Warning to the Fed Raising Rates

Unless they want to blow the federal budget to smithereens!

We wish the Federal Reserve hadn’t created all this inflation in the first place.  It’s decapitalizing America and making the people poorer.  So, we wish they hadn’t done it in the first place.

As long as we’re on the subject, we wish that Washington hadn’t spent the country into this deep debt hole, and then invited the Fed to finance the deficit by printing trillions of dollars.

But we are forced to live with their malperformance and irresponsibility.  So, the best we can do to protect ourselves is to buy gold and silver.

Meanwhile the Fed now apparently wishes it hadn’t created all this inflation, too.  Now it says it isn’t going to rest until it brings it back under control.  Now Chairman Powell says, “”We understand better how little we understand about inflation.”  

But we are at pains to understand the source of their confusion.  After all, inflation has been well understood for a very long time.  With hundreds of professional economists on the Fed’s payroll, couldn’t someone have explained what Germany’s central bank did a century ago when Powell’s counterpart, Rudolf von Havenstein, decimated the economy and radicalized the entire nation with runaway inflation?  Couldn’t one academic economist at the Fed have pointed to the precedent in Zimbabwe?  There Powell’s counterpart, one Gideon Gono, impoverished the country and made Zimbabwe a laughingstock with its extraordinary money printing.

So now the Fed is trying to unwind a little of what it has done.  “There’s a clock running here. The risk is that because of the multiplicity of shocks, you start to transition into a higher-inflation regime. Our job is literally to prevent that from happening, and we will prevent that from happening,” says Powell.  Its primary tool is raising interest rates.  It has done some of that already and promises another increase in the Fed funds rate later this month.

But there is a limit on how much the Fed can raise rates.  That is because the US government is the biggest debtor in the world.  As interest rates rise, it must pay higher rates to roll over its existing $34 trillion debt, not to mention the additional debt it piles on.  

With that prelude, we turn our attention to Jeff Deist, the President of the Mises Institute:

If Treasury rates continue to rise and rise precipitously, the effects on congressional budgeting will be immediate and severe. Even if we laughably assume total federal debt remains static at around $23.8 trillion (the publicly held portion of the $30 trillion), interest rates of merely 2 or 3 percent will cause interest expense to rise considerably. Average weighted rates of only 5 percent would cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion every year. Historically, average rates of 7 percent swell that number to more than $1.5 trillion. Rates of 10 percent—hardly unthinkable, given the Paul Volcker era of the late seventies and early eighties—would cause debt service to explode to over $2.3 trillion….

Everyone knows the US will never pay its debts except nominally through inflation; everyone knows off-balance sheet entitlement promises cannot be kept in any meaningful way. Spendthrifts get cut off eventually.

Stated differently, there is no way out.  If the Fed doesn’t try to rein in inflation, it will destroy the dollar, the capital markets, and the resilience of the US economy.  It does try to rein in inflation by raising its policy rates and reducing its holding of bonds, it will drive rates to the moon and bankrupt the Treasury.

Oh, we wish they hadn’t started this fiat, unbacked money nonsense.  But people of sound mind who examined the historical precedents (We’re looking at you Zimbabwe.  And you Germany.  And France and Venezuela and hundreds of other monetary fraudsters!) knew that no good would come of it.  And they said so.  Over and over.

Have you spoken with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist?  It would be a good idea to do so right away.

Interest on debt in the hands of the public at different interest rates (billions)

Total debt in the hands of the public$23,874. 2
Interest rateInterest expense

Fed Still Concerned About Entrenched Inflation

50 or 75 basis point rate hike later this month?

Just released minutes from the Federal Reserve Board’s June meeting which saw the Fed’s key policy rate hiked by 75 basis points (3/4 of a percent) show the Fed remains concerned about entrenched inflation.

To no one’s surprise, the minutes foresee another Fed rate hike in late July: “Participants judged that an increase of 50- or 75- basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.”

The Fed does not want to appear weak or to have already lost control of its reversal on inflation.  A week ago, Chairman Powell repeatedly voiced an anti-inflation resolve: “The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worse pain would be in failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”

Even so, with the increasing likelihood that the US is already in or is entering a recession and with consumer spending slowing, the question is already being asked how long that resolve will last.  Will the Fed raise the Fed Fund’s rate an additional 50- or 75-basis points this month?  Or will it pause?

Fed watchers go carefully through the minutes of each meeting when it is released weeks after the fact, looking for clues.  Here is what they found: “Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.”

We don’t find much to go on there.  Most market participants seem to expect the larger Fed Funds rate hike.  But we are always perplexed by what the Fed does and doesn’t do and we don’t mind admitting it.  For example, during the recovery from the Great Recession, the longest expansion from a recession in history, one that lasted 128 months, the Fed kept gunning money and credit conditions along the way, even though doing so was utterly unnecessary, even by the standards of the Fed’s own Keynesian philosophy. 

As a consequence, we will let others mine the minutes and parse official comments looking for a key to future monetary developments.  We’re not much interested in the short-run trading momentum – except for our thanks that Wall Street has given us a great gold buying opportunity!  

But for us, we see what the Fed has done and what must happen as a consequence.  From 2007 as the Great Recession was getting underway, until today, Fed assets (reflecting its creation of made-up dollars, unbacked by anything) grew from $800 billion to $8.9 trillion.  That’s an increase of 1,100 percent.  

That’s a lot of made-up funny money.  It means those dollars will buy far less down the road, including far less gold.  And if the Fed raises rates much more, as it may, it will soon make the interest cost of $34 trillion in US national debt the next big crisis.

Buy gold and avoid all the hysteria.  And the sure-fire dollar crisis.

First Half of 2022 Grim for Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto

Gold Holds Its Own; Silver Demand “Insatiable”!

Between inflation in double-digit neighborhoods and a dark-robed creature named Recession knocking on the door, 2022 has been a tough year for stocks, bonds, and crypto-currencies. 

It doesn’t help that the year is only half over.

A few first-half numbers:

The S&P 500 tumbled 20.6 percent, the worst start for a year since 1970;

The DJIA fell 15.3 percent, the worst start since 1963;

The Nasdaq fell 29.5 percent, the worst start in its history;

Bitcoin fell below 20,000, quite a collapse from 67,000 just eight months ago.  The Wall Street Journal’s description was vivid: “Crypto’s rocket ship to the moon crash-landed back on Earth in the second quarter”;

Mortgage rates have risen to multi-year highs.

We don’t normally spend a lot of time on technical analysis, but we want to show you a quick series of charts.  First the Dow Industrials:

 Next the S&P 500:

The Nasdaq Composite:

Despite the carnage and bloodshed, and with Wall Street speculators and hedge funders selling “paper gold” vehicles like gold shares and ETF to meet margin calls and keep their doors open, gold itself managed to hold its own and finish in the black during some of the worst market turbulence since Richard Nixon was president.  While virtually everything else was dripping red ink, gold, which closed on the first trading day of the 2022 at $1,800, finished the first half virtually unchanged (in fact just slightly higher) at $1,807.  

No wonder people look to gold for wealth preservation!

Meanwhile we remind you the Goldman Sachs is projecting gold to finish this year six months from now at $2,500 and that the US Mint continues to point to record sales of its real gold, physical gold products like American Eagle gold coins, while leading precious metals research consultancy Metals Focus in London, calls US demand for retail silver investment products “almost insatiable.”

It looks to us like the pain on Wall Street is just getting started.  We find it easy to take Goldman Sachs’ projection for much higher gold quite seriously.  After all, we have lived through these inflation and market crises before!  So many of the same mistakes are beging made, only this time they debt and money-printing are measure not in billions, but in trillions.

Now Introducing… Skimpflation!

Everybody knows about Shrinkflation… but have you heard about Skimpflation?

By now, pretty much everybody knows about inflation.  It’s hard to miss at the gas pump or at the grocery store.  Prices are up everywhere on just about everything.

The government says the official inflation rate is 8.6 percent.  By that they mean that at the end of May, the average price on consumer goods was 8.6 percent higher that it was at the end of May 2021.

Since inflation is a monetary phenomenon, we prefer to describe it this way:  It you had $100,000 in your mattress or in the bank for the last year, today it only buys you $91,400 worth of stuff.  

The collapsing purchasing power of the dollar is easy to see in this chart from the Federal Reserve:

We, of course, think the government’s inflation number are way off.  In fact, it has devised a number of ways to soft-pedal the real inflation rate. 

We don’t feel sorry for the government taking the blame for inflation since it is the responsible agency.  But we feel a tiny – very small – bit of sympathy for the businesses that have to pass higher prices along to their customers.  Our sympathy for them is moderated by the knowledge that America’s largest businesses had the collective political clout to do something about the destruction of the dollar… if they had wanted to.  

But they didn’t want to.  Most thought inflation was either just a minor nuisance or an actual benefit to them in some way. 

In any case, businesses have resorted to the incredible shrinking candy bar tactic to avoid being the bearers of bad price news.  Today we call their practice shrinkflation.  Trying to hide rising prices, manufacturers reduce package sizes.  Cereal boxes look the same size on the shelf, but they’re narrower and hold less. Toilet paper rolls shrink.     

But have you heard of skimpflation?  It is like shrinkflation, but involves a deterioration in quality, instead of size.  If a product once came assembled, now you have to assemble it yourself.  It had a one-year warranty, now it may have only 90 days, or even no warranty at all.  Furniture that was made with durable hardwood is now mostly particle board.  Once upon a time a server brought food to your table.  Increasingly now, you have to go pick it up yourself.  Skimpflation.

A former Bank of England official describes it this way in The Guardian: “I remember it from many years ago: the price of socks remained the same and, as costs changed, the thickness of the sock changed. I don’t know how big a deal it [skimpflation] is … I’d ask a different question: to what extent does inflation measure things properly?”

Skimpflation or shrinkflation – either way, you get less for your money.  Consumers need to realize that it reflects the currency being debauched by the monetary authorities.

Don’t let skimpflation or shrinkflation erode your standard of living.  Don’t let inflation destroy your savings and your wealth.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today about a sensible plan to shift out of eroding currency and into the enduring money of the ages.

Goldman Sachs Raises Its Gold Price Target

The investment banking giant is predicting $2,500 this year!

Goldman Sachs, the multinational investment banking firm, has raised its 2022 year-end gold price forecast to $2,500.

The company explained that increasing prospects of a recession could power the move.  It noted that inflation is likely to remain an important factor in the gold price for the rest of this year.

Goldman Sachs explained, as we have repeatedly, that gold has no liabilities.  It is not dependent on someone else’s promises or performance but is a monetary asset in its own right.  This is especially important in times of economic turmoil.  Of course, that descsription only refers to physical gold in your possession.  The safety and assurances that most investors seek from gold is not part of investments in “paper” gold, such as gold shares, ETFs, commodity contracts, or promissory notes.

Gold Sachs year end target price of $2,500 represents an increase in the second half of this year of of more that 37 percent from the recent gold price.

Meanwhile, Metals Focus, the prestigious London-based independent precious metal research consultancy, reports that the US continues for second year to be the largest destination for Swiss silver bullion.  It says that shipment reflect the “almost insatiable demand” in the US for retail investment products.  

Prepare yourself for more Bidenflation and the second half or 2022.  Speak with us at Republic Monetary Exchange today about wealth preservation and profit with gold and silver.

Americans See the Light On Inflation

Ronald Reagan had a great line (actually he had a lot of good lines).  He once said, “When I feel the pain, I see the light.”

The American people have been feeling plenty of pain from Biden inflation – pain at the gas pump, pain at the grocery check-out line, pain that their pay isn’t keeping up with inflation.  

But at least many of them are at last beginning to see the light.  

Despite all of the President’s finger-pointing and blame-shifting, a new poll (I&I/TIPP) finds that 64 percent identify Biden as responsible for “causing the current inflation.”  Responses ranged from “very responsible” (38 percent) to “somewhat responsible” (26 percent).

Democrats aren’t letting Biden off the hook, either.  The Poll reveals that 53 percent of Democrats blame Biden for today’s inflation.

Drilling down a little closer provides more encouraging news.  More than two out of three surveyed say that excessive government spending “worsens inflation.”

The poll’s sponsors write that the questions asked, “came in response to recent White House claims that uncontrollable forces outside of their policies were to blame for the upsurge in inflation.”

“Biden and his spokespeople have steadfastly denied any responsibility for the surge in inflation and said a recession was ‘not inevitable.’”

The gold and silver professionals at Republic Monetary Exchange have been warning you about all of this loud and clear… about Washington spending, money printing, and Bidenomics!

And now it’s front and center in your life, impossible to miss at the grocery store and at the gas pump.

Don’t wait for Biden to protect your hard-earned money.  Talk to a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today about a sensible precious metals portfolio.  Because in troubled times and in a currency crisis, nothing outperforms gold and silver.  

Seeing is Believing

You know inflation is higher now than it has been in the lifetimes of most Americans.  Gas prices have gone stratospheric, food prices are soaring, consumer confidence is in the tank, interest rates have home buyers and sellers angry, and a recession is knocking on the door.  

But there is nothing like seeing it in living color and in motion graphics!  See for yourself!

President Biden seems to believe that his popularity has less to do with objective real-world conditions than with his staff’s ability to communicate all the wonderful things happening under his leadership.  We know POTUS doesn’t pump his own gas or do his own grocery shopping.  So maybe someone ought to help him get the picture and show him this graphic!

As for the rest of us, those of us who do pump our own gas and do our own shopping, we’ve gotten the message:  inflation is not a matter of perception.  Pardon us if we protect our wealth and profit with gold and silver!

Ron Paul Says…

Fed too late, too little!

It was just weeks ago that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said that raising interest rates 75 basis points at its June meeting was something that wasn’t under consideration.

BANG!  The Fed raised interest rates 75 basis points at its June meeting after all.  And it will likely do so again at its July meeting. 

But after 14 years of pumping money into the economy by the trillions, are a couple of interest rate hikes that still leave the Fed funds policy rate (now 1.50 to 1.75 percent) about seven percentage points below the inflation rate (now 8.6 percent), enough to do what Paul Volcker did 40 years ago when he drove interest rates to double-digits?  Is it enough to wring inflation out of the economy?

Can the Fed stop inflation with baby steps and halfway measures and thereby avoid crushing employment and throwing the economy into a recession?

Are we headed for a soft landing?  Or a crash landing?

Monetary authority Dr. Ron Paul says a soft landing is highly unlikely:

This latest rate increase will only raise rates to where they were before the lockdowns led the Fed to embark on a historic money-creating spree. The Federal Reserve cannot increase rates to anywhere near the level they would be in a free market because doing so would increase interest payments to unsustainable levels for debt-ridden consumers, businesses, and the federal government.

Increases of a couple percent or less in interest rates can cause big increases in federal debt payments. The resulting new spending puts pressure on the supposedly “independent” Fed to maintain low rates, making it more likely the Fed will fail to tame inflation but succeed in resurrecting stagflation, combining price inflation with a recession. This new stagflation will make the 1970s look like a golden era.

A lack of serious intent and pussy-footing approaches to today’s destructive inflation rates can only mean that inflation will persist.  And, as the stagflation experience of the 1970s showed, a persistent inflation is enough to power to unforeseeable new heights.

Dr. Paul points to another consequence of a coming bout of stagflation, one that we have called one of the most important monetary megatrends of the day: the ending of the dollar’s post-war reserve currency status.

Says Dr. Paul, “The return of stagflation will increase the growing movement to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. This will be the final nail in the welfare-warfare-fiat money regime’s coffin.”

The preceding commentary is provided to encourage readers to assure that their gold and silver holdings are sufficient for the monetary turmoil ahead!

One Chart to Explain it All

(With apologies to J.R.R. Tolkien and his famous line from The Lord of the Rings, “One ring to rule them all.”)

We have published this chart before, but it tells the story of gold’s rise overlaid against the dollar’s loss of purchasing power so completely that we present it again with no commentary.

 Okay, one little bit of commentary.  We just saw this talk, apparently to a Rotary Club, by the chairman of the House Budget Committee, Kentucky Congressman John Yarmuth.  

While the above chart displays the result of US monetary policy, in this you will see how the US ended up with $30 trillion in unpayable debt.  Here is a link to the 2021 video in which Yarmuth says that “We don’t really need to pay for Federal spending or debt. We are like the banker in monopoly,” he explains.  “We create the money.” 

And he’s the Budget Chairman.  

That explains a lot.     

We will leave matters there without any additional commentary.

Bidenomics Up Close

No Wonder People Are Buying Gold and Silver!

“Their need for mental health in America has skyrocketed,” says President Biden.

The people should always have mental health.  Of course, what Biden actually means is that the need for mental health care in America has skyrocketed.  

Actually, what the people need most is a break from the confusion and chaos coming at them from the top.  People always need clarity.  They can’t be expected to function optimally in an environment of deceit.  But deceit and confusion are coming at them at breakneck speed from Washington.

When you gas up this weekend, do the grocery shopping, or check your 401k, you might want to consider the words of Karine Jean-Pierre, the president’s spokesperson:

 The US economy “is in a better place than it has been historically.”

 She actually said that but she’s new and she’s like the old RCA Victor ad called “His Master’s Voice.”  She’s only expected to repeat what her masters say, so we won’t dwell on her.  

But the president is another story.  So today we turn to what Biden says about economic matters with the help of the great reporter James Bovard and a recent piece in the New York Post called “Debunking 10 of Joe Biden’s lies about the state of the US economy.”

You can read the entire list HERE, but we’ve selected a few snippets:

CLAIM: Biden boasted that he “put America in a position to tackle the worldwide problem that’s worse everywhere but here: inflation.”

REALITY: Were Biden’s speechwriters using “Common Core” math that makes all bad numbers vanish? Inflation is 8.6% in America and 5.4% in South Korea, 5.1% in Australia, 6.8% in Canada.

CLAIM: Biden continued blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for price hikes here in America.

REALITY: National Public Radio reported earlier this year that “between 2019 and 2021, the US saw one of the biggest inflation-rate increases in the world, behind only Brazil and Turkey.” Inflation had increased fourfold under Biden — reaching 7% — before Russia invaded Ukraine. Wholesale price inflation last month was almost 11% — signaling worse times ahead for US consumers.

CLAIM: Biden apparently thinks that public raving can restore confidence in his leadership. He literally screamed at the AFL-CIO audience: “I don’t want to hear any more of these lies about reckless spending. We’re changing people’s lives!”

REALITY: Federal Reserve analysts estimated that Biden’s deluge of handouts added 3% to the inflation rate by late last year. The Federal Reserve has boosted the money supply by 40% since the start of the pandemic, helping fuel price surges across the board.

CLAIM: Biden claimed that he had “created the greatest job recovery in American history. … Since I’ve become president, we’ve created 8.7 million new jobs in 16 months.”

REALITY: Does it count as a “new job” if it was “created” solely because politicians ceased prohibiting people from going to work? Almost all of the Biden “success story” is simply jobs returning from the pandemic shutdowns and disruptions. According to, nationwide employment this year will be roughly the same level as 2019.

There is much more, but we think this makes the point.  If you had such confusion issuing from the top levels of your government, wouldn’t you be buying gold and silver for protection from the chaos?

We would too.

The Federal Reserve Clown Show

The dollar, like all unbacked paper and digital money, is a confidence game.  That’s why we are watching the Federal Reserve with horror.  Behind the curve doesn’t begin to describe it.

It’s a clown show!

It’s almost as if they are trying to destroy confidence in the dollar.  But whether they are doing it on purpose or just lurching about in their confusion doesn’t matter right now.

Consumer confidence is in the tank.  The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index for June is at an all-time low, mostly due to inflation.

We don’t think anyone should be surprised.  Just weeks ago, chairman Jerome Powell scoffed at the idea of the Fed needing to raise interest rates 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent).

Yet this week the Fed did just that.

That comes hard on the heels of former Fed head Janet Yellen explaining that she just didn’t really understand inflation.  But none of them do.  It’s as though Fed officials have never heard of the quantity theory of money – the more dollars they print, the less each is worth.  It’s as though they’ve never really mastered supply and demand.

So now while the American people are suffering pain at the pump and America itself is being decapitalized, the Fed keeps stalling for time.  Instead of taking serious measures, it hopes that inflation will disappear on its own.  For example, the Fed has said it needed to unwind its balance sheet, to undo some of the $8 trillion it has printed in the last 14 years.  But if it is important to do that, why are they stalling?  If it will help, why didn’t they start right away?  They have no sense of urgency.  They don’t pump their own gas.  They dine for free in the Marriner Eccles building dining room.  So now they are finally dipping their toe into the unwinding process but won’t really ramp up until this fall.  Mañana, mañana, mañana.  

While the Fed dilly-dallies, blood is running on both Main Street and Wall Street.  Inflation keeps ratcheting up, up, up.  Producer prices are rising at double-digit rates.  Mortgages rates have doubled, leaving both home buyers and sellers in a lurch.  And the stock market has lost $11 trillion already this year.  

It’s a clown show, that’s for sure.  Don’t be victimized.  If you haven’t moved a substantial share of your assets into gold and silver, it’s certain you will continue to be victimized by fiat, made-up, unbacked paper or digital money.  

The clown show will make you poorer.

Political Policy Confusion

The US economy “is in a better place than it has been historically.”

So says President Biden’s press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre from the White House briefing room.  And we thought Powell and Yellen were confused.

It is said that a diplomat is a person paid to lie for their country.  But they can’t hold a candle to presidential flacks. 

Only a flack or a sociopath could look you straight in the eye at telling you that we’re in a better economic position than ever before.  Obviously, Karine Jean-Pierre doesn’t pump her own gas.  

 “We are in a good position to take on inflation,” she announced.  “We are in a good position to really start working on lowering prices.”

Right.  One of the reasons White House aides are so shameless in defending their boss is that he has switched gears.  He was blaming corporations and Russia for inflation.  Now he has switched to blaming his PR people for not doing an adequate job defending him.

But in any case, we don’t need to “take on” inflation.  We need the monetary authorities to refrain from inflating.  But it’s a little late for that.  The $8 trillion in funny money they conjured up out of thin air in the last 14 years is going to exert its cost.  

But if they truly believe the economy is in a better place than ever in history, why don’t they leave things alone and they can bask in their success?

Because, as we all know, the economy is on the verge of something very unpleasant.  You don’t have to be skilled at reading between the lines to know that they are ready to make everything worse.

Would you like an example?  Here’s one from the popular financial blogger Michael Shedlock:

Last September, 20 House Democrats introduced the Fossil Free Finance Act, which would require the Federal Reserve Bank to take steps to stop banks from investing in fossil-fuel production. The bill’s goal was “no financing of new or expanded fossil fuel projects after 2022,” the Naderite group Public Citizen noted approvingly.

Sticking with $5.00 plus gasoline, someone wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal called “Why Energy Companies Won’t Produce.”   Simple.  It’s because they expect the war on fossil fuels to resume when the current crisis ends.  Here’s a snippet:

President Biden has urged oil and natural-gas companies to ramp up production, and you’d think, given the current high prices, that it would be in their interest to do so. But the industry has been slow to respond, with some justification. Companies expect that as soon as the current turmoil subsides, the Biden administration will shift back to hostile rhetoric, anti-energy legislative proposals, and oppositional regulatory policies.

Just remember that the same confused philosophies, policymakers, and presidential appointees who have made a trip to the gas station a heart-stopping experience have been subverting the value of our money for a very long time.  

We say get out of their way.  Preserve your wealth with gold and silver and do it now.  Because the proverbial chickens are coming home to roost.

You need to own gold and silver because Washington remains as confused as ever!

How is Janet Yellen Getting Away With It?

Why is Janet Yellen Treasury Secretary?

They get away with it for a while.  Then when the consequences hit, they duck, bob, and weave desperately to try to avoid blame for their policies.

“Deficits don’t matter,” said Vice President Dick Cheney.  

That was in November 2002.  The national debt was $6.325 trillion.

Today the national debt is $30.420, almost five times the size.  How did it get so large?  Because of the accumulation of Cheney’s “don’t matter” deficits year after year.  

So, deficits decidedly do matter. 

Janet Yellen, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve insisted that rapid growth of the money supply would not lead to inflation.  The old verities about debt and money printing were outdated, she said.  So, inflation was “manageable,” “small risk,” and “not a problem,” she said.

No wonder the Fed created $8 trillion since 2008.  The old verities had been overruled by geniuses named Yellen, Powell, and Biden.

Except that now we have the highest inflation in most people’s lifetimes.  And record-high gas prices.  And sharply higher mortgage rates slamming both buyers and sellers.

So now that the inflationary cow is out of the barn, Treasury secretary Yellen is on an apology tour confessing that she did not “fully understand” inflation.

Then why should she be the Treasury secretary?

Yellen’s tune has changed.  “I do expect inflation to remain high, although I very much hope it will be coming down now.”

She hopes?  Do we get the foolish drug of “hopium” in the place of badly needed insight?  That’s Yellen for you.  Five years ago, she shared her hope for the rest of our lifetimes and her doubt that there would ever be another financial crisis:  

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said.  “You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.”

More hopium.  More ungrounded beliefs.

The truth is that inflation has been understood for centuries.  It is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency.  

We warned you about it while the money printing splurge was going on.

Now there’s a hurricane headed your way.  Preserve your wealth from the mismanagement of our money by Yellen and Powell.  Protect yourself from Biden inflation with gold and silver.

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today.   Before the next shoe drops!

Biden Respects the Fed

We respect gold and silver!

We have the worst inflation in decades.  It is pounding the stock market.  It is whipping the bond market.  Mortgage rates are climbing fast to the dismay of both home buyers and sellers.  It is draining household budgets with every stop at the gas station.

And President Biden says the answer is to respect the Fed?  Who, pray tell, is responsible for the appalling state of our money, the US dollar?  Perhaps the monetary authorities, the Fed, might have something to do with it?  

And if not they, who?

Biden says that part of his job is to nominate people for the Fed and to “give them the space they need to do their job, not interfere with their critically important work.”  Indeed, it is Biden who reappointed Fed chairman Powell to a second four-year term.  

A bi-partisan Senate vote just last month confirmed Powell’s new term.  

That’s funny.  Despite his cluelessness about the advent of trouble — the US inflation rate was over 8 percent – Senators by a vote of 80 to 19 thought it best to continue entrusting our monetary affairs to Powell.  It reminds us Janet Yellen.  She admits she didn’t get it about inflation either – as she didn’t get it about most things while she was with the Fed – but that’s good enough for her to be US Treasury secretary.

Biden went out of the way to mention that his respect for the Fed is unlike that of his predecessor Donald Trump.  What did Trump do?   He sent some mean Tweets about the Fed.

Mean tweets?  Oh, my!

Congressman Ron Paul writes that presidents have tried to have a hand in monetary policy for a very long time:

It is hard to believe that someone who has been in DC as long as Joe Biden really thinks Donald Trump was the first President to try to influence the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. Since the Fed’s creation, Presidents have used public and private pressure to “convince” the Fed to tailor monetary policy to advance their policy and political goals. When it comes to “demeaning” the Fed, Trump has nothing on Lyndon Johnson, who, frustrated over the Fed’s refusal to tailor monetary policy to finance the Great Society and Vietnam war, threw the Fed chairman against a wall.

By “passing the buck” on inflation, Biden no doubt hopes to deflect blame from himself and his party before the midterm elections. Unlike Biden’s previous inflation scapegoats — greedy corporations and Vladimir Putin — the Fed actually is responsible for creating and controlling inflation….

Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Chairman Powell have both admitted they were wrong to publicly dismiss inflation as “transitory.” The fact that the two most recent Fed chairs made such a huge blunder (or purposely refused to admit what was clear to many people for over a year), shows the folly of relying on a secretive central bank to manage monetary policy. Instead of “respecting the Fed’s independence,” President Biden should work with Congress to audit, then end the Fed.

The continuation of Powell and Yellen in positions of authority reminds us of the old expression that if you keep on doing what you’ve been doing, you’re going to keep on getting what you’ve been getting.

President Biden can respect the Fed if he wishes.  As for us, when it comes to money, we respect gold and silver.

American Gold Coin Sales Through the Roof

Investors are turning to Gold Eagles in the Bidenflation era!

Thanks to sky-high inflation, the US getting deeper into a European war, gas prices at all-time highs, and possible food shortages in development, Americans in big numbers turned to US American Eagle gold coins for safety.

In May, the US mint sold 147,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins of various denominations, but mostly the popular one-ounce denomination.  That represents a 67 percent increase from April sales, and an impressive 617 percent increase from May 2021 sales totals.

So far in 2022, US Mint Gold Eagle sales have totaled 661,500.  That’s an increase of 40.5 percent for the same period in 2021.

American Gold Eagle coins are the world’s foremost bullion coins with more than 22 million ounces sold since 1986.  The US Mint describes bullion coins this way:

A bullion coin is an investment-grade coin that is valued by the weight and fineness of a specific precious metal. Unlike commemorative or numismatic coins valued by limited mintage, rarity, condition, and age, bullion coins are purchased by investors seeking a simple and tangible means to own and invest in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets.

American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins are available in four sizes: one ounce, one-half ounce, one-quarter ounce, and one-tenth ounce. American Eagle Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and American Buffalo Gold Bullion Coins are available in one-ounce sizes.

To invest in American Gold Eagle coins and other popular gold and silver wealth preservation products, speak with a knowledgeable Republic Monetary Exchange advisor today.

How to Brace for a (Financial) Hurricane

“It’s a hurricane. That hurricane is right there, down the road, and coming our way.”

So says Jamie Dimon.  He’s the head of JP Morgan Chase, banking’s most influential figure.

“You better brace yourself,” warns Dimon.  

Now that you’ve heard from the C-suites, let’s go down to the field to see what they are saying.

“People don’t realize what’s fixing to hit them,” said Texas farmer Lynn “Bugsy” Allen.  “They think it’s tough right now, you give it until October. Food prices are going to double.”

From the high rises of Manhattan to rural Texas, the stagflation threat grows clearer every day.  Manufacturing employment looks to have already begun sliding.  Price inflation remains high.  

Food prices are taking even more of the household budget.

And the war in Ukraine, responsible for today’s higher energy prices, could send prices even higher.  Dimon says we could see oil soar to $150 or $175 a barrel.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that higher gas prices are already costing the American people an extra $2000 a year.  

Higher oil prices mean even higher food prices, too.  “They have no electric trucks delivering that food and there are no electric tractors,” Allen said.  “It takes diesel to run all this.”

So how do you brace for a hurricane?  You’re not a multi-national financial institution.  You can’t call loans to troubled borrowers.  You can’t just raise rates on hopelessly indebted credit card customers.  And you sure as heck can’t borrow money from the Fed at crony below market rates.  You’re probably not on the special list of those who get bailed out by congress, either.

So how do you brace for a hurricane?  Get out of the Fed’s failing money.  Just the other day former Fed chairman and current Treasury secretary Janet Yellen confessed that she had been wrong about the whole inflation thing.  “I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take,” she said. “As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy…that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand.”

Right.  There are only thousands of years of history regarding inflation.  People who knew that history knew we had an inflation thunderstorm headed right at us.  But Janet Yellen didn’t know.  Nor did Jerome Powell.

Now we have to brace for a hurricane.  

The best way to do that is to get out of the Yellen-Powell-Biden dollar.  Thousands of years of history teach that gold and silver are the best way to brace yourself for a currency crisis.

Want to know more?  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist.  Just don’t wait for the hurricane to make landfall!

Economic Pessimism Growing

Remember, the authorities can’t print more gold!

Gallup, the polling organization, tells us that consumer confidence has fallen off a cliff.  It lower today than during the worst of the pandemic shutdown.

In fact, consumer confidence has not been this low since the Great Recession with the mortgage meltdown and the housing bubble bust.  

Collapsing consumer confidence is a leading indicator of recessions.  

The problem today according to Gallup’s survey: High inflation and rising interest rates.  

Meanwhile, President Biden had a photo op with Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday (5/31).   It was a chance for Biden to make sure Powell and the Fed take as much of the blame as possible for our inflation crisis.  “I’m not going to interfere with their critically important work,” said Biden at the start of the meeting. “They have a laser focus on addressing inflation, just like I am [sic].”

Officials can pose and blame shift all they want, but Texas hedge funder Kyle Bass says there are two things that they can’t change.  “They can’t change the global supply problem for hydrocarbons, which has been based upon a decade of bad policy, and they can’t change the price of food.”

“We’re in a scenario where we have a stagflationary environment,” Bass said. “I think the economy’s going to cool off, I think we’ll have a recession by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.”

We take his opinion seriously.  Bass is the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management.  He made half a billion dollars disregarding government economists like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.

We wrote about Bass a year ago when he was challenging the Fed to talk about transitory inflation.  The massive increase in broad money measures since Covid started, said Bass, rules out transitory.  “So, we’re going to see prices stay high, and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet,” he said.  

The answer for investors is hard assets, according to Bass.  He is a member of the University of Texas endowment board and was instrumental in having the endowment invest in a billion dollars’ worth of gold.  Why?  Because, said Bass, the Fed cannot print more gold!

That sounds like something we’d say!  And in fact, we have said it over and over.

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today, for wealth preservation and profit.

A Simple Story: Gold and the Money Supply

Gold’s price trajectory is more reflective of the growing money supply than it is of the Consumer Price Index.

Although the CPI is widely reported by the popular news media, it is a lagging indicator.  It purports to reflect price increases after they have occurred.

The money supply is generally considered a leading indicator.  

The World Gold Council recently provided the following chart to illustrate the relationship between money supply and gold.

The chart reaches back to 1971 when the US severed the last remaining link of the dollar to gold.  Over that 50-plus year span, the CPI shows a compound annual growth rate of 3.9 percent.  The money supply’s compound annual growth rate for the period (M2) is 7 percent.

Gold shows a compound annual growth rate over the half-century of 8.1 percent.

Accordingly, we present a five-year chart of the growth of the M2 money supply, a broad measure of liquidity consisting of currency and coins, checkable deposits, travelers’ checks, and savings and money market deposits.  

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation index the Fed prefers to follow, dipped in April, rising 6.3 percent, off slightly from its 6.6 pace from the annual rate ending in March.  

As you would expect, the PCE and the CPI track one another fairly closely as this chart illustrates.

The Fed prefers to use the PCE barometer of prices, in part because it allows for consumers to switch spending patterns to buy lower price alternatives to those food items that have risen the most.  As a consequence, it is accused of soft-pedaling the real impact of price hikes.

By any measure, government price statistics can ebb and flow from month to month.  It is more important to be aware that the dollar’s purchasing power is continually eroding over time than it is to assume that a monetary crisis means that each month’s inflation figure needs to be higher than the month before.

wall street

More Losses Are Heading Wall Street’s Way

Grantham likes gold!  Superbubble expert sees more stock trouble ahead! 

If you think you’ve seen some blood spilled on Wall Street so far, wait until those losses double.  

That’s the warning from legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.

Grantham is co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. Wikipedia says that “Grantham has built much of his investing reputation over his long career by claiming to identify speculative market ‘bubbles’ as they were unfolding.”

We last cited Grantham in January when he wrote an important piece called, “LET THE WILD RUMPUS BEGIN!Approaching the End of) The First U.S. Bubble Extravaganza: Housing, Equities, Bonds, and Commodities.”

As Grantham wrote then, “Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years.”  Investors may have months – but not years – to take their profits and head for safety, he added.

It looks like Grantham was right again, with bubbles starting to pop everywhere.  

Now Grantham expects the losses we’ve already seen in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes to double: “I would say that at minimum we are likely to do twice that and if we are unlucky, which is quite possible, we will do three legs like that and it may take a couple of years, as it did 2000.”

Whether it turns out to be mild or severe, Grantham said on CNBC last week, “we should be in some sort of recession fairly quickly and profit margins, from a real peak, have a long way that they can decline.”

“I think this kind of 2000 bubble that we had is dangerously likely to morph into the 1970s, where inflation is always a part of the background discussion and where growth rate starts to dwindle away.”

As you might already have concluded, Grantham advises that gold and silver are good safe harbors to counter inflation.

Learn more by speaking with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional.

From Gas to Hamburgers

Let’s take a look at the real-world experience people are having with inflation.

CBS News has found a handful of California gas stations charging $7.25 a gallon, more that the federal minimum hourly wage.  

The Wall Street Journal reports that US households are now paying an annual rate of $4,800 for gasoline compared to $2,800 a year ago. 

Something in the budget of an American household must give to accommodate $2,000 more a year for gas.  A survey by OnePoll finds that skyrocketing gas prices and inflation have more than half of the people, 56 percent, “extremely” or “noticeably” more stressed.

Never mind that.  The President says that high gas prices are part of our “incredible transition” away from fossil fuels:

  “[When] it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger, and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”

Now does that sound like an everyday American who pumps his own gas and is left stunned at the sticker shock? 

It was only a couple of months ago that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that government spending was not contributing to inflation and was “reducing the national debt.”   It was apparently from that peculiar economic vantage point that this week she offered up that, “In terms of inflation, so much is being done by this president, we have to make sure that public sentiment understands that.”

Speaking of the everyday American, what has inflation done to the price of a hamburger?  Take a look!

Along the same line, we caught a Yahoo Finance story that reports for the first time in decades the frozen food category is outgrowing the fresh food category.  It says that so far this year, frozen food outgrew fresh by 230 percent.  And so, the American standard of living continues to deteriorate at the hands of central bank inflationists.

Changing consumer spending patterns can also be seen in huge excess inventories that caught major retailers by surprise, and by the subsequent sharp sell-off of retailer shares including Amazon, Wal-Mart, Costco, and Target.

By the way, the OnePoll survey referred to earlier reports that on average those polled believe it will take them 38 years to pay off their credit card debt.  

We can’t do anything about the price of gas and hamburgers, but we can help you preserve your wealth and even profit in this age of inflation.  Contact us at Republic Monetary Exchange.  We have knowledgeable gold and silver professionals standing by to help you.

How Are They Going to Fix it All?

Here is a short list of some of the things going wrong.  It is not exhaustive.  It is just some of the things no one can miss:

  • Gas prices through the roof
  • Double-digit inflation
  • Mortgage rates running up and housing ready to topple
  • Consumer confidence in the tank, an important recession indicator
  • Americans losing trillions in the stock market
  • Unexpectedly rising unemployment claims
  • The US economy shrank in the last quarter
  • And then there is the little old matter of what The Economist calls “The coming food catastrophe.”

We know it sounds troublesome, but not to worry.  Washington knows how to fix it all.  It’ll just send $40 billion to Ukraine!  That should do the trick.

Where will it get the money to do that?  Don’t be a worrier!  It can just borrow the money from China.  China has already loaned Uncle Sam over a trillion dollars.  What’s another $40 billion?  Between friends?

And if China won’t loan it to us, Washington will just have the Federal Reserve print it up.  After all, the Fed has printed up $8 trillion unbacked dollars over the last 14 years.  Today it owns almost 20 percent of US debt.  Purchased with money created out of thin air.  What’s another $40 billion?  

Okay.   Enough of being facetious about all this.  We think a financial calamity is brewing.  And we do not believe the authorities know what to do. 

In our recent memory, the Fed said we needed more inflation.  Then it said inflation was transitory.  Now it says it will stop inflation.  Not only will it stop inflation, but it will also do so deftly, so smoothly that it will be called “a soft landing.”  Although they aren’t too sure about that last part.

We advise getting out of the way of this brewing monetary and financial disaster.  Protect your wealth with gold and silver before the authorities do any more harm.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today.

Gas Price Déjà vu!

Another real-life indicator of our inflation calamity!

Gasoline prices are now over $4 everywhere in the country.  But California gets the award for being the first state to cross over $6 a gallon. 

Why are gas prices so high?  In a nutshell, it is because your US dollars don’t buy as much as they did.   

When people say this is the highest inflation in forty years, they are really saying that the dollar is losing purchasing power at the fastest rate in forty years.

There are other reasons, of course, for today’s sky-high oil prices, including a growth-killing Washington, DC war on oil. 

We have been through energy crises like this before.  In the early 1970s, when Nixon suddenly cut the last ties of the dollar to gold, foreign oil producers wondered why they should keep selling us their oil at the old prices.  After all, the oil they sold was produced at the cost of real capital.  It demanded costly exploration, expensive drilling and pumping operations, refining, and transportation. But the dollars they sold it for could be created in any denomination – just add a zero – at the cost of nothing more than paper and ink.  Indeed, these days it is all created digitally without even the expense of paper and the messy trouble of big printing operations.  

So, the OPEC producing nations warned repeatedly in the Stagflation Decade that if the dollar kept losing value, the oil price would have to move sharply higher.  And it did. The oil price shocks of the 1970s had a repressive effect on the US economy.

Today energy costs are just another burden on the slowing US economy, depleting the wealth and lowering the savings and discretionary spending of the American people.

Of course, the government could do something about that. It could get out of our own way in energy production.   It would quit trying to prolong the needless war in Ukraine and let Russia sell its oil to the people of the world at lower costs.   

Here is a chart of oil prices (West Texas Intermediate Crude) since Biden’s election on November 3, 2020.  Perhaps you will remember that on Inauguration Day, in January 2021, President Biden canceled the federal permit for the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.  Keystone was expected to deliver 800,000 barrels per day from Canada to the US.  

Returning the US to a stable and honest monetary system would help tremendously, too.  That would require a return to honest money that cannot simply be rolled off a printing press somewhere.

In the meantime, for real wealth protection in an age of monetary, financial, and resource confusion, speak with the gold and silver professionals at Republic Monetary Exchange.

Wall Street, Bloody Wall Street!

How bad has it been? Pretty bad!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says that restoring price stability is “nonnegotiable.”

If price stability is so important, why did the Fed blow up the stock and bond markets in the first place?  Did they really not realize that the creation of $8 trillion dollars over the last 14 years (shown below) would lead to price instability?

If the Fed has been willing to negotiate away price stability with banana republic-style money printing in the past, why are we being asked to believe that the future of price stability is now nonnegotiable?

We predict that “nonnegotiable” will come back to haunt the Fed the same way “transitory,” its prognosis for inflation has haunted it for over a year.

Can Mr. Powell envision no event, crisis, political uproar, or market calamity that would induce him or his successors at the Fed to once again eagerly sacrifice price stability with printing press money?  

We can imagine many such developments.  Here’s a shortlist based on the Fed’s history: War, recession, a political or electoral outcome Fed officials desire, stagflation, a pandemic, or a depression.  And blood flowing on Wall Street.  After all, it was Wall Street money power that created the Fed in the first place to serve their interests.

Already with the blood flowing on Wall Street over the last couple of weeks, we trust the phone lines and text messages from the influential are flying to Washington and to Fed officials screaming the outrage of the Fed’s cronies.

And that’s before this sell-off has even gotten serious.

We’ll just share some news snippets we have collected recently about how bloody it has been:

Yahoo Finance:  The S&P 500 slid by 4% on its worst day since June 2020, closing at 3,923.68. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.7% to settle at 11,418.15, while the Dow fell by more than 1,100 points or 3.6%….

Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday… that the S&P 500 has fallen for six consecutive weeks heading into this week. “It hasn’t been down seven weeks in a row for 20 years…

Wall Street Journal:  Dow Drops More Than 1,100 Points on Recession Fears.  Blue chips have the worst day since 2020 as S&P, and Nasdaq loses over 4%.

Wolf Street:  Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications Plunge amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates, Croaking Stocks…

And then there is this list of percentage market losses of well-known stocks from their highs provided by David Stockman.  Please note that this list is from May 13 when there was still much more bloodletting ahead:

  • Carvana: -90%
  • Vroom: -98%
  • Rivian: -85%
  • Snap: -70%
  • Pinterest: -76%
  • Netflix: -73%
  • Wayfair: -84%
  • Chewy: -78%
  • Shopify: -77%
  • Teladoc: -89%
  • Lyft: -77%
  • Zoom: -79%
  • Palantir: -81%
  • GameStop: -80%
  • AMC: -84%
  • Coinbase: -83%
  • Zillow: -81%
  • Redfin: -88%
  • Compass: -75%
  • Opendoor: -82%
  • MicroStrategy: -85%
  • Robinhood: -87%
  • Moderna: -72%
  • Beyond Meat: -87%
  • Peloton: -90%
  • DoorDash: -72%

We recommend you avoid any further risk on Wall Street and move to the safe haven of gold before it gets any worse.

Speak to a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today!

The Economics Credibility Gap

How They Made a Mess of the American Economy, the Dollar, and Your Prosperity – and Gave You a Buying Opportunity at the Same Time!

The Federal Reserve has made a mess of everything.

The American economic establishment has made a mess of everything, too.

But I repeat myself.  The American economic establishment is the Fed’s puppet.  The Fed calls the tune and the establishment dances.

This has been going on for a long time. 

The Fed is awash in high-priced economists and expensive consultants who carry its water and defend the Fed’s decisions and protect its prerogative to create money out of thin air. 

G. Edward Griffin, author of an excellent history of the Fed called The Creature from Jekyll Island, describes how the Fed mobilizes public opinion:

The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession….

This dominance helps explain how, even after the Fed failed to foresee the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression, the central bank has largely escaped criticism from academic economists. In the Fed’s thrall, the economists missed it, too.

Today the Fed has hundreds of economists on staff, while hundreds more receive lucrative contracts to do studies for the Fed.  The Fed’s influence extends over the academic economics departments and the professional economic journals.

So the Washington monetary establishment has a very effective chokehold on the philosophy and opinions people hear about monetary policy.  Dissenters are choked off.  This goes a long way to explain why there were not more warning voices about today’s raging inflation.  

The following chart illustrates the consensus expectations from economists for inflation to have subsided by now, all wildly incorrect.  

The monetary authorities clearly have no idea what they are doing.   So they will try a 50 basis point interest rate increase this month, and then may try another and another after that, as see how things work out.  It’s all hit and miss.

But they have done us a favor.  The Fed’s interest rate increase has spooked Wall Street.  The stock and bond markets have been clobbered, and – at least for now – gold has moved down below its long-term (200-day) moving average, the red line on the following chart.  This gives us an opportunity to buy gold at prices that prevailed early this year.

Silver has corrected as well.  But bear in mind that these charts reflect the prices of “paper” gold and silver.  Real physical silver remains in high demand and in short supply and is only available at significant premiums above the paper or “spot” prices.

Your Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional can provide you with more information and steer your investments in ways that take advantage of this break in prices and meet your individual needs.

More Bad Consumer Price News!

Things are Even Worse in the Phoenix Area!

Two headlines on the same financial news site at the same time:  

  1. … inflation decelerates slightly.
  2. … Inflation comes in hotter than expected.

Maybe that’s why President Biden is so confused.  He doesn’t know how to sort things out.

As it happened the latest Consumer Price Index came in slightly lower than last month but higher than the consensus forecast.  For the 12 months through April, the CPI rose 8.3 percent.

Food prices climbed 9.4 percent.

Once again, prices are rising faster in the Phoenix metro area than the national average.  For the 12 months through April, the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottdale consumer price index is up 11 percent.

That the fastest in the nation.

It’s Not His Fault

Bidenflation that is…

With the news that consumer prices were up 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending in April (and food prices up 9.4 percent), President Biden issued a statement claiming that bringing inflation down is his “top economic priority.

But he certainly did not claim any ownership of the inflation calamity.  Nor did he take any responsibility for Producer Prices (wholesale prices) rising at an 11 percent yearly rate.

But as evidenced by his comments on the recent report that the US economy is shrinking, it is not clear that Biden really knows what is going on.

It can be hard enough for most people to sort these things out.  

We have heard more than one president wail that “it’s not his fault.”  Gerald Ford bumped his head on the helicopter door on the White House lawn a time or two.  “It’s not my fault,” he complained.  As we recall, the White House staff put the scene of the incidents off-limits to photographers.

That is how Washington works.  Don’t fix the problem.  Hide it.

Bush the Elder offered up “It’s not my fault” about sub-par US economic growth.  And now its President Biden’s turn. 

“Make no mistake.  Inflation is largely the fault of Putin,” says the president.  Oh, and it’s the fault of big oil companies, too.    

Inflation “is a real tough problem to solve,” says Biden, who is now warning that it could get worse before it gets better.                                                                                                                                                                                                          

And even though the federal debt just keeps on growing, Biden has started cross-dressing as a fiscal conservative.  But the charts paint a different picture.

Here’s the New York Post’s take on Biden’s most recent attempt to duck any responsibility for US inflation:

Inflation, he insisted, is being driven by the pandemic (which largely ended over a year ago) and “Putin’s price hike.” For the record, it was April 14 last year that the White House insisted the already-developing inflation would be “transitory”; Biden & Co. kept that up through November, before switching to blaming it on corporate greed and now Putin.

The prez still refuses to take any responsibility for it himself. Never mind the $1.9 trillion he and his fellow Democrats pumped into an already hot recovery last spring, which is when US inflation took off (and Europe’s didn’t).

It can’t have anything to do with Dems’ spending, he actually argued, because “we brought the deficit down.” Lying liar: It’s down only because Congress has stopped dumping new trillions in the name of COVID relief. And Biden didn’t want it to stop: The Build Back Better bill he spent months trying to pass would’ve kept the spending party going.

But not to worry.  The chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors advises us that the president is “laser-focused” on inflation.  

If we are skeptical, its only because Biden has not demonstrated an ability to be laser-focused on anything. 

And Fed Chairman Powell, who presides over US inflation’s reincarnation, will get another four-year term.

Nobody in Washington knows what is happening to anything other than their own approval ratings, election prospects, and career paths.  Just like you would expect from an empire in decline.

It is a powerful argument for owning gold and silver.  Because when empires decay, their money goes down with them.

The dollar will be no exception. 

Money Supply Explodes!

Just like it did during the Stagflation Decade!

Plus Joe Biden, the fiscal conservative?

Just in time for the 2022 election, President Biden is suddenly trying to re-package himself as a fiscal conservative.

That’s quite a stretch!

Meanwhile, Charlie Bilello, CEO of Compound Capital notes that the US money supply has increased by over 50 percent in the last three years.  That is the largest 3-year increase ever:

The only other times when Money Supply increased by [greater than] 40% in a 3-yr period: 1973 & 1977-78.

Both were followed by high inflation, recessions (1973-75, 1980, 1981-82) and bear markets.

And finally, what has happened to America’s dynamic engine of growth?  David Stockman points out that trend growth in productivity has been weakening for five decades, roughly since Nixon abandoned the gold dollar.

Here’s the breakdown:  

Y/Y Labor Productivity Change, 1953-2022

  • Q1 1953-Q1 1973: 2.72%
  • Q1 1973-Q4 2007: 1.97%
  • Q4 2007-Q4 2019: 1.34%
  • Q4 2019-Q1 2022: 1.13%

So today’s growth trend of 1.13 percent “is barely two-fifths of the 2.72 percent per annum rate which prevailed during the heyday of American prosperity between 1953 and 1973.”

If you would like to know more about America’s declining productivity and wealth, and the crisis of our unpayable federal debt, you will want to read my new book.  

It’s called REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: The American Gold Story.  You will learn how to protect yourself from the dollar destruction that is already underway at the hands of the Federal Reserve and has given us the highest inflation in decades.

We have a free copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE waiting for you.  Stop by Republic Monetary Exchange in Phoenix on Camelback just east of 40th Street.

Revisiting the Dollar

It’s an ever-changing yardstick!  Unlike gold!

President Biden said something characteristically confused the other day when news came that the US economy is shrinking, down 1.4 percent in the January-February-March quarter.  

A contracting economy is not good news.  It’s even worse when you realize that consensus economists were expecting quarterly growth of 1.1. percent.  So, the total swing from positive expectations to the negative reality was 2.5 percent.  

Two consecutive quarters of contraction is the official definition these days of a recession.

Biden blurted out that he wasn’t that concerned about a recession.  It’s hard to imagine that millions of American families would be so cavaliere about their future prospects.  

But Biden quickly pivoted to the politically correct formulation.  Actually, he said, “you’re always concerned about a recession… but the GDP, you know, fell to 1.4 percent.” 

Actually, no.  Biden clearly had no idea what was going on.  The GDP did not fall “to” 1.4 percent, as though it had been slightly higher, but its growth had slowed to a mere 1.4 percent growth.

The US economy actually contracted – shrank – shriveled – by 1.4 percent.  

Big difference.

Not to be outdone, at his long-anticipated May 4 press conference, the one in which he would describe how the Fed was going to tame inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was asked if the Fed had a credibility problem with the American people.  

No, he answered.   Never mind the Fed’s still shrouded in secrecy insider trading scandal.  Forget a total misdiagnosis of inflation as transitory.   No, he answered, the Fed has no credibility problem.

And with that, Powell was defending himself, the central bank, and the US dollar itself.  

Job not well done.  For the financial press and bubble vision TV may have been full of stories about how “strong” the dollar is.  But the truth was quite different.  Strong?  When it continues to buy less and less?

John Tamny (@johntamny)at Real Clear Markets put it this way:  

The dollar is “strong”? How? Why would money be anything but a constant measure of value?… 

Indeed, while currencies no longer have a gold definition, gold still speaks through the markets. At present the “mighty” dollar is worth 1/1900th of a gold ounce. When the 21st century began a dollar purchased roughly 1/300th of a gold ounce.

The shame, as always, is that this is even being discussed. No one talks about a “strong” inch, foot, or minute. All three are quiet. As constant measures of length and time, they just facilitate the understanding of reality. Money is no different, or should be no different.

John Tamny

The New York Sun summed up this all-to-common confusion about dollar strength this way:  “The dollar might well be king of today’s debased global currencies, but it wears a tin pot for a crown.”

We think this is a good time to keep a close watch on the monetary and fiscal authorities and what they say that is not actually so.

It is also a good time to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional about wealth preservation in an age of wealth destruction.

The Fed’s Big Day!

No Resolve to End Inflation!  

The Fed labored mightily, and brought forth…

A mouse!

We’ve adapted the line from one of Aesop’s fables that describe any great effort that delivers very little.

So the Federal Reserve has promised and teased and vowed and threatened for months now that it would get a handle on credit conditions and interest rates at its May meeting.

On Wednesday, the Fed concluded its gathering with this announcement:

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1.

So in the face of double-digit inflation, the Fed raised its key rate to around one percent.  It was described as the most significant one-day Fed tightening action in decades.  What is clear is that hving inflated its balance sheet to $9 trillion dollars with its recent money-printing binge, the Fed simply lost its nerve on unwinding this excess.  Along with its 50 basis point increase in the Fed funds rate – which continues to leave the rate deeply negative – the Fed’s apologist widely telegraphed a balance sheet run-off $90 billion a month beginning now, in May.  Instead, it announced a $47.5 billion decrease in June, followed by several months of the same reduced pace.

Some analysts conclude that the Fed has already lost its tightening resolve.  Michael Shedlock says the Fed’s announcement amounts to “baby steps.”   Shedlock says the Fed’s announcement “strongly suggest the Fed will abandon QT as soon as a deep recession or credit market event hits.” observes that the Fed is pushing rates up “too little, too late” after 13 years of rampant money-printing.

The market shrugged off the move, too.  The major stock indices leave and breathe cheap Fed rates, so they all moved higher, the Dow up 900 points.  

Gold and silver both inched higher, too on the Fed’s lack of seriousness.

Stagflation is Here

Just did a quick word search to see how many times we have warned you over the past year about the stagflation headed our way.

The answer is many, many times.

Now the numbers are in and it’s official.  Stagflation is here.  

Let us re-print some of our warnings about stagflation.  We’ll get to the latest numbers.

Since stagflation is a combination of a weak or no growth economy and high inflation, in our post Reminds Us of the ’70s! we described conditions this way:

Weak growth makes it increasingly impossible for debtors – individuals and corporate – to service their massive debts.  That is because sales slow down, margins are squeezed, businesses are forced to cut prices, pay raises do not materialize, and jobs disappear.

At the same time inflation means the purchasing power of the currency falls, interest rates rise in compensation, and saving money becomes pointless.  And it blows up the bond market.  

There is a haven of safety and profit in an era of stagflation:  Gold.

In our piece STAG + FLATION: The worst of both worlds! we cited famed NYU economist Nouriel Roubini who said “a slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable”:  

He worries that debt ratios are much higher today than they were in the 70s.  Debt ratios are three times higher than in the stagflation decade.  “The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period,” says Roubini.  “The question is not if but when.”

Thus, the conditions that propelled gold and silver to new highs in the stagflation decade are assembling again.  We recommend our friends and client take steps now to protect themselves in the time-tested way, with a solid portfolio of gold and silver.

In The New Stagflation Decade, we wrote that the Keynesian economic priesthood that has dominated US economic policy for almost a century, insisted that high inflation and a stagnating economy couldn’t co-exist:

If the economy was stagnating, they believed, then the central bank would just print gobs of new money and – presto! – full employment.

So that’s what they did in the 1970s.  They printed money.  Boy, howdy, did they print money!  Prices took off.  And the economy stood still.  And began to shrink.

Despite the fact that inflation reached 12.3 percent in 1974, economic growth was negative that year and the next, while unemployment rose to 8.2 percent. 

“That’s impossible!” screamed the Keynesian big government economist.  “Print more money!”

And they did.

By 1979, the inflation rate was 13.3 percent.  

And a world-changing gold and silver market was the result.

So here are the latest numbers. You already know that the Consumer Price Index for the 12 months through March was up 8.5 percent, the highest in 40 years.  We know the CPI in some markets like Phoenix came in over 10 percent and believe the real national inflation numbers may be closer to 16 or 17 percent.

And growth?  It is non-existent.  The usual establishment suspects told us that the economy would grow 1.1 percent in the Jan – March quarter.  But the economy is shrinking, not growing.  It contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter.

The next question is this:  Will the Fed really raise interest rates when the economy is contracting?  For those who know what happened in the 1920s, it doesn’t sound like a good choice.  

But because the geniuses in Washington spent $30 trillion we don’t have, and printed trillions of made-up phony dollars in the last couple of years, there are no good choices left.  Now we have arrived at the reckoning for the madness of our times.  

Buy gold.

Fed Interest Rate Moves Rule the Markets

Time to be wary!  Move to the sidelines with gold!

Has there ever been so much blather about a Fed interest rates policy change – especially one so long in coming?

In hopes of minimizing the impact of the rate hike when it actually hits, the Fed has been telegraphing its forthcoming decision for months.  The most widely anticipated step is that a 50 basis point (1/2 percent) increase in the Fed funds rate will be announced at the conclusion of the Fed’s May 3 – 4 meeting.  Already the Fed is talking up additional hikes of the same amount in both June and July.

Higher US interest rates have buoyed the US dollar in currency markets recently.  

This is the source of much confusion among the investing public.  It is true that the dollar has risen compared to other currencies.  But the dollar and the currencies that it is compared to are all losing purchasing power.  

Let us restate that:  The dollar is said to be higher.  But in reality, it is lower.  It buys less than it did before.  The dollar index is up about 13 percent over the last year.  But the dollar buys much less – perhaps 10 percent less than it did a year ago.

So, if you are, like the famous Seinfeld character Art Vandelay, involved in some indeterminate importing-exporting business, you may care about the dollar index and your payables and receivables in foreign currencies.  

But if like most Americans, you are paid in dollars, you spend dollars, you save in dollars, and you plan your future in dollars, what really matters to you is the purchasing power of those dollars.


The median age in the US is 38 years.  This chart shows what has happened to the purchasing power of the dollar during this average American’s life span:

What is coming with this new Fed tightening cycle?  David Stockman answers:  “What’s coming down the pike is not your grandfather’s recession. That is, an economic contraction caused by the Fed hitting the brakes on credit growth because the housing and business investment sectors got too hopped up on cheap debt.”

No, this time, “the Fed will be forced to keep on tightening–until real interest rates finally become meaningfully positive. And that will mean that the epicenter of the recession this time around will be Wall Street, not main street.

“As we said, what is coming down the pike is not your grandfather’s recession.”

Pay no attention to the financial news chatter that tells you the dollar is up, or that the Fed has wise policy choices on the drawing board.  

It is all sleight of hand designed to distract y0u from a calamity that we have not witnessed in our lifetimes.  Give all unbacked, digital, and printed fiat money wide berth as they work their way to their ultimate commodity value.  

Which is nothing more than paper and ink.

Time Proves the US Dollar is a Poor Substitute for Gold

The US dollar’s role as a substitute for gold in international affairs, formalized with the Bretton Woods Agreement at the end of World War II, continues to break down.

It was destined to fail because in substituting dollars for gold, participants were asked to trust in the financial integrity of the government.  It was only a question of how long the illusion of trustworthiness would last.

The latest government to peel away from greater reliance on the dollar as a currency reserve is Israel.   The country’s central bank has announced a sweeping change in its reserve disposition, heretofore limited to positions in the US dollar, the euro, and the British pound.

Now Israel is adding China’s yuan, the Japanese yen, and both the Canadian and Australian dollars.

The US dollar’s share of Israel’s central bank reserves falls from 66.5 percent to 61 percent.

Moves away from the dollar will accelerate around the world, now that President Biden has announced that the US will unilaterally grab dollar reserves around the world when it wishes.  See our commentary “Has the Biden Administration Started a Global Currency Crisis?” 

The dollar’s share of global reserve functions has eroded from 85 percent in the 1970s.  It is now down to 59 percent, off seven percent since 2014.  

As the post-World War II monetary system continues to decay, protect yourself by speaking with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional and taking sensible steps to reduce your exposure to a developing dollar crisis.

German Inflation Redux

This is one of the most shocking charts we have seen this year.  It shows that Eurozone Producer Prices, or wholesale prices, have climbed 31.4 percent for the 12 months through February.  

Revolutions have been made of less!

US News reports that “energy prices were up 83.8% from March 2021… The main driver of that increase was the strong price increase in natural gas, which was up 144.8% on the year.”

Germans have long a deep and persistent aversion to inflation, a remnant of the brutally ruinous monetary inflation of Weimar Republic Germany a century ago, the calamity that paved the way for Naziism and Hitler.  

Everyone who want to see how inflation can ruin even a modern, industrial economy should read my new book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE:  The American Gold Story.  From the book, here is a short description of events in Germany from the period featuring the Jerome Powell of his day, Rudolf von Havenstein:

At the beginning of the period [in 1919] one gold mark was worth about 100 paper German marks. By November 1923, one gold mark was equal to about 100 trillion paper German marks. It cost 36 billion marks to send a postcard from Munich to Prague. The cost of a loaf of bread, only about one mark before the debacle, eventually rose to 200 billion marks. No wonder: at the peak of the madness there were 30 paper mills, 150 printing firms, and 2,00o noisy printing presses cranking out von Havenstein’s currency. 

It makes today’s quiet and easy electronic money printing look positively sophisticated, although ours is the same old flim-flam dressed up for the digital age. Unbacked currency, whether paper or digital, is not wealth. It is instead only an accounting fraud, one that masks its intended function of transferring wealth. 

Despite the license to print currency without limitation, the German State was so desperate for currency other than its own, that in September 1923 police raided restaurants and nightclubs in Berlin, searching the wallets and purses of customers for foreign cash. 

As conditions deteriorated, one Berlin newspaper asked if von Havenstein understood that Germany’s workers could starve. But Havenstein insisted all along that prices spinning out of control and the mark’s collapsing exchange rate were unrelated to his furious money-printing. At the end of the monetary tragedy von Havenstein died, apparently coincidentally.  

The affair decimated the German economy and radicalized the people. Crime proliferated: gasoline was siphoned from parked cars; prostitution flourished; urban dwellers stormed the farms of the countryside looking for food. With the social fabric shredded, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at 90 percent, and the unemployment rate nearing 25 percent (soon to be 30 percent), the first of the Nazis’ infamous Nuremberg rallies was held in September 1923. Thirty-four-year-old Adolf Hitler spoke to a crowd a hundred thousand strong.

If you would like to have a free copy of this important book, written to prepare you for what happens next in America’s developing monetary crisis, stop by our offices.  And be sure to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional about the steps you must take to protect your family and your wealth.

Who Is On Your Side During the Inflation Crisis?

Not the mainstream media, that’s for sure!

Inflation has been called “the cruelest tax.”  Ruining the currency with inflation is certainly one of the most devious and disgusting things that governments do.  After all, there are procedures for raising taxes, procedures that involve legislation, public debate, and votes.

But inflation is a tax without legislation, without debate, and without votes.  There is no provision in the Constitution that allows bureaucrat to help themselves and their cronies to the public purse without the approval of the people.  So, inflation is all the proof you need that elements called the Deep State, the Invisible Government, the Permanent Government or Insiders, the Governing Classes, or the Washington Bureaucracy control the state without regard to the will of the people.  

The double-digit inflation of the last year has taken trillions from the people and gifted it to the state and its well-connected favorites.  Bloomberg Economics calculates that the average household must pay $5,200 more than last year for the same goods.  

Who speaks up on behalf of the people victimized by this brazen theft?   Here at Republic Monetary Exchange, we do what we can.  But we are not newspaper publishers or a television network.

We think the newspapers and networks should speak up for their readers, viewers, and customers.  But they do not do so.  Instead, they protect the Deep State Money Manipulators at every turn, concealing their larceny.  Instead of pulling back the curtain on inflation’s flim-flam and highlighting the Federal Reserve’s corruption of money’s purchasing power, instead of screaming that the inflation fraud must stop now, they fill their advice columns with absurd advice for consumers to do something… as though the people are responsible for their currency losing its value.

 Here’s an oh-too-typical example.  It is from the Arizona Republic, on Thursday, 4/21/22.  Financial columnist Russ Wiles parrots the Federal Reserve’s self-exonerating assertion that “moderate inflation is normal, desirable.”   Of course, there is no evidence for the claim.  And as you might expect the Federal Reserve does appear anywhere in the entire section of the piece titled, “Who, or what is to blame for this [inflation]?”

 Then Mr. Wiles offers up a few “inflation-fighting tactics”: 

“When driving, consider slowing down, accelerating more gradually, combining trips, and using price comparison apps.  When shopping, clip coupons and substitute lower-cost items for the more expensive ones.  Also, you can wear your shoes a little longer and go a few extra days between haircuts, wash your clothes when electricity rates are off-peak, join shopper-rewards programs, and so on.”

None of these pathetic tips will do a thing to stop the inflation bureaucracy.  Inflation will continue just as long as the authorities expand the conditions of money and credit.

But one thing to be learned from all this and similar flapdoodle is that big media serves big government and not you.

Oh, and one other lesson.  

Buy gold.

The Economy is About to Break!

Wholesale Prices are up 11.2 Percent!

Inflation, foreign war, rising interest rates, food shortages, sanctions, triple-digit oil prices, Fed policy, frantic White House…

Gold gets the picture!

Only one day after reporting consumer prices have risen 8.5 percent over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (wholesale prices) have skyrocketed up 11.2 percent in the same period.

The PPI increase just for the month of March was up 1.4 percent which is an annual wholesale inflation rate of about 17 percent.   

Gold reacted to the news with fresh upside momentum

Producer prices are now like a runaway train of higher prices headed right at American consumers.

The mainstream press prefers not to acknowledge the complicity of the US Federal Reserve is debasing the dollar’s purchasing power, but the Fed has increased the money stock (M2) by 42 percent since the end of 2019.

So in the face of virulent inflation, a monetary disorder that can wipe out the savings of generations – the capital formation that has helped make America prosperous – and can decimate the middle class, what is the Biden administration going to do about it?

We’ll let Vice President Kamala Harris answer that.  Here is her response to a Philadelphia news reporter last week:

I acknowledge one must acknowledge that prices are going up, and that people are working hard and, in many cases, are worried about whether they can get through the end of the month and make it all work.

What I can say is that people deserve to know that their president, that our administration, is concerned enough to do something about it, so that is what we are doing.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, leaves only one thing left to be said.  Buy gold and silver with both hands!

White House Shares Inflation Forecast


April 12, 2022

Inflation Rate Surges To 8.5 Percent! 


WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING, Press Secretary Jen Psaki, July 19, 2021

MS. PSAKI: We take inflation very seriously. It is under the purview of the Federal Reserve. As you know, they have regular quarterly meetings where they put out that information and any considerations publicly.

Their projection continues to be that, while there’s an — a projected increase in inflation this year, it’s expected to come back down to about 2.2 next year. They have not changed that, and that is aligned with a number of outside economists as well.

You’re also correct that when the economy is turning back on from a global pandemic, there isn’t a lot of historic precedent for that.

And certainly, we’re seeing prices go back to pre-pandemic levels in some cases. We’re also seeing a range of factors, including shortages in the supply chain — from chips shortages that are impacting the auto industry to lumber shortages that are impacting the housing industry — that are also factors here as we’re seeing price increases.

But we do look at all of that. We take it incredibly seriously. And we respect the role of the Federal Reserve as well.

Up, Up, and Away

Inflation is up, and your dollars’ purchasing power is going away!

Consumer prices have climbed 8.5 percent over the last 12 months.

Stated differently, if you had tucked away $1,000 a year ago – congratulations!  Your purchasing power has shrunk to $850.

In some parts of the country, the inflation rate is now at 10 percent or more.  And in fact, the inflation rate in March annualizes to well over 14 percent.  

Inflation has been spiraling higher month after month, plundering the savings of the American people and decapitalizing them.  

But it’s not just that the monetary authorities are taking wealth from you surreptitiously, without even the benefit of a legislated tax hike.  It’s also about the way the process of destroying the currency is hidden from the people.  

After all, in just the last two years the Federal Reserve has made up $2.6 trillion out of thin air.  But it tends to escape the notice of the financial press.

If the authorities jack the amount of printed money up by 40 percent, do you think it might dilute the purchasing power of all the other dollars that are already out there?  

But the national financial press can’t seem to come to terms with that.  The Wall Street Journal writes that “this bout of high inflation” can be attributed to a strong economy, to Russia, and to supply chain issues. 

See for yourself:

There are several reasons behind this bout of high inflation. First, the economy is strong and employers have been adding more than 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months. Energy prices also soared in early March as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed up crude-oil prices. And food prices are rising rapidly due to higher demand and supply chain issues. The conflict in Ukraine will likely push up food prices further since Ukraine and Russia are major wheat and fertilizer exporters.

Not a word about the Fed.

Canada’s leading business journal, the Financial Post, citing an expert, says the exact same thing.  Once again, see for yourself:

Over the past 30 years globalization, demographics, technological change have driven prices. The Fed cannot do anything about the three of them,” said RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas. “We are just going through a period of prolonged disruption” that could mean structurally higher inflation as populations age and then save less and spend down assets, and globalization suffers through a series of shocks including the trade war launched by former President Donald Trump, the pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine.

Once again, it is not the fault of the crazed money printers.    

As for the Washington Post, one of its star columnists explains that all we need to do about inflation is have more immigration.  Right.  But at least they are deflecting blame from the Bernankes, Yellens, and Powells in an original way.  

Don’t be deluded by any of this rhetorical sleight of hand.  If you would like to find out more about how our money is being corrupted and learn how to protect yourself with gold and silver, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

When You Add It All Up…

…It looks like a great time to buy gold and silver!

The Federal Reserve has its sights on the stock market and is about to pull the trigger and bring the bull to its knees.  At the same time, the European war has food prices rip-roaring higher.  Because people would rather pay high prices than starve, just wait until price indices like the Consumer Price Index have to start acknowledging food shortages and the prices they usher in.  And then there is the issue of the dollar’s declining role in the global monetary order.

When you put it all together, it screams GOLD!  Let’s start with the Fed’s plans for the stock market.  Here are a couple of headlines to set the stage:

“Band of America warns ‘recession shock’ coming…”  “Rate Surge Starts to Ripple Through Economy…”  

Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, is explicit in his warning of pain to come for Wall Street: “It’s hard to know how much the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control. But one thing is certain: To be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.” 

Dudley is saying, according to MarketWatch, that the Fed “won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running at around a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer.”

Where does all that Wall Street money go when blood is flowing in the stock and bond markets?  It must go somewhere.  May we suggest gold.

Now let’s turn to one of our favorites, former Reagan budget director David Stockman to get his view on “the coming stock market crash of biblical proportions.

We haven’t been in these kinds of uncharted waters for a long time, not since the 1970s….

If you go back to March 2000, when the dot-com bubble collapsed, the NASDAQ peaked at 4600, and the market dropped by 30% in the next 15 days. And after that bone-rattling drop people said it’s all over. The worst has happened, and you should buy the dip. You’re going to make a lot of money.

And over the next two years, they kept buying the dip, but over the next two years, the NASDAQ went from 4,600 to 3,300, all the way down to 800. An 80% plus decline and all that dip buying resulted in massive losses and pain.

I think we’re going to go through the same thing again.

Meanwhile, you can expect food prices to take a toll on people around the world.  US Senator Joni Ernst, from Iowa, is talking about an “impending famine.”  Here are her remarks on Fox Business News:

About 40 to 45 percent of the production in Ukraine will be decreased this year because of the war and the scarcity of supplies that go into the planting season. And we know that Ukraine also supports about 400 million people around the world with its food products. So, we do see that we have an impending famine. And I’ve heard from David Beasley at the World Food Bank that he’s now going to have to take from the hungry to feed the starving.

Skyrocketing food prices spell higher gold prices as well, especially when global food producers aren’t keen on a failing dollar.  And on that note, we will finish with Ron Paul’s summation of the dollar’s predicament in the global economy:

America may soon pay the price for attempting to fund a massive welfare-warfare state with fiat currency, America’s ham-fisted intervention in the Ukraine-Russian conflict has caused more countries to seek alternatives to the dollar. This increases pressure for the dollar to lose its world reserve currency status. When that happens, the US will face a major economic crisis featuring hyperinflation, massive unemployment, and the growth of authoritarian political movements. The only way these problems can be avoided is if the people demand the federal government stop trying to run their lives, run the economy, and run the world.

Visit with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals specialist today to find out more about what will add up to higher precious metals prices.

Inflation Déjà Vu

Just like before… only worse!

Ever felt like you’ve been here before?  

We’re having serious inflation déjà vu.   Today’s double-digit inflation is like the 1970s all over again.  We’re getting used to seeing higher prices every time we go to the store.

We’re getting used to the US dollar buying less.

And we’re getting used to seeing the president say it’s not his fault.

Sit back, click below, and enjoy the inflation nostalgia.

The difference between today’s and the Stagflation Decade is that in 1978 the US national debt was “only” $722 billion.  Today it is 42 times that, $30.34 trillion!

In 1978 the US money supply (M1, below) was about $350 billion.  It has increased by 5900 percent.  Today it is $20.641 trillion! 

In 1978 the budget deficit was 2.5 percent of GDP.  In 2020, even before Covid, it was almost 15 percent.  Back in the 1970s, the US was the manufacturing hegemon of the world.  Today our manufacturing is outsourced.  Back then the dollar was “King Dollar.”  Today the dollar’s share of the world’s foreign currency reserves is in decline.  

IN 1978 the US economy (GDP) grew 5.54 percent.  We haven’t seen the economy grow that fast in 38 years.

Today inflation is no laughing matter.  It is making American poorer.   Because inflation is destroying what remains of trust in the dollar around the world, it will continue to lose value.

What can you do to protect yourself, your retirement, and your family?  Do what people everywhere have in times of phony, fiat government money.  Turn to gold and silver for safety and wealth preservation.

Let us answer your questions about the coming monetary crisis.  Contact a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

US Mint Sees Record Gold Demand

…and Continues to Experience Silver Shortages!

Thanks to double-digit inflation, the policy confusion of the monetary authorities, and political chaos, not to mention a war in Europe, the US mint reports record-setting demand for its gold coins in March.

American Eagle gold coins sales for March soared 73.7 percent over February, from 89,000 ounces to 155,500 ounces.  Sales were up sharply, 136 percent, from their March 2021 total of 66,000 ounces as well.

It was the US Mint’s highest March sales performance since 1999.  

For the first quarter 2022 the Mint’s American bullion demand reached 426,500 total ounces, up 3.5 percent from 2021’s first quarter.

Silver demand was down somewhat for the quarter. The American Silver Eagle sales total of 7,581,500 ounces was 37 percent lower than experienced with the unprecedented demand in the first three months of 2021.

Silver shortages at the US Mint acted to repress silver sales.  Due to an inadequate supply of silver planchets, the Mint announced in March that it would not strike 2022 Morgan and Peace silver dollars.  

Conditions have driven premiums for silver products up, according to Numismatic News, which writes, “The wholesale and retail prices of the bullion issue U.S. silver Eagle dollars have also increased relative to the commodity market silver spot prices…. So long as the market price for physical silver remains consistently higher than the paper commodity contract price, the U.S. Mint is going to continue experiencing difficulty in obtaining sufficient silver.”

In a subsequent piece, Numismatic News pointed to difficulties getting physical silver delivered on commodity exchange contracts.  “In addition to there being difficulties of the U.S. Mint obtaining sufficient silver Eagle dollar planchets from their suppliers, there is also the difficulty of actually obtaining physical silver upon maturity of commodity contracts.”

A Dark Day for Real Money

This Tuesday will be 89 Years Since the Government Criminalized Gold Ownership

 I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations….

Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or of these regulations or of any rule, regulation or license issued thereunder may be fined not more than $10,000, or, if a natural person, may be imprisoned for not more than ten years, or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Executive Order 6102, April 5, 1933

There are certain dates in American history that deserve to be remembered for events that eroded our Constitutional monetary system.  One of those was 89 years ago this week when the US government made it a criminal offense for Americans to own monetary gold.

Our thanks to Tho Bishop at the Mises Institute for his account of this infamous anniversary.  Bishop writes:

“The order was one of the several disastrous responses to the Great Depression that succeeded in escalating the financial crisis. Later in the year, the US Congress would pass a resolution retroactively supporting the legislation; however, it was the determined autocratic leadership of FDR that made way for these unprecedented measures. It would be a crime for Americans to hold gold for over forty years until President Gerald Ford reversed the order in 1974. 

“This episode has several lessons for the current financial environment, particularly given the acceleration of tyranny-by-expert rule that has taken over much of the worst this past year.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt

“The underlying legislation that evoked by FDR’s executive order was the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917—a by-product of World War I—despite the fact that the US was in no way in a period of war in 1932. Similarly, we have seen war on terror–inspired financial legislation increasingly used against American citizens. For example, in the name of “fighting terrorism” the US PATRIOT Act significantly increased know-your-customer laws, empowering federal regulators to use the traditional banking system to better track the economic behavior of American citizens.”

The objective of Roosevelt’s gold grab was twofold: first, to devalue the dollar then and there, and then to get gold out of the way.  Gold’s role in the monetary system acted as a brake on the Fed’s expansion of money and credit and the endless growth of the State.  It was an impediment to deficit spending that had to go.  Gold had to go because it made the individual’s financial well-being dependent upon himself, instead of upon State benefactors and the decrees of the monetary authorities.  It was a bulwark against the erosion of property and individual rights.  Gold had to go.

Roosevelt’s action was a brazen affront to the free American people and an assault on the Constitution itself.

Real Money for Free People: The American Gold Story

To this day it reminds us that private ownership of gold is not just a means of protecting our individual wealth and prosperity.  It is an assertion of liberty that the founders, great men like Washington, Franklin, Jefferson, and Madison intended for the new American republic.

For a compelling review of America’s money, including the confiscation of gold by FDR and other corrupting incidents that have made possible the return of inflation today at levels not seen in decades, read my new book, REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: the American Gold Story.

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today, or stop by our office for a complimentary copy.

Commodities Do Not Cause Inflation!

Money Printing Causes Inflation…

The Mises Institute, Daniel Lacalle Says:  The Ukraine war has created another excuse to blame inflation on oil and natural gas. However, it seems that all those who blame inflationary pressures on commodities continue to ignore the massive price increases in housing, healthcare, and education, as well as in goods and services where there was evident overcapacity. Global food prices show a similar problem…. 

Now the increase in broad money has translated to an explosion in all prices, energy-related or not. Some will blame wages, others will blame the Ukraine war, and others will blame the weak recovery. The fact is that currency destruction is at the heart of generalized price rises everywhere. Everything else is anecdotes or consequences, not causes.

More units of currency are going to scarce assets as investors look for protection against inflation. This is not speculation; it is protection from currency debasement.

The Consumer’s Perfect Storm

The Perfect Storm: Incomes are Lower, Prices are Soaring, and Supply Chains are Fragile

1. Accelerating Inflation Takes Its Toll as American Incomes Continue to Fall

The Wall Street Journal Says:  Personal income increased by 0.5% in February over the prior month, a pickup after it was nearly flat in January, but inflation rose more quickly. Income after taxes, adjusted for inflation, fell for the seventh straight month in February to the lowest level since March 2020. The data add up to a picture of the economy growing as shoppers benefit from a strong labor market and rising wages, but see those gains eroded by rising inflation.

2. Americans Say They’re Feeling Inflation!  You Don’t Suppose?

More than three out of four Americans say they have been impacted by inflation, according to a report published by CNBC.  Of course, wages are failing to keep pace with rising consumer prices.  Last year the survey found that 15 percent of employees regularly ran out of money between paychecks.

Now that number is almost 20 percent.

Gold is the currency of choice in times of inflation and crisis.  Whether it is called a “flight to quality” or a “flight to safety,” gold is the world’s money of choice in times of trouble.  That’s because of its superior qualities as money, qualities that have outlasted every conceivable type of government and countless paper money schemes, and survived world wars and global depressions.

3. Advice to “Entitled” Generation:  Get Used to Shortages.

Are you a member of an entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice?  Rob Kapito, the president of BlackRock, the world’s largest investment firm says, “For the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want.”

Buckle your seat belts, warns Kapito.  “’We have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice,” says the head of the $10 trillion dollar investment management company.

We will only note that a firm the size of Blackrock has had the political clout to object to the monetary policies that have brought us to today’s financial crisis.  And one would think the firm had a moral obligation to resist the policies that have plundered their clients’ assets with double-digit inflation. 

Inflation Hotspot!

Republic Monetary Exchange is a full-service precious metals brokerage firm with friends and clients just about everywhere.  Because our offices are in Phoenix, Arizona, you won’t be surprised to learn that we have so many clients in Arizona.

Republic Monetary Exchange Office in Phoenix, AZ

Arizona is a beautiful state.  People like living here and are coming from far and wide.

But now our fair state has come in for some unwanted attention.  

Since Joe Biden became president, inflation has catapulted to levels that haven’t been seen in decades.  The fact is the median age of the American people is 37.9 years.  But inflation is at the highest level in more than 40 years.  That means that a majority of Americans have never experienced inflation as high as it is today.  

The official US inflation rate, the Consumer Price Index, is 7.9 percent.  That number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics means that consumer prices rose 7.9 percent for the 12-month period through the end of February. 

But unfortunately, consumer prices are rising even faster in the Phoenix area.  According to the government numbers, the CPI for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale rocketed up 10.9 percent over the last 12 months.

That is the highest inflation rate in the United States!  The Wall Street Journal calls metro-Phoenix “America’s #1 Inflation Hotspot.” 

None of this should be much of a surprise to our Phoenix-area clients.  Higher prices are evident everywhere.

One of the reasons the Phoenix cost of living is so high is because of real estate.  The Census Bureau reports that during the first full year of the Coronavirus pandemic, from mid-2020 to mid-2021, Phoenix grew by 78,000 people.

Other notable growth cities are Dallas and Houston, growing by 97,000 and 69,000 people respectively.  Both those cities grew by a combination of migration and births outpacing deaths.  But the growth of Phoenix, according to the Associated Press, is driven primarily by people coming from elsewhere in the US.

What cities are the big population losers?  Exactly the places you would guess.

New York lost 328,000 residents.  Metropolitan Los Angeles lost 176,000, San Francisco 116,000 residents, and greater Chicago lost 91,000 people. 

We don’t mind telling you that the official government inflation statistics grossly understate real increases in the cost of living.  The way it under-estimates housing costs is practically legendary.

But no matter how the numbers are totaled, and no matter where you live, inflation is a severe problem today.  Every dollar you have is losing purchasing power fast.  Few people have any idea how to navigate and prosper in an inflationary episode.  

We do.  We are gold and silver specialists.  For thousands of years, people have turned to precious metals to protect themselves from the shady practices of the monetary authorities.

Today is no different.  Why not make an appointment with us today and learn how to protect yourself from inflation, already high and headed higher?

How to Fight Inflation (According to the “Experts”)

If they said to buy gold, we would take them seriously!

War!  Food crisis!   Debt crisis!  And double-digit inflation!

We’re pretty sure that the same people that brought all this trouble on shouldn’t be giving advice about dealing with it.  But they do anyway.  So, the experts are once again giving out free advice on how to deal with inflation.

Teresa Ghilarducci is the Schwartz Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research.  That name – the school’s not the professor’s – is enough to give us pause.  Justifiably, it turns out.  Its website brags about something called “progressive scholarship.”  We would feel better if it claimed rigorous scholarship.  But let’s just go to the advice Professor Ghilarducci offered on Bloomberg News: 

  • To deal with gas prices, take public transportation
  • Now may be the time to sell your car
  • Tasty substitutes like lentils and beans are healthier and cheaper than meat.
  • You may want to rethink costly medical treatment for pets. 

It reminds us of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown who advised fighting inflation in the 1970s by storing your vegetables more carefully.  President Ford went on television about the same time to advise Americans to fight inflation by licking their dinner plates clean.

Oh, and you could send off for a WIN button, “Whip Inflation Now.”

We have a couple of better ideas.  First, Washington could stop spending money it doesn’t have, and the Federal Reserve could stop printing more dollars.  But since they won’t do that, we think you should deal with inflation by owning gold and silver.  

Call us today to find out why that is a far better way of dealing with inflation than just letting your beloved pets die.

Inflation Shows Up Everywhere

Snackers and munchers across the land are deeply disappointed to discover that double-digit inflation has now shown up even in the number of chips in their Dorito bags!

The nacho cheese-flavored Doritos snack bags have been downsized by five chips, shrinking from 9.75 to 9.25 ounces.

It’s just another case of “shrinkflation.”  Manufacturers hide rising prices by reducing package sizes.  Cereal boxes look the same, but they’re narrower and hold less.  A roll of toilet paper has fewer total sheets or is narrower.  Either way, the actual content is reduced.

There are other ways of hiding price increases.  Sometimes cheaper materials are used in manufacturing, reducing the product’s quality.  If a long warranty was standard with a product, it may get shorter or even disappear altogether.  Customer service gets cut back.  Was delivery and set up free for appliances purchases?  Now it may be an extra charge.  

It amounts to a deterioration of quality and our overall standard of living.  But what can the businesses do?  They may be trying to hide price increases, but why are prices rising to begin with?  Prices are rising because our money is being ruined by money printing.  Its purchasing power is being diluted.  It buys less.

The dwindling purchasing power of the dollar affects people differently.  One woman we know was especially aggrieved when what had always been a five-pound bag of sugar shrank to only four pounds.  “That’s just not right,” she said. “Most of the sugar canisters are made for five pounds!”

Others are angered by the incredible shrinking candy bar – more cardboard and wrapping, with less actual chocolate.

The idea of trying to satisfy a Doritos snack appetite with five fewer chips in simply too much for others.  Even Ron Paul noticed.

The former presidential candidate and congressman got right to the heart of the matter:

Congress should also restore a sound monetary policy by auditing, then ending, the Fed, as well as by repealing both legal tender laws and capital gains taxes on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Ending the era of the welfare-warfare state and fiat currency can lead to a transition to a new era of liberty, peace, prosperity — and full bags of Doritos.

We agree.  But until Congress does what Dr. Paul suggests, you need to protect yourself, your family, your retirement, and your wealth with gold and silver.

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

Has the Biden Administration Started a Global Currency Crisis?

Here comes the worldwide scramble for gold.

This is big.

In his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden announced measures to make what he called Russia’s $630 “war fund” worthless.

“We are cutting off Russia’s largest banks from the international financial system,” said Biden. 

There is no way to put it nicely.  The Federal Reserve has confiscated Russia’s foreign currency reserves.

As with most acts in life, the important question is what the consequences will be.  And not just the reaction of Russia which must make new and important decisions about energy and other vital resource commerce with the West.  

Just as important is how the rest of the world will respond to the discovery that their US dollar reserve can be grabbed at any time.  Influential blogger Michael Shedlock asks, “If the Fed can do this to Russia, who else?”

Shedlock points out that not only is the asset freeze unprecedented, it is also illegal.  “Nowhere does the act give the Fed the right or power to confiscate the reserves of sovereign nations.  But that is exactly what the Fed did.”

Will China with its huge dollar reserves fail to notice that they are in jeopardy without notice?  Will it care that the US dollar has are now weaponized in a way that puts their trillion US dollar reserves at risk?

Will other foreign nations and central banks fail to notice?

Shedlock puts it this way:

Team Biden just sent an unmistakable message to China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and, well, actually everyone:

We can make your fiat reserves worthless overnight

– Buy gold
– Buy base metals.
– Hoard things you have everyone needs.

That’s pretty good advice, but you don’t need to bother buying lead, zinc, and other base metals.  In fact, the global base metals market is mired in scandal for the manipulation of markets and trades in nickel.

Gold is the world’s most liquid commodity, serving efficiently as money in good times and bad.  Silver is in second place and has special price advantages since it is trading at half its prior highs.

In either case, the post-World War II monetary system is cracking up.  Protect yourself by speaking with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional and taking sensible steps to reduce your exposure to a developing dollar crisis.

Hunger Set to Stalk the World

Food Prices Racing Higher! Gold and Silver More Critical Than Ever!

Consumer prices are up 7.9 percent over the last 12 months, while wholesale prices are 10 percent higher over the same period as reflected in the following chart:

Many believe that these numbers substantially understate the real price shock Americans are encountering every day.  

Now there is evidence that food prices are racing higher much faster.  

The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization’s Food Price Index reached an all-time high in February 2022.  As the next chart illustrates, it is up a breathtaking 20.7 percent from a year earlier.

Even that only seems to tell part of the story.  According to a Washington Post account, food prices and shortages are spreading panic in the Middle East:  

Prices of bread and other foodstuffs in Egypt, Syria and Lebanon have been increasing as concern over their availability mounts.

Egyptians have started complaining about the rising cost of food, some posting videos on TikTok to air their grievances. “The government … says merchants can’t raise prices; [that] there is no reason for merchants to raise prices. But the bread has gone up 50 percent, and to’miyah has [doubled] in price,” said one user, Mahmoud Mosa, referring to the cheap, Egyptian falafel-like disc made of fava beans.

Both the prior chart and the following one make clear that the rapid rise in food prices has been underway for years.  It coincides with the unprecedented spree of central bank money printing of recent years and is not merely a consequence of the Ukraine war of the last few weeks.

However, soaring fertilizer prices, due to the war in Ukraine, are expected to exacerbate future food shortages to crisis levels.

Federal Reserve measures to attempt to reign in double-digit inflation all fall under the category of too little, too late.  

We don’t wish to sound apocalyptic, but economic conditions are deteriorating very fast.  We urge our friends and clients to remember that in a crisis, scarce goods, including food, go to those who can pay in something other than a collapsing currency.

Make sure that you have adjusted your portfolio to the times with a new emphasis on precious metals.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today.

Russians Rushing to Buy Gold

Demand for gold by the Russian people is so overwhelming that the country’s central bank has backed away from buying so that the people’s demand can be met.

Here’s the lead from a March 15 Reuters account:

The Russian central bank said it will suspend the buying of gold from banks from Tuesday to meet increased demand for the precious metal from households, its latest attempt to weather the storm on Russian markets in the face of Western sanctions.

“Currently, households’ demand for buying physical gold in bars has increased, driven, in particular, by the abolition of value-added tax on these operations,” the central bank said in a statement….

The central bank, which will next meet on rates on Friday, has also been holding daily repo auctions as lending institutions scramble to manage their liquidity.

The bank said it would suspend its gold purchases from banks from March 15, without saying how long the change would last.

Russia is not the only country that has supported the desire of its people to protect themselves with gold.  China has become a power player in the global gold market, generally encouraging its people to own gold.  China is not only the world’s leading gold producer.  It is widely reported to have the world’s largest gold reserves.  In addition to reserves held by the People’s Bank of China, gold is presumably also held in accounts of the Chinese army and several of the communist party organizations.  

Russia is second only to China in gold production, followed by Australia.  

The United States is in fourth place.

Russia’s ruble has tumbled with the invasion of Ukraine.  The currency’s fall has led Russians to convert their ruble holdings into hard assets.  Luxury goods, watches, and other jewelry have been flying off shelves.  They are a poor substitute for gold, the world’s most liquid commodity.  But as inflation continues to climb, at some point people become anxious to convert their failing currency into any tangible good.

Ludwig von Mises calls a breakdown of this kind the crack-up boom:

A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds.

With Washington having printed $4.7 trillion in two years and spending $5 trillion in deficit stimulus, double-digit inflation was the predictable result.

Can a US dollar crack-up boom be far off?

‘Substantial’ Inflation Increase Coming; U.S. Recession Risk as High as 35%

All Signs Point to Stagflation with Higher Gold and Silver Prices

White House expects inflation will ‘substantially’ increase in coming months

Washington Examiner (3/11/22)  –  The White House is expecting “substantially” higher inflation figures in the coming months, even after the February Consumer Price Index posted the highest year-over-year rate since 1982.

Yearly inflation rose to 7.9% in February, which the White House attributed largely to a 3.5% increase in energy prices.

Inflation = loss of Purchasing Power of the Dollar (3/11/22)  –  Inflation is not a sign of growth, and it’s not a sign of anything positive. It’s just a sign of the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, including the purchasing power of dollar-denominated labor. And this is a long-term cumulative and relentless process that started to accelerate last year. In February, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to a new record low of $59.46.

Risk of a US recession as high as 35%, says Goldman Sachs

CNN Business (3/12/22)  –  Europe’s reliance on energy from Russia has jacked up the odds that the region could enter a recession this year as soaring inflation pushes people to cut back spending. The United States is more insulated from the spike in oil and gas prices — but it’s not immune.

What’s happening: Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2022. It now sees little to no growth during the first three months of the year.

Goldman’s economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said the chance of a recession in the United States over the next year has risen as high as 35%.

As Inflation Rages, US House Approves MASSIVE Aid To Ukraine! 

Ron Paul Liberty Report (3/11/22)  –  First it was $6 billion, then Biden made it $10 billion, then the US House upped the ante again: more than $13 billion US taxpayer dollars will be shipped to Ukraine. As Americans are ravaged by inflation at the supermarket and skyrocketing gasoline prices, will they still cheer for their money being sent overseas? (View HERE).

UMich Sentiment Slumps In March As ‘Hope’ Plunges, Inflation Expectations Surge (3/11/22)  –  Following February’s plunge to new post-COVID lows, March’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment data was expected to fall even further, plumbing new lows not seen since 2011. However, things were much worse than expected with the headline sentiment print dropping from 62.8 to 59.7 (well below 61.0 exp) as expectations plunged (from 59.4 to 54.4) and current conditions slipped from 68.2 to 67.8…

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, inflation expectations soared with the highest 1-year inflation expectations since Dec 1981.

From the Russian Revolution to Vietnam, war has been a reliable precursor to inflation

Wall Street Journal (3/11/22)  –  History may be about to repeat as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tilts the balance of global political and economic forces toward higher inflation. The main channels: First, more military spending, which strains the economy’s productive capacity. Second, embargoes, sanctions and fighting disrupt supply chains. These factors are clearly at work now.

Lessons from the War in Ukraine

It’s Not Really Gold Unless…

Financial events in the fallout of the Ukraine war are delivering a powerful message to investors.  It is a lesson we have written about before and one that deserves to be repeated again and again.  It can save investors looking for the safety and protection of gold a lot of loss and heartache.

Remember… it is not really gold unless you can hold it in your hands, take it with you, and access it when you need it most.

The London Metal Exchange is the leading trading center for industrial and strategic metals, including aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel, lead, tin.  Last year saw $15.6 trillion dollars of industrial metals traded on the LME.

This week saw a breakout in the world price of nickel, a consequence of the Russian-Ukraine war.  Nickel soared to $100,000 a ton.  Then the LME unilaterally canceled trades and stopped deliveries in nickel.  Transactions already legally processed were simply canceled.  According to one account, a major Chinese trading company facing $8 billion in losses, was bailed out by the move.  The losses will be shifted to others.

We have seen this before in the commodity exchanges when exchange cronies have been bailed out with unilateral exchange rules changes.

The fallout from the Ukraine war includes frozen payments and failure to settle financial obligations.  Without comment on whether any of these measures are wise or are applied fairly or even-handedly, we do not wish to see our friends and clients left holding the bag is such circumstances.  

Events like these highlight the importance of owning gold, especially in turbulent times.  A defining characteristic of gold that cannot be emphasized enough, is that it does not rely on someone else’s performance or promise.

It has no counterparty risk.  That is just one reason why gold is the world’s money of choice and has been for thousands of years.

The same is of course true of silver, which, like gold, has a long and shining monetary history.

What is counterparty risk?  

It is the risk of nonpayment, default, and bankruptcy by individuals, companies, financial exchanges, institutions, and banks – quite apart from the risk of the Fed’s fiat dollar. 

Gold (and silver) are the only monetary assets that are not someone else’s liability.  They are not dependent on someone else’s solvency, promises to perform, or honesty.  Their value does not depend on the endorsement or propriety of any state or state institution.

But this advantage is only true of real gold and silver. It only applies to physical precious metals, the gold and silver coins, and bullion that you own outright and have taken into your own possession.  It does not extend to paper gold, stocks, and other representations of gold ownership, commodity contracts, or ETFs.  It does not extend to promises of future delivery, title to gold held by others, or any form of unallocated gold.

At Republic Monetary Exchange we make immediate delivery to you, on the spot, of real gold.  Not paper, not some purported interest in or share of gold somewhere else that you cannot get when you need it, or an agreement that can be canceled by government or wars.  

Exchanges, funds, and banks can fail, leaving people holding the bag.  Someday, too, there will be a run on gold, just like a bank run.  “Paper” gold will fail.  People will be unable to get the gold they think they own.  

That is why you must protect yourself with real gold and real silver.

Remember… it is not really gold unless you can hold it in your hand, take it with you, and access it when you need it most.

And that is the way we do business at Republic Monetary Exchange.  Real gold.  Real silver.  Your gold.  Your silver.  Always best practices for the protection of our clients.

Reminds Us of the ’70s!

When stagflation made gold skyrocket!

I recently heard somewhere that “there may not be a lot of advantages to getting older, but it is a plus for investing”.  

Live long enough and you will have seen the same old flimflams over and over.  Like stagflation.  The last stagflation decade was the 1970s.  The Fed had printed a lot of money for their cronies and power-hungry politicians.  Price inflation skyrocketed.  The Fed was clueless and could not decide from one day to the next what to do about it.  The politicians were clueless, too, and kept spending money the country could not afford.

The parallels are even eerier than that.  Just like Russia today, the Soviets were on the march in the 1970s.  

And oil prices exploded, too!

To learn more about the Stagflation Decade see our prior comments HERE, HERE,  and HERE.

Since stagflation is a combination of a weak or no growth economy and high inflation, we described conditions this way:

“Weak growth makes it increasingly impossible for debtors – individuals and corporate – to service their massive debts.  That is because sales slow down, margins are squeezed, businesses are forced to cut prices, pay raises do not materialize, and jobs disappear.

“At the same time inflation means the purchasing power of the currency falls, interest rates rise in compensation, and saving money becomes pointless.  And it blows up the bond market.  

“There is a haven of safety and profit in an era of stagflation:  Gold.”

Nothing much has changed.  Be aware that higher prices for the essentials of life – like food and energy – meaning that the people have less money left over to save for the future or to spend on non-essentials.  That is tough on the stock price of a lot of companies.

Today’s inflation rate of 7.5 percent is the highest it has been in more than 40 years.  Since the median age of the American people is 37.9 years, most Americans have never experienced inflation this high.  Most have no idea how to navigate and prosper in an inflationary episode.  

One of the most important lessons is to be sure to protect your principal.  Do not be fooled by expressions like “this time is different,” or “it’ll come back” lull you into complacency about the stock market.  Remember that if you do not get out when the market is clearly cracking up, you will be sorry.  Take a good look at this chart which describes how difficult it is to get back to breakeven after suffering a stock market loss.

And to repeat the essential lesson of stagflation, “There is a haven of safety and profit in an era of stagflation:  Gold.”

To learn more about these economic times and how to preserve your wealth and protect your family, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today.

Inflation? What Inflation?

When the people in charge are this confused, you need to own gold!

Today’s subject matter comes from the people at Committee to Unleash Prosperity.  

“We’re still scratching our heads,” they confess, “trying to figure out what the White House strategy is for bringing down inflation which is now running between 7 and 10 percent depending on the measure used.”

It seems they watched the State of the Union address recently and thought someone was confused.

Very confused. 

They write:

Anyone with even a slight understanding of how businesses work in the real world (which is quite obviously NOT the brainiacs in this White House) probably fell off their chairs laughing when Biden lectured that to reduce inflation “businesses will have to cut your costs, not your wages.” Brilliant, Joe. They probably never thought of that. It’s also going to be pretty tough to “cut your costs, not your wages” when energy, construction, and labor costs are surging. As one of the late-night comics put it last night: “Well one way to reduce costs would be to fire workers.”

When the authorities speak of inflation but say nothing about the entity that actually inflates the money supply, you are in the spin zone.  The goal is to conceal rather than to reveal.  And so it went with the President.

But the Committee to Unleash Prosperity wasn’t done yet.

Then old Joe told a whopper when he said that new vehicles accounted for a third of all inflation over the last year. New vehicles accounted for only 6% of inflation. Even if you add new and used vehicles together, it accounts for only 17% of inflation, half of what he claimed. Inflation is everywhere right now.

Former US Budget Director David Stockman found a couple more whoppers in the State of the Union including the President’s claim “that he had created a record 6.7 million new jobs during his first year in office, but even that was a lie.” 

Stockman explains:  

The 149.162 million jobs figure reported for December 2021 was actually 107,000 below the level of jobs the Donald had “created” as of August 2018 (149.269 million).

Of course, neither of these hot dogs had anything to do with “creating” jobs. Businessmen, investors, and entrepreneurs operating on the free market do that—even as government endlessly throws regulatory, tax and Nanny State obstacles in their path.

But in this case, Biden’s claims were especially egregious because every single one of those 6.7 million were “born again” jobs—jobs that had existed a few years back and were just now being recovered from the government-imposed Lockdown disaster of 2020.

In fact, the more relevant point is that at the end of Biden’s first year there were still 3.34 million fewer nonfarm payroll jobs than existed at the February 2020 pre-Covid peak. That is to say, we still have a goodly amount of born-again jobs to recapture before anyone can claim “new” jobs, even if they had nothing to do with them.

And then there was the approval-seeking remark from Biden about keeping the economy growing strong.  But the economy is not growing strong.  The latest GDP Now growth estimate from the Atlanta Fed is…  zero.  

That’s right, we are headed for zero growth in the first quarter.   

“And falling fast!”  

That is the add-on comment on the GDP decline from Michael Shedlock.  He says we are “careening towards recession.”

But it is not just recession.  It’s an inflationary recession

Better known as stagflation!

Do you own enough gold?

Stocks Coming Unglued

Protect Profits with Gold!

Are you paying attention to stock market values decaying right in front of our eyes?

For those of you who have had a good ride in the stock market during the period that it was levitated by the Federal Reserve’s pumphouse of liquidity, we want to recommend that you prepare for the stagflation developing now and lock in your profits by moving them to gold.  

Here is a sample of informed commentary about the way the stock market’s overextension is playing out.

The title of today’s piece comes from Wolf Richter at “What we’re looking at is how the greatest stock market bubble ever is coming unglued stock by stock, rather than all at once.”

“All these stocks that spiked by 200% or 500% or 1,000% were hyped out the wazoo, often in the social media, and their prices spiked in the shortest time, often multiplying in days. This craze started in March 2020, and peaked in February 2021, and then came unglued.”

Stocks are clearly moving into bear market territory.  Bank of America’s Michael Harnett points out that three out of four Nasdaq stocks and more than half of S&P 500 stocks are already at least 20 percent lower than their 52-week highs.

“Instead of buying the dips, investors should be selling the rips in the stock market as the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates into a bear market.  We believe [the] bull era of central bank excess, Wall Street inflation, [and] globalization [is] ending, and [a] bear era of government intervention, social and political polarization, Main Street inflation, and geopolitical isolationism [is] starting,”

He adds that the bearish fundamentals are exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the prospect of commodity price inflation.  Another red flag is the likelihood of a Fed policy error.  We hardly need to chime in ourselves that Fed policy mistakes are a way of life these days.

And a fundamental reminder from Bill Bonner, Bonner Private Research: 

“The problem with just staying ‘in the market,’ may leave you with a losing position for decades. In the US, after the crash of ’29, it took 26 years for stocks to recover, in inflation-adjusted terms. And in Japan, stocks crashed in 1989; they still have not recovered.”

In that context, we thought we should re-publish this Wall Street Journal chart from a month ago when Meta (Facebook) lost more than $230 billion in market value.

In one day.

The chart details similar share price collapses over the last two years.

Take steps now to lock in stock market profits and breathe easier during the stagflation years ahead.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange specialist about wealth preservation with gold, the world’s enduring money of choice.

One Thing We Do Know

People in Ukraine with gold will be better off than people with Hryvnia!

It is said that the first victim of war is the truth.   The war in Ukraine is no exception.

People in Washington – never the brightest bulbs – have been caught cheering stories that didn’t actually happen… Supposed footage from the fighting that is actually footage from something years ago that happened in another country…. Accounts of heroic deeds that are actually doctored up from old video games… Photos of staged weapons that are really from another place and time. 

You would think politicians would be more careful about being taken in by fake news.

Ukrainian 1000 Hryvnia bills

We, of course, don’t know how things will play out, who will be up and who will be down when the dust settles in Ukraine.  And we don’t mind admitting it.  But because we are specialists in monetary matters, in gold and silver, there is one thing we do know…

People in Ukraine with gold will be better off than people with hryvnia.

What the heck is a hryvnia, you might ask?  Hryvnia is the national currency of Ukraine.  It is an unbacked currency, either printed on paper or created digitally.  In that respect, it is exactly like the US dollar.  There is no fixed redeemability of either the dollar or the hryvnia to some dependable backing like gold.

Some years ago, Senator Marco Rubio tried to put US taxpayers on the hook to guarantee the value of the hryvnia.  Why he would want to do that, especially since no one guarantees the value of our currency, should be a mystery.  After all, Rubio is a US senator.  He represents Americans.  But we suspect the scheme was designed to bail out international banks that had loaned money to Ukraine.  The American people are often victimized that way. 

gold coins

In any case, we think the people in Ukraine should be responsible for the value of their own currency.  They are in charge of their central bank, not you.  They have control over their government’s spending, not you.  They are responsible for doing something about rampant corruption in their government, not you.  If Ukrainians want a valuable and worthy currency, they should do something about it.  We suggest they try gold and silver instead of printed or digitally printed money.

So, to restate what we do know:

We are confident that people in Ukraine who exchanged their hryvnia for gold and silver are better off than those who did not.  Especially since the value of the hryvnia has fallen out of bed since Senator Rubio was pushing his big idea.

From the experience of thousands of years and from around the world, we are also confident that people who exchange their US dollars for gold and silver will be better off for it.  

That is because the Fed can’t just print gold! 

Ukraine, the Dollar, and Gold

But don’t just take it from us…

This blog and commentary are devoted to providing you with information that will help you profit and protect yourself from a decaying monetary and financial environment.

Obviously, we represent your first line of defense: gold and silver.  That, as they say, is our wheelhouse.  It is our expertise.  We point repeatedly to historical precedents for asserting the primacy of precious metals, as well as the unfolding policy decisions that are undermining our money and your prosperity.

Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, it is important for our friends and clients to consider the potential impact of this warfare on the US dollar. 

With a few lines transcribed from his Fox News show on Thursday (2/24/2022) as the Russian air and ground campaign was underway, Tucker Carlson provides this perspective:

In this country, control of the US dollar is the key to our wealth.  Our entire financialized, debt-based economy rests on the unique privilege of issuing the world’s reserve currency.  If the US dollar is ever replaced, we are in legitimate trouble.  Our debt will come due, our government will go bankrupt, and millions of Americans will become poorer immediately.

So, this is the main thing we ought to be worried about and there is a greater risk now than ever before.  Sanctions are an emotionally satisfying way to punish someone like Vladimir Putin who clearly does deserve to be punished.  No one is really against sanctions.  But the question is, do they work?  Clearly, multiple sanctions did not prevent last night’s invasion of Ukraine.  Let’s start there.

At the same time, sanctions give Russia and many other countries across the world a strong incentive to dump the US dollar, which is the means by which we enforce sanctions.  

So last summer for example, in a story that most people didn’t pay enough attention to, Russia, in response to sanctions, completely removed the US dollar’s assets from its sovereign wealth fund, its national wealth fund….

So, we should be watching attacks on the primacy of the US dollar globally every bit as intently as we watch the coverage currently on television of the hot war.  If at the end of this conflict, whenever that is, countries around the world come to see the Chinese yuan as a stronger, more stable currency than the US dollar, then this country will have lost more than we understand.

Tucker Carlson, 2/24/22

Much of this, including Russia de-dollarizing its sovereign wealth fund, we have written about before (see HERE and HERE).  Carlson says that de-dollarization will make millions of Americans poorer.  To avoid being victimized by this inevitable development, let a Republic Monetary Exchange professional help you design a gold and silver portfolio that is right for you.

Are We Next?

Gold and Silver: For When the Government Decides that What’s Yours is Actually Theirs.

The Canadian Truckers’ protest showed, in the words of columnist Eric Margolis, “that less than 100 ZZ Top look-alike truckers could hold Canada to ransom.”

That is a funny line.  But it also showed something far more diabolical.  It showed Big Brother is never far from the surface of even modern, Western governments.

It took Justine Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister who bears an uncanny resemblance to Fidel Castro, no time at all to respond to a peaceful, populist demonstration with all the heavy state artillery he could muster.

Trudeau quickly declared a martial law-like National Emergency on the flimsiest pretext.  After all, in 34 years that power has never before been invoked.  

Manitoba supporters show their support as the convoy passes through winter prairies

According to Trudeau, the protestors held “unacceptable views.”  So now the modern state gets to decide which views are acceptable?

Trudeau further claimed that the truckers “do not represent the views of Canadians.”  So said all the arms of state propaganda.  But they sure represented the votes of all the thousands who turned out in the freezing cold to support them.  Do they count for nothing in the Trudeau calculation?  And they sure as heck represented the people who quickly donated C$10 million to GoFundMe to support the truckers.  

(But then GoFundMe decided to withhold the funds.  There should be a special never-to-be-forgotten place in our memories for GoFundMe.)

The Deputy Prime Minister declared that “emergency” measures empowered the state to suspend the truckers’ insurance, and freeze truckers’ and protestors’ bank accounts without court orders.  Law enforcement began targeting people on the grounds that “they were believed to be involved” in the protests.  It wasn’t long before police on horseback waded into the crowds, one captured on video trampling on an old lady using a walker.

One case involved a single mother who donated $50 to the protestors.  That was the extent of her participation, all entirely legal.  But her ability to provide for her children was kicked to the curb when her bank account was frozen.

The lesson from this experience in Canada is that your ownership of your financial resources is fiction.  The moment it is not convenient for the state, the fiction is exposed.

“If you are involved in this protest, we will actively look to identify you and follow up with financial sanctions and criminal charges,” said Ottawa’s chief of police Steve Bell.

Is this an operating manual for the Biden administration in the days to come?

What happens when our own truckers reach Washington?   

Or when people begin to protest energy prices or Bidenflation?  Or the next Deep State war that makes no sense?  What happens when people decide to drop out of the phony money and crony state game?  When the ruling classes decide to drop one of the Bill of Rights (Second Amendment, we’re looking at you)?  When Washington reneges on its debts or can’t pay Social Security recipients in money of lasting value?     

Of course, the US Constitution does not allow Washington to do the kinds of things that Trudeau and his minions did to our Canadian cousins.  But it has been a long time since anyone in government paid much attention to the Constitution.

For that matter, if the Constitution still prevailed here in the 50 states, gold and silver would still be money as the founders intended.  And we wouldn’t be in this mess of inflation and unpayable debt.  And since Congress hasn’t declared war since World War II, despite the Constitution’s clear language that it must, there wouldn’t have been an endless series of elective regime change wars that have left American buried in %30 trillion in debt.

But for now, it is up to you to protect your own wealth.  Get resources off the grid that can be frozen or nationalized when the government decides what is yours is really theirs.

Call or stop by Republic Monetary Exchange for a private no-obligation consultation.  And learn why gold and silver are the money of free people.

Commodity Prices Ripping Higher!

Take a good look at this chart.

It is the Commodity Research Bureau’s index of global commodity complex prices.  Rather than equity (stocks) or bonds, it represents real things, tangible goods that make the things we consume.  It consists of 19 global commodity prices.  Energy contracts are 39 percent of the index, while agriculture commodity prices are 41 percent, industrial metals represent 13 percent, and precious metals are 7 percent.

Commodity prices are ripping higher!

This is a five-year chart.  You can see the collapse of prices in early 2020, the result of the global economy being widely shut down by the pandemic response.  Prices recovered in 2021, but thanks to unprecedented money printing, the index is rocketing to new highs.

The index is now 40 percent above its 5-year average.  It is up 13.5 percent just since the first of this year.

It reflects global price inflation and the US dollar’s purchasing power.  It means that things we eat, things made from raw materials, and activities that require energy will cost more.  It means virtually everything will cost more. 

What can you do to protect yourself?  People have learned the lessons of these commodity price explosions over and over.  They are not rare historical events.  They are common because all governments given monetary authority will eventually misuse them.  

The lessons learned from Argentina to Zimbabwe, from ancient Rome to modern Europe and the US, and from countless banana republics in between, is to move your money out of the depreciating local currency and into gold.

Don’t wait, because here we go once again!

Best Practices for Gold and Silver Buyers

As if inflation isn’t enough, now war drums are pounding, too.

No wonder more people are thinking about protecting themselves with gold and silver.  No wonder gold and silver are moving up.  After the tremendous run that took gold over $2,000 in August 2020, gold has been mostly consolidating its gains, trading in a narrowing sideways range.

Now it has hit an 8-month high.

At Republic Monetary Exchange, we’re always surprised to learn that some people buy gold and silver from nameless, faceless voices somewhere.  That must take a lot of guts… to send money off to a boiler room 800 number somewhere.

But it seems to happen when gold is showing new strength. Calls from boiler rooms, splashy TV ads, companies that just opened their doors or just got a post office box, emails from people you don’t know, phone calls during dinner.  

We recommend best practices for your protection when you invest in precious metals.  At Republic Monetary Exchange we are the industry leader in best practices for our clients.  

We always make sure to have inventory on hand for your purchases.  Other dealers have made their clients wait for weeks on end to get delivery.  We don’t do that.  We make delivery immediately.   No delays.  No excuses.

Same thing when you need to sell.  We make immediate payment.  

Republic Monetary Exchange Offices in Phoenix, AZ
Republic Monetary Exchange’s Office in Phoenix, AZ

It’s what sets us apart.  Best practices for our clients.  

In fact, for our Arizona clients, we give you delivery right face-to-face.  On the spot.  For others, we ship immediately.  Our signature service includes five-star packaging, fully insured, and expedited shipping.  No delays.  No waiting.

You deal one-on-one at Republic Monetary Exchange with your own personal precious metals professional.

So, if you already know y0u should own gold and silver, if you’ve been buying from someone who knows where, and then waiting and waiting to get your gold, you need to start using best practices from the leader in best practices for gold and silver investors.  

For those who would like to learn more about investing in precious metals for wealth protection and profit, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today. 

Gold Steals the Headlines

Here are some top-of-the-page news alerts on the popular Drudge Report this past week, (including the photo of the smiling but clueless Treasury secretary Janet Yellen:


Janet Yellen is “concerned” about inflation, but she assures us that the Federal Reserve will act in an “appropriate way” to contain inflation.  We wonder why the Fed didn’t act in an appropriate way to keep inflation from exploding to begin with… but who are we to ask?

61% of Americans now living paycheck to paycheck…

That 61 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck is self-explanatory, but the story explains that real wages aren’t keeping up with inflation.  

Mortgage rates soar…

The cost of the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is up well over a percent from a year ago. 

Here comes $7 gas?

Brace yourself for another surge in gas prices, warns a leading energy price tracker.  He says oil could shoot to $150 a barrel.  Well, that’s the sort of thing that happens when the currency loses its purchasing power (and when you go to war with energy producing nations!)

Why runaway inflation has middle class so on edge…

White House economists push back against pressure to blame corporations…

Gold nears all-time high…

Let us provide you the quick digest of each one, in order.

  • Janet Yellen is “concerned” about inflation, but she assures us that the Federal Reserve will act in an “appropriate way” to contain inflation.  We wonder why the Fed didn’t act in an appropriate way to keep inflation from exploding to begin with… but who are we to ask?
  • That 61 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck is self-explanatory, but the story explains that real wages aren’t keeping up with inflation.  
  • The cost of the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is up well over a percent from a year ago. 
  • Brace yourself for another surge in gas prices, warns a leading energy price tracker.  He says oil could shoot to $150 a barrel.  Well, that’s the sort of thing that happens when the currency loses its purchasing power (and when you go to war with energy producing nations!)
  • With prices rising, regular people worry about making ends meet and their financial future.  Go figure.
  • There are fights within the White House about who to blame for inflation and what to do about it.  This is no surprise since nobody there has a clue about the nature of money and prices, much less economics as a whole.
  • Gold has moved higher.  Of course, it has.  After all, the Fed actually printed $4.7 trillion in the last two years!

Now we would have written about each of these bullet points ourselves since that is what we do to keep our friends and clients informed.  But today we’d like to thank the Drudge Report for doing our work for us!

Prices Screaming Higher

Buy gold now because the Fed is about to get even worse!

US wholesale prices are racing higher at a breathtaking rate.

For the month of January, the Producer Price Index was up a full one percent.  For the 12-month period ending in January, the PPI was up 9.7 percent.

From the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. suppliers sharply boosted prices last month, in a sign upward pressure on already high consumer inflation continued to build at the start of the year. The Labor Department on Tuesday said the producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose a seasonally adjusted 1% in January from the prior month, the sharpest rise since May 2021. The gain reflects pandemic-related disruptions from the Omicron variant of Covid-19 at the start of the year and continued strength in consumer demand, economists said. Producer prices rose 9.7% on a 12-month basis, nearly the same as the prior month.

For the same 12-month period consumer prices are up 7.5 percent.  Rising producer (wholesale) prices) inevitably must work their way into consumer prices.  

Note that the above explanation does not deal directly with the Fed’s frantic creation of trillions of digital dollars in the last two years.  To be more precise, from mid-February 2020 until today, mid-February 2022, the Federal Reserve has purchased $4.7 trillion dollars of financial assets, mostly US Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, with money that it simply created digitally.  It is unbacked, irredeemable, fiat money that is not the result of wealth production.  It is simply created with a couple of computer keystrokes.  

It looks like counterfeiting, it walks like counterfeiting, and it quacks like counterfeiting.  But it is legalized counterfeiting.

Gold up 11 of the last 13 days, surging above both its 50-day- and 200-day-moving averages.

While some – ourselves included – are looking at the lunatic money printing and the prospects for another war as the primary forces driving gold today, it is worth noting that the Senate Banking Committee is soon sending to the full Senate for confirmation a slate of Biden nominees for the Federal Reserve Board, including a second term for Jerome Powell as chairman.  

This slate alone is a sufficient reason to doubt the future prospects of the US dollar.  Missing the resurgence of inflation and then pronouncing it “transitory” is the least of their shortcomings.  Among the nominees are those who believe climate change is part of the Fed’s charter.  The Fed can’t maintain stable prices as it is tasked with doing, but it wants to manage the solar system.  Another nominee’s chief academic accomplishment is a research study so riddled with error that she has been accurately described as being “innumerate,” which is basically incapable of arithmetic.  Great.  Put here in charge of the money supply.

But at least it will be a “diverse” Fed.

Buy gold while you can!

The Government’s Inflation Rate vs. the Real Inflation Rate


… and there’s the Real Inflation Rate! Try 15 Percent!

The US government’s official inflation numbers are bad enough.  But what if they also badly understate the real rate of increasing prices?

If the books are cooked, it will have a lot of unhappy consequences.  Among them are programmed benefit increases like COLAs, cost of living adjustments.  Social Security benefits are adjusted each year, increasing payments to offset the destructive effect of inflation on recipients.  

But what if inflation is higher than the official numbers used to calculate those adjustments? 

The government inflation number has been ratcheting higher and higher each month.  But John Williams says the real inflation rate is higher than the Consumer Price Index reports.

Much higher.  Williams says the current consumer price inflation rate is not 7.5 percent.  It’s 15.63 percent.  That means prices are rising at twice the rate the government reports.  It is the higher inflation in 75 years.

Let’s review.  For the twelve months ending last in October, the CPI was reportedly up 6.2 percent.  The next month the annual CPI was 6.8 percent.  One month later, at the end of December, the government reported consumer prices had risen 7 percent.  Now, annual inflation through the end of January is reported to be 7.5 percent

Balderdash, says economist John Williams

 “The quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience….”

“In the early-1990s, political Washington moved to change the nature of the CPI.  The contention was that the CPI overstated inflation (it did not allow substitution of less-expensive hamburger for more-expensive steak).  Both sides of the aisle and the financial media touted the benefits of a “more-accurate” CPI, one that would allow the substitution of goods and services.”

Williams created a tracking service called ShadowStats (Shadow Government Statistics, here) to use the calculaton basis that prevailed before political forces began altering the research away from being a reliable measure of the cost of living and began allowing substitutions.  

It is always wise to be wary of government numbers.  It reminds me of the old line that there are “lies, damned lies, and government statistics.”

But whether the real inflation rate is 7.5 percent or 15 percent, the purchasing power of the US dollar is inarguably being debauched by the central bank.  And we can all agree that you must take steps to protect your wealth, your family, and yourself with gold and silver.  Because government policy is not going to protect you.

Speak with a Republic Monetary precious metals specialist today, and create a solid plan for wealth preservation.

Inflation Keeps on Climbing

It’s not a surprise to Republic Monetary Exchange friends and clients!

The inflation rate keeps powering higher and higher.  

Consumer prices have climbed 7.5 percent over the last 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That is the most in 40 years.

Inflation ran even hotter than that in the mountain states, including Arizona where Republic Monetary Exchange is headquartered and where many of our clients live.  Mountain states inflation came in at 9 percent.

Let us backtrack a bit.  A year ago, the Federal Reserve showed no concern at all about inflation, while we warned there would be severe price consequences to the Fed’s money printing spree.  When inflation’s presence became undeniable, the Fed insisted it would be transitory.

It has not been transitory.  Instead, it has kept climbing into the banana republic danger zone.  

At the end of October, the annual inflation rate was 6.2 percent.

By the end of November, we were looking at annual inflation of 6.8 percent.

And it just kept climbing.

At the end of last year, 12-month inflation has risen to 7 percent.

Now, with the numbers in for January, the 12-month inflation rate has climbed to 7.5 percent.  

What this means it that since January 1, 2000, the US dollar has lost 40 percent of its purchasing power.  Gold, on the other hand, began the new millennium at about $280.  It has gained some 550 percent while the dollar lost 40 percent of its purchasing power.  That is the sort of thing to be expected with the Fed printing dollar by the trillions.

You did not need to hear a government report to know that inflation is running red hot.  It is the talk of people everywhere we go these days.  The official numbers are notoriously sketchy, and we believe they understate real inflation.  We cannot say what the official numbers will be next month.  They can come in higher or lower at any time.

But we can tell you that the purchasing power of the dollar will be even lower next month than it is right now.

And that is why you need to protect yourself from the destruction of the US dollar by owning gold and silver. Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today to create a plan to protect your wealth and your family.

American debt

Inflating the Debt Away

If you’re like the rest of us, you’re probably hearing more and more complaints about rising prices.

Well, get used to it.  

Washington could have done the right thing, but it never does.  Politicians are too busy buying votes with giveaways and thanking lobbyists for contributions with crony legislation.  

It’s been going on for a long time, and now – just days ago – the US national debt reached the unthinkable level of $30 trillion!

Where is this debt crisis headed?  Here’s a guess from the Peterson Foundation, one that we think is a quite modest projection of future debt.  That is because Washington is liable to usher in a recession in the next few years.  In a recession, government revenues fall, while government social spending rises.  

And the debt widens.

Our recent history is clear.  As the debt widens, the Federal Reserve steps in to make up much of the shortfall with a gusher of printed money.  It attempts to inflate the debt away.

Such inflation extremes are the ruination of countless governments and the source of incalculable suffering by the people.

Inflation at ten percent devalues a $30 trillion government debt by $3 trillion a year.  Except for an outright default, that is the only way out for Washington.  

If you would like to learn about the calamity that results when governments try to inflate their debt away, read Jim Clark’s new book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: The American Gold Story.  

It is vital that you have this information.  Stop by Republic Monetary Exchange on Camelback just east of 40th Street and we’ll be happy to give you a copy.  No cost.  No obligation.  

We just urge you to inform yourself before it is too late.

The Full-Tilt Crypto Boogie, Part II

Own gold (because the Fed never stops scheming!)

It has been a while since we updated you on the Federal Reserve’s leading-edge plan to control the people, and increase their dependency on Washington.

But we learn that the Fed is still moving ahead on what we had dubbed “The Full-Tilt Crypto-Boogie”.

There is no better name for the Fed’s own digital-crypto-central-bank-block-chain-wallet-Fed-coin-currency.  

The Fed has done such an admirable job managing the existing US dollar, that now it is ready for bigger and better things: full-spectrum dominance of every commercial and monetary transaction in America.

It will give Washington prior restraint, complete approval, total veto power, punitive oversight, and unlimited surveillance of everything. 

We repeat …EVERYTHING!

It amounts to nothing less than a Chinese-style social credit system.  Say something, read something, do something, associate with someone the State doesn’t approve of and find yourself unable to function in modern life:  unable to buy or sell, have a bank account or credit, own property, drive, fly, be insured, access medical care… and so on.

The Fed has published a new report titled “Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation.”  We aren’t encouraged to note the first bullet point in its introduction explains that the Fed “conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.”

Stable prices?  How has that been working out for us?

Inside the report, you will discover the brazen acts of public relations spin.  The Fed appears to have adopted a term being used by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (we call that the plunge protection team), along with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and others for new central bank digital currencies tied to the dollar.

They are calling it…

Wait for it…

Okay.  They are calling it “Stablecoin.” 

Ha, ha, ha!

The Fed urges Congress to get ahead of the stablecoin curve for now.  At the same time, it is seeking public comment about the ultimate structure of its central bank digital currency, the full-tilt crypto-boogie.

We will revisit the issue before long to illustrate in some detail the kind of authoritarian and socialist control its latest monetary scheme will vest in the central bank.

But for now, it is about the best damn reason that we have ever seen to buy more gold and silver!

Things Happen Fast in the Financial World

We’re writing this post on Thursday (2/3/22), the day Facebook, or more properly its parent company Meta Platforms, lost more than $230 billion in market value.

In one day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 518 points, while the Nasdaq market was down 538 points, or 3.7 percent. 

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a jumbo-size train wreck like this. Here’s a Wall Street Journal graphic detailing similar collapses over the last two years.

As you can see, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla have been slammed this way before.  

These things happen because the markets have been in a speculative fury while the Federal Reserve has been pumping trillions of dollars to Wall Street.  Think about this.  Last time we saw the numbers broken out, just a few months ago, 21 percent of the capitalization of the S&P500 was concentrated in these five high-flyers: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google.  

It has driven those stocks to the moon, but all that Fed money sloshing around still must spill over elsewhere, and because it is cheap and easy-to-come-by for the Fed’s cronies, it has funded all kinds of things at levels that have no rational economic underpinnings.  Things like crazy crypto currencies (have you ever heard of Fonziecoin, PotCoin, or Pizzacoin?).  And equally crazy NFTs, non-fungible tokens.  Like the recordings of rude body sounds.

This is the age of stupid money.  But it is not the first time.  In his play Pericles, Shakespeare holds up a famine in Tarsus, which had been proceeded by an inflation characterized by rank excesses.

One former Federal Reserve official, Richard Fisher, asked a couple of years ago what the markets will do when the Fed stops giving them “monetary cocaine.”

For some reason we think about Rudyard Kipling’s line, “If you can keep your head while all about you are losing theirs…”

We’ll adapt it and finish it for our age of wanton currency destruction.

If you can keep your head while all about you are losing theirs, and during some of the most ridiculous financial behavior ever seen, then surely you will invest in gold… And keep not just your head, but your wealth, too.

Just Look at the National Debt!

Wow! $30 Trillion! That’s a Surefire Calamity!

The US national debt just set a new world indoor record.  The official, on-the-books national debt reached $30 trillion on January 30.  

The national debt has grown by almost $7 trillion in the last two years.  Oh, brave new world!  That’s more than $90,000 per American or $360,000 for a family of four.

If the dollar were a reliable unit of accounting, the debt would be unpayable.  But since the dollar is not a reliable unit of accounting, the debt can be paid.  All it takes is for the dollar to be inflated into near worthlessness.  It may seem like that would take a lot of money printing, but it is not a big challenge for the monetary authority, the Federal Reserve.  It has a lot of experience in currency debauchment.   Since 1913 it has destroyed 97 percent of the dollar’s purchasing power.  Since the money is all “printed” digitally these days, it takes no time at all.  And they don’t have to fool around with all the mess of paper and ink!

So, printing the money into near worthlessness works for Washington and the monetary authority.  It just doesn’t work well for you if your savings and retirement are all denominated in dollars.  It doesn’t do much for American prosperity either.

Financial blogger Wolf Richter ( provides this 10-year chart of the national debt.  As you can see, he labels where we go from here as “Debt out the Wazoo!”

That is a good description!

Note all the flat spots labeled “debt ceiling” where the debt appears to stop growing.  That is another Washington flim-flam.  The spending goes right on as usual, but they use accounting gimmicks to pretend that the debt isn’t growing.

As Richter says, “Each time after a Debt Ceiling charade is resolved in Congress, the administration is then free to borrow the money that Congress told it to spend, and the US national debt spikes to make up for the flat spots. The one thing the Debt Ceiling never does is slow down the growth of the US national debt.”

We can’t stop this government train racing to calamity.  It was inevitable that it would come to an unhappy end on the day the Federal Reserve was created.  But you can make sure your own personal wealth doesn’t crack up in the process by preserving it in real money:  gold and silver.

If you would like to know more, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.  

Oh, and one more thing.  $30 trillion is only part of the US national debt.  It is the part that shows.  The hidden debt that no one likes to talk about much is around $164 trillion.  That’s five and a half times the size of the visible debt.

Gold Bars and Nuggets

Notes and Nuggets About Gold, the Fed, and the Economy

Raising the gold price target, more debt, and a confused Fed!

Goldman Sachs:

“In our view, this combination of slower growth and higher inflation should generate investment demand for gold, which we consider to be a defensive inflation hedge. In addition, we expect continued growth in [emerging market] dollar-wealth and a rebound in consumer and central bank demand for gold. As such, we are raising our 12-month gold target to $2150 an ounce from $2000 an ounce.” 

From CNS News:

When President Joe Biden was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021, the federal government’s debt stood at $27,751,896,236,414.77.

When his first year in office ended on Jan. 20, 2022, it stood at $29,867,021,509,573.92.

That means that during Biden’s first 12 months in office, the federal debt grew by more than $2 trillion — or $2,115,125,273,159.15 to be exact.

US Mint 2021 Annual Report:

Demand for gold bullion ounces remained strong in FY 2021 compared to FY 2020. Sales increased by 580.0 thousand ounces (67.4 percent) to 1,440.0 thousand ounces, with a 70.5 percent increase in American Eagle gold bullion coin ounces sold and a 57.1 percent increase in American Buffalo gold bullion coin ounces sold…

Silver bullion ounces sold increased 12,202.0 thousand ounces (51.3 percent) to 35,999.0 thousand ounces in FY 2021, with a 62.4 percent increase in American Eagle silver bullion coin ounces sold…. 

Steven Roach, Australian Financial Review:

The current upsurge in inflation is not transitory or to be dismissed as an outgrowth of idiosyncratic COVID-19-related developments. It is widespread, persistent, and reinforced by wage pressures stemming from an unprecedentedly sharp tightening of the US labor market.

By now, it is passé to warn that the Fed is “behind the curve.”

In fact, the Fed is so far behind that it can’t even see the curve… 

In the meantime, financial markets are in for a very rude awakening.

The Wall Street Journal:


China’s 2021 gold consumption rose by over a third from the previous year, as its economy rebounded from the coronavirus impact, the China Gold Association said on Thursday. [Led by gold jewelry, 2021 gold consumption rose to 1,120.9 tons versus 820.9 tons in 2020.]  

Michael Shedlock:

Jerome Powell and the Fed are delusional. To state that asset bubbles are only “somewhat elevated” shows the degree of delusion. 

This is undoubtedly the biggest financial bubble in history. Consumers appear to be in good shape only because of the asset bubbles

When Cash is Nothing But Trash

But gold is a different story!

It doesn’t matter whether the government’s unbacked, fiat, made-up money is printed or a mere digital bookkeeping entry, it will always end up worthless.

It has happened in more times and places than we can recount.  The latest is in Venezuela where the money ends up as roadside garbage. This is what hyperinflation in Venezuela looks like.

But don’t take it from us.  Have a look yourself:

You will note, by the way, that nobody ever throws their gold and silver away along the side of the road.  

The last time we wrote about Venezuela’s currency calamity HERE, we noted that faced with a worthless currency, in the mining areas of the country, gold was beginning to reassert itself as a reliable unit of value.  Miners pay workers in bits of gold.  They in turn break off flakes of gold to pay for lodging, in bars, and even for haircuts.

One of the great ironies of the story is that they are using the worthless paper currency, the government’s bolivars, to wrap paper to wrap up and protect the bits, flakes, and nuggets of gold they carry in their pockets and purses.  

So, I guess paper money isn’t entirely useless!  

If your finances, your savings, and your retirement funds are all in unbacked, fiat, made-up digital or paper currency, we recommend you let the fact that we are experiencing the highest US inflation in 40 years spur you to take steps to protect yourself and your family.

The first step is to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional.  There is no charge or obligation.  Learn how to protect your hard-earned wealth from the common fate of funny money everywhere.

Our Shortest Post Ever

But read every word!

We’re busy watching the carnage in the stock market this week as gold works its way higher, just as we have written about so many times.  

So today we want to share with you a tweet from Marc-André Fongern (@Fongern_FX), a British foreign exchange analyst.  It is a short and succinct summation of the Federal Reserve’s accomplishments, and we don’t want to dilute its impact with any unnecessary verbiage.

So here it is:

Jeremy Granthan has Turned Apocalyptic on the Stock Market!

We think it is a good time to park your wealth – at least the part of your wealth you want to hold on to – in gold and silver.

We have detailed the reasons in these posts and invite our friends and readers to review what we have been writing.  Those reasons have to do with things like the debt and deficits, spending and taxation, fiat money and the Fed, and a world that is growing increasingly dangerous and disconnected from reality.

Now we would like to share Jeremy Grantham’s concerns about the stock market bubble.

Grantham is co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. Wikipedia says that “Grantham has built much of his investing reputation over his long career by claiming to identify speculative market ‘bubbles’ as they were unfolding.”

We last wrote about him in September when he said that Fed liquidity and the Biden stimulus money are “violating a cardinal rule.”  They are “bubbling” stocks, bonds, and real estate all at the same time.

He told Reuters recently that “this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It’s as obvious as the nose on your face”

Grantham thought in the fall the investors might have a little more time – months not years – to take their profits and head to safety.  “A bust might take a few more months,” he said then, “and, in fact, I hope it does, because it will give us the opportunity to warn more people.”

Now those months have passed and it does not sound like Grantham thinks it is wise to wait any longer.

Grantham’s new client advisory was published on Thursday (1/20/22).  Note the title: “LET THE WILD RUMPUS BEGIN!”  The subtitle is just as revealing: “Approaching the End of) The First U.S. Bubble Extravaganza: Housing, Equities, Bonds, and Commodities.”

Grantham begins by describing “superbubbles” of the past including “in the U.S. in 1929 and 2000 and in Japan in 1989. There were also superbubbles in housing in the U.S. in 2006 and Japan in 1989. All five of these superbubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average.”

“Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years.”

One of the characteristics of the bubbles gone by is that end with blow-off tops.  Grantham describes that as “an accelerating rate of stock price growth to two or three times the average of the preceding bull market.” He provides these graphs as examples:

As we have said before, when the bubbles pop, there will be a stampede to the safe havens of gold and silver.  We recommend you take advantage of today’s prices and beat the rush.

Learn more by speaking with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional.

Sound Money Measures to Advance in 2022

More states are expected to recognize Constitutional money as, well, Constitutional money in 2022.

That is according to the Sound Money Defense League, an organization that tracks state-level sound money – gold and silver — legislation across the United States. 2021 was a good year for advancing the interests of gold and silver, says the League; 2022 could be even better.

Imagine the absurdity of the following situation.  You ask the bank to give you five twenty-dollar bills in exchange for a one-hundred-dollar bill.  The teller does so, but only after deducting sales tax, for example, 8.6 percent which is the prevailing sales tax rate in Phoenix, Arizona.  

In that case, the bank would take your $100 bill and give you $91.40.

As we have discussed often, money cannot function in such an environment.  Without getting too technical a functional currency cannot have a bid-ask spread.  And whether tax-hungry officials like it or not, the US Constitution provides for gold and silver to serve as money.

There is no sales tax on precious metal coins and bullion in Arizona.  The formal language of this exemption is found in Arizona Revised Statutes 42-5061.

Issuers of fiat currencies are always hostile to gold and must suppress it at the first hint of a challenge.  After all, the money printing flim-flam works by the State appropriating some of the value of the currency.  If people are wise to the game and refuse to hold the State’s currency, there is no one to fleece.  

That is why tax policy is hostile to gold and silver.  They represent superior competitors to dollars that roll right off the digital printing press by the trillions with nothing more than a computer keystroke.  

As we are becoming fond of saying, they cannot print gold and silver!  

In any case, more states are lining up to remove sales taxes on gold and silver, while other states are taking steps to eliminate capital gains taxes.

According to the Sound Money Defense League:

More than a half dozen states are now considering legislation that rolls back discriminatory taxes and regulations on the sale, use, and purchase of gold and silver.

To date, 42 states have removed some or all taxes from the purchase of gold and silver. And there are new bills pending now in five of the eight remaining states, i.e., Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Hawaii, and New Jersey.

The problem of unsound money cannot be entirely eliminated by the legislative action of individual states. 

The League concludes that: 

The root of the problem is the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and Congress who have fully embraced fiat money and abandoned monetary restraint.

With the Consumer Price Index running at its highest rate in 40 years, inflation is becoming the most pressing economic issue of our time.

While federal policymakers are exacerbating the problem, some states are thankfully stepping up to give their citizens some tools to protect themselves.


Bullish Figures for Gold!

It has been a while since we have focused on the price charts, but this would be a good time.  On Tuesday, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.6 percent for its lowest close since October, while the Dow dropped 540 points on the day.  

Gold has been trading mostly sideways this year, and now has held over $1,800 an ounce for more than a week.

We note as well that gold is trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, both of which are moving higher as well.

Because this move defies the conventional wisdom, with the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates several times this year and with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing higher as well (and also trading over its 50- and 200-day moving averages}, we consider this picture for gold especially bullish.

Here is a five-year chart of oil prices (West Texas Intermediate Crude).

Oil has marched determinedly higher since its lockdown low nineteen months ago.  It is now trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.  That may be an indicator as well of an environment bullish for gold.   It is also likely that oil prices are firming in anticipation of armed conflict.  The standoff over Ukraine grows more intense with each passing week.  Any such conflict, needless to say, is hyper-bullish for gold. 

Finally, just a remark about our impression of conditions in America in January 2022.  Store shelves are sporadically empty, retailers’ product inventories appear to be narrowing, many doctor’s offices are acutely understaffed, and emergency room waiting times appear to be growing.  With inflation at seven percent and wholesale prices rising at almost ten percent annually, we think it fair to judge that the monetary system is in crisis.  Thus, we must repeat the time-worn observation that when the monetary system goes, everything goes.

Americans Don’t Like Bidenflation

Wholesale Prices Jump Nearly 10%!

It is clear that the American people are not pleased with President Biden and the price inflation that is slamming them at the gas pump and in grocery stores.

Here is a depiction:

Now there is even more for them to be unhappy about.  Hard on the heels of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that consumer prices rose seven percent in 2021, comes the next report that shows producer (wholesale) prices are rising even faster.  For the entire year 2021, the Producer Price Index is up 9.7 percent. 

With inflation continuing to surge we suggest our friends and client review their portfolios to make sure they are sufficiently invested in gold and silver for the Bidenflation age of currency depreciation.  Speak with your Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist and get an inflation checkup today!

Inflation Just Keeps Coming

Comrade Lenin would have been proud!

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at the confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.

– John Maynard Keynes

This Bidenflation has gone way too far!

The Labor Department reports that the consumer-price index, said to measure what consumers pay for goods and services, was up 7 percent in December from the same month a year ago.  

That is the highest inflation rate since 1982.  A CNN anchor even said, “Yikes!”

President Biden tweeted that, “inflation numbers show a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month. We are making progress in slowing the rate of price increases.”

Having tracked the numbers ourselves, we are at a loss to understand where a meaningful reduction is to be found.  It may be he is trying to lipstick the Biden Inflation pig by referring to month-to-month changes, but “headline inflation” traditionally refers to the 12-month rate, which is now 7 percent.  

Through November the 12-month CPI rate came in up 6.8 percent, so it just keeps climbing no matter what POTUS says.  

In fact, it is the third straight month in which the 12-month inflation rate was more than 6 percent and the highest of the three months. 

Meanwhile, real hourly wages accounting for the impact of inflation, continue to come in well below the rising cost of living.  And that is the formula for wiping out the middle class.

Or as Lenin is thought to have said, “The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.”

Watch out ahead!  The Biden Brigade is headed straight for the millstones!  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional today and create a sensible plan to protect and preserve your wealth.

Failing Money

There probably are not a lot of places in the real world where one can massively, spectacularly mal-perform – we’re talking world-class failure – and keep a coveted position as the head of an enterprise.

Football coaches with losing records get fired.  Movie directors with a string of failures do not often get invited back to sit in the director’s chair.  Salespeople who do not meet quotas… pilots who land at the wrong airport… auto mechanics who cannot make cars run… All these would soon find themselves in professional jeopardy.

Public policy positions and government are conspicuous exceptions to normal accountability.

Confirmation hearings this month for Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell have us wondering about this.  After a badly bungled first term, President Biden has nominated Powell to serve another four years.

Readers of this blog do not need a lengthy recitation of Powell’s failures and monetary mishaps.  But even those who pay no attention to monetary policy, investments, or America’s economic challenges are liable to be aware of Powell’s spectacular failure to foresee and manage inflation’s debilitating reemergence in 2021.

Powell may have been advised that it was a good opening to announce to the Senate on the first day of his hearings that “the Fed works for all Americans.”  But it is only further evidence of his disconnectedness.

That is because the wealth gap is visible to just about everyone now.  Fed policy has so aggressively favored the wealthy that Bill Gates and Warren Buffett and their “class” mates have done exceptionally well.

Not so much your typical, average American.  Their incomes are not keeping up with the cost of living.  They and their “class” mates are falling further and further behind.  


Over the past two years, median income fell 3% while the cost of living rose nearly 7 percent, due, in part, to rising housing and medical costs….

The average U.S. household with debt now owes $155,622, or more than $15 trillion altogether, including debt from credit cards, mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans and other household obligations — up 6.2% from a year ago. 

So, things are not working out too well under Mr. Powell’s watch.  But, like so many in government, he will be allowed to “fail up” and will be confirmed.  

By now Americans should begin to suspect that it is the monetary system itself that is failing, the handiwork of the issuers of made-up money.  For that is what inflation is: the failure at one rate or another of the money itself.

We do not think Powell should be reconfirmed.  We do not think incompetence should be rewarded.  But in the long run, it won’t matter much if he is.

The only real protection from central banking failures is a good portfolio of gold and silver.

Stock Market Warning

Fed Policy Reversal May Pull the Plug

The Federal Reserve is starting to act like the pinball in an old-fashioned arcade game.  It is bouncing off everything, reversing policies, and changing directions at a frenzied rate.

Ding! Ding! Ding!!!

Surprised and discredited by its own cluelessness about surging inflation, the Fed is now going to react with fresh interventions in the interest rate markets, interventions that promise vulnerability for stock markets.

The recent release of the minutes of its December policy meeting, the Wall Street Journal wrote,  showed “officials believed that rising inflation and a very tight labor market could call for lifting short-term rates ‘sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated.’

Stock prices have been elevated to unsustainable levels by decades of Fed interest rates manipulation.  So with the coming policy changes, we think it is time to issue a warning about stocks now trading at nosebleed altitudes.

The following chart shows the yield (in red) on US 10-year Treasury notes since the double-digit interest rate levels in the early 1980s.  The rise of the Wilshire 5000 stock index is shown in blue.  It is not a mere coincidence that lower rates have enabled higher stock prices throughout the era.

But now the worm is about to turn.  The Fed’s contrived interest rates are generating consumer price inflation – and bubbles just about everywhere, so the Fed has signaled a tighter monetary policy and higher rates beginning this year.

We believe it would be wise to take stock profits now and move to gold and silver as shelter from the financial storm to come from the policy changes.

We are not alone in spying storm clouds on the stock market horizon.  Here is Bill Bonner, from the Bonner Private Wealth Substack newsletter:

Taken as a whole, if the stock market were to go back to normal range, about $20 -$30 trillion would go away. That’s based on the historic mean of Warren Buffett’s famous market-cap to-GDP indicator, which is 86%. In other words, with GDP around $23.2 trillion today, stocks would be worth around $29 trillion. The total market cap of the Wilshire 5,000—the broadest measure of US stocks—hit $48.7 trillion earlier this week.

You do the math. Or we’ll do it for you. Stocks would lose around $28.8 trillion if they declined from 211% of GDP to 86% of GDP. Give or take a couple of trillion, given how markets tend to overcorrect.

How much liquidity would you have then?

Not much.

Bill Bonner

Watch for gold to be the beneficiary of a scramble for real liquidity when the stock market begins to crack.  That’s because it will take a lot of unsound financial institutions down with it.  And speaking of Warren Buffett, we never tire of repeating his observation that you don’t know who has been swimming naked until the tide goes out!

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

American Gold Eagle Coin Demand Surged in 2021

A Record Year for Global Demand!

With inflation’s roaring return, investors purchased US American Eagles gold coins like hotcakes in 2021.  

The US Mint reports sales of 1,252,500 ounces in one ounce and other gold Eagle denominations last year.  That is the most since 2009 and represents a 48.4 percent increase from 2020 sales.  

The biggest sales month in 2021 was January with 220,000 ounces of gold Eagles sold, according to the Mint.

The Mint reports that American Buffalo gold coins in 2021 recorded their highest sales total since the coins were introduced in 2006.  Gold Buffalo sales reached 350,500 ounces.  

While gold coin sales climbed to highs not seen in over a decade, silver coins fell short. Total sales of US American Eagle silver coins reached 28,275,000 in 2021.  That was off 6 percent from 2020 sales of 30 million ounces.  

Meanwhile, the Silver Institute reported in December that 2021 would set a record for global silver demand.  It projected year-end total demand of 1.029 billion ounces.  That would be the first time silver demand has exceeded a billion ounces since 2015.   

According to the Institute, “Physical investment in 2021 is forecast to increase by 32 percent, or 64 million ounces, year-on-year to a six-year high of 263 million ounces.  The strength will be driven by the United States and India.  Additionally, on top of solid gains last year, U.S. coin and bar demand was expected to surpass 100 million ounces for the first time since 2015.

Powered by a 13 percent increase in photovoltaic demand to more than 110 million ounces, industrial silver demand was projected to reach a new high of 524 million ounces in 2021. 

With pandemic shutdowns coming to an end at mining operations around the world, 2021 mined silver production was expected to rise by 6 percent to 829 million ounces.  

The Silver Institute’s year-end report forecast a modest 2021 physical silver deficit of 7 million ounces, the first deficit since 2015.

Five Things You Should Know Heading into 2022

An important gold price forecast, top-heavy stock market action, and an important book waiting for you…  Along with our best wishes for your prosperity in 2022, here are five things we want to share with you at the beginning of this New Year.


Investors will stampede to precious metals in 2022 for protection from a sketchy stock market and inflation.  That’s the forecast from Brian Wien.  He’s the Vice Chairman of Blackstone, the giant investment management firm that runs almost three-quarters of a trillion dollars.  

Wien expects gold to surge 20 percent this year, putting it at a new all-time high of more than $2,160 an ounce.

He even says, “Gold reclaims its title as a haven for newly minted billionaires” in 2022.


Speaking of the stock market, things are getting dangerously concentrated.  Veteran stock analyst David Rosenberg writes a word to the wise: “I see in today’s Financial Times a factoid showing that one–third of the stocks in the NASDAQ are down over 50 percent from their 200–day moving averages (!).  Since April, five stocks (Microsoft, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Tesla and Apple) have accounted for over half of the S&P 500’s total return. In fact, we haven’t seen market concentration this acute since 1969, never mind 1999. We know what history reveals in the aftermath of such a narrowly based (and overvalued) excess.”


The US national debt finished the year at $29.617 trillion.  It grew $1.87 trillion in 2021.  

One word:  Wow!


The US dollar’s share of global currency reserves continues to erode.  In the third quarter, the dollar share fell to 59.15 percent.  The people may not know how the money-printing games devalue their money, but the central bankers of the world know and are lightening their dollar positions even as many began to build their gold reserves.


Skyrocketing prices, massive new spending programs, debt ceiling puppet shows, money printing, debt up the wazoo!

How did we get here?  Where is all this headed?  

You’ll find the answers to those questions and more in my book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: The American Gold Story!

Just stop by Republic Monetary Exchange and let us give you a copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE!

No cost.  No obligation.

You’ll learn exactly why the Founders insisted on gold and silver and even wrote them into the Constitution.  Wait until you read about the time the government stole the people’s gold.  It is one of the great swindles of all time!  

Where are we today and how does it all end?  REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE covers that, too, and explains why gold and silver are your best protection from the monetary imbecility and ruination of our time.

We have a free copy waiting for you.

Ten Things That WON’T Happen in 2022!

Predictions for the New Year that WON’T Happen:

Below are our predictions for the New Year.  Read all ten 2022 predictions and at the end, you’ll discover a little surprise about our list!


The Federal Reserve won’t stop managing the monetary system to benefit the banks that created it to serve their interests in the first place.


Foreign central banks won’t increase their dollar holdings, although they will increase their gold holdings.


Congress won’t reduce federal spending; it won’t stop creating trillion-dollar deficits, and it won’t make a serious attempt to reduce the $29.3 trillion debt.  (This prediction is probably a little bit unfair since Washington already raised the debt ceiling in the middle of December to almost $31 trillion, so we sort of knew!)


The Washington establishment won’t hold most of its members to the same legal standards that it applies to ordinary people.


Washington Republicans and Democrats won’t stop trying to divide the people to win elections.  They will, however, concentrate their attention on smaller divisive issues while the fundamental issues of America’s freedom and prosperity go unaddressed.  


The establishment’s lapdog press won’t bother to report accurately on the fate of the dollar.  Nor will their reporting on gold be accurate.


The establishment lapdog press won’t blame the nation’s monetary problems on the Federal Reserve and the nation’s money manipulators.  It will blame the people instead.   


While Washington may commission a study, launch a new bureau, or even appoint a bureaucrat, nothing meaningful will be done about the declining lifespan of the American people. 


Monetary and fiscal policy won’t stop shrinking the American middle class.


In a crisis, you won’t see people standing in line to exchange their gold for paper money like dollars.  It’s always the other way around.

Now here is the surprise.  

These are the exact same predictions we made last year, at the beginning of 2021.  And the year before that, at the beginning of 2020.  And at the beginning of 2019!  

Well, actually, they aren’t exactly the same.  As the debt continues to climb, we have to make a change every year to number 8.   This proves the point of the prediction, that Washington won’t stop creating trillion-dollar deficits!

Because these predictions have worked out so well, we dusted them off to re-issue them for 2022.  How accurate do you think these predictions will be when we look back on the next year?  

In the meantime, all we can say is buy gold, and have a Happy and Prosperous New Year!

This is What They Said About Gold

More things said about gold, silver and sound economics worth remembering in 2022!

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

– Ludwig von Mises

Gold is a hedge on government authorities making poor economic choices. Inflation is usually the result of those poor decisions, but people confuse cause and effect here. Gold is a hedge on policy makers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.

– Jared Dillian

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

– Ernest Hemingway, Notes on the Next War: A Serious Topical Letter

I think there is a question mark over the durability of any power that relies as heavily as the United States on importing capital and borrowing from abroad.

—Niall Ferguson  

Fiat money will be a passing fad in the long-term history of money.

—Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

[Government debt] allows for present consumption, while shuffling the bill off to future generations.  Normal, healthy people try to leave something for their children and grandchildren.  The Framers of the Constitution wrote that their aim was to “secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity,” for those to come.  But a perverse generation burdens little children who have no say-so in the matter with debt that they must bear all their lives at the expense of their own prosperity.

– JIm Clark

Governments lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie. Gold tells the truth. 

— Lord Rees Mogg

We live in a technological golden age but in a monetary and fiscal dark age. While physicists discover the so-called God particle, governments print and borrow by the trillions. Science and technology may hurtle forward, but money and banking race backward.

James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

You can’t keep printing trillions of dollars without getting serious inflation. There’s no getting around it

The people making these decisions know that perfectly well. But thats the secret: They want inflation. In fact, they need inflation. Why? Because they’ve gotten rich from debt. That’s the real economy. Leverage is their entire business model. So for the finance class, inflation is the only way out of all that debt. When money is worthless, you owe less. Meanwhile, hard assets — like upscale real estate on Martha’s Vineyard — will be worth more.

So inflation may crush you, but it will make the people making the decisions richer. Everyone else — regular wage earners, people living on fixed income, every middle-class retiree in the country,  anyone who bothered to live like a responsible person and save money —  will be in serious trouble when inflation arrives. 

That’s not speculation. It’s coming, and anyone who’s paying attention knows it’s coming.

Tucker Carlson, Fox News

The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice.

— Henry Hazlitt

The Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules. 

– Attributed to a 1967 Wizard of Id comic strip

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.

 — Alan Greenspan

Good money is coined freedom.

  — Swiss proverb

The Fed took a dollar and eliminated 98% of its purchasing power and they’re doing that more rapidly than ever but it just hasn’t been fully discounted. When it is, gold is going to be much, much higher.

– Ron Paul

gold and silver portfolio

Things Worth Remembering About Gold and Silver

Here are a few observations about gold and silver that we have been collecting to share with out friends and clients!

People are frustrated with the economy, because they worry about how everything is getting much more expensive, and they’re blaming the government and politicians because that’s what they’re being asked about, and they’re not blaming the Fed, because the polls never ask about the Fed, and because many people don’t even understand what the Fed does and how it does it.”

– Wolf Richter

Gold and silver, like other commodities, have an intrinsic value, which is not arbitrary, but is dependent on their scarcity, the quantity of labor bestowed in procuring them, and the value of the capital employed in the mines which produce them.

— David Ricardo
British political economist (1772-1823)

A U.S. dollar is an I.O.U. from the Federal Reserve Bank. It’s not backed by gold or silver. It’s a promissory note that doesn’t actually promise anything. 

— P.J. O’Rourke

To some it may appear melodramatic to announce that we are at a monetary endgame.  But it is clear-eyed realism that follows from the historical precedents.  And from the hard accounting.

— Jim Clark

Ask anyone in Germany what they associate with gold and, more often than not, they will say that it is synonymous with enduring value and economic prosperity. Ask us at the Bundesbank what our gold holdings mean for us and we will tell you that, first and foremost, they make up a very large share of Germany’s reserve assets … [and they] are a major anchor underpinning confidence in the intrinsic value of the Bundesbank’s balance sheet.”

— Jens Wiedmann
President, Bundesbank

I grew up in a purely urban family. We had no relatives in the country. I’m born in 1944. When I was a baby, my mother could only buy food because she still had some gold coins. Without gold, I would have starved. She always told me that. Therefore, this generation already has a certain gold affinity. In extreme times of crisis, this is one of the few things left to be accepted. Gold was the only thing left to the people of the city at that time. Before the silver cutlery was also traded at the farmer.

— Ewald Nowotny
Former European Central Bank governor

Gold is an investment in monetary disorder, which is what we have.

— James Grant

The gold standard makes the determination of money’s purchasing power independent of the changing ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.

— Ludwig von Mises

With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.

— F. A. Hayek

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: “Account Overdrawn.”

 — Ayn Rand

Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.

Alan Greenspan

This Special Time of Year

This time of year, with holiday gatherings and celebrations, many of our thoughts center on family.    

For wealth protection, from generation to generation, nothing endures like gold.  In fact, someone called gold and silver “the superheroes of wealth preservation.”

Gold is one of the least reactive chemical elements;  it does not tarnish or rust.  It is handy to think of that as a metaphor for the fact that gold’s core value is impervious to corruption by the actions of its issuer.  The value of an ounce of gold is not dependent on whose picture or name is inscribed on it.  Nor does it depend on any government; governments come and go, but the value of gold persists.

If you had your choice of putting some government’s paper money in a box under the Christmas tree, or gold, to pass along to your children and grandchildren, you would be wise to choose gold.  This is especially true today, now that the Biden inflation brigade has unleased the highest inflation in 40 years and has even raised the debt ceiling to accommodate its endless spending.

Gold ownership has traditionally been prized as a means of passing wealth along in families, indiscreet, private ways.  

It is the only financial asset that is not someone else’s liability, not dependent on someone else’s promises.  

Gold’s special virtues have been recognized around the world and throughout the centuries.  So honored is gold that the wise men who followed a star made it among their gifts to a child born in a stable more than 2,000 years ago.

So, this time of year, while so many of our thoughts center on family, choose to protect your family and all that you’ve worked for.  Find out why gold is the money of the ages, and why it makes a perfect gift for family members and loved ones.  

Speak with an RME gold and silver expert today.  

And Merry Christmas from all of us at Republic Monetary Exchange!

Federal Reserve Eagle

Why the Fed Can’t Normalize

(They’re Between a Rock and a Hard Place)

It is better to not get started using addictive drugs.  Ask any addict.  Their trouble does not start when they try to stop.  The trouble starts when they start using.

It is the same with fiat (legalized counterfeiting, money-printing) monetary policies.  The trouble started when they started.  But the politicians want the cheap high, the something for nothing policies, and all the votes they can buy with promises of free stuff.  And, frankly, the authorities either are not smart enough or are not capable of stopping them.

That is why the Founders insisted on a sound – gold and silver-based – monetary system for the new Republic.  That is why they wrote gold and silver money into the Constitution.  So that the fiat, funny money addiction could not get started.  It was a good idea.  But one that would work only if the governing classes abided by their oath to support and defend the Constitution.  

They did not do that.

We do not know how many elected officials have betrayed that oath, but probably most of them.  Enough that Constitutional money was long ago replaced by the Federal Reserve.  The dollar was once as good as gold.  Now the dollar is as good as paper.

But enough lamenting what happened.  Now the nation, the elite, and the governing classes are addicted to fiat money.  And there is no easy way out.  Now they cannot quit distorting interest rates.  They cannot quit printing money.  They cannot let conditions return to normal.

We will let newsletter writer Bill Bonner explain why.  He points to a measure of the value of stocks compared to the nation’s total productivity, the Gross Domestic Product.  That measure shows that stocks are generally equal to about 80 percent of GDP.

But today that ratio is at an all-time high – 213 percent of GDP!  That is not just above the long-term average… It is in the stratosphere.

So, the Fed policy has driven inflation to its highest in 40 years.  Well, why doesn’t the Fed just stop and return to normal, sensible monetary practices”


If the monetary policy would go back to normal, stock prices would go back to normal, too…

With U.S. GDP at about $23 trillion right now, that would put the total value of all stocks – mostly owned by the top 10% of the population – at around $18.5 trillion… or about $30 trillion lower than they are today.

Almost all of the losses would come out of the pockets of the elite.

The elite would lose power, too. The ruling party would be voted out of office… And those who take over would be warned: Don’t cut off the money.

There is no easy way out.  No addict wants to suffer withdrawals. It would have been better not to start down the fiat money desolation road in the first place.  The Founders knew that.  They wanted a Constitutional government that would protect the money and your wealth with gold and silver.

But now you must protect your own wealth.  We are here to help.  Call or stop by and speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist.  Find out how to survive and prosper now that Washington’s fiat money addicts are between a rock and a hard spot. 

The Fed Serves Up Another Nothingburger!

Inflation fight lost before it starts!

Buy gold now.  The Federal Reserve’s response to the highest inflation in 40 years, inflation that already has many Americans struggling with sharply rising grocery bills, is to serve up a giant nothingburger.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on December 15th that the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero, but is speeding up the reduction in its asset purchases.

So interest rates, for those that can borrow at favored insider rates, are less than negative five percent.  Yet the Fed intends to leave those rates in place while producer prices have moved within a whisker of double-digits over the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, the Fed says that it will reduce the rate at which it purchases US government and mortgage securities.   It purchased securities with made-up money at the rate of $120 billion a month throughout most of 2020 and 2021.  In November it announced it will taper the pace of those purchases by $15 billion a month.  But with the latest surge in inflation, it announced today that it would taper at a rate of $30 billion a month instead.

As for interest rate increases, the Fed signaled that it is prepared to increase benchmark rates as many as three times next year, to cool high inflation.  But nothing now.  It apparently doesn’t think that the highest inflation in 40 years needs cooling now.

Market commentator Michael Shedlock was withering in dismissing today’s policy announcement, calling it “wimpy,” and a “clown act.”

We agree that the Fed’s policy response is not serious and expect more policy pivots at any time.

A CNBC reporter wrote recently, “The Powell Fed, in fact, has become almost as known for its abrupt changes in direction as it has for the unprecedented levels of stimulus it has provided during the pandemic.” 

Biden Inflation is Sizzling Hot!

Got Gold?

Last month we reported the inflation had reached the highest level in 30 years. 

 But that was last month.  Now we have the highest inflation in 40 years!

On Friday (12/10) the government reported that consumer prices have risen 6.8 percent over the last 12 months.  

Few have wasted time dubbing this the Biden Inflation.  

Many close inflation critics believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index actually understates the real pace of rising consumer prices.

For the month of November alone consumer prices rose 0.8 percent which compounds to within a whisker of double-digit inflation at 0.096 percent.  November was the fifth straight month of inflation registering more than 5 percent.

Inflation this hot doesn’t happen by accident.  It requires criminally reckless money printing and crazed deficit spending.  At the same time the news broke of the frightening inflation numbers, the Wall Street Journal reported this:

“The Senate overcame the biggest hurdle to raising the debt ceiling Thursday, with more than a dozen Republicans joining Democrats to help clear legislation crafted to avert a government default.”

And this:

“The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to widen to $195 billion in November from $145 billion one year earlier.”

Few are prepared for rampaging inflation and a currency crisis.  The Committee to Unleash Prosperity points out that half of Americans were born after 1980, which means that they have no experience with this kind of dollar destruction.  But there should be one question on everyone’s lips:

“Got gold?”

This is an ideal time for you to review the steps you have taken to prepare for rising inflation.

The Financial Strain from Inflation

Just like inflation, the financial strain it causes is on the rise. These pair of polls tell the story.

A majority of people say inflation is causing them financial strain, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll.

56 percent of respondents say that inflation is rising and that it is causing them financial strain.  Half of them categorize the financial strain as “major.”

Grocery and gas prices are the primary concern of more than half.  Others list housing and utility expenses.

Elsewhere in the financial world, banks are assessing their readiness for inflation’s impact on their customers.  

“Senior bankers are increasingly concerned that higher inflation could impact borrowers’ ability to pay back loans, slow U.S. economic growth, and destabilize stock markets,” reports Reuters.  

“Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank was running internal health checks to ensure its portfolios could withstand a return to 1970s-style inflation.”

Here’s a headline from Yahoo News:  “77% of Americans now say inflation is personally affecting them — and 57% blame Biden.”

More respondents named inflation as “the most important issue facing America,” in the Yahoo poll than any other choice.

People are struggling to find out what is happening with prices and their purchasing power. Searches for the word “inflation” on Google are at record highs.

Why We Need to Audit the Fed and the American Peoples’ Gold

There are too many unanswered questions about who has title to and controls the gold. 

We think it is important to be good stewards of our resources.  And that includes the American peoples’ gold held by the government and/or by the Federal Reserve.  We have long supported the Audit the Fed measure championed for so long by Congressman Ron Paul.  After all, even the smallest of public companies must be audited each year by independent auditors.

Yet the Fed bitterly resists submitting to an audit.  We must wonder why.  We desperately need an audit of US gold reserves as well.  One congressman, Alex Mooney from West Virginia agrees.  But he has run into a wall of non-responses and obfuscation from the Biden administration.

Their non-responsive response has us wondering if someone is up to no good.  Here are details from the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.  They write:

Recent correspondence between U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, and the U.S. Treasury Department suggests that the department has given the Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund unfettered control of a substantial portion of U.S. gold reserves.

In a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on June 9 this year Mooney posed many questions about the U.S. gold reserves, which are owned by the Treasury.

A reply dated September 29 from the Treasury Department’s deputy assistant secretary for appropriations in the department’s Office of Legislative Affairs, Angel Nigaglioni, obtained by GATA this week declined to answer most of Mooney’s questions, suggesting that the congressman pose them to the Fed and 

the IMF, though the gold belongs to the Treasury Department itself.

Particularly, Nigaglioni replied, the Treasury Department won’t say:

  • How much of its gold is kept at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Why Treasury gold is kept at the New York Fed.
  • Whether any of the Treasury gold at the New York Fed has recently been audited, assayed, or inventoried.
  • Whether the Treasury gold held at the New York Fed is segregated from gold vaulted there by other nations.
  • How much Treasury gold is part of the IMF’s gold holdings, nor where Treasury gold assigned to the IMF is kept, and won’t explain the purpose of the assignment of Treasury gold to the IMF.

Nigaglioni did say that the Treasury Department and U.S. Mint do not engage in gold or gold derivatives transactions through the Bank for International Settlements, other central banks, or governments. But this did not exclude the Federal Reserve’s use of Treasury gold for such transactions 

Since Mooney’s questions involved the Treasury’s own gold, the Treasury surely knows or should know the answers, or else the Treasury is a negligent custodian of national assets. That the Treasury won’t answer Mooney’s questions is more evidence that it and the Federal Reserve are using U.S. gold reserves for surreptitious interventions in the gold market.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

We take it as a given that an audit of US gold will reveal substantial malfeasance and suspect the title to the people gold may have been compromised, pledged, or hypothecated without authorization or transparency.  

The American people will be shocked as well, to learn what the Federal Reserve has done in their name and with their currency.  For example, Senator Bernie Sanders wrote that a 2011 Government Accounting Office inquiry found that the Fed:

… provided a whopping $16 trillion in secret loans to bail out American and foreign banks and businesses during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression…The Fed outsourced virtually all of the operations of their emergency lending programs to private contractors like JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.  The same firms also received trillions of dollars in Fed loans at near-zero interest rates. Altogether some two-thirds of the contracts that the Fed awarded to manage its emergency lending programs were no-bid contracts. Morgan Stanley was given the largest no-bid contract worth $108.4 million to help manage the Fed bailout of AIG.

Even a US congressman can’t get straight answers for the Treasury about our gold.  But Republic Monetary Exchange’s team of gold and silver professionals is willing to answer all your questions about protecting your wealth, yourself, and your family with gold and silver.

What Happens to Inflation if Oil Hits $150?

And what happens to gold?

Here’s one of those issues that should not need extensive polling and surveys.  It should be self-evident.  

But let’s back into it.

JPMorgan analysts say the price of oil will test $125 a barrel next year, on its way to $150 in 2023. 

Their analysis HERE finds that producers OPEC and Russia “have returned to a position of positive leverage.”   

Speaking of things that are self-evident, that should have been foreseeable on inauguration day in January, when President Biden canceled the federal permit for construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.  Keystone was expected to deliver 800,000 barrels per day from Canada to the US.  

So, if the price of gasoline doubles or more, who is hit hardest?  People already struggling with high gas prices and fearing winter’s energy bills?  Or the rich, people whose wealth will suffer negligible impact?

Sorry for asking the obvious.  But it came to mind when we saw this report on a new Gallup survey about inflation:  “45 percent of American households report that recent price increases are causing their family some degree of financial hardship. Ten percent describe it as severe hardship affecting their standard of living, while another 35 percent say the hardship is moderate.”

The report finds that poorer people are hit harder by inflation than the rich.  For example, “Seventy-one percent of those living in households making less than $40,000 a year say that recent price hikes have caused their family financial hardship. That compares with 47 percent of those in middle-income households and 29 percent in upper-income households.”

We would not have known what those percentages were in advance, and they will change, but it is only obvious that those with less money will have a harder time absorbing the impact of inflation.  

It is only obvious as well, that if JPMorgan analysts are right about oil running up to $150, it is the poor and middle class that will feel it the most.  

A better question is this:  What will $150 oil do the inflation rate?  Everything made, everything consumed, everything transported to a store or to your home has an energy component.  Noting escapes energy costs.  Nothing.  

Here’s a long-term chart of both oil and gold prices.  We can not say they move in lockstep, but they tend to move in a tandem direction.

That is to be expected since they are both natural resources that must be recovered from the earth at substantial expense.  

We think it is also self-evident that if the analysts are correct and oil prices double from here (likely, given Biden’s energy policies) it will increase price inflation throughout the economy.  

And it will pull the gold price much, much higher. 

Misery, Confidence, and Inflation!

This is going to be one heck of a gold and silver bull market!

The Misery Index is at Carter’s presidency levels.  Consumer confidence is at a decade low.  And inflation is at a 30 year high.

Not good.

The Misery Index is the sum of the inflation rate and unemployment.  It’s at 10.8 percent.  Sure, it was higher during the lockdown.  But that’s because everything was, you know, locked down!

Writing for the Mises Institute, economist Daniel Lacalle says, “United States consumers have been able to endure this period thanks to prudent saving and moderating consumption levels, but the cushions that have allowed them to get through these months are vanishing. Time to stop the spending, deficit, and printing lunacy, or the stagflation of the seventies will not be a risk, but a reality.”

And wait until you see what happens with prices in 2022.  According to a General Mills memo to retailers reported by CNN, the company is “raising prices in mid-January on hundreds of items across dozens of brands. They include Annie’s, Progresso, Yoplait, Fruit Roll-Ups, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury, Cheerios, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Lucky Charm’s, Wheaties, Reese’s Puffs, Trix and more…”

“For some items, prices will go up by around 20 percent beginning next year.”

20 percent is a big jump!

But it’s not just the US that is experiencing inflation.  The inflation rate in Hungry is 6.6 percent; in Poland, it is 6.4 percent.  Germany’s inflation in November spiked to 6 percent.   Both Spain and Belgium report 5.6 percent inflation.

High inflation is the story at every turn.  Producer prices in Japan rose by 8.0 percent in the 12 months ending in October.  China’s producer price roared ahead 13.5 percent in the same period.  

Baby boomers have some memory of the inflation crises of the past, but it is all new to the millennials.  It takes a while for consumers of every generation to realize that it is not just prices going up, but that the money itself is losing value.   There is always a leading-edge that gets it first.  They are buying gold and silver today.  At first a few wake up; others figure it out more slowly.  

It takes a while sometimes for the masses to catch on, but global inflation will eventually drive people everywhere to the safety of gold and silver.

Joined by investors and common folks around the world, it is going to be one heck of a bull market!

Inflation is No Longer Transitory

Stop the presses!

This just in!

Inflation is no longer transitory!

Not only that, but the risk for even higher inflation has increased.  

Like we’ve been saying…

In congressional testimony, Tuesday (11/30) Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said it is a good time to “retire” the word “transitory” which he has used all year to minimize the impact of Fed-created inflation or dollar depreciation.

Since Powell has been wrong about the duration of surging inflation, we suggest that it might be a good time to actually retire not just the word, but Powell himself, the biggest money printer in the history of the money printing Fed.  

Not going to happen.  President Biden has just reappointed Powell for another four years.

We want our friends and clients to know that it is not anything personal with Powell.  We also wished for the sudden retirements of other Fed chairmen like Yellen and Bernanke.  It is not who they are that troubles us.  It is what they do.

If we can reduce it to its simplest terms, take out the professional jargon and the academic pretense, it becomes clear that their whole operation is nothing more than legalized counterfeiting.

A free and prosperous society depends on people exchanging goods with one another in an honest way.  We acquire the things we desire in life by creating things or producing services that others want.  We give something of value for something else of value.   In this way – in actually serving others – we seek to meet our own needs and advance our individual objectives.  

Now plug the money printing Fed into the equation.  It creates purchasing power for itself and for its cronies, for which nothing valuable has been produced.  When that money is spent, someone is getting something for nothing.  The price is ultimately borne by the other holders of its currency.  Value is quietly taken from them to the extent of the Fed and its circles are given unearned value.  And that is not consistent with a fair and honest economy.

That is why we champion gold.  Its value is real.  It cannot be printed.

We’d like to share a piece by newsletter writer Bill Bonner that makes the same point.  He notes that since March 2020, consumer spending has risen by 13.5 percent “thanks to the feds’ giveaways, stimmies, non-repayable loans, deficits, and other money-shuffling claptrap.”

So nothing of value was produced that enabled all that spending. 

Says Bonner:

Real demand (purchasing power) comes from the output. In other words, you gotta have something to spend. And you get it by having something to sell (labor, product, service, etc.).

In the same period, real output (real personal income fewer transfer payments) went up, too – but by less than 1%.

So demand (based on phony money-printing, not output) rose more than 13 times faster than supply.

What should happen under these circumstances? Prices should rise. Which is exactly what happened. 

This monetary gamesmanship eventually destroys the currency, in this case, the dollar.  As more and more people figure out the game, the currency loses value faster and faster.  Which is where we are today.

This is also why we recommend you speak to a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist.  Make sure the Fed does not flimflam you with its something-for-nothing fraud.  Preserve your wealth and profit in this era of no-longer transitory inflation.

More News Nuggets for Gold Silver Investors

Catching up on information too informative and interesting to pass up:


The Federal Reserve’s talking point about transitory inflation is “going to go down in history as one of the worst inflation calls.”  

So says famed portfolio manager Mohamed El-Erian.

“They got stuck on the narrative and held on to it for too long,” El-Erian says in an interview with Bloomberg. “The result of which is they’re looking at inflation that is much higher than they ever expected … much broader than they expected … and that’s going to last even longer than they expected.”

But we all knew that already, didn’t we?

Industrial metals supplies tight, prices soaring


“For the first time in more than a decade, six of the world’s most vital industrial metals are flashing a rare synchronized warning over tight supply, as logistical turmoil and strong demand spark anxiety among buyers. 

“From aluminum to zinc, spot prices for base metals on the London Metal Exchange are all soaring above futures — a condition known as backwardation — for the first time since 2007. Buyers are paying a premium for access to metal against a backdrop of plunging exchange inventories, supply-chain delays, production hiccups and surging demand for industrial commodities in everything from construction to consumer electronics.”

Give that to us again:  Wasn’t inflation supposed to be transitory?

Somehow the Dollar and a Quarter Store doesn’t have the same ring to it!


“Faced with the rising cost of goods and freight, discount retail chain Dollar Tree said Tuesday it will raise its prices to $1.25 for most of its products.

“Dollar Tree said the reason for raising its prices to $1.25 was not due to “short-term or transitory market conditions” and said the price increases were permanent.”

Thanksgiving Leftovers

The media offers us advice for adjusting our holidays to accommodate Washington’s inflation.


“NBC’s Vicky Nguyen tell viewers to combat inflation-spiked Thanksgiving by ditching the Turkey & charging guests.”

“Maybe you do an Italian feast …If you tell everyone you’re having Thanksgiving without turkey, some guests may drop off the list & that’s a way to cut costs too.”

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed suggest switching from turkey to tofu:

From the FRED Blog: “A Thanksgiving dinner serving of poultry costs $1.42. A soybean-based dinner serving with the same amount of calories costs 66 cents and provides almost twice as much protein.”

Our suggestion:  Just get rid of the Fed turkeys.

For advice on protecting your family, your wealth, and your retirement from inflation, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals consultant today.   He will help you create a sensible portfolio that meets your individual needs.

I Wish I’d Said That, Part II


Just a few observations about money and the economy we’re been bookmarking lately, thinking that our readers will find them interesting.

Let’s start with Ayn Rand, The Ayn Rand Letter:

“Inflation is not caused by the actions of private citizens, but by the government: by an artificial expansion of the money supply required to support deficit spending. No private embezzlers or bank robbers in history have ever plundered people’s savings on a scale comparable to the plunder perpetrated by the fiscal policies of statist governments.” 


From Stephen Roach,

The transitory inflation debate in the United States is over. The upsurge in US inflation has turned into something far worse than the Federal Reserve expected. Perpetually optimistic financial markets are taking this largely in stride. The Fed is widely presumed to have both the wisdom and the firepower to keep underlying inflation in check. That remains to be seen.

For its part, the Fed counsels patience. It is so convinced that its bad forecast will eventually turn out to be correct that it is content to wait….  In doing so, the Fed indicated that it was prepared to forgive above-target inflation to compensate for years of below-target inflation. Little did it know what it was getting into.


From Jacob Hornberger, Future of Freedom Foundation.

Just recently I was thinking that at the very least, libertarians have made progress in causing people to see that inflation is caused by the government — specifically the Federal Reserve — and not by the private sector.

And then President Biden comes forward and damages my optimism! 

According to an article in the Washington Post, Biden is “considering whether to escalate an attack on parts of corporate America over rising prices…. The administration would amplify criticisms of large firms in heavily concentrated industries for passing higher prices on to consumers as they benefit from high profits”…

All we need now are Richard Nixon-era wage and price controls and Gerald Ford-era “Whip Inflation Now” buttons and the inflation problem will be resolved. And just think — we can have those long lines at the gas stations all over again, just like in the 1970s.


From John Hussman, Ph.D., Hussman Funds

Market capitalization isn’t “wealth.” It’s the latest price, times shares outstanding. Blotches of ink on paper. Flashing pixels on a screen. If a dentist in Poughkeepsie buys a single share of Apple at a price that’s 10 cents higher than the previous trade, $1.6 billion in market capitalization emerges from thin air. If a single share trades 10 cents lower, $1.6 billion evaporates just as quickly. Whatever happens, every security in existence has to be held by someone until it is retired….

Ultimately, the wealth inherent in a security is the future stream of cash flows… Investors have never paid higher prices for those future cash flows or accepted prospective returns so low.

Put simply, the bubble hasn’t changed the wealth, and a collapse won’t change the wealth. What will change is the market cap. I suspect that the erasure of market cap in the coming years, and possibly the coming quarters, may be brutal. 


From David Stockman, Contra Corner

The central banking Doomsday Machine will crank on until the level of financial asset inflation and manic speculative excess finally collapses on its own weight.

Fed Balance Sheet Versus Nominal GDP

And finally, this classic observation from Ludwig von Mises:

“The gold standard makes the determination of money’s purchasing power independent of the changing ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence.”

If you would like to learn more about protecting yourself and your family with gold and silver, speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

Fed Turns Even More Left

This would be a very good time to park your wealth in gold and silver!

Well, we missed the boat on that one!

We ventured a month ago that President Biden would not reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for a second four-year term.

Our reasoning was simple enough:  Powell would be made the fall guy for the inflation that has the American people very unhappy.

It is actually disappointing that the Biden administration doesn’t feel someone should take the blame for consumer prices up 6.2 percent and wholesale prices up 8.6 percent over the last 12 months.  

It’s almost like they don’t feel inflation isn’t bad enough to need a fall guy.  It’s true that many in the governing classes aren’t feeling the pinch the way that regular people are.  Some of them have been saying that inflation is good for us.

There was more to our guess that Powell would be out.  The scent of the Fed’s insiders trading scandal is floating around the Marriner Eccles building and maybe even around Powell, too.

And there was one more thing.  Have you noticed that the Biden team always prefers the left-most alternative?  You don’t have to look too closely to see that a lot of their nominees – like Saule Omarova for comptroller of the currency – are way out in left field.

So, Biden could have turned to the progressives’ preferred candidate, Lael Brainard.  If you don’t think Powell is inflating enough, she’d be your pick.  Although it would be quite a feat to out-print Powell.  Since he took office in February 2018, the Fed has printed a heretofore unthinkable $4.25 trillion dollars.

Ultimately though, Wall Street wanted more of Powell and Wall Street generally gets its way.  With all that money printing, Powell has been as good for them as baseball has been for Chico on Saturday Night Live. 

Still, some think Biden will make Powell the fall guy if the democrats get shellacked at the polls in 2022.

Biden will soon be able to fill three more seats at the Fed.  In the meantime, Biden is signaling a hard left turn at the Fed.  He named Brainard Vice-Chair, making her the heir apparent when Powell goes.  Popular blogger Michael Shedlock, MishTalk, says, “One way or another, Progressives rate to get their wishes for more regulation as well as more climate activism.  Look for the supposedly independent Fed to turn markedly Left.”

Meanwhile, the president said Powell’s reappointment would enable them to attack inflation.  If you are waiting for the Fed to stop inflating, you’d better park your wealth in gold and silver while you wait.

It’s going to be a very long time.

Thanks Fed… for the Most Expensive Thanksgiving Ever!

Well, what did they think was going to happen?  Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Reserve money manipulators, we mean.

They printed almost $5 trillion dollars in just over two years.   And, yes, for those of you new to these comments, welcome, and we know they don’t literally “print” all that money these days.  Instead, they just strike a few keys on a computer somewhere in the Marriner Eccles building in Washington, hit enter, and send some electrons whiriling their way to make a new bookkeeping entry, creating money electronically.

Actually, printing money is so yesterday.  Digital money “printing” is so much more efficient.  So, with almost no trouble at all, no truckloads of linen stock, messy barrels of ink, and noisy printing presses, the Fed digitally created almost $5 trillion in just over two years.

(See the following chart of Fed Assets.  This represents the government bonds and other securities that the Fed purchased with absolutely no money over the past couple of years.  The Fed’s assets have grown from $3.85 trillion in September 2019 to $8.67 trillion today.)

Well, what did they think was going to happen?  Didn’t anybody pause to think that all that money had to go somewhere?  And that it would drive prices higher?  

And give us the most expensive Thanksgiving in history?

The New York Post:  

“Americans can expect to shell out 14 percent more for Thanksgiving dinner costs this year than they did last year, making this year the most expensive Thanksgiving on record, according to the American Farm Bureau.”

“The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, jumped 6.2 percent in October from a year earlier, the biggest one-year spike in over 30 years.”

Inflation is at a 30 year high.  And consumer confidence is at a 10-year low.

That is only the beginning of the inflation the Fed is sending our way.  And it is why we hope you are protecting your family and your wealth with gold and silver.

We hope that you can count the health and safety of your loved ones as among your greatest blessings of this difficult year.  

We are grateful for all our clients, new friends and old, in 2021.  After enjoying Thanksgiving, make plans to visit with us at Republic Monetary Exchange and be sure you are prepared for the coming year. 

Silver Demand Booming

Recovering from pandemic conditions, global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.29 billion ounces this year.  Led by demand of more than a half-million ounces from the industrial sector, 2021 silver demand will exceed a billion ounces for the first time since 2015, according to a report from the Silver Institute.

stacked silver bars

Physical investment demand is surging as well.  US coin and bar are expected to surpass 100 million ounces for the first time since 2015.  The trade industry report says it expects physical demand to have increased by 32 percent by year-end, to a total of 263 million ounces.   

The growth in investment demand is coming from both the US and India, according to the new report.  “Growth began with the social media buying frenzy before spreading to more traditional silver investors.  Indian demand reflects improved sentiment towards the silver price and a recovering economy. Overall, physical investment in India is forecast to surge almost three-fold this year, having collapsed in 2020.”

“This year, the silver price has built on its 2020 gains and has continued to strengthen,” according to the Institute’s news release.  “Through to November 10, prices have risen by 28% year-on-year. This follows a 27% rise for the annual average price in 2020. The upside reflects healthy investor inflows into silver, on the back of supportive macroeconomic conditions, notably the persistence of exceptionally low-interest rates, concerns about uncontrolled fiscal expansion and, most recently, growing concerns about rising inflationary pressures.”

The increase in silver industrial demand is broad-based across market segments, with investors keeping a close eye on the growth of silver usage in the solar industry.  “Photovoltaic demand will rise by 13 million ounces, to over 110 million ounces, a new high and highlighting silver’s key role in the green economy. This will also underpin much of the forecast 10 percent gain in electrical/electronics offtake. Finally, brazing alloy and solder demand is set to improve by 10 percent in 2021, helped by a recovery in housing and construction, although this will still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.”

The report concludes that silver mining production will rise by six percent this year.  “Overall, the silver market is expected to record a physical deficit in 2021, albeit modestly. At 7 million ounces, this will mark the first deficit since 2015,” it says.

Spend More to Cure Inflation

You know Washington.  They want to spend more on everything.  If the sun goes down at sunset, they’ll spend a billion dollars to try to do something about it.

Do you know why they want to spend so much?  It’s the source of their power.  It’s how they buy votes.  It’s how they raise money from lobbyists.

But this really takes the cake.  Now they want to spend more to fix inflation.  Seriously!

Never mind that deficit spending is the source of all this inflation.  Funding this spending has the digital-money printers at the Fed printing money over time. 

“Inflation is high right now, and it is affecting consumers in their pocketbook and also in their outlook for the economy. But those concerns underscore why it’s so important that we move forward on the Build Back Better legislation,” says Brian Deese, the head of the president’s National Economic Council.

President Biden, and all his flacks.  Chuck Schumer in the Senate and Janet Yellen at the Treasury.  They all say if we just spend more, we can fix this inflation thing.

It’s more than ridiculous.  Look at what they’ve already spent!

Stephen Moore, who might have been on the Federal Reserve Board but for the massive attack launched on him by Washington’s big spenders, provided us this note and chart, putting the Biden Spending Blow Out In Perspective,

Add it all up:  $1.9 trillion for the blue state bailout $1.2 trillion for the infrastructure/green new deal bill $3.5 trillion for the Govzilla social welfare bill $6.0 trillion annual budget request Nothing else even comes close!

Add it all up: 

  • $1.9 trillion for the blue state bailout
  • $1.2 trillion for the infrastructure/green new deal bill
  • $3.5 trillion for the Govzilla social welfare bill
  • $6.0 trillion annual budget request

Nothing else even comes close!

We’re coming up on $30 trillion in US debt.  Washington will raise the debt ceiling again in a couple of weeks.  Inflation is roaring along near double-digits, impoverishing Americans along the way.

And gold and silver are both climbing higher and higher.  Of course, they are.  Because rather than fixing inflation, deficit spending makes the dollar worthless and gold and silver worth more!

Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today and be ready because, as sure as the sun rises in the morning, Washington will spend this country into virtual bankruptcy!

Preparing for the New Age of Inflation

With US inflation rates approaching double-digits once again, you need to take steps to protect yourself, your family, and your hard-earned wealth.

The background briefing on gold and silver as the world’s time-tested haven against out-of-control government spending is available to you now in a short and easy-to-understand book I have recently released.

REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: The American Gold Story will prepare you for the next stages of today’s inflationary crisis.  It pulls back the curtain on the “monetary madmen” destroying the purchasing power of the dollar and charts the reckless trajectory of today’s Federal Reserve policies.

Here are a couple of brief excerpts from REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE:

The Federal Reserve has taken this country’s economy into extremely dangerous territory.  It is not enough for us to say that we do not believe the Federal Reserve has any idea what it has done with these policies.  It is better that you should know that the Fed itself admits it does not know what it has done.

We will simply quote Fed chairman Jerome Powell as the 2020 [money pumping] operation was underway:

“We’re not even thinking about thinking about the consequences of our actions.”

[Government debt] allows for present consumption, while shuffling the bill off to future generations.  Normal, healthy people try to leave something their children and grandchildren.  The Framers of the Constitution wrote that their aim was to “secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity,” for those to come.  But a perverse generation burdens little children who have no say-so in the matter with debt that they must bear all their lives at the expense of their own prosperity.

The monetary system of fraudulent, legalized counterfeiting has now been allowed to reach its logical extreme and it will now collapse of its unrestrained excesses and deceit.

To some it may appear melodramatic to announce that we are at a monetary endgame.  But it is clear-eyed realism that follows from the historical precedents.  And from the hard accounting.

Americans across the land are wondering what to do now.  Hard on the heels of a national lockdown and the shuttering of thousands of businesses and the loss of untold jobs, inflation has roared back into our daily lives.  REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE will help you understand and prepare for the economic turmoil facing us today.

If you would like a free copy for yourself or share it with friends and family, stop by our offices in Phoenix or call and speak with one of our precious metals professionals.

There is no cost and no obligation. REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE: The American Gold Story is an important briefing.  We want as many Americans as possible to be prepared so that we come out of this crisis-free and prosperous!

What, Me Worry?

The “Wall Street is starting to get antsier about inflation” reads the YAHOO! News headline.  “Investors are more worried about inflation than the Fed seems to be…”

Then, as the inflation numbers are coming in huge — at the same time along comes some genius at MSNBC to inform us that all this inflation isn’t a bad thing, after all.  In fact, a Fox News accounts of this balderdash headlines it this way: “MSNBC columnist says current inflation crisis is actually a ‘good thing.’”

What, me worry about inflation? the columnist seemed to ask.  

It was simply MAD!

It was not a swell time for this particular set of opinions to appear because on the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index was up 8.6 over the twelve months ending in October.  

And that is uncomfortably close to double-digit inflation.

According to MSNBC’s own headline their columnist James Surowiecki, the MSNBC columnist, explains “How Covid became the unlikely hero of our inflation crisis.”

Enough of the battling headlines.  Surowiecki explains “Historically, recessions have left Americans poorer, not better off. But the Covid recession was different. As people shifted their habits drastically in response to the pandemic, they spent much less and saved more. Even though millions of Americans lost their jobs, enhanced unemployment benefits and stimulus payments left many of them better off, not worse. And the stock market, after initially falling, boomed.

Employment benefits and stimulus payments left much better off?  And the stock market boomed?  Well, congratulations to the monied classes.  Never mind the millions who lost their jobs.  Or the family businesses that closed taking the savings of perhaps generations with it.  MSNBC sees it differently.  

We barely have the patience to explain that the money for employee benefits and stimulus payments actually comes from somewhere.  The governments that write those benefit and payment checks don’t create any wealth.  So, their checks must be covered by someone else.  From people who are productive.  It will come from taxation, borrowing (that must be paid back), or by destroying the purchasing power of the currency.

Or as Milton Friedman said, “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.”  Stated differently, what distinguishes a responsible commentator on economic things from an MSNBC or an irresponsible one (do we repeat ourselves?) is that the responsible ones know that are two sides to the balance sheet.  Of course, the people who receive “free” money like it.  Except that it is not really free.  And inflation, so benign as it scatters its “blessings,” actually destroys savings and frays the social fabric.  It cripples capital formation which is the engine of future growth and polarizes the poles of the wealthy and the impoverished.  It undermines people’s natural propensity to prepare for the future and collapses entire nations.  

As for Mr. Surowiecki, he is concerned that TV news stories about rising prices are “likely to confuse and frighten viewers rather than enlighten them.”

Right. It’s funny that in enlightening people himself, he doesn’t say a word about the trillions in fiat money the Fed has “legally counterfeited” lately.  Quite an oversight.

The public sees the prices at the grocery store and at the gas pump Mr. Surowieki.  They are not confused about the damage inflation is doing to their pocketbooks, their savings, their household budgets!

The only thing confusing is why hack commentators try to run interference for the bunglers in Washington and soft-pedal the news of their malperformance.  

As long as people like Surowiecki, apologists for the Deep State Money Manipulators, are prominent in the public debate, buy gold and silver.

With both hands!

Inflation Roars! Gold Surges!

Market Alert!

Consumer prices have risen 6.2 percent over the last 12 months.  

Gold rocketed higher on the news.  The market saw it coming and began climbing days in advance of the reports.

But spiking consumer prices tell only part of the story.  It gets worse.

Wholesale prices have risen 8.6 percent in the past year.

We are dangerously close to double-digit inflation!  

It is not only dangerous, it is a national disgrace.

Here are the ugly details.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday (11/10/21) that its Consumer Price Index rose 6.2 percent in the 12 months through October.  That is the highest inflation rate since 1990.  

The energy component of the CPI was up 4.8 percent in just the last month!

The CPI is the headline story.  It is the most reported price index.  But it the background is the Producer Price Index.  It reports on wholesale prices.  Over the last year, ending October 31, wholesale prices rose 8.6 percent.   That number is not a fluke.  Wholesale prices were up 8.6 percent for the 12 months ending in September as well.

We called the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement about inflation one week ago “a big, fat nothing burger.”  More spin than substance.  Now the gold market has ratified our view.  From a low 0f $1758 on the day of the Fed’s press conference, gold has moved up $90 an ounce.  It has been four uninterrupted days in a row of higher prices.

That is not a vote of confidence in the Deep State Money Manipulators.

With some urgency, we advise our friends and client to take steps now to fortify their portfolios with gold and silver.  Please call and speak with one of our gold and silver professionals today.

We are dangerously close to double-digit inflation!

You Can Always Trust the Fed

…to print more money!

We have to take issue with most Americans.  They don’t trust the Federal Reserve.  

Two Ipsos polls this year, commissioned by Axios, show that a majority of the people, ranging from 53 percent to 60 percent, don’t trust the Fed.

The numbers might have been higher, but the polling was done before all the stories broke about possible insider trading at the Fed. 

After the failures of Bears Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, the Federal Reserve secretly committed the American people and the US government to $29 trillion in bailout commitments.  No debate, no legislation, to authorization.  $29 trillion!  Wall Street on Parade notes that with the Fed has gone to court for three years to keep the American people learning the details of these crony deals, it has lost all credible claims to the trust of the American people.

But there is one thing you can trust the Fed to do:  print more money.  That is the sole source of its power.  That is why it was created.  That is what it does.  And frankly, that is all it does.  Oh sure, it has a couple of other functions like running the check clearing operations between banks.  But that could easily be done, and probably at much less cost, by private companies.  

None of this should be a surprise.  You can learn more about the Fed and money printing in my new book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE:  The American Gold Story.  Stop by our offices and pick up a copy.  There is no cost and no obligation.  We just think that the more people who know what is happening to our money, the better off we will all be when the crisis comes!

So with the American people getting the idea that inflation, now at a 30 year high, is going to be with us for a while, the Fed delivered a long-awaited announcement last week explaining what it was going to do about it.

It turned out to be a big, fat nothing burger.  

Did the Fed announce it was going to stop inflating?  No.  But it says it will slow down.  At least for now.  Although it might change its mind.  But it certainly isn’t going to raise interest rates.

So the Fed will still enter 2o23 printing about $3 billion a day!

As we said, the big announcement responding to unacceptable inflation amounted to a big, fat nothing burger.  The markets yawned.   

If the Fed tapers its money printing at the schedule the Fed suggested, here is what happens to the Fed’s assets, all the money that it has printed to buy things like government debt and mortgage bonds:

It remains bloated beyond belief.   As we reminded you recently, Nobel-prize winning economist Milton Friedman pointed out that there is a time lag between increases in the money supply and it showing up in rising consumer prices.  Some economists now believe that time lag can last a year or two.  The incredible amount of money the Fed has printed since 2020 will be showing up in rising prices for a long time to come.

And at the first sign of trouble on Wall Street, the Fed will crank the digital printing presses right back up.  

Because you can always trust the Fed.

To print more money.

I Wish I’d Said That!


Today we push back from the keyboard.  Maybe we’ll go fishing.  Or see a movie.  

That’s because what we would like to have said about America’s historic wealth transfer and power concentration out of the hands of the middle class and into those with political power and connections has been written by someone else.

Carol Roth (@caroljsroth) / Twitter

In fact, that very phrase, “the historic wealth transfer” are her words and not mine:

“When historians look back on the decisions made beginning in March 2020 and still going strong, this period will be remembered as the ‘Great Consolidation’—the acceleration of a historic wealth transfer and power concentration out of the hands of the middle class and into those with political power and connections.”

“Her” is Carol Roth, a former investment banker and author of the new book The War on Small Business.  The piece we are citing appeared in Newsweek of all places.  If you would like to know why you need to own gold and silver in an economy that is rigged against you, read it.  Here’s a link.  

We can’t just reproduce the whole article, but here are a few snippets to give you an idea of what is going on:

  • Prior to COVID, more than 30 million small businesses accounted for about half the GDP and jobs in America; the other half of the economy was concentrated in 20,000 big companies. So you might have expected that small businesses would have had an equal amount of negotiating power when the pandemic hit as big companies. You would be wrong.
  • As a result, big firms were deemed “essential” and allowed to stay open during the pandemic, while small businesses were subjected to punishing lockdown orders and forced to close, in part or completely. Many of the examples were doubly infuriating given the absurd hypocrisies they presented. For example, big box pet retailers like PetSmart that groomed pet hair and nails were deemed essential—while salons owned by small business owners that served humans were not.  The LA-area Pineapple Hill Saloon and Grill was forced to close their outdoor dining—while a movie production not only operated but hosted a catering tent serving food to crew in the same parking lot that the restaurant had been forced to abandon.
  • Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve was pumping trillions of dollars into the markets, helping to inflate stock valuations. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses were murdered in just a few short months—by government edict—while seven tech companies gained $3.4 trillion in market value….
  • If you were able to access capital—which is code for already being big or wealthy, even if you weren’t in some cases financially sound—it was plentiful and, for debt capital, available at historically low interest rates. 2020 became a record year for IPOs and for other capital-raising vehicles like special purpose acquisition companies. And some of this capital was likely used to compete with your local small businesses.

We highly recommend this piece. Other than mentioning the Fed pumping money to its cronies, Roth doesn’t say much about monetary policy.  But we cover all that in detail and we encourage you to share our blog posts with your friends and family members.

And if you have any questions or want to learn more about protecting yourself and your family with gold and silver, speak with one of our precious metals professionals today.

Cashing In

Forbes reports that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s net worth is about $2o million.  That’s a lot of money for a college professor and occasional bureaucrat.  According to Forbes, Yellen “built up her small fortune over time, through years in academia and government, cashing in most clearly after she left her position as Fed chair in 2018.”

Speaking fees from Google, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Barclays during the lockdown added an estimated $7.2 million to her portfolio.  

Well.  Those of us who have heard her speak are scratching our heads.

Yellen is not the only one cashing in at the Fed.  A couple of Fed bank presidents suddenly resigned last month.  Questions are being asked about the trading activities of still others.  Even Chairman Jerome Powell can’t duck the stench.  According to Wall Street on Parade, “Powell had sold between $1 million and $5 million of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund on October 1, 2020, the same day that Powell had been on four phone calls with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who was coordinating the White House response to the financial crisis resulting from the pandemic.”

Have you ever wondered why Wall Street hangs on every word uttered by Fed officials like Yellen?  They dot plot their votes, eagerly await the release of the old minutes of their Fed meetings, and pay them well for every word and inside tip they provide.

The Fed says they might raise rates...again

Should the resilience of the American economy depend on the productivity of the people, their innovation, their savings and capital formation, and their well-being?

Or should it depend on the deliberations and machinations of a bunch of mostly nameless, faceless bureaucrats who stovepipe billions to one favored constituency after another?  The blind-leading-the-blind decisions of a board of unelected professors who have boomed and busted the economy over and over again?

We might as well ask if interest rates shouldn’t reflect the real conditions of the supply and demand for capital – so that no one is misled by artificial rates designed to help some beneficiaries at the expense of others not as well-positioned.

You see where we’re going with this.  Shouldn’t money be something of value, something liquid that the entire world prizes?  Or should it be something of no enduring value, printed digitally by bureaucrats?  Which of those will inspire more stability and long-term confidence?

Of course, the answer is available for all to see in the history of money.  Because all unbacked, paper money currencies eventually fold, while gold and silver have endured as valued monetary assets for millennia.

Republic Monetary Exchange’s gold and silver professionals can help you design a precious metals portfolio that meets your needs for wealth preservation and profit.

And don’t forget to pick up a copy of my new book Real Money for Free People at our offices.

No cost or obligation.  Just vital information.

Gold Money Reappears Amidst the Ruin of Venezuela

Q:  How long does it take people to turn to gold and silver when their government’s unbacked, fiat, irredeemable paper money collapses?

A:  It takes almost no time at all.  Just look at what is going on in Venezuela right now.  The money-printing madmen have made the national currency, the bolivar, into a national joke.

Recently President Nicolás Maduro had six zeroes knocked off the old bolivar notes.  The one million bolivar note was replaced with a new one bolivar note.  Stated differently, if you had 100 million bolivars, now you would have 1 bolivar.  

The idea was that with a loaf of bread costing seven million bolivars, carrying around that much currency and all the accounting at those large numbers was a nuisance.  So the State, which had inflated the old currency into near worthlessness, would do the people a favor with the new more convenient government paper money.

There was of course more to it than that.  By this time inflation had been plaguing Venezuelans for so long – the IMF estimated that Venezuela’s inflation would run about 5,500 percent this year – no one trusts the currency.  No one wants to hold it or save with it.

So the State hopes that there are some simple, unsuspecting people asleep at the switch who will believe the new bolivar means a real and lasting currency reform.  Those people would hold and save the new “reformed” bolivar, enabling the government to defraud them all over again with a new round of money printing.

Venezuela Bolivar Hyperinflation
The previous hyperinflated Bollivars compared to a US Dollar.

But when a government’s currency begins to fail, at first a few people realize what is going on.  Others may think prices are going up, but those who have watched the State money manipulators soon realize that it is the money itself that is failing.  

Those who converted their paper money and bolivar savings to gold early in the inflation era are counted as the lucky ones.  Small amounts of gold and silver have made many wealthy among the general impoverishment of the Maduro regime.

But others learn the lessons of fake money soon.  In no time at all the informed are followed by the less informed.  They, too, switch out of the government money both for their savings and for taking in payment for goods and services.

And where do they turn?

To gold and silver, as we said at the beginning of these remarks.

Now Bloomberg News reports that in places in Venezuela, gold has reappeared in daily commerce.  Miners pay workers in bits of gold.  They in turn break off flakes of gold to pay for lodging, in bars, and even for haircuts.

One of the great ironies of this development is that people use the old, virtually worthless paper bolivars to wrap up and protect the shards, flakes, and nuggets of gold in their pockets and purses.   

An empty food market in January 2018- Caracas, Venezuela

Scraping off flakes of gold so small they can barely be measured may seem a little primitive, but it is far better than being fleeced by unbacked printing press money.  As gold commerce becomes more common, improvements appear.  Joseph Salerno is academic vice president of the Mises Institute, writes about what needs to happen next:

“For gold to become a full-blown currency that can viably compete with depreciating dollars and other foreign currencies, the raw nuggets need to be minted into convenient shapes and sizes and their weight and fineness certified by reputable firms. This means that any legal barriers to private mints must be eliminated. In addition, sales and capital gains taxes on gold must be abolished. Since it is highly unlikely that these measures will be implemented by the Maduro government, we can only cheer on the inroads made by the people’s gold flake currency.”

Fortunately, our friends and clients at Republic Monetary Exchange don’t have to resort to backward practices to deal in gold.  No need to resort to hand tools to scrape flakes off of nuggets for commerce.  We deal in the world’s most widely recognized and desirable gold and silver coins and bullion products of well-established and reliable weight and fineness, like the one-ounce American Gold and Silver Eagles coins and other forms of gold and silver that are popular with investors.  Your Republic Monetary Exchange advisor will be happy to show you a variety of highly recommended coins and bars and discuss the merits and advantages of each.

No matter which you choose, they are all better than depreciating paper money!

What is the Fed Hiding?

Something is up at the Federal Reserve.  Consider this:

The inflation that Fed officials didn’t foresee and then called merely transitory has become a problem…  for Fed officials.  We can safely predict that Chairman Jerome Powell will not be appointed for another term in February.  The inflation debacle is one reason.

His predecessor at the helm of the Fed, Janet Yellen is not taken seriously by anybody.  For several reasons.  One reason is the inflation debacle.

yellen printing money
Janet Yellen, former head of the Federal Reserve

If the Fed is feeling the heat from the inflation debacle, why doesn’t it stop inflating?  That is the heart of the mystery.

Both Powell and Yellen now say that the inflation debacle will continue into next year.  Yellen says until the middle of next year.

Nobel-prize-winning economist Milton Friedman pointed out that there is a lag between increases in the money supply and it showing up in consumer prices.  He said in the 1960s that lag was some six to nine months.  Today some say the time lag is longer.  

But the Fed continues to print money today.  If inflation is a problem today, and Powell and Yellen see it continuing into next year, why don’t they stop now so we can be done with this inflation plague?

Real Investment Advice asks the same question in a pointed way: “What is the Federal Reserve Hiding From Us?”  It cites hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC calling this “the most inappropriate monetary policy that I’ve seen maybe in my lifetime.” 

What is the Fed hiding?

RIA offers two suggestions.  First of all the stock market bubble.  The Fed is afraid of the stock market’s fragility.  “The last thing the Fed wants to do is pop a bubble, especially since they blew it up.”

The other is the debt bubble.  It, too, is fragile and the Fed knows it.  “Without extremely low-interest rates to make the new and existing debt affordable, economic growth would disappear, and financial defaults would be plentiful.”

In other words, the Fed is like a junkie that has to have another fix.  Withdrawal is too painful.  So the printing presses roll.

But the stock and bond market bubbles will pop, just like the junkie needing ever bigger doses will eventually overdose.

The Fed, the US government, and Wall Street are addicted to easy money.  The only thing you can do to avoid the coming monetary calamity is to get out of the way.  

You do that with gold and silver.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange professional today.  Make sure you have limited your exposure to the reckless behavior of the monetary addicts.

Head for the Hills

…and take all of the gold you can get your hands on!

We have been seeing a lot of stories lately that make us think it is all over for the American dream.  Things going on that are so destructive we would not have believed them possible just a few years ago.  

They are coming thick and fast in this administration – a plague of policies so boneheaded that they must be designed to cripple American prosperity for a very long time to come.  

There is the micro-snooping the Treasury wants to implement.  And the really lethal proposal to tax unrealized capital gains.  

But here is the one that convinces us that the Biden people are serious about turning American into a third-world country.  We want to give credit to the Wall Street on Parade that brought this story to our attention.

President Biden has nominated a woman named Saule Omarova to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal regulator of banks.  Omarova was born in Kazakhstan attended Moscow State University on a Lenin Scholarship.  Now, armed with a Ph.D. and a law degree, Omarova is a professor at Cornell law school.

In writing about Omarova’s policy papers, the Wall Street Journal described her preferences this way: “Ms. Omarova advocates central political control of capital, credit, and wages, and she has praised the Soviet-era economic system.”

gold moves

The Vanderbilt Law Review published a paper by Omarova this month called “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy.”  It proposes to shift all commercial deposits at banks to what she calls “FedAccounts” with the Federal Reserve.  With deposits safely in the Fed’s hands, she proposes that the Fed then be empowered to confiscate the FedAccounts as a tool of monetary policy.  

Her wholesale undoing of private property is only a start.  Omarova further proposes that the New York Fed be enabled to speculate in the stock market, specifically to short stocks that it deems to be in a bubble.  The Fed, she writes, “would conduct regular purchases and sales of a broad range of securities and other tradable financial assets with an explicit view to modulating volatile swings.”

What do you think?  Are they really trying to destroy what is left of the American economy?  Are they just egghead intellectuals dreaming up ideas like this – and like taxing unrealized gains – without any idea of their consequences?  Or are they undoing the economy by design?

What do you think?  And doesn’t it make you want to grab all the gold you can before they are done?

One more thing.  When people note the sheer cluelessness of Omarova’s ideas, she falls back on the current woke excuses.  “I am an easy target,” she says. “An immigrant, a woman, a minority. I don’t look like your typical comptroller of the currency. I have a different history. I am easy to demonize and vilify.”

Right.  Like it’s not her Marxist ideas.

Grab all the gold you can.  These are the people in charge.

Goodbye Middle Class, Hello Grim Economic Outlook

News you need to know about money and gold

Today’s key stories have to do with how American workers and consumers are doing, and where global inflation is the highest.

The wage statistics just released by the Social Security Administration show that the median wage for 2020 was just $34,612.04.

That means 50 percent of all workers made that or less last year, which prompted economic blogger Michael Snyder to say, “Goodbye middle class.”

Along the same lines, we ran across a story on CNBC with “tips for grocery shopping on a budget now that prices are going up.”  Among the tips: “Buy less meat.”

Gee, thanks.

Here’s a chart showing some of the consumer price changes over the last twelve months:

Stephen Moore, who President Trump nominated to the Federal Reserve Board in 2019, but who withdrew his name from consideration, passed along some numbers about working Americans’ declining earnings.

Median weekly earnings in the third quarter,2021 were $1,003 – just 0.7 percent higher than a year earlier ($996). Inflation was 5.3% over the same period. 

So, Moore writes, after adjusting for inflation workers are losing $50 a week under Biden. 

And that is before adding in the rising costs of gas and groceries. 

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says inflation is here to stay and that it poses a major threat to the U.S. markets and economy.

On CNBC last week (10/20) Jones said, “I think to me the No. 1 issue facing Main Street investors is inflation, and it’s pretty clear to me that inflation is not transitory.”

Jones said, “It’s probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial markets and I think to society just in general.”

A new CNBC poll finds that 79 percent of respondents judge the economy as just fair or poor.  That’s the most since 2014.  46 percent believe the economy will get worse in the year ahead, the grimmest outlook in the poll’s history. 

And finally, a few words about the gold standard from Ludwig von Mises:

“The gold standard did not collapse. Governments abolished it in order to pave the way for inflation. The whole grim apparatus of oppression and coercion, policemen, customs guards, penal courts, prisons, in some countries even executioners, had to be put into action in order to destroy the gold standard.”

We hope you recognize that the US economy is at a dangerous inflection point.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metal professional to find out more. Don’t forget to pick up a copy of my new book Real Money for Free People at our offices. No cost or obligation.  Just vital information.

Waiting for the Government to Stop Inflating?

Don’t Hold Your Breath!

“One of the things that surprises citizens in Argentina or Turkey is that their populist governments always talk about the middle classes and helping the poor, yet inflation still soars, making everyone poorer.”

-Daniel Lacalle

So, if you are waiting for the government to stop inflating, you would be wise to park your money in gold and silver while you wait!

After all, if you had a money printing press and could print all you want without legal consequences, would you stop?

Daniel Lacalle

That’s why at one level or another inflation persists under the president of both parties, during Congresses dominated by Republicans and Democrats alike.  They can get away with it, even though it is one of the great flimflams of all time.  They get away with it.  That’s why Federal Reserve chairman like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are appointed and reappointed by presidents of both parties.  Greenspan was originally appointed by Reagan, reappointed by first Clinton, and then again by W. Bush.  Bernanke was appointed first by W, then reappointed by Obama.

Jerome Powell was appointed by Trump.  He had the support of Biden and most Democrats until recently; the oddsmakers thought he would be reappointed at first, but his cluelessness makes him a perfect fall guy for the administration to blame for our rising inflation and other economic difficulties.  That plus the scent of Fed insiders trading fast and loose may even attach to Powell.

But the point is that Washington and the Deep State always have one of their guys in charge of money printing.  That money funds political promises to get office holders reelected.  It funds elective wars.  (And they are elective wars; if they were existential wars, we would not have risked leaving unknown billions of dollars of military hardware behind in Afghanistan!)  And it is the way $30 trillion dollars in unpayable US debt will be devalued over time – ruining what’s left of the dollar and your dollar savings along the way. 

And that is why “no government looking to massively expand its size in the economy and monetize a soaring deficit is going to act against rising prices, despite claiming the opposite,” says Daniel Lacalle.

In a new piece for the free-market Mises Institute, Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It, Lacalle writes,

Inflation does not happen the next day you print money. It is a slow process of gradual erosion of the purchasing power of the currency that started years ago and culminated with the insane decision to implement monster demand-side policies (huge government spending and money printing) in the middle of a lockdown.

But why do governments ignore it? Why do they not act? Surely it is in their best interest to keep prices low and consumers—voters—happy. The answer is simple: because governments are the biggest beneficiaries of inflation. They collect more receipts from indirect taxes and their soaring debt is slowly eroded by inflation.

Furthermore, governments never act against inflation, because they benefit from it and, more importantly, can blame it on everyone except their policies. Even in Argentina, where inflation is higher than 50 percent and ten times higher than in neighboring countries, citizens are slowly convinced that there must be other causes than money printing. Even when presented with the evidence of a central bank that has raised money supply more than 120 percent in two years with diminishing demand, the press and politicians blame inflation on “multicause” effects.

So, the media can cover for the Deep State Money Manipulators.  But it can’t very well hide the rising cost of living you see all around today.  Just remember those rising prices are simply the value of the dollar eroding away. 

And while it erodes, be sure to have your money parked in gold and silver.  Because they don’t erode.

It’s Yesterday Once More!

What the 1970’s Stagflation Was Really Like!

It was a few small, still voices at first.  Warning that the Federal Reserve was creating another stagflation decade like the 1970s.  It is not yet a chorus, but other voices are joining in, singing that old song:

Just like before

It’s yesterday once more.

Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Asia chair, now at Yale University writes that “Echoes of an earlier, darker period of economic history are growing louder.”

So, what was the Stagflation Decade really like?  The decade really began with a massive devaluation when Nixon abandoned the dollar’s gold backing in 1971.  From that day to this the dollar has been a fiat currency which means it is only money because the government says it is money. 

Here are a few bullet points:

  • The average inflation rate for the 10 years of the decade was 6.85 percent.  Many were unprepared because that was almost three times the average inflation rate of the prior two decades.
  • Like other inflations, price increases throughout the 1970s were uneven across goods and services.  Some would rise rapidly, and others moderately for a time, and then the rates of increase would change as lagging prices played catch-up.
  • Three separate years of the decade experienced double-digit price inflation:  1974, 1979, and 1980.  In the first half of 1980 the Consumer Price Index annual inflation rate rose to 14.8 percent.
  • In a brazen effort to shift responsibility for inflation, which was entirely the State’s doing, to the public, the Ford administration created a public relations campaign centered around the distribution of buttons bearing the word “WIN.”  It stood for “Whip Inflation Now,” as though inflation was something that needed to be fought by the people instead of stopped by the authorities.  Later Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, who was Ford’s head economic advisor, said he thought at the time that he thought it was “unbelievably stupid.”  But he did not say so when it mattered.
  • The stock market lost almost 50 percent of its value in a mere 20 months.
  • Unemployment rose to 9 percent.
  • Oil rose from $3 a barrel to $35 in 1981.

But of course, the big winners of the Stagflation Decade were those who turned to gold and silver for protection from the destructive activities of the Deep State Money Manipulators:

  • Gold began 1971 below $38 an ounce.  Its average price that year was just over that $40 per ounce.  At the end of the Stagflation Decade, in January 1980 it reached $850. 
  • Silver traded in 1971 between a low of $1.30 to a high of $1.80 per ounce.  At the beginning of January1980 it reached $50.

We urge you to speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today and take steps to protect yourself from renewed inflation.

News Nuggets for Gold Investors

$100 OIL?  Markets Insider: 

Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, could surge above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, in the event of another cold winter, according to a note by Bank of America Friday….

Higher oil prices could spark inflation analysts led by Francisco Blanch said.  “Oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world.  Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.”


In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value


U.S. inflation accelerated last month and remained at its highest rate in over a decade…. The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose by 5.4% from a year earlier. That is the same rate as in June and July as the economy reopened, and slightly higher than in August. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in September climbed 4% from a year earlier.


A winter of giant gas bills is coming.  According to the Energy Information Administration, nearly half of U.S. households that warm their homes with mainly natural gas can expect to spend an average of 30% more on their bills compared with last year.


Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday that inflation is likely to last longer than expected and should no longer be called “transitory.”

Bostic is the first Fed official to so clearly break from the central bank’s leadership on inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell has insisted for months on describing inflation as transitory, although he recently admitted that it could last into next year.


Frustrated shoppers share photos of bare aisles in stores across the country…

Frustrated shoppers complaining about shortages of everyday products in their local stores are attacking President Joe Biden online with the hashtag ‘Empty Shelves Joe’ as the US faces severe supply chain problems that could stretch into the new year. Dozens of cargo ships carrying hundreds of thousands of containers of goods from China and Asia are waiting to dock in California as concern grows about likely Christmas shortages. Some retailers such as Costco and Walmart are limiting sales of toilet paper in some areas and toy company CEOs are telling parents to buy their kids’ Christmas gifts now to avoid disappointment.


The Worst of Both Worlds!

We have warned several times about the return of stagflation to the US, most recently in July.   (See The Mother of All Stagflationary Debt Crises!)

But back then most people seemed to believe the Fed’s insistence that inflation itself was not much to worry about.  It was only a passing phenomenon.  And since stagflation is an economic environment that combines troublesome elements of both stagnation and inflation, or weak on non-existent economic growth, accompanied by rising prices, if the Fed were right about inflation not rising to the level of an actual, you know, economic problem, we couldn’t have stagnation.

But the folks in the marbled halls of the Marriner Eccles building in Washington were wrong again.  (We wonder:  don’t they ever tire of being wrong about almost everything?)  And now, just a few months later inflation is suddenly at a 30 year high, and alarms about stagflation are being sounded far and wide. 

A new report from the World Gold Council, Stagflation rears its ugly head (10/12/21), explains why we call stagflation the worst of both worlds: 

Over the past two months, economic growth has disappointed even as inflation has exceeded expectations. A real risk of stagflationary conditions, with rising costs amid lower growth, appears to be on the cards.

Stagflation, if severe, can be damaging to both the economy and financial markets. But we don’t need a repeat of the 1970s for assets to be affected.  Our analysis shows that even mild stagflationary conditions can have similar asset impacts to those in more severe stagflations.”

Stagflation has historically hit equities hard. Fixed-income returns have been variable, while both commodities and gold have fared well. Gold’s historically strong performance can be attributed to higher inflation and market volatility supporting capital preservation motives, and lower real interest rates supporting both opportunity cost and growth risk motives.

-World Gold Council

Others are commenting on the oil price shocks of the 1970s.  They contributed to stalling business conditions in the stagflation decade.  Now, with inflation undeniable, oil is rising again and has broken above $80 a barrel, the highest price since 2014, which could lend to a slowdown in growth.

Last summer we cited famed NYU economist Nouriel Roubini who says “a +slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable.”  He worries that debt ratios are much higher today than they were in the 70s.  Debt ratios are three times higher than in the stagflation decade.  “The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period,” says Roubini.  “The question is not if but when.”

Thus, the conditions that propelled gold and silver to new highs in the stagflation decade are assembling again.  We recommend our friends and client take steps now to protect themselves in a time-tested way, with a solid portfolio of gold and silver.

Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professionals are available to help you implement a sensible strategy for wealth preservation in inflationary and stagflationary times.

Real Money for Free People

We want to give you a free signed copy!

Skyrocketing prices, massive new spending programs, debt ceiling puppet shows, money printing, debt up the wazoo!

How did we get here?  Where is all this headed? 

You’ll find the answers to those questions and more in my new book REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE!

It tells the entire American gold story in a clear and easy-to-understand way!  And because it is information you need for the challenging times coming our way, I want you to have a copy absolutely free!

REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE is a fast-paced review of why the Founding Fathers, to assure a free and prosperous America, built the new republic on a solid monetary foundation of gold and silver.  Learn how later politicians, those of lesser character, have abandoned that foresight by handing America’s future and prosperity over to self-serving bankers and money manipulators.

In this book, I pull back the curtain to reveal what the mainstream media conceals:  how the unsustainable and reckless policies of the Federal Reserve are destroying the dollar and your savings.

Just stop by Republic Monetary Exchange and let us give you a copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE!

No cost.  No obligation.

You’ll learn exactly why the Founder insisted on gold and silver and even wrote them into the Constitution.  Wait until you read about the time the government stole the people’s gold.  It is one of the great swindles of all time! 

And you won’t want to miss the chapters called Goodbye to Gold and So Long, Silver.  They tell the diabolical story of the way paper money took the place of real money!

Where are we today and how does it all end?  REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE covers that, too, and explains why gold and silver are your best protection from the monetary imbecility and ruination of our time.

We have a free signed copy of REAL MONEY FOR FREE PEOPLE waiting for you. Stop by Republic Monetary Exchange at 4040 East Camelback Road in Phoenix, 85018.

Taking Inflation Seriously!

Watch out for 20% – 25% inflation over the next few years, says Wharton professor!

Leading establishment economists are finally starting to take inflation seriously. 

About time.  Especially since the Federal Reserve has conjured up $4 trillion out of thin air in just the last 18 months.

And it’s pretty hard to deny that inflation has returned, especially for anyone who has visited a grocery store lately.

“Inflation, in general, is going to be a much bigger problem than the Fed believes!” That is according to Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel.  He told CNBC, “We’re headed for some trouble ahead.” 

At a Forbes Top Advisor Summit in Las Vegas just days ago, Siegal projected 20 to 25 percent inflation over the next few years. 

The question has always been when does all the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing money printing enters the consumer economy.  If the Fed prints money and leaves it shrink-wrapped in a basement somewhere, it will not drive consumer price inflation.

But now Siegal says, the Powell Fed’s QE is getting out!

“Quantitative easing is important but if that quantitative easing gets in the money, watch out,” he warned.  “I never predicted inflation from the quantitative easing of [Former Federal Reserve Chair] Ben Bernanke, but I am predicting inflation from the quantitative easing that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve is doing now.”

Siegal says that inflation may play out in the form of five to seven percent annually over the next few years.

Siegel also says that gold is relatively inexpensive.

To economist Stephen Roach it also looks like we are headed into a 1970s-style stagflation. 

“It’s worrisome for the overall economic outlook and raises serious questions about the wisdom of central bank policies — especially that of the Federal Reserve,” said Roach, also on CNBC. 

The inflationary conditions that economists Siegal and Roach are now noticing will drive a stampede of gold buying when it becomes apparent to more average consumers.  That day is drawing close now.  For shoppers, it is impossible to miss higher prices at the grocery store.  The United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization’s index of international prices of commonly traded food commodities showed a big jump in September, up 32.8 percent from September 2020.

That is a big jump!

We strongly advise our friends and clients to add to their gold and silver positions now. 

Trump Warns That Inflation Will “Ravage” the U.S.

President Trump has issued a stark warning for Americans to take rising inflation seriously.

“It looks to me like inflation is going to ravage our country,” Trump said in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance.

Trump pointed to surging oil prices, now at their highest level since 2014, as evidence of inflation’s return.

“It’s very scary when you look at gasoline from $1.87 a gallon when I was president, it went from $1.87 and now it’s well over $5 that it’s going to go a lot higher,” he said.

Inflation is one of the issues that will figure in his decision whether to run for president again in 2024, said Trump. 

On the same day he was inaugurated, January 20, 2021, President Biden canceled the federal permit for construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

The pipeline was expected to deliver 800,000 barrels per day from Canada to the US.  TC Energy, which runs the pipeline immediately announced the termination of 1,000 jobs. This chart shows the rise of oil prices (the WTIC benchmark price) trending higher through much of 2021.

“What it’s going to be at a year from now, I think is going to be much higher than” current levels, said Trump of future energy prices.

Yahoo Finance will release its full interview with Trump on Monday (10/11/21).

Oh, That Inflation!

Inflation? What Inflation? Oh, That Inflation!

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell is “frustrated.”   And no wonder.  He has no clue what is going on.

Two of his central bank minions have suddenly resigned amid reports of activities that look like insider trading ducks, walk like an insider trading ducks, and quack like insider trading ducks. 

It actually makes you wonder if they are insider trading ducks.

Meanwhile, and even though he has done everything in his power to manage the US dollar the way leftists like Hugo Chavez and Nicholas Maduro managed Venezuela’s currency, America’s leftists want Biden to replace Powell with an even more extreme inflationista.  Never mind that those are policies that have three out of four Venezuelans living in extreme poverty.

That is not all.  There is that talk from the Chairman about inflation’s transitoriness – well, the poor Chairman (actually because “man” is a dirty word these days, they actually call Powell the “Chair,” like he’s a piece of furniture) has had to walk all that talk back.

And no wonder.  Inflation, according to the Fed’s favorite measure, has reached a 30 year high, “with all signs pointing to price pressure snaking into next year,” writes MarketWatch.


The personal consumption expenditure price index climbed 0.4% in August, the government said Friday. It was the sixth straight big increase.

The rate of inflation in the 12 months ended in August edged up to 4.3% from 4.2% — the highest rate since 1991, when George H.W. Bush was president.

 Until very recently, Federal Reserve leaders insisted inflation would start to fall back to toward pre-pandemic levels of 2% or less by the end of this year.

Yet in the past week, senior central bank leaders acknowledged inflation could remain high well into 2022 because of ongoing shortages of crucial business supplies and even labor.

The Chair says all that inflation is related to “supply constraints meeting very strong demand….  It’s very difficult to say how big those effects will be in the meantime or how long they will last.”

Funny, not a word in the Chair’s remarks about the $4 trillion the Fed has digitally printed in the last 18 months.  This is an ideal time for you to review the steps you have taken to prepare for de-dollarization and rising inflation.  Consult with a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver specialist today.

Watch Silver Demand Grow

Thanks to vital applications in technology and consumer connectivity, expect industrial silver demand to grow ten percent over the next few years.

That is according to the new report, “Silver and Global Connectivity,” published by the Silver Institute, a trade association. 

From the report: “With the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, silver is a component in almost all electronic devices we use daily. But silver isn’t just vital today; the next generation of technological advancements, especially those related to global connectivity expansion, will rely on the white metal’s inherent properties throughout the 21st century.  As a result, the use of silver in electronics and electrical applications (excluding photovoltaics) is forecast to rise from 224 million ounces in 2020 to 246 million ounces in 2025, reflecting a 10 percent increase, underscoring silver’s role in emerging technologies.”

The Internet of Things – basically physical objects like buildings, machines, wearables, traffic control systems, your home appliances and much more – is growing fast.  The interconnectivity it demands depends on silver in circuit boards.

5G communications networks will be responsible for increased silver usage.  “For example, a network carrier, such as AT&T, Telefónica or Vodafone, will reportedly need at least 400 more transmitters in an area compared to current 4G towers.”

Over the next ten years, the report highlights growing silver demand for radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags, which track and monitor goods and inventory. 

The report also highlights burgeoning silver demand in the automotive industry and aviation industries:

  • “Forty percent of a vehicle’s cost is accounted for by electronics, a substantial increase from historical levels: in 1990 this number was just 15 percent.  Silver is used extensively in electrical contacts throughout vehicles’ electronic systems in switches, relays, connectors, breakers, and fuses. Silver is used in automotive glass to defog and defrost the windows…” 
  • “A rapidly growing subsector of the aviation industry for silver demand growth is unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), commonly referred to as drones. Almost 900,000 recreational and commercial UAS (weighing more than 0.55 pounds or 250 grams) are registered with the FAA as of September 2021. These are finding applications within a wide range of industries including construction, fire monitoring, insurance, utility, and law enforcement. For example, telecoms and aviation industries use drones for beyond-visual line-of-sight capabilities. Drones mapping and surveying, and aiding in visual inspections, currently account for the majority of commercial drone applications….”
  • “Connectivity is critical to the successful deployment of drones in all of these commercial activities for the direct control of the drone itself, for the feedback from the drone of any collected data, and for the monitoring of its payload.”

These applications will provide a rising floor under silver prices in the years ahead.  But as our readers know, it is the world’s awakening to silver as a monetary commodity in the developing financial and monetary crisis that we expect will drive the price of silver to unimagined heights.

Scandal at the Fed!

Is anyone surprised?

Insider trading practices that are rightly being called scandalous have led to the resignations of the presidents of the Federal Reserve banks of Dallas and Boston. 

But they are not among the greatest of the Federal Reserve’s scandals.

Both Eric Rosengren, head of the Boston Fed, and Robert Kaplan head of the Dallas Fed, announced their resignations this week after disclosures of their extensive trading in stocks that were the beneficiaries of Fed interventions. 

It is not the first scandal at the Fed.  And it is certainly not the biggest. According to Ron Paul, that title goes to the Fed for its “impoverishment of ordinary Americans.”

That is the result of inflationary monetary policies, says the former Congressman and presidential candidate:

Rising prices that diminish the average American’s standard of living are not the only result of the Fed’s manipulation of the money supply. The manipulation distorts economic signals, producing results including booms, bubbles, and busts.

Inflation has always benefited the well-connected elites who receive the Fed’s newly created money before the new money causes widespread price increases. The true motivation behind Fed policies was revealed by former Fed official Andrew Huszar in 2013. Huszar, writing for the Wall Street Journal, confirmed that quantitative easing kept stock prices high, instead of helping Americans struggling with the aftereffects of the 2008 meltdown.

Other beneficiaries of the Fed are big-spending politicians. The Federal Reserve’s purchase of federal debt instruments keeps the federal government’s debt servicing costs manageable. This is why, despite Chairman Powell’s recent suggestion that the Fed will soon begin “tapering” its purchases of Treasuries, the Fed is unlikely to significantly reduce its purchase of Treasuries or allow interest rates to significantly increase.

The destruction of 93 percent of the dollar’s purchasing power with these inflationary practices is scandalous enough for one institution.  But another Fed scandal involves risking the solvency of the American people by extending trillions of dollars of credit and loans to favored banks, including foreign banks, during the Panic of 2008.  The Fed became almost militant in seeking to keep these loans concealed from the American people.

Little wonder that Dr. Paul lists Fed secrecy as another major scandal, citing “Congress’ refusal to pass the Audit the Fed bill and let the American people know the truth about the Fed’s operations. Audit the Fed authorizes a Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit of the Fed’s dealing with foreign governments and central banks, the Fed’s discount window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits, and open market transactions. Audit the Fed would finally reveal the truth about the Fed’s operations.”

There are countless potential Fed scandals over its century-plus of existence that will never be fully revealed.  Anyone with inside knowledge of interest rate decisions from the Fed’s Open Market Committee would be in a position to make fortunes in the bond markets.  But you don’t suppose the Fed, or its officials, would ever be doing secret favors for the crony banks that created the Fed to serve its interests in the first place, do you?

Yet a clear leak of insider information in 2012 to a private investor newsletter resulted in an investigation.  Yet after six months of investigating itself, the Fed could not find who leaked the confidential information. 

And by the way, we have White House tapes revealing President Nixon and the chairman of the Fed coordinating Fed policy to help assure Nixon’s reelection in 1972.

The Fed’s history may be thick with criminal malfeasance.  But it should also be beyond dispute that it has established a long track record of policy failures, from the Great Depression and Great Recession to currency destruction and clueless interest rate manipulation. Now it is clear, with Fed official’s cavalier treatment of their ethical obligations and with what in the private sector would be considered insider trading, we would be better off without the Fed.

Beware the Stock Market Bear!

Warnings about a steep stock market sell-off are piling up.

Morgan Stanley is cautioning its clients about a plunge of more than 20 percent.  CNBC recently surveyed four hundred chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money. Seventy-six percent of the respondents said now is a time to be “very conservative” in the stock market.

Investment legend Jim Rogers is warning now of the worst bear market of his lifetime.   

“Nearly every government,” says Rogers, “every central bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money.  And borrowing and spending huge amounts of money.  It has never happened like this in the history of the world, never in recorded history have we seen so much excess…. Be worried.”

So where to turn during what Roger says will be the worst bear market of his lifetime? 

“Silver – I own silver – is down 60 percent from its all-time highs,” says Rogers.  “Look out the window.  What do we know that is down 60 percent from its all-time highs?” Today much of the investment world is looking at problems in China.  No one can know how the fallout from China’s Evergrande credit crisis will spread.  “These things snowball,” says Rogers.  “They start where we’re not looking.  It may have already started.”

But one need only factor in US problems, a debt ceiling standoff, massive new spending  initiatives, and growth issues, to recognize a dangerous environment for stocks.  More important still is the troublesome return of inflation.  Indeed, another survey, this of clients of Swiss banking giant UBS Group list hyperinflation as their top economic concern.  Gold and silver stand out as go-to refuges in an era of systemic risk, just as they were when the failures of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers brought on the mortgage meltdown and the Great Recession and set gold marching higher for three straight years.

But one need only factor in US problems, a debt ceiling standoff, massive new spending  initiatives, and growth issues, to recognize a dangerous environment for stocks.  More important still is the troublesome return of inflation.  Indeed, another survey, this of clients of Swiss banking giant UBS Group list hyperinflation as their top economic concern.  Gold and silver stand out as go-to refuges in an era of systemic risk, just as they were when the failures of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers brought on the mortgage meltdown and the Great Recession and set gold marching higher for three straight years.

There is a Lot of Financial Risk Wrapped Up in That Evergrande Burrito!

In China, local government officials are buckling up for what could be a bumpy ride in Evergrande Group’s insolvency.

Evergrande is a Chinese real estate developer that, riding the country’s property bubble, has amassed $305 billion in outstanding debt that it is now unable to service. 

A default of such a gargantuan borrower has the potential of spreading across the land and indeed beyond China.  A substantial amount of the company’s debt is denominated in US dollars.  The damage cascades far and wide when a debtor like Evergrande fails to pay its creditors, who then, in turn, are unable to meet their obligations to other companies, suppliers, and employees, who then fail to meet their own payments.  The failure of Lehman Brothers figured prominently in the housing market collapse that cost millions of Americans their homes just over a decade ago.

The world’s financial markets are much more highly leveraged today than they were in 2008.  And Evergrande is much bigger than.

China’s central party government is calling on local governments and state-owned agencies to be prepared to deal with the fallout from Evergrande’s expected collapse.

Whether such measures will be sufficient to contain the crisis or if it will spread like a Wuhan contagion remains to be seen.  But already, the prospects of depressed real estate development in China have set the price of iron ore tumbling.

The crisis comes on the back of the existing Covid economic stress and the Fed’s new inflation burden. 

A report from Reuters on Evergrande wraps up with a report from typical Chinese workers on its impact.  “At an eerily quiet construction site in eastern China, worker Li Hongjun said Evergrande’s crisis meant he will soon run out of food while Christina Xie, who works in the southern city of Shenzhen, feared Evergrande had swallowed her savings.”

“‘It’s all my savings. I was planning to use it for me and my partner’s old age,’ said Xie. ‘Evergrande is one of China’s biggest real estate companies … my consultant told me the product was guaranteed.’”

Of course, he did.

The only global financial instrument that is not dependent on someone else’s promise or performance is gold.  Physical gold that you own yourself has no counter-party risk.

Gold needs no guarantee.  It guarantees itself. Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metals professional today.

More Big Brother

No wonder people seek the privacy of owning precious metals!

This is an update to our commentary two weeks ago in which we described the Biden administration’s total financial surveillance as becoming quite serious.

“Not only is Big Brother watching you,” we wrote, “he is also getting bigger every day. “

In its most recent budget proposal, the US Treasury Department has proposed requiring financial institutions to report to it money coming into or going out of accounts of only $600 or more. 

Politifact describes the proposal this way: “If you had at least $600 in your bank account, the bank would be required to report the amounts of any debits or credits to that account to the IRS.  If the debits and credits that flow through the account add up to at least $600 — including deposited paychecks or electronic payments through smartphone apps tied to the account — those totals would have to be reported, too.”

The government already makes intrusive and burdensome demands under the Bank Secrecy Act, including so-called “suspicious persons reports” to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

The IRS has a history of failing to protect private information.  It has a history of data breaches and the illicit use of its records on citizens.  The new rules threaten to expose people to more abuses before its prior abuses have been addressed.

gold and silver investments

The State ceaselessly lobbies for wider snooping authority, camouflaging its efforts as something essential to “get drug dealers” and other criminals.  But in practice the measures allow illicit snooping on people who are acting prudently in trying to keep their affairs private in an era of identity theft, widespread account hacking, and data breaches.  Meanwhile, the drug crisis that the measures are said to address simply get bigger each year.  In 2020, US fentanyl deaths jumped 30 percent from the year before, to 93,000, while the border which those drugs enter the country remains porous.

The proposed new measures are another addition to the government’s war on cash, an attempt to have veto power over individual autonomy.  It is another tool in creating a “social credit system” like that in China in which the people are made to acquiesce to actions of the State and in which dissent is quashed.

In addition, the Treasury’s proposal adds substantial burdens on businesses, making them bear the additional expense of endless petty record keeping and reporting.

Yet even as the authorities hope to increase their surveillance of the people, their own ranks grow thick with abuse.  Only recently have we learned that the president of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, with firsthand knowledge of, and hands-on influence over non-public, market-moving policies, was nevertheless speculating to the tune of tens of millions of dollars of individual stocks and highly leveraged financial instruments.

We know as well that Fed chairman Jerome Powell owned the same type of municipal bonds that the Fed was driving higher by purchasing them in the open market.

The stench of cronyism, corruption, and plain, ordinary mismanagement wafts from the decaying monetary system even as it grows more intrusive by the hour. 

No wonder informed people are moving assets out of it and into gold and silver.

Wobbling Debt Structure

“The most insane accumulation of debt… ever imagined!”

Total world debt is now approaching $300 trillion.  And it continues to grow at a breathtaking pace.

The Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor reports that the world’s wobbly debt structure grew by $4.8 trillion in the second quarter of this year to total $296 trillion.

The report totals government, household, and corporate and bank debt.

There have been almost 50 sovereign nation bond defaults since 2000.  At least a half-dozen countries are in default today. 

As for the US, former Reagan budget director David Stockman says, “They [Federal Reserve policymakers] have fostered the most insane accumulation of debt in all sectors of the US economy ever imagined, even as they have staked their credibility on a lowflation/transitory inflation thesis that is getting blown to smithereens by the day.’

With the world is awash in debt, much of it unpayable, it must be noted that it rests dangerously on a base of very little real liquidity.  Stated differently, the debt structure is like an inverted pyramid, an enormous mass of debt all balancing precariously on a teeny-tiny tip of gold, which is real liquidity, real money.   Be sure you have a base of gold (and silver) to support your financial structure in the tumultuous days ahead.  Speak with a Republic Monetary Exchange precious metal professional to review your portfolio today.

gold charts up

Notes and Quotes for Gold Investors

Rising Prices, More Gov Borrowing, Illusory Growth, Inadequate Cost of Living Adjustments.  And So It Goes!

“The last 50 years is the first time we’ve seen such a broad upswing in the global price level across multiple countries.”

  • Jim Reid, Chief Credit Strategist, Deutsche Bank

  • “A new CNN poll finds that 74% of U.S. adults now say they are ‘very or somewhat angry’ about the way things are going in the U.S. today — that includes 88% of Republicans, 70% of independents and even 67% of Democrats. But wait, there’s more.

    “Another 69% of U.S. adults now say that things are going ‘pretty or very badly’ in the country these days — that includes 91% of Republicans, 72% of independents and 49% of Democrats.”

  • CNN

  • “Prices of goods online have now risen for an unprecedented 15 consecutive months, following what was a historical period of declines, according to a new report from Adobe Digital Insights.

    “Inflation is hitting categories including pet products, nonprescription drugs, apparel, furniture and flower arrangements, the report said….

    “The price gains are happening during a period that normally sees prices drop, Adobe pointed out in its report. Retailers tend to use heavy promotions to clear out excess merchandise at the end of the summer and to win customer loyalty as they complete their back-to-school shopping.

    “Not this year.”

  • CNBC

  • “Global food prices were up 33% in August from a year earlier with vegetable oil, grains and meat on the rise, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show. And it’s not likely to get better as extreme weather, soaring freight and fertilizer costs, shipping bottlenecks and labor shortages compound the problem. Dwindling foreign currency reserves are also hampering the ability of some nations to import food.

    “Adjusted for inflation and annualized, costs are already higher now than for almost anytime in the past six decades….”

  • Bloomberg

  • “[Any]economic growth we’re seeing isn’t really economic growth. It’s just spending funded by massive amounts of tools and devices The Fed has used.

    “I don’t think the history book will say inflation was transitory.”

  • Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Founder

  • “The United States borrowed over $2.7 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2021, including $173 billion in August….

    “’We’ve borrowed $247 billion per month so far this year,’ said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, ‘a staggering amount that would have previously been unthinkable.’”

  • CRFB

  • ‘Social Security Cost of Living Allowance for 2022 to be Near 5.8%, Could Match 2009, Biggest since 1982.

    “While this type of COLA will provide some relief from the price increases that have been gnawing away at fixed incomes, it will still be insufficient to compensate for the surging costs that individuals may face in housing and other major expenses, depending on their situation and location.”


  • Social Insecurity

    Gold or a Government Program that is Headed Towards Insolvency?

    What do you think is more reliable for your retirement?  Gold and silver, which are not dependent on politicians’ empty promises?

    Or the government’s Social Security program?

    If you answered Social Security, here are a couple of things you should consider.

    First, Social Security is only 13 years from insolvency.  The new report from Social Security’s trustees says that the old age and survivor insurance trust fund – that’s the main component of the program – will be insolvent (that’s another world for bankrupt) by 2034.  That is a year earlier than had been expected.

    Second, the money you have paid in all your working life has already been spent.  It is gone.  There is no money in the trust fund.  Your congressmen spent it.  So even if things are jiggered around the edges with later eligibility ages and some means-testing, the problem of Social Security insolvency doesn’t go away.  Congress will have to figure out somewhere to get the money.  But there really is nowhere to get it.  Already the US has an explicit debt nearing $30 trillion.  That debt gets “paid” first. 

    Third, Social Security was always actuarially sketchy.  It was part of the great electoral game of seducing the people with promises that they could live at someone else’s expense.  But the numbers don’t work.  For example, in 1945 there were 41 workers paying into the system for everyone drawing benefits.  Today the load falls heavily on fewer workers per retiree.  There are only 2.7 people expected to pay for one retiree.  Before long it will be only 2 workers per retiree.

    That is only part of the actuarial picture.  Americans live longer and therefore draw retirement benefits longer than they did at the program’s inception.  The life expectancy of a 65-year-old today is 20 more years.  In 1940 it was just 14 years. 

    Roughly 3 million baby boomers retire each year.  And their Social Security is just one of the burdens that they expect Millenials and others to pay.  Medicare is another.

    There is another name for schemes like this, in which paying returns to some investors today depends on bringing in new victims tomorrow. 

    It is a Ponzi scheme.

    There will be an intergenerational war over this.  While the economy is growing by leaps and bounds as it did in the 1950s and 1960s, nobody much notices unfair burden-sharing.  But in an era of shrinking expectations, it becomes social dynamite. 

    Of course, the government’s go-to solution to problems like this is money printing.  But what good is the monthly Social Security check they promised when the price of grocery and heating and cooling your house has gone through the roof?

    We think it is only prudent to face the problems squarely and make sure you provide for your own retirement with money the government can’t just print into worthlessness.

    Let a Republic Monetary Exchange gold and silver professional help you chart a course to retirement security with real money.

    Is Inflation “Transient”?

    Even Establishment Figures Aren’t Buying It!

    Producer prices in the month of July rose 0.7 percent.  Over the past 12 months, producer price have risen 8.3 percent. 

    The Federal Reserve’s insistence that the inflation we are experiencing is merely transient is cracking up on the reefs of widespread disbelief. 

    Even leading establishment economists find it hard to believe. 

    We might ask how inflation can be transient when the Fed is still printing $120 billion a month.  A long time ago Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman pointed out that there was a lag, perhaps 12 – 18 months, between when the new money enters the economy and when it shows up in consumer prices.

    So, today’s higher consumer prices were created a long-time ago, just as we will be experiencing the effects of today’s money printing in higher prices way down the road.

    That hardly sounds like today’s inflation is transient. 

    But even leading establishment figures are having a hard time buying the Fed’s party line.  Most were initially silent, but some are now starting to speak up.

    There are few more establishment figures than Larry Summers.  He is a former World Bank and US Treasury official and senior economic advisor in the Obama administration. 

    Summers recently tweeted this: “Every time you hear that inflation is transitory remember that double house price inflation hasn’t yet shown up in the indexes. Housing represents 40 percent of the core CPI.”

    Translation:  Home and rental prices are about to drive consumer inflation numbers even higher.

    Then there is Ken Rogoff.  He’s a former IMF and Fed economist, now at Harvard.  He has been pointing to the “unsettling parallels,” with the “perfect storm” that produced the high inflation of the 1970s and today’s conditions.

    And Niall Ferguson.  His resume includes the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Harvard, and the London School of Economics.   Ferguson says, ““How long is transitory…?  My sense is that we are not heading for the 1970s, but we could be rerunning the late 1960s, when famously the Fed chair then, McChesney Martin, lost control of inflation expectations.”

    In short, whatever the Fed is selling, they aren’t buying any.  And neither should you!

    Biden’s Total Financial Surveillance

    It’s starting to get serious!

    We have strongly urged our friends and clients to have some assets off the grid.  See here and here.

    It has always been the prudent thing to do.  But now it is becoming imperative!

    Reason Magazine reports:

    Imagine living in a world where every one of your non-cash financial transactions—a restaurant meal, a Venmo transfer to a friend, maybe some bitcoin bought on the dips—was automatically reported to a beefed-up, audit-hungry IRS.

    That dystopia will become a reality if President Joe Biden gets his way. Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and key Capitol Hill allies such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) are pushing a vast, intrusive financial surveillance system in the name of closing the “tax gap.”

    Here’s a snippet from A Treasury Department press release:  “The Administration’s proposals call for significantly increasing the IRS budget, specifically $80 billion of investment over the coming ten years in enforcement, IT, and taxpayer services generating an estimated $320 billion in additional tax collections over the next ten years.”

    The Treasury is justly concerned that the plan, “The American Families Plan Tax Compliance Agenda,” will drive people to engage in more cash transactions.  That means that the government’s war on cash, already underway, will have to be shifted into overdrive.  As we wrote a year ago, “Cash is anonymous.  So, Washington doesn’t like it.  In fact, you may have noticed that Washington wants full access to everything you do, while it wants everything it does to be secret.”

    Gold and silver are anonymous as well, which is intolerable to authoritarian governments.  We always recommend that people keep assets off the grid, especially in this age of rising crime, large-scale cyber hacking, and snooping big tech firms. 

    More on the Biden plan from Reason:

    The administration’s proposed “comprehensive financial account reporting regime” would dramatically increase the types of financial institutions and transactions exposed to the feds’ prying eyes. “All business and personal accounts from financial institutions, including bank, loan, and investment accounts,” would be forced to “report gross inflows and outflows” to the IRS. And not just bank accounts: The dragnet would now include PayPal, settlement companies, and “crypto-asset exchanges,” for starters.

    The new domestic surveillance program, which requires congressional approval, is one prong of a tripartite strategy for transforming the entire global financial system into a harmonious, haven-free collection funnel to the IRS. The second part, which has taken up the bulk of Biden’s multilateral diplomacy thus far, is getting the industrialized world to agree on a global minimum corporate tax of 15 percent while setting up a system to prevent multinational companies from registering their profits in the lowest-tax jurisdictions.

    Not only is Big Brother watching you, he is also getting bigger every day. It is only prudent to want to protect your privacy in this digital age.  Gold and silver are the single best means of getting your wealth off the grid and away from hackers, identity thieves, and other prying eyes.