Sample Gold Forecasts
As students of monetary history, we have an advantage in the gold price forecasting game. Based on abundant precedent we can simply say that at some point people will no longer refer to the dollar value of the gold they own; they will instead just refer to the number of ounces they own.
And what does that tell you about what will have happened to the unbacked, fiat, paper or digital, debt-laden Federal Reserve dollar?
In the meantime, here are some observations about gold prices making the rounds in the financial press.
GOLDMAN SACHS SEES $2,700 GOLD PRICE THIS YEAR!
From Investing.com:
Goldman Sachs underscores the significance of central bank gold purchases, which have seen a threefold increase since mid-2022.
While the Chinese market is sensitive to price fluctuations, the brokerage sees structural changes creating an “unshakeable bull market” for gold in China.
“We still see very significant value in long gold positions, and maintain our bullish $2,700 forecast (a 12% increase over current spot prices) for 2025,” they added.
MORGAN STANLEY SEES GOLD PRICE AT $2,650 BY THE FOURTH QUARTER!
From Investing.com:
Gold is approaching its record highs, rising 50% from its 2022 lows and 25% since mid-February.
According to Morgan Stanley commodity strategists, this surge is driven primarily by the physical market, with central bank purchases doubling in 2022/23 compared to previous trends. Retail buying has also increased this year, especially in China, where bar and coin demand is very strong….
While the recent rally has been driven by physical factors, strategists argue that financial flows will drive the next leg higher. They note this shift is “starting to come through,” predicting that gold prices could reach $2,650/oz by Q4 2024.
We note that the fourth quarter is just over two months away. Our reader will also remember our report this time last year that Bank of America analysts called for silver to reach $35 an ounce this year. That number is now well within reach. At the same time they forecast $50 silver in the medium turn.
J.P. MORGAN SAYS $2,500 NEXT QUARTER; $2,600 IN 2025! MAY OVERSHOOT THOSE TARGETS!
“Amid fraying geopolitics, increased sanctioning and de-dollarization, we observe an increased appetite to buy real assets including gold,” said Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
“Across all metals, we have the highest conviction on a bullish medium-term forecast for both gold and silver over the course of 2024 and into the first half of 2025…. “The direction of travel is still higher over the coming quarters, forecasting an average price of $2,500/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $2,600/oz in 2025, with risk still skewed toward an earlier overshoot,” Shearer said.
We note that J.P. Morgan is an arm of JPMorganChase, the largest bank in the US and the world’s largest bank by market capitalization. It’s chairman Jaime Dimon is on the shortlist for Treasury Secretary in a Trump administration.
We also note that it is unusual, and we think a very bullish indicator when analysts warn that their forecasts for higher prices may actually be too low.
GOLD TO $2,700 NEXT YEAR SAYS UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT!
From BNN Bloomberg:
Mark Haefele, CIO for UBS Global Wealth Management, expects the bull market in gold to continue with gold rising to $2,700 an ounce next year.
We’ve seen a lot of central banks buying in gold, which we think is going to continue because to some degree the dollar and US financial system was kind of weaponized around Ukraine and central banks realized they may want to have some alternatives,” he said.
We take special note that the Bloomberg story points out the World Gold Council Survey finds about 20 central banks expect to raise their gold holdings. That is a record high.
$15,000 or $27,000 GOLD?
Be sure to check in with Republic Monetary Exchange’s blog often. Soon we will share the analysis of a noted gold expert who has raised his gold price forecast from $15,000 to $27,000! You will want to see his reasoning for this stunning forecast!
AND ONE MORE. THE TRAJECTORY OF AMERICA’S MONEY!
