of gold rise in economic might.  Those that dishoard their gold lose their vitality. 

    What a contrast China’s attitude is to the US where globalist government has squandered so much of the peoples’ gold.  Some it gave to the sketchy, crony International Monetary Fund.  Bad move.  More of the peoples’ gold the Treasury auctioned off in a failed attempt to suppress the gold price.  Another bad move.

    Here is a rule of thumb that has stood up well throughout the ages: if the government doesn’t want you to own gold, its probably a good time to buy more.  

    Issuers of fiat currencies are always hostile to gold and must suppress it at the first hint of a challenge.  After all, the money printing flim-flam works by the State appropriating some of the value of the currency.  If people are wise to the game and refuse to hold the State’s currency, there is no one to fleece.  

    That is why tax policy is hostile to gold and silver.  They represent superior competitors to dollars that roll right off the digital printing press by the trillions with nothing more than a computer keystroke.  

    As we are becoming fond of saying, they cannot print gold and silver!  

    Now one congressman has decided to do something about the State’s financial engineering of individuals.  Just days ago, Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

    “My view, which is backed up by language in the US Constitution, is that gold and silver coins are money and are legal tender,” said Mooney.  If they are indeed U.S. money, it seems there should be no taxes on them at all. So, why are we taxing these coins as collectibles?”

    Mooney’s bill, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act, states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the sale or exchange of (1) gold, silver, platinum, or palladium minted and issued by the Secretary at any time or (2), refined gold or silver bullion, coins, bars, rounds, or ingots which are valued primarily based on their metal content and not their form.”

    The text of the H.R. 2284, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act can be found here.

    We note that this is not the first measure that has attempted to address the issue. We have watched similar measure fail over the years, and in fact this is a re-introduction of the Monetary Metals Neutrality Act.  It has been assigned to the House Ways and Means Committee.  If the past, as is often said, is prologue, the measure will die there.

    We will keep an eye on it.

    The Eroding International Dollar

    A Key Reason to Own Gold!

    The US dollar’s share of global currency reserves continues to fall.

    One financial blogger headlines the story with this question: “Central banks getting nervous about the Fed’s drunken Money Printing and the US Government’s gigantic debt?”  (WolfStreet.com)

    Of course, they are getting nervous.  

    The dollar’s share of global reserve functions has eroded from 85 percent in the 1970s.  It is now down to 59 percent, off seven percent since 2014.

    Because we believe that the erosion of the dollar reserve function is one of the most decisive developments in the financial world, we have reported on it along the way.  

    We tracked Russia’ almost total abandonment of its dollar reserves in favor of gold, writing in 2019 that “Russia, seeking to protect itself from a dollar crisis, continues to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds while beefing up its gold stock at an accelerated pace.  

    “The Bank of Russia, the central bank, bought 8.8 million troy ounces of gold in 2018, increasing its total gold holdings by 14.9 percent.”  See Russia Adds Gold, Surpasses China… (For Now!) 

    In 2919 we wrote, “Like Russia, China’s gold acquisitions can only be described as aggressive.  From 1,054 tons in June 2015, it now boasts reserves of 1,852.  

    “In other words, China has grown its official gold holdings by 75 percent in 3½ years.”  See China Adds 10 Tons of Gold to Its Reserves in December.

    More recently, we pointed out that the US foreign policy establishment is shooting the dollar in the foot with its promiscuous reliance on sanctions as a primary tool of foreign policy.  We cited a New York Times story that found increasing resistance to US sanctions and the development foreign account settlement options that bypass US control.  See Where Does the World Turn to as it “De-Dollarizes? 

    Wolf Street writes, “The US dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency is a crucial enabler for the US government to keep ballooning its public debt, and for Corporate America’s relentless efforts to create the vast trade deficits by offshoring production to cheap countries, most prominently China and Mexico.

    Talk to a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional about the reasons why gold and silver are your best defense against the declining role of the dollar.

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    Biden Goes for Broke

    Biden intends to send federal spending to levels not seen since World War II.

    He is doing so at a time that federal debt is already about 129 percent of gross domestic product.

    Biden announced the $2.3 trillion dollar plan last Wednesday.  It is described as providing funding for bridges and roads, expanding access to high-speed internet, improving public transit, and encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles.   It is not described as a plan to stovepipe money to the politically correct and the politically connected.  

    But it is.  It’s a politician’s fantasy come true.

    There is still another shoe yet to drop.   The infrastructure measure is the first of a two-part plan that the administration will seek to move through Congress.  A second plan, to be revealed in April, focuses on remaking American life by escalating the State’s role in childcare, healthcare, and education.  It is not described as a means to stovepipe taxpayer money to a vast new social engineering scheme.

    But it is.  It is collectivist’s fantasy come true.

    Biden’s plan rests on raising corporate tax rates 21 to 28 percent.  This will make its way to price increases on the goods and services American corporations provide.  Fueling further price hikes at a time that there is widespread fear that inflation is beginning to reassert itself is particularly tone-deaf.

    Accordingly, the people will pay more for the necessities of daily life.  State cronies will fill their pockets at the end of the Biden pipeline.

    As the Biden plan advances you will hear like a constant drumbeat the talking point that the measure will so unleash America’s productive might that it will pay for itself.  That has been the ceaseless mythology of State for years: that we can spend our way to prosperity.  But if all the constantly rising state spending and intervention in the economy pays for itself as alleged, how has the national debt grown to $28 trillion?  

    (See our posts on “the marginal productivity of debt,” Doom Loop, Part I and Doom Loop, Part II.)

    The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget address this very issue:

    “As the details come out, you’ll hear advocates claim these new investments will actually pay for themselves through new growth or that deficits don’t matter. That was not true during the 2017 tax cut debate and it certainly is not true now.

    “Investing in reliable and resilient infrastructure can help the economy, but the research is clear that the return is fairly modest. In fact, analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and Penn Wharton Budget Model suggests that returns on debt-financed infrastructure investments could well be negative.

    “Since the start of the crisis, we have taken on more than $5 trillion in debt to fight COVID, with much of it being justified. But we also borrowed nearly $5 trillion before the crisis for tax cuts and spending increases that were not justified. We are becoming dangerously numb to borrowing massive amounts of money.

    “Strong nations borrow when necessary, not when it is politically convenient. It is important for the future health of the economy that we are willing to pay for our priorities.”

    The US national debt is already unpayable.  As the government, boondoggles, crony capitalism, debt, spending, and money-printing all grow, gold and silver provide a time-tested means of withdrawing from the doom loop.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today.

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    US Mint Can’t Meet Demand for Gold and Silver

    Republic Monetary Exchange Continues to Provide Immediate Delivery!

    The US Mint has been unable to meet strong demand for US gold and silver Eagle coins this year.

    Numismatic News has learned that the US Mint has not been able to acquire enough gold and silver bullion at the widely quoted benchmark spot or “paper” gold prices to meet the market’s demand for the popular coins it produces.

    That means the “spot” or “paper” prices do not accurately reflect actual supply and demand conditions for real physical gold and silver.  The prices of real precious metals and paper instruments have diverged.

    According to Numismatic News, “The U.S. Mint thus far in 2021 has been unable to produce sufficient gold and silver American Eagles to meet continuing strong public demand. Retailers are now often quoting delivery days of as much as three to four weeks after payment or have often been forced to stop selling these coins altogether.

    Gold American Eagle Bullion Coins US Mint

    So, while the US Mint cannot meet demand, some dealers are taking money and promising delivery sometime, somewhere down the road.

    They say pay them now, but it will be weeks before they can come up with your silver.  

    We strongly advise against doing business on that basis.  At Republic Monetary Exchange we subscribe to best practices for our clients’ protection and profit.  We anticipate changing market conditions, so we have both gold and silver available for immediate delivery.  On the spot.

    Numismatic News reports that the shortages for physical gold and silver “have been rampant for more than a year now.”

    We believe that chronic shortages of actual physical gold and silver mean that higher prices are right around the corner.  This is especially so in the current environment with demand for both US gold and silver bullion coins surging.

    us mint coins
    Silver and Gold Eagles from the US Mint

    Numismatic News:

    “In the year 2018, the U.S. Mint sold 245,500 ounces of gold among the four sizes of the bullion-issue gold American Eagles. In 2019, sales of these four coins fell to 152,000 ounces. With the surge in gold prices last year, sales rose to 844,000 ounces. Through Tuesday this week, the Mint’s year-to-date sales of these gold American Eagles were 387,500 ounces.

    “The news was similar for the bullion-priced silver Eagle dollars. Mint sales in 2018 totaled 15,700,000, another 14,863,500 in 2019, jumped to 30,089,500 in 2020 and was at 10,288.500 in 2021 year-to-date as of Tuesday this week (March 16, 2021).”

    Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today.   What do we mean by “best practices and policies for our clients?” It means immediate delivery of gold and silver on the spot.  No waiting.  No risk.  And when you need to liquidate, get immediate payment as well.

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    Things Just Got Much Worse for the Global Dollar

    Mark this moment as one when the fate of the global currency reserve dollar took a turn for the worse.  The Washington foreign policy establishment just drove its most important adversaries into a marriage of convenience with one another, binding them together in a defensive union against US global hegemony and hastening the end of the dollar’s special privilege.

    No more slow-walking.  The dollar will now begin racing to its fate.  

    Although they have been divided by a 2,600-mile border that has come close to erupting into open warfare in the past, today Russia and China have mutually agreed-upon boundaries and the countries are key trading partners.  (Vladivostok, the Russian port city on the Pacific may long be in contention; it is closer to Japan than to Moscow. But for now, it is a back-seat issue.)

    Russia has always been on the frontline of the battle against Islamic terror and expansionism, a role that might have been exploited more wisely by the West over the last generation.  The irony is that it is the US foreign policy establishment that has sought to drive a wedge between Russia and the West, driving Russia into China’s arms, foolishly creating a new power-bloc.  China and Russia’s mutual cooperation is all the more notable today as US diplomatic influence around the world wanes.  

    Now hard on the heels of the failed US-China summit in Anchorage, the foreign ministers of China and Russia, Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov met.  No matter one’s viewpoint on foreign affairs, Lavrov must be regarded as one of the most skillful diplomats of our time:  well-informed and insightful, measured and unflappable, candid and well-spoken.  

    Accordingly, it is important to take note of Lavrov’s remarks in which he clearly called for moving away from the dollar in international trade now:

    “The United States has declared limiting the advance of technology in Russia and China as its goal. So, we must reduce our exposure to sanctions by strengthening our technological independence and switching to settlements in national and international currencies other than the dollar. We need to move away from using Western-controlled international payment systems.” (Emphasis added).

    We are not positioned to make foreign policy.  Our job is to help our friends and clients protect themselves and profit from events beyond our control.  But it appears to us that what we are witnessing on the international stage is something out of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War: attack your enemy when he is weak.   Because of the weakness implicit in the metastasizing of US debt and the ballooning of trillions of unbacked Fed dollars, this explicit challenge to the dollar’s global reserve comes at a time of maximum impact.  

    We have written about de-dollarization many times. In December, we noted a Financial Times piece on the history of world currency reserves. It wrote:

    Before the U.S., only five powers had enjoyed the coveted “reserve currency” status, going back to the mid-1400s: Portugal, then Spain, the Netherlands, France and Britain. Those reigns lasted 94 years on average.” 

    Now the dollar has had about a 100-year run as the go-to currency.  That is about as long as any reserve currency seems to last.  

    But while national currencies come and go, gold endures.  

    We invite you to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist to find out why owning precious metals is your first line of defense against global de-dollarization.

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    The Inflation Chickens are Coming Home to Roost

    Big Changes are Coming to America

    “The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.”

    Attributed to Lenin by J.M Keynes

    Now that the currency is being debauched, get ready for the reshaping of America!  

    From the New York Times:  

    “[President Biden’s} advisers are preparing a set of proposals intended to reshape the U.S. economy and other parts of American life (emphasis added).  If they pass, they will almost certainly have a more lasting effect on people’s lives than the virus-relief bill that Biden signed two weeks ago. And while the proposals include measures on health care and taxes, they are broader — more diffuse, a critic might say — than the top priorities of other recent presidents.”

    In addition to the infrastructure portion of the measure which is sold as mostly funding for highways, roads, bridges and government buildings, but is also windfalls for cronies, boondoggles for politicians, and above market pay for political constituencies, the New York Times says the Biden spending measures include funding for monthly payments to people who have children, “as well as a big expansion of paid family leave,” the expansion of Obamacare, making “pre-K universal for both 3- and 4-year-olds, through federal funding of local programs, and increasing funding for community colleges.”

    And that is before all the log-rolling and vote-buying that goes on in what used to be called the world’s greatest deliberative body.

    To sum up, the US has spent $6 trillion on boondoggle-laden stimulus/bailout measures since COVID-19 arrived on the scene.  And there is more of that kind of spending to come…

    … further debauching the dollar.  From Thesaurus.com, here are a few synonyms for “debauch” that fit its application to a currency:  abuse, betray, bastardize, ruin, subvert, vitiate.  

    And now the inflation chickens are coming home to roost:

    From the Wall Street Journal:

    “Lumber, one of the biggest costs in home-building after land and labor, has never been more expensive and is more than twice the typical price for this time of year. Crude oil, a starting point for paint, drainpipe, roof shingles and flooring, has shot up more than 80% since October. Copper, which carries water and electricity throughout houses, costs about a third more than it did in the autumn.”

    Today, instead of another chart of the spending, debt, and money printing, we’ll let a picture speak a thousand words.  The price of lumber, at an all-time high, is reported by the National Association of Homebuilders to be adding $24,000 to the price of a typical home.  

    See for yourself:

    When a wide spectrum of prices starts to climb, it is generally because the currency is being debauched.  When the currency fails, it threatens not just the economy, but the entire social order and the rule of law.  Informed people must take steps to protect themselves.

    Own gold yet?

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    This is “Bad Stuff” Says Steve Forbes

    “Tighten your seat belt!”

    That is the advice from publisher and one-time presidential contender Steve Forbes.  H is the editor-in-chief of the business magazine Forbes.

    “This is bad stuff, this massive printing of money,” says Forbes.  

    Forbes has always understood that gold needs to have a place in the monetary system.  Otherwise, the politicians are undiscipline and unrestrained.  

    If they are not tied down to the earth, they go floating away into economic outer space.

    Commenting on the Biden agenda on Newsmax TV earlier this year, Forbes warned that Washington is ignoring the real problem.  “The real danger is printing money,” Forbes said. “That’s going to lead to inflation. I’m surprised the markets haven’t woken up to that, but that’s going to mean higher interest rates, huge economic dislocations.”

    “This is bad stuff, this massive printing of money…. They just don’t know when to stop.”

    Forbes explained that wealth “come[s] from people creating real resources, not the government printing press.”

    Forbes foresees Carter era economic stagnation, higher prices, and interest rates from today policies.  “This is really going to do damage to the economy.” 

    “They don’t realize what’s coming. They think they can semi-socialize this economy, and they really believe we’re in an era where you can print money with no consequences.”

    “The Fed is going to have a crisis on its hands,” Forbes said.  “They think a little bit inflation is good.

    “They’re going to have a firestorm on their hands before the end of the year.”

    If the government will not take steps to stabilize the dollar, you must take steps to stabilize your own portfolio.  Contact Republic Monetary Exchange today and let one of our gold and silver professionals show y0u how to meet your personal profit and protection needs with precious metals.

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    Move Over COVID, Here Comes Inflation

    A majority of money managers in a recent survey say the coronavirus is no longer their number one concern.  Now they have something else to worry about:  inflation!

    It will be a relief to have COVID-19 off our minds.  But the inflation coming our way is a world-class wealth destroyer in its own right.

    A Bank of America-commissioned monthly survey of asset managers shows that inflation has displaced the coronavirus as the most important risk for investors.  37 percent of the investors list inflation as their top concern.  

    An Axios report says, “A net 93% of investors in the survey expect inflation to rise in the next 12 months, up 7 percentage points from last month and the highest reading in the history of the survey, which dates back to at least 1995.

    “53% of fund managers expect above-trend inflation along with above-trend growth over the next year, the first time that has happened since March 2011 and the third time in the history of the survey. “

    We see elsewhere that Google searches for “inflation” have jumped as well.  That only stands to reason, since the money supply has blown up 26 percent over the last 12 months.  All that new digitally “printed” money has to go somewhere.

    Heightened concerns about reviving inflation provide a good reminder to take advantage of any breaks in the gold and silver price to add to your portfolio.  The correction in gold prices may not last much longer.  The Covid-19 economy and global lockdown slowed the rush of central banks to add gold to their reserves.  But now, with economic conditions beginning to free up, the move to add to official gold stocks may soon resume.

    Poland’s central bank has just revealed that it has plans to make substantial additions to its gold to its reserves in the coming years.  In an interview last week (3/15) the bank’s governor, Adam Glapinski, said, “At the moment, we have 229 tons of gold.”

    “Over the course of a few years we want to buy at least another 100 tons of gold and keep it in Poland as well.”

    The growing holdings of central bank around the world are especially important to our friends and clients.  First, their purchases represent a major contributor to de-dollarization, removing support for the dollar’s exchange value.  Second, central banks buy gold for currency reserve in substantial quantities and hold their gold for the long-term.

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    US Debt

    Where Does the World Turn to as it “De-Dollarizes?”

    Hint:  It is a precious metal, gold in color, one that been honest money for thousands of years.   Hmmm…

    America’s European allies are fed up with being pushed around by Washington politicians.

    We have been telling you that for years, but now even the New York Times has noticed.

    De-dollarization is on display as central banks around the world move to add gold to their currency reserves.  (See our two-part posts Strange New Respect for Gold here and here.) 

    They are turning to gold because of the rank recklessness of US debt and Federal Reserve money printing.  They know this debt will never be repaid and that much more legalized dollar counterfeiting is inevitable. 

    But the monetary considerations are only part of the story.   

    Resentment and push-back against US diplomatic bullying figures in as well.  

    A New York Times piece, Europe Struggles to Defend Itself Against a Weaponized Dollar, (3/12/2021) provides details about this part of the story.

    A brief excerpt:

    “The American willingness to punish its European allies and impose sanctions on them in pursuit of foreign-policy goals continues to rankle.

    “It is an underlying tension, a ready reminder of the asymmetric power of the United States. That is especially so when it comes to what are known as secondary sanctions. While Iran and Russia, for example, maybe the primary target of sanctions, the secondary sanctions punish other countries and companies — very often European — that do business with them as well.”

    “Increasingly popular with Congress, secondary sanctions have been deployed to coerce allies to fall into line on any number of issues. In recent years, those have included the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, Iran’s nuclear program, and the socialist governments of Venezuela and Cuba. The great fear is that they would someday be used by the United States against China — or even vice versa — leaving Europe squeezed in the middle.”

    The cost of US sanctions is taking a big bite out of the business of some big players. The NYTimes story reports US sanctions on Iran cost the French energy giant Total of $2 billion in lost business, “while Siemens lost a rail contract worth $1.5 billion and Airbus lost $19 billion.”

    The US harms itself by hastening the end of the global dollar standard with this promiscuous use of sanctions.  In November we wrote that the SWIFT payments system, the leading international account settlement facility for world banks and commerce, is watching the US dollar share of its settlements decline. Since the US uses the SWIFT system as a tool of its foreign policy and sanctions enforcement, important new alternatives to bypass SWIFT are coming online.  

    At a time the US needs all the foreign creditors it can get, it is making the dollar – and our country – an object of foreign resentment.  

    It reminds us of Ron Paul’s observation about the growing resentment, that when the US does have a meaningful financial crisis and needs international support of one kind or another, we may experience more piling-on than support.

    The take-away is that the movement away from the dollar will grow from today’s pace into a sudden stampede.  Take to heart the example of the foreign central banks that are moving their assets into gold.  

    We can help you do the same with a sensible plan and portfolio designed for your personal needs.  It is what we do for our clients.

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    Interest(ing) Facts

    Why US dollar debt is beyond control!

    Thomas Jefferson declared that public debt is “the greatest danger to be feared.” 

    “I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues,” he declared. Perhaps Jefferson’s strongest admonition on the issue came in these wise words: 

    “We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt,” he said. “We must make our election between economy and liberty or profusion and servitude.”

    Oh, Tom!  That is so yesterday.  Now we have really visionary people running things.  People like Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Jerome Powell.  Times have changed!

    Okay, so the iron laws of interest rates and compounding have not really changed, and a country can be swallowed by debt just as completely as Jonah was said to have been swallowed by the apocryphal whale.

    The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget tends to see things more Jefferson’s way.  Interest rates may be low for the time being, but because the federal debt is humongous, interest expense is nearly 9 percent of revenue, or $2,400 per household.  

    Then what happens, asks CRFB, when interest rates rise?  Good question, and they just might rise since we currently have the lowest interest rates in 4,000 years.  Here is what CRFB calculates will happen as interest rates normalize:

    • Each one percent rise in the interest rate would increase FY 2021 interest spending by roughly $225 billion at today’s debt levels. Growing debt levels not only add to the likelihood of such increases, but also the cost and risk associated with them.
    • The federal government is projected to spend just over $300 billion on net interest payments in fiscal year 2021. This amount is more than it will spend on food stamps and Social Security Disability Insurance combined. It is nearly twice what the federal government will spend on transportation infrastructure, over four times as much as it will spend on K-12 education, almost four times what it will spend on housing, and over eight times what it will spend on science, space, and technology.
    • If interest rates were one percent higher than projected for all of 2021, interest costs would total $530 billion — more than the cost of Medicaid. If rates were two percent higher, interest costs would total $750 billion, which is more than the federal governments spends on defense or Medicare. And at three percent higher, interest costs would total $975 billion — almost as much as is spent on Social Security benefits. On a per-household basis, a one percent increase in the interest rate would increase costs by $1,805, to $4,210. [emphasis added].

    Figures in billions of dollars.

    As we write, the 10 US 10-year Treasury yields about 1.5 percent.  That is almost 3 percent below the 10-year rate’s long-term average.  So, to make conceptualizing the problem easy, image if the interest rate on the entire US $28 trillion debt portfolio were five percent.  That would be annual interest of $1.4 trillion — instead of the $300 billion cost today.    

    Q:  How does a terminally indebted country come up with another trillion dollars plus each year?

    A:  By printing the money!

    Here’s Jefferson again: “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

    Gee, maybe old Tom was not so yesterday after all.

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    $30 Trillion, Here We Come!

    There is a lot of backslapping going on in the White House and on at least one side of the aisles in the House and Senate with the passing of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion “stimulus” bill.

    There was more than backslapping on one of the cable news channel’s coverage of the bill’s passage.  They added finger-wagging and tongue-clucking.  They were completely indignant that anyone could have opposed a bill that “the majority of the people wanted.”

    Okay.  We don’t often wade into the swamps of what passes for good government these days.  It’s too mucky.  We prefer to stay focused on helping our friends and clients protect themselves from what government is doing to them.  

    But the question comes to mind, what is the point of having a deliberative body if it all comes down to what “the majority of the people want”?  If that is all it is about, we really didn’t need Washington, Franklin, Jefferson, Adams, or Madison.

    But still, it is true that most of the people want a check from the government. 

    Big surprise.  

    One of these days very soon, there will be a straw that breaks the back of the government’s credit camel.  One day they will go to far, the market will decide that America’s bonds are as sketchy as an IOU from Bernie Madoff.  And then it won’t be possible for Washington to borrow any more… at least at interest rates that aren’t astronomical.    

    And that day is fast approaching.  That’s why the farsighted are investing in gold and silver.

    But judge for yourself.  The numbers just keep getting bigger and bigger!  Here are a few:

    The first five months (October through February) of the fiscal year 2021 included:

    • record federal spending of $2,482,988,000,000. 
    • a record deficit, too, of $1,046,654,000,000.

    CNSNews.com

    It is the first time the deficit exceeded a trillion dollar in the first five months of a fiscal year.

    In the meantime, the official on-the-books US national debt (which is really only part of the entire debt) just hit $28 trillion.  

    And then the Biden stimulus bill was passed, the one that has Washington and the mainstream media celebrating.  So, we’re headed to a $30 trillion national debt.

    Where is all that Biden stimulus spending going?  Most of it is pork.  Here are a couple of details from the Washington Examiner:

    • Less than 9% goes to combating COVID-19.
    • Twenty-seven percent (or more than $500 billion) goes to state and local governments.
    • Twenty-one percent (or approximately $400 billion) goes to policies that reduce private-sector employment.
    • $135 million for the National Endowment for the Arts.
    • $135 million for the National Endowment for the Humanities.
    • $200 million for the Institute of Museum and Library Services.
    • $12 billion for foreign aid.

    So far, Washington’s stimulus bills cost $17,000 per taxpayer, or $69,000 per family. But we’re just getting started.  There is a lot more Biden spending coming our way.  For example, the Biden infrastructure proposal is now expected to come in as high as $4 trillion over ten years.

    Things are beginning to spin out of control.  Why not make an appointment with one of our precious metals professionals and take steps to protect yourself and your family?

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    Ron Paul: “Two Things You Need to Do”

    There are two things you need to do:  Protect yourself from the coming crisis.  And help end the Fed and get the government under control.

    That is the advice from former congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul.

    It will be a long time before anybody in congress knows as much about money and markets as Dr. Paul.  You should know that when he talks about protecting yourself and your family from a financial crisis, he means with gold and silver.

    We will get to Dr. Paul’s own words in a moment.  But here is what is going on.  Federal debt is now over $28 trillion dollars.  The deficit just last year was $3.1 trillion.  The Fed had to print trillions of dollars to keep the government funded.

    As Dr. Paul and the Congressional Budget Office note, this will be two years in a row that the federal debt exceeds the productivity of the entire country, the Gross Domestic Product.  

    That is not good.

    The CBO is now forecasting a $2.3 trillion deficit for this year.  But that does not begin to include everything Washington wants to spend money on.  The Biden “stimulus” package is almost $2 trillion dollars.  Then so-called “infrastructure” package could reach $4 trillion over ten years.  And there are all the demands of the big government, big spending constituents that Biden owes his election to.  They all want something.  Free something.

    That is where the Federal Reserve comes in.  Chairman Powell recently said, “Well, so what we said about the bond-buying program is that it will continue at least at the current pace… [emphasis added].  

    The Fed’s current pace is printing $120 billion a month.  Made up money.  Unbacked.  Digital bookkeeping entries.  Fiat money.  $120 billion a month is the current pace.

    Here’s a link to Ron Paul’s most recent weekly column.  We think the last two paragraphs deserve to be featured by us:

    “Unless the government changes course, America will experience a crisis greater than the Great Depression. The crisis will include a final rejection of the dollar’s world reserve currency status. There will also be much increased price inflation. At that point Congress will have no choice but to limit spending, although it will try to hide cuts in popular entitlement programs by ‘adjusting’ government measures of inflation. Congress could then blame the Fed for the reduction in value of government benefits.

    “Those who know the truth have two responsibilities. First, ensure they and their families are protected when the crash comes. Second, redouble efforts to spread the ideas of liberty and grow the liberty movement so politicians are pressured to cut spending and debt and to end the Fed.”

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    Money Pump!

     The Wall Street Journal headline said it all: “Powell Confirms Fed to Maintain Easy-Money Policies.”

    The Drudge Report headline said the same thing, “Fed Vows More Pump as Inflation Fears Take Hold,” but it added a picture of Monopoly money. 

    Nice touch.

    “We expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we will see inflation move up through base effects,” Powell said.  “That could create some upward pressure on prices.”

    Jerome Powell

    So, with the lockdown winding down and the economy starting to pick up from its deeply distressed COVID recession, interest rates are moving up.  They will do that coming out of a recession.  But even though there is evidence all around that price inflation is about to make an appearance, the Fed intends to keep printing money.

    A scramble for general liquidity hits the gold market for a while (creating a buying opportunity in our view).  That is because gold is the most liquid of all commodities.  Wall Streeters and hedge funders sell it to raise cash when they get margin calls on their bond portfolios.  Then they buy it back later.

    These guys are in and out and turn on a dime, buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon.  Parking money in one place on Monday and then somewhere else on Tuesday.  These are the same guys that had to sell gold in the mortgage meltdown for the same reasons – margin calls – just before gold skyrocketed to all-time highs!  These are the same guys who sold gold last year in the early stage of the pandemic pandemonium just before gold once again rocketed to even higher highs!

    But for the rest of us, since we are not getting margin calls, it is just a lot of market noise.  Especially because the money pump is going to start running at levels never before seen.  

    Consider:

    The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus bill pork bill is working its way through the Senate.  There is no way to fund it except by running the presses.  The Fed should be a cautionary voice about being cornered into printing even more than it already has, but contrary to all reason Treasury secretary Yellen, the former Fed chairman, and Powell, the Fed head now, are both cheerleading massive new deficit spending.  (Don’t they know they will take the blame when the currency breaks down?)  

    Goldman Sachs believes that the new Biden infrastructure proposal pork proposal will total $2 trillion – “and potentially even double that,” writes one news source.  Same story:  no money to pay for it, except for freshly printed digital dollars.  

    “Investors are having a ‘crisis of confidence in the Fed,” reads a Yahoo News headline.  

    They ain’t seen nothing yet.

    Thank goodness for gold and silver. 

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    Watch Out for the Wealth Tax!

    “If the wealth tax passes, go out and buy yourself some gold because people are going to rush to find ways of hiding their wealth.”

    That’s the advice form Leon Coopeman,  It doesn’t matter to him that much if the government takes away rich people’s money, because he already has plans to give his fortune away.

    But it matters to the country.  “I’m a better capital allocator than the U.S. government,” says Cooperman.

    That’s true.  Investors are determined to find productive places to put their money.  They aren’t always successful, but they want to earn a return, so they need to find opportunities that generate more wealth.  

    Politicians, on the other hand, are generally looking to buy votes.  The money they get their hands on goes straight to consumption. 

    But production precedes consumption.  Consumption is totally dependent on somebody first producing something. 

    C.ooperman is a billionaire hedge fund manager.  His fund, Omega Advisors, didn’t make money for its clients, or make Cooperman rich, by consuming the money they placed with Omega.  They had to find way to make it productive.

    Individuals are always better allocators of wealth than governments.  

    Now Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are pushing a new wealth tax that would levy a tax of two or three percent on the very biggest fortunes in the country.  

    That’s how socialism gets a foot in the door.  It promotes policies designed to “get the rich.”  But they end up getting everybody.  Ever heard the phrase “bracket creep”?  It referred to the way that years of inflation pushed people into higher and higher tax brackets on phantom increases in their real income.  Soon the middle class were paying tax rates that were designed to get the rich.

    Since a wealth tax taxes existing capital, not income, the subjects of a wealth tax would have to pay it out of their current income.  That means less total investment out of current income year after year; or if their current income is not sufficient to pay the wealth tax, it means the liquidation of some of their capital year after year to meet the tax bill.  In either case it means less investment capital.

    Socialists love the smell of class warfare in the morning.  But their victims do not.  So, face it, many of the wealthy will just pack up and leave.  Taking their wealth with them.  Leaving America less well capitalized.  

    Cooperman says, “We’ve got to decide whether we’re a capitalist nation or a socialist nation.”  Look at the people in the Biden administration.  Look at congress.  It is clear that we are headed down socialism’s desolation road.

    We have described gold before as capital on strike.  Cooperman says, “If the wealth tax passes, go out and buy yourself some gold because people are going to rush to find ways of hiding their wealth.”

    But it is not just the wealth tax.  The more socialism we get, the more people are going to buy gold to protect themselves and their hard-earned money.  

    You shouldn’t wait for the wealth tax.

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    The Fed Has Painted Itself Into a Corner

    The Fed really has America’s monetary situation screwed up.  

    Badly.

    The last three Fed chairmen have printed money to beat the band:  Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell.

    They have done the work of three men:  Larry, Moe, and Curly.

    The Fed itself and the lapdog financial press call what the Fed has done under this hapless threesome many things:  Quantitative Easing, open market operations, yield curve control, debt monetization, liquidity operations, demand management, repurchase agreements, TARPing, deficit accommodation… and probably other names we can’t even remember.

    But it is all money printing.  It will eventually destroy the dollar and bring the US economy crashing down with it.  That’s because money printing creates no new wealth.  It only debauches the value of the currency, while a dependable currency is a necessary condition for a strong, dynamic, prosperous economy.

    Right now, the Fed is buying $120 billion a month with made-up money.  At the same time, Washington’s deficits are out of control, and yet it has another $1.9 trillion stimulus package on the drawing boards

    We have shared the following chart before.  It shows Fed assets, the total amount of things like government bonds that the Fed purchased with money it just conjured electronically out of nothing.  We still call it money printing because that is how it was all done not so long ago.

     

    On the day Bernanke was put in charge of the Federal Reserve, on February 1, 2006, its assets had been fairly stable, growing slowly.  They totaled $832 billion.   Think about that.   At that moment, the Fed had been in existence for 93 years, after all of which its assets were less than $900 billion.  Now, just 16 short years later, its assets have exploded to $7.590 trillion!  

    Under Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, the Fed’s assets have grown more than 800 percent.

    That is a lot of money printing.

    Today the Fed is purchasing $120 billion of bonds a month (by printing the money, needless to say).  This is intended to keep interest rates down.  

    But it is not working.  Interest rates are moving up.  Last August the yield on the US 10 year treasury was 0.52 percent.  A week ago, it reached 1.54 percent.  It climbed a full percent in six months.  How much more money-printing, asset purchases must the Fed implement to keep interest rates from rising?

    No one knows.  But the Fed can’t let rates rise for long.  The cost of a two percent increase on outstanding US debt, now $28 trillion, is $56o billion a year.  

    Besides the inescapable fact is that the more money the Fed prints, the higher rates will eventually go.  Because eventually investors will demand an interest rate premium over the rate of inflation.  So, the more the Fed prints to keep rates down, the less the dollar will be worth.  And the higher rates will go, compounding the debt beyond comprehension.

    All of this is implicit and inevitable in what these Fed chairmen have done.  Imagine, all that expensive education, graduate schooling, and fancy degrees, and they know less than nothing about what they have done.

    Buy gold and get the heck out of the way of Larry, Moe, and Curly’s train wreck.

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    The Fed Heads to a Crypto Dollar

    Do you have assets that are off the grid?

    Developing a digital currency is a “high priority project for us,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told congress last week.

    “We are committed to solving the technology problems, and consulting very broadly with the public and very transparently with all interested constituencies as to whether we should do this,” Powell said.

    Sure.  As we reported to you on this development last year, a Fed crypto-currency dollar “is as good a reason as any to protect your wealth with gold.”

    “The Fed’s new digital currency is a variation – although a much more threatening one – on old-fashioned money printing: the issuance of currency unbacked by anything real.  Money-printing governments at least have the logistics of paper and ink to slow their emission of evermore fresh fiat currency.  State digital crypto-currency issuers will have no such complications to slow their currency creation.”

    China is way down the road on a crypto-digital currency.  That is what you would expect for a totalist surveillance state.  It fits right in with China’s “social credit” goals:  as it watches what its people do, it awards them merits or demerits.  Voice opinions or engage in behavior the state does not like and the poor citizen finds he cannot fly, travel, buy property, have credit, or get a job.  

    Such a social credit system is a much more efficient means of exercising total control than trying to put a bullet in the heads of each of millions of people.  China has already tested its digital crypto currency in three cities.  

    The American version of a social credit system is not quite as far along.  But statist opportunists are taking steps down that road, proposing forbidding air travel or restaurant dining by people who can’t produce their vaccine records.  

    It’s a start.

    There are plenty of good reasons for people to use cash.  They may be concerned about banks closing or the power grid failing.  They may want to protect their privacy in an age of identity theft and widespread digital account hacking.

    A war on cash rhymes with a war on gold.  As the old Swiss saying had it, “good money is coined freedom.”  And there is no better coinage than gold.

    Isn’t it time to make sure you have money out of the government’s destructive control and off the government’s grid, since you know where that is headed?

    We recommend that you use this correction in precious metals prices to provide yourself and your family a safety net of assets that are off the grid.

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    The Money Boom

    Here is an illustration from a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke (2/21/21) called “The Money Boom Is Already Here.”

    It shows Washington pumping a lot of money into the canyons of Wall Street.  The sub-headline reads, “Since February 2020, the M2 supply has increased 26%—the largest one-year jump since 1943.”

    We are glad the nation’s largest financial paper finally took notice of the money bubble.  We have been writing about the growth of the money supply pretty much continuously, including:  

    A GIFT TO INVESTORS 2021-2-20

    GOLD ALWAYS WINS IN THE END!  2021-2-9 

    23.6 PERCENT OF ALL US DOLLARS WERE CREATED IN THE LAST YEAR!  2020-10-18

    THE NEW STAGFLATION DECADE!  2020-9-13

    There have been many others.  Here is a chart we published earlier this month showing the way gold tracks the increasing money supply.

    We commented, “If appears now that gold has some catching up to do.”

    Greenwood and Hanke write, “Speculative manias are in the air, as evidenced by the recent price surges for bitcoin, a digital asset with a fundamental value of zero, and GameStop, a declining retailer. Along with the other economic trends—a strong recovery, surging commodity prices and an uptick in inflation—those asset bubbles have a clear cause: the massive expansion of money and credit.

    “Yet America’s fiscal and monetary masters are turning a blind eye…

    “The looming danger for the economy isn’t only that the monetary printing presses have been in overdrive since the pandemic began, but also that they are already set for the same in 2021. A monetary surge for this year is locked in…

    So we already know that the money supply will likely increase by at least another $2.3 trillion over the current year. In other words, even without any new lending or further purchases of securities by banks, the M2 money supply will grow by nearly 12% this year. That’s twice as fast as its average growth rate from 2000-19. It’s a rate that spells trouble—inflation trouble.”

    The great economist Ludwig von Mises had an evocative name for the end stages of what Greenwood and Hanke call “the money boom.”

    He called it ‘The Crack-Up Boom.”

    “But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

    “It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.”

    Do not wait for the Crack-Up Boom to appear to start buying gold and silver.  Take steps to protect yourself and your hard-earned wealth today before it is too late.

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    Is the Dollar the New Big Short?

    Michael Burry, made famous in the movie about the bursting of the mortgage bubble The Big Short, has gone on a tweetstorm warning about looming US inflation.

    Burry, who was played by Christian Bale in the movie, made himself and the investors in his fund hundreds of millions of dollars by shorting mortgage credit instruments.  In his new warnings about inflation, Burry is not talking about just a little inflation.  Between Modern Monetary Theory policies, unconstrained debt, and money supply growth, Burry is citing the precedent of the historic Weimar Republic hyper-inflation the brought Germany low a hundred years ago.

    The evidence for the return of inflation is all about us.  Just days ago, we reported on the big jump in the Producer Price Index and that food prices climbed 3.9 percent higher last year.  

    We also reported recently on the rising prices of building supplies here.

    We have written repeatedly about Stephen Roach’s crucial warning of the collapse of the dollar’s value.

    But now other news on the price inflation front is coming so fast and from so many places that it will soon be hard to keep up.

    Shipping and trucking rates are soaring.  New and used vehicle prices are climbing. Gas prices are up almost 25 percent in just the last few months.  (Biden will eventually pay a political price for halting construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.)

    Import prices are reflecting the dollar’s weakness.  Import prices rose 1 percent in December and 1.4 percent in January.  

    This week a Wall Street Journal piece confronted the fact that the Federal Reserve’s inflation metrics underreport asset inflation and housing inflation.  

    For example, the following graphic shows the “owner’s equivalent rent” metric that is used in calculating the housing component of the Consumer Price Index, compared to the Case-Shiller index of national home prices, which has turned sharply higher.

    We think Michael Burry is right again.  Each new federal budget, each deficit dollar spent, each act of liquidity injection and stimulus by the Fed is another step in the devaluation of the dollar.  The US dollar is “the big short” of our age.

    Let us help you protect yourself and profit from looming price inflation.  Owning gold (and silver) is the easiest and safest way that we know of being short the dollar.

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    A Gift for Investors

    Gold on sale, just as inflation returns!

    It is like a gift from the gods, a smile and a nod from the fates, or maybe just a fortunate coincidence.  Whatever you call it, gold is on sale at the least likely time – just when inflation is starting to rear its ugly head.

    Let us start with inflation.

    The evidence in coming in from far and wide that price inflation is beginning to leak out into the consumer economy.  It probably did not come as a big surprise to whoever does the grocery shopping in your household, but food prices rose 3.9 percent last year, close to twice the Federal Reserve’s targeted inflation rate.

    But we are just getting started.   

    On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index jumped 1.3 percent for the month of January.  (Try annualizing that!)

     It was the biggest monthly increase since December 2009, with the hike led by its wholesale energy component in which prices surged 5.1 percent.  Americans working from home may be driving less, but everything they buy depends on transportation, so rising energy prices soon show up elsewhere.  

    By the way, the consensus of economist for the PPI was that it would show an increase of only 0.4 percent, less than a third of the final number.

    Meanwhile we cannot resist showing you the explosive rise in the US Money Supply once again.

    M2 has risen by more than 25 percent over the last 12 months!  As someone said, “All that money has to go somewhere!”
    And it appears that it is about to go everywhere!   
    Vehicles, homes, even interest rates are rising to reflect the diminishing value of the dollar.  While there is ample additional evidence of prices beginning to rise rapidly, one of the most historically sensitive indicators of rising price inflation is copper.  Copper has almost doubled since its March low.
    When prices rise across the economy it is an indication that the currency is failing as a store of value.  That should be no surprise.  It is the Federal Reserve’s explicit policy intent for the dollar to fail as a store of value.  When the rate of its failure suddenly increases or rises above a threshold that is considered a nuisance, people begin to trade their dollars for a superior store of value.
    Gold!
    That is why we are grateful that the market has conspired to give us a break in gold prices – short-lived though it may be – just as prices across the consumer economy are beginning to rise.  Or as we have said, as inflation begins to rear its ugly head.
    Here is a chart of the gold bull market that began by some estimations two and a half years ago, in August 2018.

    As you can see the bull market has paused several times along its powerful climb to catch its breath, including in both the spring and fall of 2019; with the COVID panic in the spring of 2020; and again, now when generalized price inflation is returning.  

    Because reversing the fundamentals of rising debt and reckless money printing is not even a subject of conversation in Washington or at the Fed, we think this juncture presents gold buyers an attractive acquisition opportunity.

    For more information, contact your Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional.

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    Real Silver

    If there was not a problem with paper money, there would be no reason to own gold and silver.

    If paper money was as good as gold and silver, then all the paper currencies that have failed throughout history would still be around.  

    Still around like gold and silver.

    Once again, we are experiencing some troubling conditions in the precious metals markets.  It is not the first time.  Once again, many dealers find themselves without supplies to deliver to their clients.  

    We saw the same kind of conditions last year at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

    And it will not be the last time.  We will see problems like this again.  That is because they reflect real problems in the economy.

    So, what is going on?  Once again, we are seeing shortages of real silver.

    Shortages of physical silver products, coins and bullion, are a replay of the shortages that occurred last year.  

    The United States Mint said just weeks ago that it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues.

    The price of real silver and paper silver substitutes have diverged.  The paper price is one thing, but you cannot get real silver at that paper silver price.  

    You can only get paper promises, while the premiums on real silver have risen.

    So, while the US Mint cannot meet demand, some dealers are taking money and promising delivery sometime, somewhere down the road.

    They say pay them now, but it will be weeks before they can come up with your silver.  

    That is a bad idea!  Do not do that!

    Once again at Republic Monetary Exchange, we have foreseen this situation.  

    We have real silver for immediate delivery.  On the spot.  

    If paper money held its value like gold and silver, we would not be having these problems.  That is why we recommend you take today’s market conditions as a warning to make sure you have an adequate position in precious metals.

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    Food Inflation

    Q:  What’s that on the horizon?

    A:  It sure looks like consumer price inflation.  But go to the grocery store and have a look for yourself.

    Here is the lead paragraph from a Bloomberg News story this week (2/16): “There are signs that the food inflation that’s gripped the world over the past year, raising prices of everything from shredded cheese to peanut butter, is about to get worse.”

    We have spent more time than we should explaining that inflation describes a behavior by the monetary authorities that debauches the value of currency over time.  Just last week we commented on it this way:

    “But just because the price of bread is not going through the roof today, don’t let the mainstream media or politicians tell you that there is no inflation or that the currency isn’t suffering devaluation.  That is because sustained price increases in any of those other places throughout the economy [dot com stocks in the 90s, housing prices in the early years of the 2000s, and stock and bond prices today] reflect state meddling or corruption of the supply of money and credit.” 

    “… Eventually the debauching of the money will show up in the price of bread… and in the price of everything else.”  (See Gold Always Wins in the End!)

    We didn’t have to wait long to see rising food prices hit the news.  The Bloomberg headline shouts, “The World Will Pay More for Meat as Food Inflation Deepens!”

    It explains, “Now farmers — especially ones raising cattle, hogs and poultry — are getting squeezed by the highest corn and soybean prices in seven years. It’s lifted the costs of feeding their herds by 30% or more. To stay profitable, producers including Tyson Foods Inc. are increasing prices, which will ripple through supply chains and show up in the coming months as higher price tags for beef, pork and chicken around the world.”

    It is really time to start making a paradigm shift in our thinking and language.  Buckminster Fuller thought it would make a big change in our understanding of things if, as we watched the breaking of dawn in the morning, we would realize that the rotation of the earth on its axis is actually turning the spot on which we stand toward the sun.

    We don’t actually know what the impact of Fuller’s suggestion would have on people’s thinking about things, but we do know it would be true.  By the same token, people should realize that as the price of gold goes up, they are actually seeing the purchasing power of the dollar go down.

    If people began to think in that way, they would soon realize that governments far and wide, and throughout time destroy their currencies.  That is why people who know this turn to gold and silver for protection.

    The politicians can’t print precious metals.

    If you visit the grocery store and discover food prices seem to be rising, contact a Republic Monetary Exchange professional right away and take steps to protect yourself with gold and silver.  

    Because the value of the dollar is going down.

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    The Silver Institute: “Silver Headed Higher”

    Forecasting higher demand, The Silver Institute, a trade association, says the outlook for silver in 2021 is “bright.”

    “The outlook for the silver price in 2021 remains exceptionally encouraging, with the annual average price projected to rise by 46 percent to a seven-year high of $30.00,” according to the Institute’s just released analysis.

    Silver’s average price in 2019 was 16.19 in 2019.  Last year saw a 27 percent increase, with an average annual price of $20.52.  For 2021, the Institute expects an average annual price of $30.00.  That represents a 46 percent increase over 2020.

    The report is calling for 2021’s silver demand to reach an eight-year high of 1.025 billion ounces, led by increasing industrial and physical investment demand.  “Industrial demand is projected to post a four-year high in 2021 of 510 million ounces, a 9 percent increase over 2020 figures,” according to the report.  

    Physical silver for investment, coins, and bars, is forecast to reach 257 million ounces, a six-year high.  

    stacked silver bars

    The photovoltaic sector bounced back from the pandemic slowdown in the second half of 2020 and is forecast to reach 105 million ounces in 2021.

    The Silver Institute also expects some recovery in global jewelry demand.  The 174-million-ounce forecast is still below pre-COVID-19 levels

    “Silver mine production output should recover and rise from the pandemic-affected 2020 level, achieving a double-digit gain this year to 866 million ounces, which would be the highest total since 2016. Most mines affected by COVID restrictions have re-started, with the recovery also benefiting from the re-opening of key mines affected by strike actions. Growth will also be driven by higher output from primary silver mines and by new projects in Mexico and Australia,” it reports.

    “Silver scrap supply is expected to rise for the fifth consecutive year, due in part to the strength in gold and silver prices, which will encourage industrial recycling. Jewelry and silverware recycling are also forecast to rise this year.” 

    The precious metals professionals at Republic Monetary Exchange can help you design a silver and gold portfolio that meets your needs.

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    When the Government Pays for Everything…

    …Gold Goes Up!

    We have been asking our friends and clients recently if they have invested for the Biden presidency.  In our new radio commercials, we point out that Biden and his supporters want the government to pay for everything.

    Everything!

    Now, we don’t want you to think we are exaggerating, so here’s the latest:  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have announced a federal package to fund funeral benefits for those who die with or of COVID-19.  

    $267 million will go to New Yorkers alone.

    People die from a lot of causes.  Some have even died from the effects of the government’s lockdown.  Schumer and AOC have not moved to pay for their funeral expenses.

    But let us be clear.  The government is not paying for those funerals.  Biden and his team are reaching into some people’s pockets to give money to other people, and then acting like the government is paying for it all.  But of course, the government has no money of its own.  Everything it spends it must first take from someone.

    When people become convinced by politicians like Biden, Schumer, and AOC that they can have something for nothing, their demands become endless.

    So, the politicians have money printed and the currency destroyed to further the illusion that they themselves are giving free stuff to everybody.

    That is why we are asking if you have invested for the Biden years.  Free stuff for everybody, even free funerals, is the name of the game.

    The Fed printed three trillion dollars last year.  That was under Trump, a conservative.

    Imagine what it will do now under Biden.

    Gold was up about 25 percent last year under Trump.  Imagine what it can do under Biden.

    Silver was up 48 percent last year.

    Imagine what it can do in the Biden-Harris years.

    If you have not yet invested for the “free stuff for everybody” Biden years, , speak with us today.  We help people protect themselves and profit with gold and silver.

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    Gold Will Always Win in the End

    The Labor Department reported Wednesday (2/10) that in the 12 months through January the Consumer Price Index rose 1.4 percent.  For the month of January, the CPI was up 0.3 percent.

    The mainstream media, whose personnel do not really know much about these things, chose to report this as news that inflation was “benign.”  We know from long experience that lawmakers and policymakers view it the same way:

    “Inflation means rising consumer prices. If consumer prices aren’t rising, there is no inflation.”

    It is too bad they think this way.  Their thinking is a source of confusion and policy error.  

    The economists of an earlier age were not so easily fooled.  The defined inflation as an increase in the supply of money and credit.  If money and credit were expanding, it was called inflation; if money and credit were contracting, it was called deflation.

    Individual prices rise and fall for many reasons, as they understood.  They knew that a rising price is not inflation.  It is simply a rising price.  

    If the price of oranges goes up because of a freeze in Florida, that is not inflation.

    If recent technological advances make new electronic miracles, like flat-screen HDTVs, more affordable, that is not deflation.  It is a drop in prices in one sector.

    This chart should be an eye-opener.  It shows M2, a widely used measure of the US money supply over the last five years (the green line).  As you can see it has exploded to the upside.  M2 has increase 26 percent over the last 12 months.  

    Nothing about that is “benign.”

    In the words of market commentator John Rubino, “All that extra money has to go somewhere.”  If the monetary authorities increase the supply of money and credit, prices will rise somewhere.  Exactly where it shows up first depends on many factors.  The inflation could show up in dot-com stocks (the late 90s); it could show up in housing prices (in the first decade of the 2000s); it could show up in financial assets like the stock and bond markets (now). 

    We have included the price of gold in this chart.  Because gold is a monetary commodity and reflects the destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power, over time growth in the money supply pulls gold along with it.  If appears now that gold has some catching up to do.

    But just because the price of bread is not going through the roof today, don’t let the mainstream media or politicians tell you that there is no inflation or that the currency isn’t suffering devaluation.  That is because sustained price increases in any of those other places throughout the economy reflect state meddling or corruption of the supply of money and credit.  

    Governments engage in these practices for several reasons.  They may wish to spend more and hide the increased taxation of the people by simply printing the money.  They may wish to devalue unpayable government debt by devaluing the unit of account of that debt and pay it down with cheaper money.  Or they may wish to subsidize powerful financial interests and cronies with an inside line on monetary interventions.

    Sometimes they may wish to do all those things at once.  But eventually the debauching of the money will show up in the price of bread… and in the price of everything else.  

    This discussion explains why governments hate gold.  They cannot print more gold or wave a policy wand and double the amount of gold in government warehouses.  Gold provides financial discipline on states and politicians.  

    In a showdown between corruptible government money and gold, gold always wins.

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    Did You Know?

    Did you know…

    That there have been no discoveries with more than two million ounces of minable gold since 2017? 

    That while the rate of growth changes along the way, Russia and China have been aggressively increasing their central bank gold holdings for years?  Russia’s central bank holds 2,299  tons of gold, China holds 1,948 tons. India, Turkey, and Mexico are among the emerging market nations that are adding to their gold positions as well.

    That the United States still leads the world in official gold reserves with 8,133.5 tons, or 261 million troy ounces?

    That more than 10,000 tons of private US gold was nationalized by President Franklin Roosevelt?

    That Stephanie Kelton, the leading proponent of Modern Monetary Theory – the money printing maniacs – thinks that the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus plan passed by the Senate should have been $3 trillion?  Because we have a printing press.

    That murder rates in dozens of American cities rocketed last year, up 30 percent over 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice? 

    That President Biden has officially withdrawn the nomination of Judy Shelton to join the Federal Reserve Board?   Shelton set entrenched Washington’s teeth on edge by talking about the merits of the gold standard.

    That Hawaii and Nevada have the highest unemployment rates in the country, 9.3 and 9,2 percent respectively?  That is according the December BLS numbers.  The lowest rates were in South Dakota and Nebraska, both at 3 percent.

    That the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a poor indicator for those interested in wealth preservation?  As we wrote recently, “DJIA’s composition has changed dozens of times over the years.  Companies that were once mainstays of American industry, companies that have longs since failed and disappeared have been dropped from the average and replaced over the years.  For example, long-standing DJIA heavyweight General Motors is missing in action from the index today, while Apple, a company that didn’t even exist 50 years ago, is today an important component of the Dow.”

    That Republic Monetary Exchange makes immediate delivery of gold and silver to its clients upon payment?  And that when you need to sell, we make immediate payment, too!

    That your Republic Monetary Exchange executive is an experienced precious metals consultant?  He is prepared to answer all your questions about using gold and silver for profit and protection in the Biden years.

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    U.S. Mint Struggling To Meet Demand for Gold and Silver Coins

    Republic Monetary Exchange “Best Practices” Mean Immediate Delivery!

    A Reuters news story sums it all up this way: “The United States Mint said on Tuesday (2/2/21) it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues.”

    us mint coins

    As the US government’s spending plans go unchecked and as the Federal Reserve continues to pump unbacked money into the economy at a frenzied pace, more Americans are seeking the protection gold and silver offer.  Last year sales of US gold bullion coins rose an astonishing 258 percent.  US silver bullion coin sales climbed 28 percent in 2020.

    The blistering pace continues in 2021.  In January, American G0ld Eagle sales were 290 percent higher than the same month a year earlier.  

    Heavy buying – what the Mint calls “continued exceptional market demand” – is only one part of the Mint’s difficulty.  Covid-19 restrictions have impeded supply chains as well.  

    US Mint

    The Mint is also redesigning US bullion coins for release this summer.  Its intent to have supplies of the new coins for the launch will also impinge on the production of bullion coins between now and then.

    Shortages of physical silver products, coins and bullion, are a replay of the shortages that occurred last year with the COVID-19 shutdown.  Once again, many dealers find themselves without supplies to deliver to their clients.  

    Just as Republic Monetary Exchange distinguished itself last year by continuing to make immediate delivery while others could only offer long delays, we again continue to make immediate delivery of precious metals to our clients despite the Mint’s struggles and even in the face of the potential silver squeeze the developed in conjunction with the Redditt/GameStop saga.

    Here at Republic Monetary Exchange, we always recommend best practices for our clients.  We do not think clients should be sending money to boiler room operators far away who cannot make immediate delivery.  Avoid the needless risk of placing and paying for orders elsewhere with dealers that are asking for advance payment and then promising delivery at some uncertain date in the future.  

    We have gold and silver in inventory.   

    You can buy today and take delivery today!  Isn’t that the way business should be done?  Protect your wealth in these times of economic upheaval.  Contact us today!

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    Inflation in the Banana Republics

    “At some point someone is going to make the obvious observation, which is that income inequality, which is making our country unstable, is being driven from one main source.  And that is the Federal Reserve, which is shoveling money to Wall Street, excluding most people from that payoff, and hurting a lot of people like savers in the process.

    “Maybe we’ll have that conversation at some point.  Hopefully soon.”

    We couldn’t have said it better ourselves, although we have said the same thing many times.  But those were the words of Fox News host Tucker Carlson on his show Monday evening (2/1/21). Carlson was wrapping up a segment on the GameStop Saga in which he commented on the concentration of wealth in this country, something that is inherently unstable in any country, and could not happen but for the monetary distortions authored by the central bank.

    It is not the first time in recent weeks that Carlson has pointed to the Federal Reserve behind the curtain of American economic disarray.  We hope he continues, and we hereby entitle him to use the reporting and analysis on our blog in his research.

    Hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer commented on the Fed’s role in America’s growing inequality, recently as well, referring especially after its massive monetary intervention in the mortgage meltdown:

    “I think the central banks came to enjoy their role of being Samson holding up the global financial system and economy. And they weren’t punished by consumer price inflation, they didn’t understand that this asset price inflation, which had a secondary or tertiary positive effect on growth and employment. But they didn’t understand that was a form of inflation, that that’s where the free money and the money printing went. And so they didn’t at all take into account that they were exacerbating the inequality that became a populist political theme.”

    Speaking of income inequality, here’s a peek at what the leading banana republics are doing these days.  Venezuela leads the pack in currency destruction, with an annual rate of 1,945 percent.  

    How do the money printing policies of banana republic central banks differ from our own?   The answer to that question is a persuasive reason to protect yourself and your family with gold and silver.  

    A Republic Monetary Exchange professional can provide you with valuable guidance.

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    Talk About Wealth Preservation, Part 2

    In our last commentary, Talk About Wealth Preservation!  Part I, we made the point that wealth preservation, even for a single century, cannot be trusted to paper currency.  On the contrary, paper money’s track record for preserving value is beyond dismal.  Gold’s performance is superior.  

    Gold stands the test of time.

    Perhaps someone will object, insisting that a hundred-year investment in premium stocks denominated in dollars is an even better means of wealth preservation.  That is a popular idea, endlessly promoted by stock brokerage houses.  

    We object to that nonsense by simply pointing out that the best-known index of the stock market’s performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been around for 125 years.  It was originally an average of 12 stocks but was adjusted to an average of 30 stocks 93 years ago.  Yet too often unnoted is that the DJIA’s composition has changed dozens of times over the years.  Companies that were once mainstays of American industry, companies that have longs since failed and disappeared have been dropped from the average and replaced over the years.  For example, long-standing DJIA heavyweight General Motors is missing in action from the index today, while Apple, a company that didn’t even exist 50 years ago, is today an important component of the Dow.  

    Gold IRA with physical gold

    The point is that while the DJIA may be a useful indicator of something about the US economy, it is not a useful measure of long-term wealth preservation.

    On the other hand, gold is the world’s premier tool of wealth preservation.  And not just for a century, as we described in our prior post, but for thousands of years.

    Gold is one of the least reactive chemical elements.  Of the noble metals (differentiated from the base metals), it is the noblest, resisting corrosion and oxidation like silver and platinum. So resistant to corrosion is it that when pirated treasures are recovered from the ocean floor after hundreds of years, the gold coins retain the shine and luster they had the day they slipped into the watery depths.

    We think gold’s durability and incorruptibility are in some way analogous with its performance as money. 

     Just months ago, an archaeologist with the help of a local priest uncovered a medieval treasure of 6,500 gold rings, silver ingots, and silver coins in a Polish cornfield.  The 900-year-old hoard intact, although it was simply wrapped in linen in a basket inside a ceramic vessel.  All that ancient wealth was completely preserved through the centuries.

    The Polish “zlotny” is the official currency of that part of the world today.  We simply cannot bother to track how many iterations of the zlotny there have been, even in modern times.  In any case, like the US dollar, it has not been a good means of wealth preservation.

    Unlike precious metals, which are the incorruptible enduring money of the ages.  We hope these commentaries about wealth preservation will encourage you to preserve wealth for yourself and your family during these increasingly risky times.

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    Talk About Wealth Preservation, Part 1

    Suppose a hundred years ago some far-sighted benefactor, someone a few generations back, wanted to leave some wealth for their descendants – including you.  Would you be better off if they left you $10,000 cash in bills or $10,000 in gold?

    A hundred years ago American money was gold. Americans commonly carried and conducted commerce in $20 gold pieces.  They were the coins of the realm.  But if you thought carrying them around – especially in great quantities – was inconvenient, you could use paper money.  A US $20 note issued by the Treasury was just a claim check, or a warehouse receipt for gold.  If you wanted to, you could walk into any bank or go to the Treasury and exchange that paper $20 note for real gold.  No questions asked.

    So your benefactor would have had a choice.  Which would you have wanted then to leave, paper or gold?

    You probably don’t have to think about it too hard.  The US dollar has lost about 95 percent of its purchasing power since 1921.  (Someone naïve argued about that with us once.  “That’s impossible,” he said.  But figure it out for yourself.  If inflation reduces the purchasing power of the dollar by just two percent this year, and three percent the year before… add in more than a few years of double-digit inflation along the way, and soon you will find that the loss of purchasing power really adds up!)

    As for the $20 gold piece, it contained just a little less than an ounce of gold, .9675 ounces to be exact.  Based on a recent gold price of $1,840, just the gold content of a $20 gold piece would be $1,780 ($1,840 x .9675 = $1,780).

    So the price of gold has increased 89 times!  Think about that in percentage terms.  Your gold has increased 8,900 percent!  An average of 89 percent a year!

    (The story is even better than that because, thanks to their rarity, desirability, and for other reasons, investors and collectors prize those beautiful coins beyond just their gold content.  Ask your Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional about this.)

    As for the paper money?  Well, it lost most of its purchasing power.  That is the common fate of unbacked paper money throughout time.

    So by now, even if you had never thought about our question before, you will have doubtlessly concluded that you would have wanted your would-be benefactor a hundred years ago to leave you real gold instead of paper money.  

    Our story says something about real money and wealth preservation in this day and age. 

    But it is only part of the story of wealth preservation.  In our next post we will fill in the rest of the story with details about the durability of gold and silver through long ages.  And we will tell you a story about the recent discovery of a treasure of gold and silver from 900 years ago. 

    Don’t miss TALK ABOUT WEALTH PRESERVATION!  Part II.

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    The Road to Financial Perdition

    “We’re in the throes of the greatest monetary inflation in U.S. history. Things have come home to roost – we just haven’t realized it yet. Fed liquidity is masking deep structural impairment, while Trillions necessary to stabilize a fragile Bubble Economy only push the runaway financial Bubble to more precarious extremes.”

    Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin

    We have pointed out more than once that the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner. 

    It is much more dangerous than the metaphor suggests about some oaf not realizing that he has himself surrounded by wet paint.  

    The Fed has taken on the role of the guarantor of the stock market and the net worth of billionaire cronies.  If it lets interest rates rise, it will tank the stock market at the same time rising rates will make servicing US debt virtually impossible.  But it cannot keep printing money to support stocks with low rates without eventually tanking the dollar.

    It is apparent that the choices before the Fed are both unacceptable.  Most people have not realized it yet, but it is beginning to make knowledgeable people squirm.  

    Hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer said in a recent interview that we are in for a big surprise on the inflation front.  

    But let us be clear about the point he is making: rising inflation means cheaper dollars, dollars that will not buy as much of anything, be it groceries or gold.

    Singer:

    “I think there’s a really good chance, given the determination to spend trillions and trillions more on COVID relief, and stimulus, whatever you want to call it, to guarantee, quote, unquote, which is ridiculous, these super low interest rates for the next three years, and to keep verbally boxing themselves in. I think there is a really good chance of a tremendous surprise and a surprise in the relatively near future. What would that surprise be? Some combination of actual consumer price inflation bursting out and keeping on going. That would be a stunning development to central bankers.”

    Let us state it differently.  The Fed is willing to do anything – anything – to keep a lid on interest rates.  In just the last six months the Fed has purchased $400 billion dollars’ worth of US treasury instruments – notes and bonds – with money in conjured out of thin air, in its desperate and not particularly successful attempt to keep interest rates down. 

    It will print more to achieve its ends.  At the same time, the Fed is being forced to fund more and more of the US government’s debt.  Wall Street on Parade reports that at about this time last year, the Fed was the owner of 14.6 percent of all outstanding US treasury debt.

    That was last year.  Now the Fed owns 22.6 percent of all US treasury debt.  

    The Fed has painted itself into a corner.  If it insists that interest rates cannot rise, it must depreciate the dollar with money printing.  If it steps back from funding US debt, the Treasury will have to offer far higher interest rates to attract buyers.  And those higher rates will make it impossible to service the debt… without more money-printing.

    What does all this mean?   It means that after decades of monetary mismanagement, the dollar is on the road to perdition.  It is a road of no return.  

    It means that gold and silver are your safest alternatives for wealth protection and profit.

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    Buy Silver Now!

    Is Silver the New Oil?

    Silver was up 48 percent last year.  

    Now leading refineries and banks in Switzerland are telling their clients to expect even greater silver price increases by the end of 2021.

    Perhaps they are expecting four years of the most financially irresponsible administration in US history.

    That is just one of the reasons we are recommending you buy silver now, too.  

    But there is another reason.  Some people have begun calling silver “the new oil.”

    It is not hard to understand why.  Silver is a vital component of the burgeoning solar energy industry.  

    silver set to soar in 2018

    With the government tilting toward renewable energy with more stimulus spending and tax credits, demand for silver will grow stronger than ever.

    Citing growing green energy demand, Saxo Bank, the Danish investment bank, is predicting silver will climb to $50 this year: “Turbocharging the rise in the silver price in 2021 is the rapidly rising demand for silver in industrial applications, especially use in photovoltaic cells used in solar panel production. In fact, a real silver supply crunch is in the cards in 2021, and it frustrates the full-throttle political support for solar energy investments under a Biden presidency, the European Green Deal, and China’s 2060 carbon-neutral goal, among other initiatives.”   

    Silver American Eagle Coin

    Others in Europe calling for the sharply higher silver prices this year include the major Swiss precious metals refinery and fabricator MKS PAMP Group, which expects silver to reach $40 an ounce this year, and the German bank group Degussa.  It is calling for silver to rocket to $47 an ounce this year.

    Would you like to know more about silver for wealth preservation in times of governmental financial recklessness?  Are you interested in profit opportunities in silver with the growing demand for solar energy?  If so, contact a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

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    Janet Yellen

    The “Doom-Loopers” Take Over Washington

    Poor Joe Biden.  Democrats in control of both Houses of Congress.  Janet Yellen at the Treasury Department.  Jerome Powell at the head of the Federal Reserve.

    Biden has a retinue of “doom-loopers”.  And he doesn’t even know it.  

    Doom-looper Yellen testified at her confirmation hearing this week (1/19) that low-interest rates make Biden’s big spending plans affordable.  Along the way, Yellen made a perfunctory comment about the need for federal debt to be put on a “sustainable” path – eventually.  They all say that: “Eventually.”  But of course, like “someday,” “eventually,” never comes.

    More needs to be said about this.  Those low-interest rates that Yellen says excuse Poor Joe’s astonishing spending plans, come at the expense of more money printing, which, as a former Fed head herself, Yellen knows so well.  As the doom-loopers use low rates as an excuse for more debt, the debt level swells to the point that it becomes completely unmanageable when interest rates do rise.

    In other words, the doom-loopers will eventually discover that interest rates cannot be allowed to rise.  Their doom-loop is a trap of their own making.  They must try to keep a lid on rates in perpetuity, else the government will crack up on the reefs of bankruptcy when rates do normalize.

    But keeping a lid on rates requires ever-new levels of money-printing.  Which in turn erodes the future value of the dollar.  This means lenders will require a premium on interest rates to offset the ongoing devaluation caused by money printing.  

    And of course, to complete our description of the doom-loop, servicing that premium will require still more money printing.  Which further devalues… well, you get it.  There is no way out.

    That’s why Yellen should be the iconic face of the doom-loopers.  

    David Stockman describes the tenure that earned Yellen $2.3 million in speaking fees from places like Citibank:  

     “Yellen’s turn at the helm of the Fed between January 2014 and January 2018 resulted in an especially egregious descent into negative real money market rates and therefore a bonanza for Wall Street speculators and carry-traders. That’s because her four-year term occurred during month #55 through month # 103 of the longest business expansion in history.”

    “That interval is by all reckoning the sweet spot of the business cycle, meaning that if there was ever a time to dispense with heavy-handed monetary “stimulus” and allow honest price discovery to operate on Wall Street and interest rates to normalize, that was the time.”

    Yet what did Yellen do given that opportunity of prolonged growth?  Did she take steps to tame the money-printing impulse?

    Stockman:

     “She did not. Unaccountably, the Yellen Fed marched in just the opposite direction. Upon taking office in January 2014, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $4.071 trillion, but Yellen kept the printing presses running red hot, driving the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.5 trillion by June 2015….

    “That’s right. By month #103 of the longest business expansion in American history, this Keynesian deus ex Machina had expanded the Fed’s balance sheet by another 9% from massively bloated level Bernanke had left behind.”

    Somebody once said that gold is capital on strike.  This is the moment to choose not to be victimized by the doom-loopers in charge of our economic future.  All we can say is get out of the way of their destructive policies!

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    Big, Bigger, Biggest

    Ready for the New Breed of Spenders?

    Washington has seen its share of big spenders.  Bush and Obama were among them.  Trump was an even bigger spender.  

    But now, Washington is home to the biggest spenders of them all.

    Even before Biden’s inauguration, his Treasury secretary nominee appeared before the Senate for confirmation.  Janet Yellen uttered these words:

    “Go big.”

    The people on Capitol Hill who should be keeping a brake on government spending have been missing in action for years.  So now, when the biggest spenders ever show up muttering “go big,” the brakes are off entirely.  

    Before the current fiscal year got under way, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit would total $1.8 trillion.  That was in September.  Now, just a few months later the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that it will total $2.3 trillion.  

    But the new bunch still intends to “go big.”

    Going big means that even that $2.3 trillion guesstimate is low.  We think the river of red ink will overflow the banks of last year’s $3.1 trillion deficit.  

    That means the national debt will be well over $30 trillion dollars.  And that will happen just as foreigners are backing away from funding Uncle Sam’s debt habit.

    Consider:  After seven years of negotiations, China and the European Union have just announced a new “comprehensive” agreement on investment.  The deal comes just as China has become the EU’s largest trading partner, surpassing EU trade with the US.  

    One thing is clear, with increasing EU-China trade and investment, there will be less demand for the US dollar as a middleman.  That redundancy will strike right at the heart of the dollar’s reserve currency role.  And that means a lower dollar and higher gold. 

    Still, no matter the dollar’s fate, the Biden-Harris bunch plan to be the biggest spenders ever.  How will they manage to do so?  By turning to the crackpot Modern Monetary Theory being pushed by persons of considerable influence with the Biden-Harris bunch.  (We’re looking at you Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren.) 

    We’ve written about MMT before (see MMT and Helicopter Money) and are afraid that now, as it becomes a fact of our economic life, we’ll be writing about it again soon.

    But for now, buy gold and silver to protect yourself from the madness of the biggest spenders ever.  

    And go big!

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    Mid-January Investor News Round-Up

    In times of crisis, informed people turn to gold and silver.  

    This is such a time.  It is a classic descent into chaos.   

    Today we’d like to share a few news stories.  None of them take much reading between the lines, so we will be sparse in our comments.

    The first one is from Reuters (1/15/21):

    “Policymakers worldwide should embrace more spending to help revive their stuttering economies, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Friday at Russia’s annual Gaidar economic forum.

    “Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva did not give any specific economic forecasts, but made clear her desire for governments to up their spending and that a synchronised approach internationally was best for growth.

    “In 2020, the IMF provided support to 83 countries, she said.

    “In terms of policies for right now, very unusual for the IMF, starting in March I would go out and I would say: ‘please spend’. Spend as much as you can and then spend a little bit more,” Georgieva said.”

    Okay, so the IMF should spend more.  Global government debt appears to be closing in on $300 trillion, and the multinational geniuses want more?

    Almost 25 percent of the IMF’s funding comes from the US.   When the IMF says it provided support to 83 countries, it is saying that US taxpayers are providing support to 83 countries.  There is a lot of cronyism at work in the IMF and the other so-called multinational institutions that the US supports.  Sometimes that IMF funding is awarded to countries to enable them to pay back reckless loans made to them by crony banksters.  So instead of lending money to productive people who will in-turn create more wealth (which always entails some risk) the banks make risk-free loans to foreign governments and are back-stopped by the taxpayers.

    The US has given trillions of dollar and US gold to the IMF over the years.  No wonder the US is on destitutions doorstep.  It is too bad for you, but it has been great for the Deep State’s cronies.

    Here’s the latest on the Fed from the Wall Street Journal (1/15/21):

    “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned the U.S. is still a long way from a strong job market, an indication that the central bank’s easy-money policies will remain in place for the foreseeable future. 

    “The Fed has pushed short-term interest rates to near zero and signaled it expects to keep them there for years. It also has been buying $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgages bonds, net of redemptions, every month since June and committed to continue doing that until it sees “substantial further progress” in the job market…”

    Ho-hum.  More of the same from the Fed:  money printing and bond-buying as far as the eye can see.  Never mind that 24 percent of all US dollars were created last year.  It is never, never enough!

    And finally, this one that we missed when it ran on Reuters late last year.  Let’s start with the headline:

    Vaccine rollout could cause U.S. dollar to fall 20% in 2021!

    “The widespread distribution of vaccines to combat the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing monetary easing could cause the U.S. dollar to weaken as much as 20 percent next year [2021}, Citibank said…

    “ ‘When viable, widely distributed vaccines hit the market, we believe that this will catalyze the next leg lower in the structural USD downtrend we expect,’ the U.S. bank said in a research note.

    “ ‘Given this set-up, there is the potential for the dollar’s losses to be front-loaded, with the USD potentially falling by as much as 20% in 2021….’

    “Citi’s bearish dollar view is also premised on bets that the U.S. central bank will continue to keep policy settings easy even if inflation expectations rise….”

    For more on the dollar’s fate this year see our posts HERE and HERE on Stephen Roach’s warning that the dollar is liable to fall 35 percent by the end of this year.  The American people are going to be hurt badly, says Roach.    

    Rising tensions, a divided country, widespread distrust of the government, a nation in lockdown, unpayable debt and an economy in trouble.  

    Gold… Throughout history it is the first choice for financial protection in a crisis! 

    Don’t be swept away by events.  Protect yourself.  Protect your family.

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    Inflation Raises Its Ugly Head

    Did the authorities really think they could throw $3 trillion more into the US monetary mix without causing price increases?

    No, they didn’t think that.  Mostly they didn’t think at all.  They just did it.  And because they are preparing to do even more of the same, you can expect 2021 to be the year that consumer price inflation raised its ugly head.

    Here is just some of the evidence:

    Prices are climbing fast at the level of raw commodities.  Corn, soybeans, and wheat are at the highest prices in years:

    And now prices are beginning to climb at the retail food level:

    Food prices climbed 3.9 percent in 2020.  That is twice as fast that the Fed’s nonsensical inflation target.  But take heart: higher food prices will only hurt people who eat.

    If you don’t eat, you won’t notice a thing.

    But it is not just food.  Cotton prices are at highs that have not been seen in several years.  Major appliances were up about 17 percent last year; used cars and trucks up 10 percent; the cost of elder care rose 7.5 percent.

    The Federal Reserve’s latest “Beige Book,” a regularly scheduled report on economic conditions in the Fed’s 12 regions of the country. was released Wednesday (1/13).  Upon review, economist Robert Wenzel says “there is a strong current of increasing prices” across the country.

    Sure, airfare, hotel rates, and the cost of business attire are all lower.  But only because the lockdown has decimated the customers for each.

    But be aware that more stimulus spending is coming, which will further raise prices.

    Meanwhile, Fed officials far and wide and starting to talk about raising their inflation targets.  They are bound to lose control along the way.  A number of observers are pointing out the Fed “may not be able to control how fast the dollar inflates, so we could jump from inflation to hyperinflation overnight.”   That is correct; a thin line divides the two.  The Fed is always behind the curve.  Long before the results of one round of money-printing have worked their way into consumer prices, the Fed will have already launched another round.

    We recommend you review your portfolio today with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional.  You will be glad you did.

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    Gold Bull Market Coming

    The Rush to Gold Will Be a Global Phenomenon

    So far, the gold and silver bull market that began by our reckoning in August 2018 has been fairly typical.   

    Don’t misunderstand!  We’re saying it has been typical for a powerful bull market!  The move so far has been most impressive.  Gold is up almost $700 an ounce since the bull started running.  In fact, gold appreciated almost 25 percent last year.  Silver did even better, racing up 48 percent in 2020, outperforming US stocks by three times.

    It will continue to march much higher with every turn of the Fed’s printing press and every new federal budget.

    But eventually, at some time in the not too far-off future, the price of gold (and silver) will go parabolic.  The gold chart will resemble a hockey stick.  It will hit an inflection point and turn straight up. 

    That will be the end-game for the dollar in its present incarnation.  It will be game over for unbacked paper or digital government money issued without restraint by anyone, anywhere.  What the authorities will do to attempt to prolong the game or replace it remains to be seen.  But the prices of gold and silver – and other real things – will reflect the valuelessness of the paper money.

    This calamity will be world-wide.  There has never been an event like this on a global scale.  When dollar inflation reached double-digits in the late 1970’s it was costly for other countries that held dollar reserves.  The dollar was, as Nixon’s Treasury secretary John Connelly said to foreign finance ministers back in the day, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”

    But remember, that back then China and Russia were not even in the game.  China was a closed economy, Russia was as well, although less so.  The euro did not even exist back then.  If the dollar was being debauched, there were other currencies that were not.  Although the Swiss franc had gotten into bed with the dollar with the Bretton Woods agreement in 1945, it maintained a statuary tie to gold until 1999.

    That is not the case today.  All the major currency nations are printing money, just like the Fed.  This chart from Bloomberg News illustrates how much money the US, Japan, Great Britain, and Europe are printing compared to their GDP.  Over the last year, their assets – financial instruments they purcased with money they conjured out of nothing —  have grown to more than half of their productivity.

    When the dollar breaks down, when foreigners quit funding US government debt, no one will find refuge in euros, pounds, or yen.  Or in yuan.

    The rush to gold that ensues will be reflected in the hockey stick gold chart.

    By then it will be too late for most people to do anything about it.  The window of opportunity that is open today will have closed.

    By the way, that day is approaching quickly.  Sometime in the days to come we will write about the signs that inflation has now begun rearing its ugly head.  And that the line between low and nuisance levels of inflation and crippling inflation is a very thin one indeed.

    In the meantime, let a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional advise you about steps to take to protect yourself.

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    sinking dollar

    The Diving Dollar

    Have you seen what has been going on with the US Dollar?  It looks like it is diving off a cliff. 

    Here is a one-year chart of the US Dollar Index.  You can see the appearance of the COVID-19 shutdown early in 2020 and the confusion in the currency markets.  The dollar fell, bounced back up, and headed back down for the rest of the year.

    The dollar fell almost seven percent altogether last year.  One leading economist, Stephen Roach at Yale, says it will fall 35 percent by the end of this year.  

    We’ve been calling your attention to his warnings since June.  See for example the commentary DOLLAR BREAKDOWN AHEAD! that we wrote on June 9.  

    You can see form the chart that most of the dollar’s 2020 losses took place after we published that and other warnings last summer.

    None of this is especially complicated.  The Fed has been printing a lot of US dollars.  They are not backed by anything – certainly they are not backed by gold as they once were.  Since they are not backed by anything real, since the Fed creates them out of thin air, they are worth less and less with each turn of the printing press.

    The venerable American Institute for Economic Research published the following chart last week, pointing out that “the Federal Reserve System has indirectly increased the money supply (the M1 version) by a whopping 75 percent over the past year.”

    That’s a lot of money printing.  No wonder the dollar looks like it is cliff diving!

    AIER explains:

    “The money was created for the primary purpose of buying up Treasury securities that were issued to finance the massive federal budget deficits of late (more than $3 trillion for fiscal year 2020; probably higher next year). The Fed soaked up about $2.3 trillion of the new debt, bringing its total portfolio of Treasuries to about $4.7 trillion. In addition, it added about three quarters of a trillion to its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, boosting those holdings to over $2 trillion. This was done to suppress longer-term interest rates that it does not directly control.

    “Is your head spinning yet? Who can grasp a trillion of anything? It may help if we divide these numbers by 128 million, the total number of U.S. households:

    ItemTotalPer household
    2020 Federal deficit$3 trillion$23,437
    Federal debt, net of inter-agency holdings$21 trillion$164,000
    One-year M1 money supply increase$2.8 trillion$21,875
    Fed holdings of Treasury securities,one-year increase$2.3 trillion$17,968
    Fed holdings of mortgage-backed securities, one-year increase$0.75 trillion$5,859

    According to AIER, the basic message from all this is, “We’re in trouble.”

    It concludes, “Those who understand that the piper will be paid must protect themselves and their families first, then do what they can to understand and promote sound economics.”

    We agree.  You must protect yourself and your family first.  The gold and silver professionals here at Republic Monetary Exchange can help.  Why not contact us today?

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